Forecasting activities, part 1

1. moving av. 10days moving av. 5days exp.smoothing error 10 days
30
24
29
27
30 28
30 28 27.6
25 28.2 27.6
27 27.8 28.84
30 28.4 27.96
30 28.4 28.08
30 28.4 28.08
28 28.2 29 28.08 -0.2
26 28.6 28.8 29.2 -2.6
29 28.3 28.6 29.36 0.7
30 28.5 28.6 28.52 1.5
24 28.5 27.4 28.32 -4.5
27 27.9 27.2 28.08 -0.9
30 28.1 28 27.24 1.9
21 28.4 26.4 27.6 -7.4
29 27.5 26.2 27.48 1.5
30 27.4 27.4 25.64 2.6
27 27.3 27.4 26.88 -0.3
27 27.3 26.8 27.48 -0.3
29 27.4 28.4 26.76 1.6
30 27.4 28.6 28.28 2.6
30 27.4 28.6 28.32 2.6
24 28 28 28.32 -4
30 27.7 28.6 28.8 2.3
29 27.7 28.6 28.32 1.3
28 28.5 28.2 28.52 -0.5
30 28.4 28.2 28.24 1.6
26 28.4 28.6 27.84 -2.4
29 28.3 28.4 29.12 0.7
30 28.5 28.6 28.28 1.5
30 28.6 29 28.32 1.4
30 28.6 29 28.8 1.4
24 28.6 28.6 28.8 -4.6
30 28.6 28.8 29.52 1.4
29 28.6 28.6 28.56 0.4
30 28.6 28.6 28.52 1.4
28.8 22.6 28.32 -28.8
MAD
0.78055556
MSE
4.93583333

2. error 5 days error exp MAD error 10 days error10^2 error 5 days error5^2
2 -0.2 0.04 2 4
2 2.4 -2.6 6.76 2 4
-3.2 -2.6 0.7 0.49 -3.2 10.24
-0.8 -1.84 1.5 2.25 -0.8 0.64
1.6 2.04 -4.5 20.25 1.6 2.56
1.6 1.92 -0.9 0.81 1.6 2.56
1.6 1.92 1.9 3.61 1.6 2.56
-1 -0.08 -7.4 54.76 -1 1
-2.8 -3.2 1.5 2.25 -2.8 7.84
0.4 -0.36 2.6 6.76 0.4 0.16
1.4 1.48 -0.3 0.09 1.4 1.96
-3.4 -4.32 -0.3 0.09 -3.4 11.56
-0.2 -1.08 1.6 2.56 -0.2 0.04
2 2.76 2.6 6.76 2 4
-5.4 -6.6 2.6 6.76 -5.4 29.16
2.8 1.52 -4 16 2.8 7.84
2.6 4.36 2.3 5.29 2.6 6.76
-0.4 0.12 1.3 1.69 -0.4 0.16
0.2 -0.48 -0.5 0.25 0.2 0.04
0.6 2.24 1.6 2.56 0.6 0.36
1.4 1.72 -2.4 5.76 1.4 1.96
1.4 1.68 0.7 0.49 1.4 1.96
-4 -4.32 1.5 2.25 -4 16
1.4 1.2 1.4 1.96 1.4 1.96
0.4 0.68 1.4 1.96 0.4 0.16
-0.2 -0.52 -4.6 21.16 -0.2 0.04
1.8 1.76 1.4 1.96 1.8 3.24
-2.6 -1.84 0.4 0.16 -2.6 6.76
0.6 -0.12 1.4 1.96 0.6 0.36
1.4 1.72 1.4 1.96
1 1.68 1 1
1 1.2 1 1
-4.6 -4.8 -4.6 21.16
1.2 0.48 1.2 1.44
0.4 0.44 0.4 0.16
1.4 1.48 1.4 1.96
-22.6 -28.32
MAD MAD
0.58333333 0.80228571
MSE MSE
4.40444444 5.81668571

3. error exp error exp^2
2.4 5.76
-2.6 6.76
-1.84 3.3856
2.04 4.1616
1.92 3.6864
1.92 3.6864
-0.08 0.0064
-3.2 10.24
-0.36 0.1296
1.48 2.1904
-4.32 18.6624
-1.08 1.1664
2.76 7.6176
-6.6 43.56
1.52 2.3104
4.36 19.0096
0.12 0.0144
-0.48 0.2304
2.24 5.0176
1.72 2.9584
1.68 2.8224
-4.32 18.6624
1.2 1.44
0.68 0.4624
-0.52 0.2704
1.76 3.0976
-1.84 3.3856
-0.12 0.0144
1.72 2.9584
1.68 2.8224
1.2 1.44
-4.8 23.04
0.48 0.2304
0.44 0.1936
1.48 2.1904

4. Real Data
40
30
20
Real Data
10
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
35
30
25
20 Forecast 5 day
Avg
15
10 Real Data
5
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
As we can see from the error results and the graphics, most accur
forecasting is 5 day average. It's MAD and MSE is lower than in an

5. 40
35
30
25 Forecast 10 day
20 Avg
15
Real Data
10
5
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
40
35
30
25 Forecast Exp
20 Smooth
15
Real Data
10
5
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
r results and the graphics, most accurate method of
It's MAD and MSE is lower than in any other method