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6 interval estimation
1.
1Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. John Loucks St. Edward’s University ... ... ... .. SLIDES .BY
2.
2Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Chapter 8 Interval Estimation Population Mean: s Known Population Mean: s Unknown Determining the Sample Size Population Proportion
3.
3Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. A point estimator cannot be expected to provide the exact value of the population parameter. An interval estimate can be computed by adding and subtracting a margin of error to the point estimate. Point Estimate +/- Margin of Error The purpose of an interval estimate is to provide information about how close the point estimate is to the value of the parameter. Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate
4.
4Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The general form of an interval estimate of a population mean is Margin of Errorx Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate
5.
5Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known In order to develop an interval estimate of a population mean, the margin of error must be computed using either: •the population standard deviation s , or •the sample standard deviation s s is rarely known exactly, but often a good estimate can be obtained based on historical data or other information. We refer to such cases as the s known case.
6.
6Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. There is a 1 - probability that the value of a sample mean will provide a margin of error of or less. z x s/2 /2 /21 - of all valuesx Sampling distribution of x x z x s/2z x s/2 Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known
7.
7Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. /2 /2 1 - of all valuesx Sampling distribution of x x z x s/2z x s/2 [------------------------- -------------------------] [------------------------- -------------------------] [------------------------- -------------------------] x x x interval does not include interval includes interval includes Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known
8.
8Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known x z n s /2 where: is the sample mean 1 - is the confidence coefficient z/2 is the z value providing an area of /2 in the upper tail of the standard normal probability distribution s is the population standard deviation n is the sample size x
9.
9Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Values of z/2 for the Most Commonly Used Confidence Levels 90% .10 .05 .9500 1.645 Confidence Table Level /2 Look-up Area z/2 95% .05 .025 .9750 1.960 99% .01 .005 .9950 2.576
10.
10Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Meaning of Confidence Because 90% of all the intervals constructed using will contain the population mean, we say we are 90% confident that the interval includes the population mean . xx s645.1 xx s645.1 We say that this interval has been established at the 90% confidence level. The value .90 is referred to as the confidence coefficient.
11.
11Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Example: Discount Sounds Discount Sounds has 260 retail outlets throughout the United States. The firm is evaluating a potential location for a new outlet, based in part, on the mean annual income of the individuals in the marketing area of the new location. A sample of size n = 36 was taken; the sample mean income is $41,100. The population is not believed to be highly skewed. The population standard deviation is estimated to be $4,500, and the confidence coefficient to be used in the interval estimate is .95.
12.
12Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 95% of the sample means that can be observed are within + 1.96 of the population mean .sx The margin of error is: s /2 4,500 1.96 1,470 36 z n Thus, at 95% confidence, the margin of error is $1,470. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Example: Discount Sounds
13.
13Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval estimate of is: Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known We are 95% confident that the interval contains the population mean. $41,100 + $1,470 or $39,630 to $42,570 Example: Discount Sounds
14.
14Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known 90% 3.29 78.71 to 85.29 Confidence Margin Level of Error Interval Estimate 95% 3.92 78.08 to 85.92 99% 5.15 76.85 to 87.15 Example: Discount Sounds In order to have a higher degree of confidence, the margin of error and thus the width of the confidence interval must be larger.
15.
15Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Adequate Sample Size In most applications, a sample size of n = 30 is adequate. If the population distribution is highly skewed or contains outliers, a sample size of 50 or more is recommended.
16.
16Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Adequate Sample Size (continued) If the population is believed to be at least approximately normal, a sample size of less than 15 can be used. If the population is not normally distributed but is roughly symmetric, a sample size as small as 15 will suffice.
17.
17Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown If an estimate of the population standard deviation s cannot be developed prior to sampling, we use the sample standard deviation s to estimate s . This is the s unknown case. In this case, the interval estimate for is based on the t distribution. (We’ll assume for now that the population is normally distributed.)
18.
18Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. William Gosset, writing under the name “Student”, is the founder of the t distribution. t Distribution Gosset was an Oxford graduate in mathematics and worked for the Guinness Brewery in Dublin. He developed the t distribution while working on small-scale materials and temperature experiments.
19.
19Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The t distribution is a family of similar probability distributions. t Distribution A specific t distribution depends on a parameter known as the degrees of freedom. Degrees of freedom refer to the number of independent pieces of information that go into the computation of s.
20.
20Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. t Distribution A t distribution with more degrees of freedom has less dispersion. As the degrees of freedom increases, the difference between the t distribution and the standard normal probability distribution becomes smaller and smaller.
21.
21Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. t Distribution Standard normal distribution t distribution (20 degrees of freedom) t distribution (10 degrees of freedom) 0 z, t
22.
22Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. For more than 100 degrees of freedom, the standard normal z value provides a good approximation to the t value. t Distribution The standard normal z values can be found in the infinite degrees ( ) row of the t distribution table.
23.
23Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. t Distribution Standard normal z values
24.
24Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate x t s n /2 where: 1 - = the confidence coefficient t/2 = the t value providing an area of /2 in the upper tail of a t distribution with n - 1 degrees of freedom s = the sample standard deviation Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown
25.
25Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. A reporter for a student newspaper is writing an article on the cost of off-campus housing. A sample of 16 one-bedroom apartments within a half-mile of campus resulted in a sample mean of $750 per month and a sample standard deviation of $55. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown Example: Apartment Rents Let us provide a 95% confidence interval estimate of the mean rent per month for the population of one- bedroom efficiency apartments within a half-mile of campus. We will assume this population to be normally distributed.
26.
26Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. At 95% confidence, = .05, and /2 = .025. In the t distribution table we see that t.025 = 2.131. t.025 is based on n - 1 = 16 - 1 = 15 degrees of freedom. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown
27.
27Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. x t s n .025 We are 95% confident that the mean rent per month for the population of one-bedroom apartments within a half-mile of campus is between $720.70 and $779.30. Interval Estimate Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown 55 750 2.131 750 29.30 16 Margin of Error 27
28.
28Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown Adequate Sample Size If the population distribution is highly skewed or contains outliers, a sample size of 50 or more is recommended. In most applications, a sample size of n = 30 is adequate when using the expression to develop an interval estimate of a population mean. 𝑥 ± 𝑡 𝛼 2 𝑠 𝑛
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29Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown Adequate Sample Size (continued) If the population is believed to be at least approximately normal, a sample size of less than 15 can be used. If the population is not normally distributed but is roughly symmetric, a sample size as small as 15 will suffice.
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30Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Summary of Interval Estimation Procedures for a Population Mean Can the population standard deviation s be assumed known ? Use Yes No /2 s x t n Use /2x z n s s Known Case s Unknown Case Use the sample standard deviation s to estimate s
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31Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Let E = the desired margin of error. E is the amount added to and subtracted from the point estimate to obtain an interval estimate. Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Mean If a desired margin of error is selected prior to sampling, the sample size necessary to satisfy the margin of error can be determined.
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32Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Mean E z n s /2 n z E ( )/ s2 2 2 2 Margin of Error Necessary Sample Size
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33Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Mean The Necessary Sample Size equation requires a value for the population standard deviation s . If s is unknown, a preliminary or planning value for s can be used in the equation. 1. Use the estimate of the population standard deviation computed in a previous study. 2. Use a pilot study to select a preliminary study and use the sample standard deviation from the study. 3. Use judgment or a “best guess” for the value of s .
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34Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Recall that Discount Sounds is evaluating a potential location for a new retail outlet, based in part, on the mean annual income of the individuals in the marketing area of the new location. Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Mean Example: Discount Sounds Suppose that Discount Sounds’ management team wants an estimate of the population mean such that there is a .95 probability that the sampling error is $500 or less. How large a sample size is needed to meet the required precision?
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35Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. At 95% confidence, z.025 = 1.96. Recall that s= 4,500. z n s /2 500 2 2 2 (1.96) (4,500) 311.17 312 (500) n Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Mean A sample of size 312 is needed to reach a desired precision of + $500 at 95% confidence.
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36Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. The general form of an interval estimate of a population proportion is Margin of Errorp Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion
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37Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion The sampling distribution of plays a key role in computing the margin of error for this interval estimate. The sampling distribution of can be approximated by a normal distribution whenever np > 5 and n(1 – p) > 5.
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38Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. /2 /2 Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Normal Approximation of Sampling Distribution of p Sampling distribution of p (1 ) p p p n s - p p /2 pz s/2 pz s 1 - of all valuesp
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39Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Interval Estimate Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion p z p p n - / ( ) 2 1 where: 1 - is the confidence coefficient z/2 is the z value providing an area of /2 in the upper tail of the standard normal probability distribution is the sample proportionp
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40Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Political Science, Inc. (PSI) specializes in voter polls and surveys designed to keep political office seekers informed of their position in a race. Using telephone surveys, PSI interviewers ask registered voters who they would vote for if the election were held that day. Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Example: Political Science, Inc.
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41Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. In a current election campaign, PSI has just found that 220 registered voters, out of 500 contacted, favor a particular candidate. PSI wants to develop a 95% confidence interval estimate for the proportion of the population of registered voters that favor the candidate. Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Example: Political Science, Inc.
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42Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. p z p p n - / ( ) 2 1 where: n = 500, = 220/500 = .44, z/2 = 1.96p Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion PSI is 95% confident that the proportion of all voters that favor the candidate is between .3965 and .4835. .44(1 .44) .44 1.96 500 - = .44 + .0435
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43Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Solving for the necessary sample size, we get Margin of Error Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion /2 (1 )p p E z n - 2 /2 2 ( ) (1 )z p p n E - However, will not be known until after we have selected the sample. We will use the planning value p* for . p p
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44Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion The planning value p* can be chosen by: 1. Using the sample proportion from a previous sample of the same or similar units, or 2. Selecting a preliminary sample and using the sample proportion from this sample. 3. Use judgment or a “best guess” for a p* value. 4. Otherwise, use .50 as the p* value. 2 * * /2 2 ( ) (1 )z p p n E - Necessary Sample Size
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45Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Suppose that PSI would like a .99 probability that the sample proportion is within + .03 of the population proportion. How large a sample size is needed to meet the required precision? (A previous sample of similar units yielded .44 for the sample proportion.) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Example: Political Science, Inc.
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46Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. At 99% confidence, z.005 = 2.576. Recall that p* = .44. A sample of size 1817 is needed to reach a desired precision of + .03 at 99% confidence. 2 * * 2 /2 2 2 ( ) (1 ) (2.576) (.44)(.56) 1817 (.03) z p p n E - Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion * * /2 (1 ) .03 p p z n -
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47Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Note: We used .44 as the best estimate of p in the preceding expression. If no information is available about p, then .5 is often assumed because it provides the highest possible sample size. If we had used p = .5, the recommended n would have been 1843. Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion
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48Slide © 2014 Cengage
Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. End of Chapter 8
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