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SLIDES . BY
John Loucks
St. Edward’s
University
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Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Chapter 5
Discrete Probability Distributions
.10
.20
.30
.40
0 1 2 3 4
Random Variables
Developing Discrete Probability Distributions
Expected Value and Variance
Binomial Probability
Distribution
Poisson Probability
Distribution
Hypergeometric Probability
Distribution
Bivariate Distributions, Covariance,
and Financial Portfolios
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
A random variable is a numerical description of the
outcome of an experiment.
Random Variables
A discrete random variable may assume either a
finite number of values or an infinite sequence of
values.
A continuous random variable may assume any
numerical value in an interval or collection of
intervals.
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Let x = number of TVs sold at the store in one day,
where x can take on 5 values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4)
Example: JSL Appliances
Discrete Random Variable
with a Finite Number of Values
We can count the TVs sold, and there is a finite
upper limit on the number that might be sold (which
is the number of TVs in stock).
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Let x = number of customers arriving in one day,
where x can take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . .
Discrete Random Variable
with an Infinite Sequence of Values
We can count the customers arriving, but there is
no finite upper limit on the number that might arrive.
Example: JSL Appliances
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Random Variables
Question
Random Variable x
Type
Family
size
x = Number of dependents
reported on tax return
Discrete
Distance from
home to store
x = Distance in miles from
home to the store site
Continuous
Own dog
or cat
x = 1 if own no pet;
= 2 if own dog(s) only;
= 3 if own cat(s) only;
= 4 if own dog(s) and cat(s)
Discrete
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
The probability distribution for a random variable
describes how probabilities are distributed over
the values of the random variable.
We can describe a discrete probability distribution
with a table, graph, or formula.
Discrete Probability Distributions
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Two types of discrete probability distributions will
be introduced.
First type: uses the rules of assigning probabilities
to experimental outcomes to determine probabilities
for each value of the random variable.
Discrete Probability Distributions
Second type: uses a special mathematical formula
to compute the probabilities for each value of the
random variable.
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
The probability distribution is defined by a
probability function, denoted by f(x), that provides
the probability for each value of the random variable.
The required conditions for a discrete probability
function are:
Discrete Probability Distributions
f(x) > 0
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Discrete Probability Distributions
There are three methods for assign probabilities to
random variables: classical method, subjective
method, and relative frequency method.
The use of the relative frequency method to develop
discrete probability distributions leads to what is
called an empirical discrete distribution.
example
on next slide
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
a tabular representation of the probability
distribution for TV sales was developed.
Using past data on TV sales, …
Number
Units Sold of Days
0 80
1 50
2 40
3 10
4 20
200
x f(x)
0 .40
1 .25
2 .20
3 .05
4 .10
1.00
80/200
Discrete Probability Distributions
Example: JSL Appliances
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
.10
.20
.30
.40
.50
0 1 2 3 4
Values of Random Variable x (TV sales)
Probability
Discrete Probability Distributions
Example: JSL Appliances
Graphical
representation
of probability
distribution
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Discrete Probability Distributions
In addition to tables and graphs, a formula that
gives the probability function, f(x), for every value
of x is often used to describe the probability
distributions.
Several discrete probability distributions specified
by formulas are the discrete-uniform, binomial,
Poisson, and hypergeometric distributions.
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
CLASSWORK/SUGGESTED PROBLEM
Page 231, Problem 10
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution
The discrete uniform probability distribution is the
simplest example of a discrete probability
distribution given by a formula.
The discrete uniform probability function is
f(x) = 1/n
where:
n = the number of values the random
variable may assume
the values of the
random variable
are equally likely
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Expected Value
The expected value, or mean, of a random variable
is a measure of its central location.
The expected value is a weighted average of the
values the random variable may assume. The
weights are the probabilities.
The expected value does not have to be a value the
random variable can assume.
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Variance and Standard Deviation
The variance summarizes the variability in the
values of a random variable.
The variance is a weighted average of the squared
deviations of a random variable from its mean.
The weights are the probabilities.
-
ined as the
positive square root of the variance.
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
expected number of TVs sold in a day
x f(x) xf(x)
0 .40 .00
1 .25 .25
2 .20 .40
3 .05 .15
4 .10 .40
E(x) = 1.20
Expected Value
Example: JSL Appliances
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
0
1
2
3
4
-1.2
-0.2
0.8
1.8
2.8
1.44
0.04
0.64
3.24
7.84
.40
.25
.20
.05
.10
.576
.010
.128
.162
.784
x -
(x -
f(x)
(x -
Variance of daily sales = s 2 = 1.660
x
TVs
squared
Standard deviation of daily sales = 1.2884 TVs
Variance
Example: JSL Appliances
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
CLASSWORK/SUGGESTED PROBLEM
Page 235, Problem 19
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
Bivariate Distributions
A probability distribution involving two random
variables is called a bivariate probability distribution.
Each outcome of a bivariate experiment consists of
two values, one for each random variable.
When dealing with bivariate probability distributions,
we are often interested in the relationship between
the random variables.
Example: rolling a pair of dice
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
A company asked 200 of its employees how they
rated their benefit package and job satisfaction. The
crosstabulation below shows the ratings data.
A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution
Benefits
Package (x)
1 2 3
Total
1
2
3
28 26 4
58
98
44
52 78 70
Total
200
22 42 34
Job Satisfaction (y)
2 10 32
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
The bivariate empirical discrete probabilities for
benefits rating and job satisfaction are shown below.
Benefits
Package (x)
1 2 3
Total
1
2
3
.14 .13 .02
.29
.49
.22
.26 .39 .35
Total
1.00
.11 .21 .17
Job Satisfaction (y)
.01 .05 .16
A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
xf(x)xf(x)x - E(x)(x - E(x))2(x - E(x))2f(x)10.290.29-
0.930.86490.25082120.490.98
0.070.00490.00240130.220.661.071.14490.251878E(x)
=1.93Var(x) =0.505100
A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution
Expected Value and Variance for Benefits Package, x
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
yf(y)yf(y)y - E(y)(y - E(y))2(y - E(y))2f(y)10.260.26-
1.091.18810.30890620.390.78-0.090.00810.00315930.351.05
0.910.82810.289835E(y) =2.09Var(y) =0.601900
A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution
Expected Value and Variance for Job Satisfaction, y
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
sf(s)sf(s)s - E(s)(s - E(s))2(s - E(s))2f(s)20.140.28-
2.024.08040.57125630.240.72-1.021.04040.24969640.240.96-
0.020.00040.00096050.221.100.980.96040.21137660.160.961.9
83.92040.627264E(s) =4.02Var(s) =1.660552
Expected Value and Variance for Bivariate Distrib.
A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
Varxy = [Var(x + y) – Var(x) – Var(y)]/2
Varxy = [1.660552 – 0.5051 – 0.6019]/2 = 0.276776
A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution
Covariance for Random Variables x and y
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
Correlation Between Variables x and y
A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
Binomial Probability Distribution
Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does
not change from trial to trial.
4. The trials are independent.
2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible
on each trial.
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n
identical trials.
stationarity
assumption
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Binomial Probability Distribution
Our interest is in the number of successes
occurring in the n trials.
We let x denote the number of successes
occurring in the n trials.
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
where:
x = the number of successes
p = the probability of a success on one trial
n = the number of trials
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
n! = n(n – 1)(n – 2) ….. (2)(1)
Binomial Probability Distribution
Binomial Probability Function
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Binomial Probability Distribution
Binomial Probability Function
Probability of a particular
sequence of trial outcomes
with x successes in n trials
Number of experimental
outcomes providing exactly
x successes in n trials
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Binomial Probability Distribution
Example: Evans Electronics
Evans Electronics is concerned about a low
retention rate for its employees. In recent years,
management has seen a turnover of 10% of the
hourly employees annually.
Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is
the probability that 1 of them will leave the company
this year?
Thus, for any hourly employee chosen at random,
management estimates a probability of 0.1 that the
person will not be with the company next year.
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Binomial Probability Distribution
Example: Evans Electronics
The probability of the first employee leaving and the
second and third employees staying, denoted (S, F, F),
is given by
p(1 – p)(1 – p)
With a .10 probability of an employee leaving on any
one trial, the probability of an employee leaving on
the first trial and not on the second and third trials is
given by
(.10)(.90)(.90) = (.10)(.90)2 = .081
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Binomial Probability Distribution
Example: Evans Electronics
Two other experimental outcomes also result in one
success and two failures. The probabilities for all
three experimental outcomes involving one success
follow.
Experimental
Outcome
(S, F, F)
(F, S, F)
(F, F, S)
Probability of
Experimental Outcome
p(1 – p)(1 – p) = (.1)(.9)(.9) = .081
(1 – p)p(1 – p) = (.9)(.1)(.9) = .081
(1 – p)(1 – p)p = (.9)(.9)(.1) = .081
Total = .243
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Binomial Probability Distribution
Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1
Example: Evans Electronics
Using the
probability
function
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Binomial Probability Distribution
1st Worker
2nd Worker
3rd Worker
x
Prob.
Leaves
(.1)
Stays
(.9)
3
2
0
2
2
Leaves (.1)
Leaves (.1)
S (.9)
Stays (.9)
Stays (.9)
S (.9)
S (.9)
S (.9)
L (.1)
L (.1)
L (.1)
L (.1)
.0010
.0090
.0090
.7290
.0090
1
1
.0810
.0810
.0810
1
Example: Evans Electronics
Using a tree diagram
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Binomial Probabilities
and Cumulative Probabilities
With modern calculators and the capability of
statistical software packages, such tables are
almost unnecessary.
These tables can be found in some statistics
textbooks.
Statisticians have developed tables that give
probabilities and cumulative probabilities for a
binomial random variable.
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Using Tables of Binomial Probabilities
Binomial Probability Distribution
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
Binomial Probability Distribution
- p)
Expected Value
Variance
Standard Deviation
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Binomial Probability Distribution
E(x) = np = 3(.1) = .3 employees out of 3
Var(x) = np(1 – p) = 3(.1)(.9) = .27
Expected Value
Variance
Standard Deviation
Example: Evans Electronics
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
CLASSWORK/SUGGESTED PROBLEM
Page 247, Problem 32
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
A Poisson distributed random variable is often
useful in estimating the number of occurrences
over a specified interval of time or space
It is a discrete random variable that may assume
an infinite sequence of values (x = 0, 1, 2, . . . ).
Poisson Probability Distribution
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Examples of Poisson distributed random variables:
the number of knotholes in 14 linear feet of
pine board
the number of vehicles arriving at a toll
booth in one hour
Poisson Probability Distribution
Bell Labs used the Poisson distribution to model
the arrival of phone calls.
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Poisson Probability Distribution
Two Properties of a Poisson Experiment
The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any
interval is independent of the occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any other interval.
The probability of an occurrence is the same
for any two intervals of equal length.
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Poisson Probability Function
Poisson Probability Distribution
where:
x = the number of occurrences in an interval
f(x) = the probability of x occurrences in an interval
e = 2.71828
x! = x(x – 1)(x – 2) . . . (2)(1)
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Poisson Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Function
In practical applications, x will eventually become
large enough so that f(x) is approximately zero
and the probability of any larger values of x
becomes negligible.
Since there is no stated upper limit for the number
of occurrences, the probability function f(x) is
applicable for values x = 0, 1, 2, … without limit.
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
Poisson Probability Distribution
Example: Mercy Hospital
Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy
Hospital at the average rate of 6 per hour on
weekend evenings.
What is the probability of 4 arrivals in 30 minutes
on a weekend evening?
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Poisson Probability Distribution
-hour, x = 4
Example: Mercy Hospital
Using the
probability
function
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Poisson Probability Distribution
Poisson Probabilities
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Number of Arrivals in 30 Minutes
Probability
Actually,
the sequence
continues:
11, 12, 13 …
Example: Mercy Hospital
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Poisson Probability Distribution
A property of the Poisson distribution is that
the mean and variance are equal.
m = s 2
‹#›
Slide
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scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
Poisson Probability Distribution
Variance for Number of Arrivals
During 30-Minute Periods
m = s 2 = 3
Example: Mercy Hospital
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
‹#›
CLASSWORK/SUGGESTED PROBLEM
Page 251, Problem 42
‹#›
Slide
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
scanned, copied
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
whole or in part.
xy
xy
xy
s
r
ss
=
0.50510.7107038
x
s
==
0.60190.7758221
y
s
==
0.2767760.526095
xy
s
==
0.526095
0.954
0.7107038(0.7758221)
xy
r
==
n x.05.10.15.20.25.30.35.40.45.50
30.8574.7290.6141.5120.4219.3430.2746.2160.1664.1250
1.1354.2430.3251.3840.4219.4410.4436.4320.4084.3750
2.0071.0270.0574.0960.1406.1890.2389.2880.3341.3750
3.0001.0010.0034.0080.0156.0270.0429.0640.0911.1250
p
Sheet1pnx.05.10.15.20.25.30.35.40.45.5030.8574.7290.6141.51
20.4219.3430.2746.2160.1664.12501.1354.2430.3251.3840.421
9.4410.4436.4320.4084.37502.0071.0270.0574.0960.1406.1890.
2389.2880.3341.37503.0001.0010.0034.0080.0156.0270.0429.0
640.0911.1250
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433(2.71
BUSINESS STATISTICS
Course Materials
Anderson, D. R., Sweeney, D. J., Williams, T. A., Camm, J.,
Cochran, J. (2015). Essentials of statistics for business and
economics (7th edition). South-Western Pub. ISBN #978-
1133629658.
Access to MS Excel software, with the Analysis ToolPak add-in
loaded. Apple users may be required to purchase StatTools, if
the add-ins are not available.
Formatting Requirements
Submission of homework assignments must be uploaded in a
single PDF file. Multiple files will not be opened. Each
problem must be clearly numbered and the problems must be in
numeric order. Your work must be formatted in such a way that
all of one problem is presented before the next problem begins.
(It often happens that when a student saves an Excel file as a
PDF, there are multiple pages and problems between the first
half of a problem and the second half. Work down the Excel
page, not across. Also, if you have done your work in Excel
using a new worksheet per problem, saving your work in a PDF
will often save only the first page. Check your formatting
before you submit.) Furthermore, all workshop assignments
must be submitted together and not in a piecemeal fashion. For
example, you may not submit problems 1 and 2 on Monday, then
3 and 4 on Tuesday, and finally problem 5 on Wednesday. You
must submit all five problems in one submission by the Sunday
deadline.
Week 3/Workshop Three
Assignment(s):
1. Read text: Chapter 5.
2. Read PowerPoint Slides for Chapter 5.
3. Work through suggested problems as directed in PowerPoint
slides.
4. Submit solutions to the following textbook problems Chapter
5: 9, 21, 33, 35, 43, & 45.
SLIDES . BYJohn LoucksSt. Edward’sUniver.docx

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SLIDES . BYJohn LoucksSt. Edward’sUniver.docx

  • 1. SLIDES . BY John Loucks St. Edward’s University . . . . . . . . . . .
  • 2. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Chapter 5 Discrete Probability Distributions .10 .20 .30 .40 0 1 2 3 4 Random Variables Developing Discrete Probability Distributions
  • 3. Expected Value and Variance Binomial Probability Distribution Poisson Probability Distribution Hypergeometric Probability Distribution Bivariate Distributions, Covariance, and Financial Portfolios ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› A random variable is a numerical description of the outcome of an experiment.
  • 4. Random Variables A discrete random variable may assume either a finite number of values or an infinite sequence of values. A continuous random variable may assume any numerical value in an interval or collection of intervals. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Let x = number of TVs sold at the store in one day, where x can take on 5 values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4) Example: JSL Appliances Discrete Random Variable with a Finite Number of Values We can count the TVs sold, and there is a finite
  • 5. upper limit on the number that might be sold (which is the number of TVs in stock). ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Let x = number of customers arriving in one day, where x can take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . . Discrete Random Variable with an Infinite Sequence of Values We can count the customers arriving, but there is no finite upper limit on the number that might arrive. Example: JSL Appliances
  • 6. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Random Variables Question Random Variable x Type Family size x = Number of dependents reported on tax return
  • 7. Discrete Distance from home to store x = Distance in miles from home to the store site Continuous Own dog or cat x = 1 if own no pet; = 2 if own dog(s) only; = 3 if own cat(s) only; = 4 if own dog(s) and cat(s) Discrete ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› The probability distribution for a random variable
  • 8. describes how probabilities are distributed over the values of the random variable. We can describe a discrete probability distribution with a table, graph, or formula. Discrete Probability Distributions ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Two types of discrete probability distributions will be introduced. First type: uses the rules of assigning probabilities to experimental outcomes to determine probabilities for each value of the random variable. Discrete Probability Distributions Second type: uses a special mathematical formula to compute the probabilities for each value of the random variable.
  • 9. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The probability distribution is defined by a probability function, denoted by f(x), that provides the probability for each value of the random variable. The required conditions for a discrete probability function are: Discrete Probability Distributions f(x) > 0
  • 10. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Discrete Probability Distributions There are three methods for assign probabilities to random variables: classical method, subjective method, and relative frequency method. The use of the relative frequency method to develop discrete probability distributions leads to what is called an empirical discrete distribution. example on next slide ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
  • 11. scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. a tabular representation of the probability distribution for TV sales was developed. Using past data on TV sales, … Number Units Sold of Days 0 80 1 50 2 40 3 10 4 20 200 x f(x) 0 .40 1 .25 2 .20 3 .05 4 .10 1.00 80/200 Discrete Probability Distributions Example: JSL Appliances
  • 12. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› .10 .20 .30 .40 .50 0 1 2 3 4 Values of Random Variable x (TV sales) Probability
  • 13. Discrete Probability Distributions Example: JSL Appliances Graphical representation of probability distribution ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
  • 14. ‹#› Discrete Probability Distributions In addition to tables and graphs, a formula that gives the probability function, f(x), for every value of x is often used to describe the probability distributions. Several discrete probability distributions specified by formulas are the discrete-uniform, binomial, Poisson, and hypergeometric distributions. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. CLASSWORK/SUGGESTED PROBLEM Page 231, Problem 10
  • 15. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution The discrete uniform probability distribution is the simplest example of a discrete probability distribution given by a formula. The discrete uniform probability function is f(x) = 1/n where: n = the number of values the random variable may assume the values of the random variable are equally likely
  • 16. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Expected Value The expected value, or mean, of a random variable is a measure of its central location. The expected value is a weighted average of the values the random variable may assume. The weights are the probabilities. The expected value does not have to be a value the random variable can assume.
  • 17. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Variance and Standard Deviation The variance summarizes the variability in the values of a random variable. The variance is a weighted average of the squared deviations of a random variable from its mean. The weights are the probabilities. - ined as the positive square root of the variance.
  • 18. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› expected number of TVs sold in a day x f(x) xf(x) 0 .40 .00 1 .25 .25 2 .20 .40 3 .05 .15 4 .10 .40 E(x) = 1.20 Expected Value Example: JSL Appliances ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
  • 19. or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› 0 1 2 3 4 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 1.8 2.8 1.44 0.04 0.64 3.24 7.84 .40 .25 .20 .05 .10 .576 .010 .128 .162 .784 x - (x -
  • 20. f(x) (x - Variance of daily sales = s 2 = 1.660 x TVs squared Standard deviation of daily sales = 1.2884 TVs Variance Example: JSL Appliances ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› CLASSWORK/SUGGESTED PROBLEM Page 235, Problem 19
  • 21. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Bivariate Distributions A probability distribution involving two random variables is called a bivariate probability distribution. Each outcome of a bivariate experiment consists of two values, one for each random variable. When dealing with bivariate probability distributions, we are often interested in the relationship between the random variables. Example: rolling a pair of dice ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
  • 22. scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. A company asked 200 of its employees how they rated their benefit package and job satisfaction. The crosstabulation below shows the ratings data. A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution Benefits Package (x) 1 2 3 Total 1 2 3 28 26 4 58 98 44 52 78 70 Total 200 22 42 34 Job Satisfaction (y) 2 10 32
  • 23. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The bivariate empirical discrete probabilities for benefits rating and job satisfaction are shown below. Benefits Package (x) 1 2 3 Total 1 2 3 .14 .13 .02 .29 .49 .22 .26 .39 .35 Total 1.00 .11 .21 .17 Job Satisfaction (y) .01 .05 .16
  • 24. A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. xf(x)xf(x)x - E(x)(x - E(x))2(x - E(x))2f(x)10.290.29- 0.930.86490.25082120.490.98 0.070.00490.00240130.220.661.071.14490.251878E(x) =1.93Var(x) =0.505100 A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution Expected Value and Variance for Benefits Package, x ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
  • 25. or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. yf(y)yf(y)y - E(y)(y - E(y))2(y - E(y))2f(y)10.260.26- 1.091.18810.30890620.390.78-0.090.00810.00315930.351.05 0.910.82810.289835E(y) =2.09Var(y) =0.601900 A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution Expected Value and Variance for Job Satisfaction, y ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. sf(s)sf(s)s - E(s)(s - E(s))2(s - E(s))2f(s)20.140.28- 2.024.08040.57125630.240.72-1.021.04040.24969640.240.96- 0.020.00040.00096050.221.100.980.96040.21137660.160.961.9 83.92040.627264E(s) =4.02Var(s) =1.660552 Expected Value and Variance for Bivariate Distrib. A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution
  • 26. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Varxy = [Var(x + y) – Var(x) – Var(y)]/2 Varxy = [1.660552 – 0.5051 – 0.6019]/2 = 0.276776 A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution Covariance for Random Variables x and y ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Correlation Between Variables x and y
  • 27. A Bivariate Discrete Probability Distribution ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Binomial Probability Distribution Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment 3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does not change from trial to trial. 4. The trials are independent. 2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible on each trial. 1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n
  • 28. identical trials. stationarity assumption ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Binomial Probability Distribution Our interest is in the number of successes occurring in the n trials. We let x denote the number of successes occurring in the n trials.
  • 29. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› where: x = the number of successes p = the probability of a success on one trial n = the number of trials f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials n! = n(n – 1)(n – 2) ….. (2)(1) Binomial Probability Distribution Binomial Probability Function
  • 30. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Binomial Probability Distribution Binomial Probability Function Probability of a particular sequence of trial outcomes with x successes in n trials Number of experimental outcomes providing exactly x successes in n trials ‹#›
  • 31. Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Binomial Probability Distribution Example: Evans Electronics Evans Electronics is concerned about a low retention rate for its employees. In recent years, management has seen a turnover of 10% of the hourly employees annually. Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is the probability that 1 of them will leave the company this year? Thus, for any hourly employee chosen at random, management estimates a probability of 0.1 that the person will not be with the company next year. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
  • 32. ‹#› Binomial Probability Distribution Example: Evans Electronics The probability of the first employee leaving and the second and third employees staying, denoted (S, F, F), is given by p(1 – p)(1 – p) With a .10 probability of an employee leaving on any one trial, the probability of an employee leaving on the first trial and not on the second and third trials is given by (.10)(.90)(.90) = (.10)(.90)2 = .081 ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#›
  • 33. Binomial Probability Distribution Example: Evans Electronics Two other experimental outcomes also result in one success and two failures. The probabilities for all three experimental outcomes involving one success follow. Experimental Outcome (S, F, F) (F, S, F) (F, F, S) Probability of Experimental Outcome p(1 – p)(1 – p) = (.1)(.9)(.9) = .081 (1 – p)p(1 – p) = (.9)(.1)(.9) = .081 (1 – p)(1 – p)p = (.9)(.9)(.1) = .081 Total = .243 ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
  • 34. whole or in part. ‹#› Binomial Probability Distribution Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1 Example: Evans Electronics Using the probability function ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#›
  • 35. Binomial Probability Distribution 1st Worker 2nd Worker 3rd Worker x Prob. Leaves (.1) Stays (.9) 3 2 0 2 2 Leaves (.1) Leaves (.1) S (.9) Stays (.9) Stays (.9)
  • 36. S (.9) S (.9) S (.9) L (.1) L (.1) L (.1) L (.1) .0010 .0090 .0090 .7290 .0090 1 1 .0810 .0810 .0810 1
  • 37. Example: Evans Electronics Using a tree diagram ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Binomial Probabilities and Cumulative Probabilities With modern calculators and the capability of statistical software packages, such tables are almost unnecessary. These tables can be found in some statistics textbooks. Statisticians have developed tables that give probabilities and cumulative probabilities for a binomial random variable.
  • 38. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Using Tables of Binomial Probabilities Binomial Probability Distribution
  • 39. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Binomial Probability Distribution - p) Expected Value Variance Standard Deviation ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
  • 40. ‹#› Binomial Probability Distribution E(x) = np = 3(.1) = .3 employees out of 3 Var(x) = np(1 – p) = 3(.1)(.9) = .27 Expected Value Variance Standard Deviation Example: Evans Electronics ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
  • 41. ‹#› CLASSWORK/SUGGESTED PROBLEM Page 247, Problem 32 ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. A Poisson distributed random variable is often useful in estimating the number of occurrences over a specified interval of time or space It is a discrete random variable that may assume an infinite sequence of values (x = 0, 1, 2, . . . ). Poisson Probability Distribution
  • 42. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Examples of Poisson distributed random variables: the number of knotholes in 14 linear feet of pine board the number of vehicles arriving at a toll booth in one hour Poisson Probability Distribution Bell Labs used the Poisson distribution to model the arrival of phone calls.
  • 43. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Poisson Probability Distribution Two Properties of a Poisson Experiment The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any interval is independent of the occurrence or nonoccurrence in any other interval. The probability of an occurrence is the same for any two intervals of equal length. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
  • 44. ‹#› Poisson Probability Function Poisson Probability Distribution where: x = the number of occurrences in an interval f(x) = the probability of x occurrences in an interval e = 2.71828 x! = x(x – 1)(x – 2) . . . (2)(1) ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Poisson Probability Distribution Poisson Probability Function In practical applications, x will eventually become large enough so that f(x) is approximately zero
  • 45. and the probability of any larger values of x becomes negligible. Since there is no stated upper limit for the number of occurrences, the probability function f(x) is applicable for values x = 0, 1, 2, … without limit. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Poisson Probability Distribution Example: Mercy Hospital Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy Hospital at the average rate of 6 per hour on weekend evenings. What is the probability of 4 arrivals in 30 minutes on a weekend evening?
  • 46. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Poisson Probability Distribution -hour, x = 4 Example: Mercy Hospital Using the probability function ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in
  • 47. whole or in part. ‹#› Poisson Probability Distribution
  • 48. Poisson Probabilities 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of Arrivals in 30 Minutes Probability Actually, the sequence continues: 11, 12, 13 … Example: Mercy Hospital
  • 49. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Poisson Probability Distribution A property of the Poisson distribution is that the mean and variance are equal. m = s 2 ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be
  • 50. scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› Poisson Probability Distribution Variance for Number of Arrivals During 30-Minute Periods m = s 2 = 3 Example: Mercy Hospital ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. ‹#› CLASSWORK/SUGGESTED PROBLEM Page 251, Problem 42
  • 51. ‹#› Slide © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. xy xy xy s r ss = 0.50510.7107038 x s == 0.60190.7758221 y s == 0.2767760.526095 xy s == 0.526095 0.954 0.7107038(0.7758221) xy r ==
  • 53. &A Page &P Sheet9 &A Page &P Sheet10 &A Page &P Sheet11 &A Page &P Sheet12 &A Page &P Sheet13 &A Page &P Sheet14 &A Page &P Sheet15 &A Page &P Sheet16 &A Page &P 433(2.71 BUSINESS STATISTICS Course Materials Anderson, D. R., Sweeney, D. J., Williams, T. A., Camm, J.,
  • 54. Cochran, J. (2015). Essentials of statistics for business and economics (7th edition). South-Western Pub. ISBN #978- 1133629658. Access to MS Excel software, with the Analysis ToolPak add-in loaded. Apple users may be required to purchase StatTools, if the add-ins are not available. Formatting Requirements Submission of homework assignments must be uploaded in a single PDF file. Multiple files will not be opened. Each problem must be clearly numbered and the problems must be in numeric order. Your work must be formatted in such a way that all of one problem is presented before the next problem begins. (It often happens that when a student saves an Excel file as a PDF, there are multiple pages and problems between the first half of a problem and the second half. Work down the Excel page, not across. Also, if you have done your work in Excel using a new worksheet per problem, saving your work in a PDF will often save only the first page. Check your formatting before you submit.) Furthermore, all workshop assignments must be submitted together and not in a piecemeal fashion. For example, you may not submit problems 1 and 2 on Monday, then 3 and 4 on Tuesday, and finally problem 5 on Wednesday. You must submit all five problems in one submission by the Sunday deadline. Week 3/Workshop Three Assignment(s): 1. Read text: Chapter 5. 2. Read PowerPoint Slides for Chapter 5. 3. Work through suggested problems as directed in PowerPoint slides. 4. Submit solutions to the following textbook problems Chapter 5: 9, 21, 33, 35, 43, & 45.