- Futures prices for ethanol, crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, corn, soybeans and other commodities declined on January 5th due to a stronger US dollar and bearish supply reports.
- Ethanol futures fell 3.2 cents to $2.223 per gallon for February delivery on increased ethanol production and stocks. Physical ethanol prices were also lower.
- Corn futures lost 15 cents to close at $6.435 per bushel as traders anticipated rain in Argentina could boost supplies. Soybeans and other crops also fell.
- The dollar index rose to near 81, pressuring commodity prices. Crude oil fell $1.41 to $101.81 per barrel on higher supplies
Biofuel Markets Daily: Commodity Prices Decline on Bearish EIA Report and Strong Dollar
1. Desk: 239-390-2885
BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY January 5, 2012
CBOT ETHANOL RBOB CRUDE HEATING OIL
Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg
Jan 12 2.1850 2.228 (0.043) Feb 12 2.7365 2.7852 (0.0487) Feb 12 101.81 103.22 (1.41) Feb 12 3.0388 3.0899 (0.0511)
Feb 12 2.2230 2.255 (0.032) Mar 12 2.7480 2.7949 (0.0469) Mar 12 102.00 103.40 (1.40) Mar 12 3.0361 3.0828 (0.0467)
Mar 12 2.2450 2.276 (0.031) Apr 12 2.8787 2.9194 (0.0407) Apr 12 102.21 103.60 (1.39) Apr 12 3.0240 3.0648 (0.0408)
Apr 12 2.2610 2.292 (0.031) May 12 2.8758 2.9149 (0.0391) May 12 102.42 103.78 (1.36) May 12 3.0099 3.0439 (0.0340)
May 12 2.2920 2.330 (0.038) Jun 12 2.8556 2.8930 (0.0374) Jun 12 102.52 103.82 (1.30) Jun 12 2.9993 3.0275 (0.0282)
Jun 12 2.3070 2.353 (0.046) Jul 12 2.8304 2.8666 (0.0362) Jul 12 102.49 103.71 (1.22) Jul 12 2.9970 3.0224 (0.0254)
CORN SOYBEANS WHEAT NATGAS
Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg
Mar 12 643.50 658.50 (15.00) Jan 12 1201.25 1221.50 (20.25) Mar 12 629.25 650.00 (20.75) Feb 12 2.980 3.096 (0.116)
May 12 651.50 666.75 (15.25) Mar 12 1209.00 1230.00 (21.00) May 12 648.50 668.00 (19.50) Mar 12 3.017 3.127 (0.110)
Jul 12 657.25 673.00 (15.75) May 12 1218.75 1239.50 (20.75) Jul 12 664.75 684.00 (19.25) Apr 12 3.082 3.185 (0.103)
Sep 12 606.50 617.75 (11.25) Jul 12 1227.50 1248.50 (21.00) Sep 12 680.75 700.00 (19.25) May 12 3.138 3.238 (0.100)
Dec 12 579.50 589.75 (10.25) Aug 12 1222.75 1243.75 (21.00) Dec 12 703.00 721.75 (18.75) Jun 12 3.193 3.289 (0.096)
Mar 13 591.75 601.75 (10.00) Sep 12 1212.50 1230.50 (18.00) Mar 13 716.75 736.50 (19.75) Jul 12 3.251 3.346 (0.095)
Ethanol Crush Spread Pricing The dollar index moved higher by a percent trading near the 81 level mostly at the expense of the Euro which
Jan 12 (0.3170) Q3 11 (0.181) tumbled to a 15 month low. Strength in the greenback had commodities under pressure from the outset and a
bearish EIA weekly stocks report, which saw builds in crude and the products, further pressured energy. Crude
Feb 12 (0.2106) Q4 11 (0.096) fell $1.41 to $101.81 while heating oil and RBOB both declined by about 5 cents to $3.0388 and $2.7365
Mar 12 (0.1490) Q1 12 0.099 respectively. Ethanol stocks showed a small build to 17.9 million barrels from 17.7 in the prior week as
production increased marginally to 963,000 barrels per day for the week ended 12/30/11. Futures fell on the
Apr 12 (0.1842) Q2 12 0.125
increased production and stocks figures, settling at $2.223 for February delivery down 3.2 cents. Physical
May 12 (0.0974) Q312 0.019 markets were also lower with prompt Argo at $2.17 late in the day, FOB NE on BN trading $2.03 and Rule11
Nationwide Ethanol Indicative Pricing $217.5. RIN activity picked up but pricing remains choppy with aggressors crossing bid/ask spreads. For 2012
vintage, D4s were in the upper 150 cent range, D5s just under 80 cents and D6 RINs were 2 cents. Corn spent
Location Bid Ask the afternoon in range bound trade between $6.40 and $6.45 until the final 15 minutes which saw it move
Argo ITT 2.170 2.190 higher to $6.48 only to sell off sharply in the closing minutes to settle at $6.435, a loss of 15 cents. The potential
for rain in Argentina's 10 day extended forecast weighed on corn and traders used a lack fund buying interest
New York 2.330 2.350 late in the session as a reason to sell into the close. Soybeans followed corn and other Ag markets lower as the
Gulf Coast 2.280 2.310 rising dollar impacted export pricing and expectations that Brasil will also see some badly needed rain in the
coming week. March beans lost 21 cents closing at $12.09 and bean oil declined by almost a penny to 52.06.
Los Angeles 2.310 2.350 f
DOE Storage (mbbl) F/X NEAR MARKET SUMMARY
Periods Crude Gasoline Distillate USD Index 80.97 Energy
This Week 327.5 217.7 140.4 Brazilian Real 1.843 WTI (Cash) 101.47
Last Week 323.6 218.4 139.1 Canadian Dollar 1.0195 Brent 112.39
Last Year 339.4 214.9 161.0 Euro 1.2785 NYMEX Crude 101.81
Change 3.9 -0.7 1.3 Japanese Yen 77.19 B100 SME Chicago 4.74
Front Month Ethanol Crush Spread B100 SME Gulf Coast 4.82
B100 FAME Chicago 4.50
8.00 1.5
B100 FAME Gulf Co. 4.62
Ag Products
7.50 1 White Grease (cnt/lb) 36.21
Yellow Grease (cnt/lb) 33.50
Tallow (cnt/lb) 45.50
7.00 0.5
Soybean Meal 310.30
Soybean Oil 51.77
6.50 0
Canola (CAD Dollar) 518.00
Sugar (cnt/lb) 23.13
Dry DDG-Chicago(wkly 201.50
6.00 -0.5 Market Indices
DJ-Commodity Index 142.340
5.50 -1
DJ Industrials 12415.7
10/25/2011 11/4/2011 11/14/2011 11/24/2011 12/4/2011 12/14/2011 12/24/2011 1/3/2012
NASDAQ 2669.86
EtOH x 2.8 Corn Crush Spread S&P 500 1281.06
Gold 1623.10
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation
of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other
person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
2. PFL BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY COMMENTARY January 5, 2012
RBOB/Ethanol/RINs
3.00 0.10
2.90 0.09
2.80 0.08
2.70 0.07
2.60 0.06
2.50 0.05
2.40 0.04
2.30 0.03
2.20 0.02
2.10 0.01
2.00 0.00
25-Oct 14-Nov 4-Dec 24-Dec
RBOB Ethanol 10 E RINs 11 E RINS
Ethanol RIN Pricing (cts/RIN) Biodiesel RIN Pricing (cts/RIN)
Year Type Bid Ask Year Type Bid Ask
2010 D6 0.12 0.17 2010 D4 130.00 135.00
2010 D3 90.00 105.00 2010 D5 60.00 70.00
2011 D6 0.34 0.37 2011 D4 124.00 128.00
2011 D3 113.00 113.00 2011 D5 76.00 79.00
2012 D6 1.85 2.10 2012 D4 156.00 159.00
2012 D3 113.00 113.00 2012 D5 77.00 80.00
D6 = Corn Ethanol RIN D4 = Biodiesel RIN
D3 = Cellulosic Ethanol RIN D5 = Advanced Biodiesel or Renewable Diesel RIN
RBOB CBOT Ethanol RBOB/Etoh Ethanol Swaps Nationwide Etoh Pricing
Month(s) Spread CBOT Location Bid Ask
Jan 12 2.7365 2.1850 (0.5515) Month(s) Bid Ask Atlanta/Doraville 2.320 2.350
Feb 12 2.7480 2.2230 (0.5250) Feb-12 2.270 2.285 Chicago Rule 11 2.160 2.180
Mar 12 2.8787 2.2450 (0.6337) Mar-12 2.285 2.300 Dallas 2.240 2.260
Apr 12 2.8758 2.2610 (0.6148) Q2 12 2.340 2.350 FOB NE BN 2.020 2.040
May 12 2.8556 2.2920 (0.5636) Q3 12 2.285 2.300 FOB NE UP 2.040 2.060
Jun 12 2.8304 2.3070 (0.5234) Q4 12 2.135 2.155 Northern California 2.310 2.330
Jul 12 2.8037 2.3200 (0.4837) Q1 13 2.130 2.150 Pacifc Northwest 2.290 2.310
Soybean Oil/Heating Oil/Biodiesl RINs
2.0000
4.30
4.10
1.8000
3.90
1.6000
3.70
3.50 1.4000
26.85
3.30
1.2000
3.10
1.0000
2.90
2.70 0.8000
25-Oct 4-Nov 14-Nov 24-Nov 4-Dec 14-Dec 24-Dec 3-Jan
BO $/gal HO 10 BD 11 BD
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any
offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
3. PFL BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY COMMENTARY January 5, 2012
ETHANOL CHART CORN
R3 2.349 660 R3 677.4
2.800 R2 2.300 650 R2 667.5
2.700 R1 2.253 640
R1 656.6
630
2.600 S1 2.121 620
S1 630.9
2.500 S2 2.081 610 S2 619.9
2.400 S3 2.042 600 S3 610.5
2.300 5DMA 2.212 590
5DMA 646.6
580
2.200
20DMA 2.154 570
20DMA 624.4
2.100
100DMA 2.565 560 100DMA 640.1
2.000 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec
17-Nov 2-Dec 17-Dec 1-Jan
RBOB SOYBEANS
2.8
R3 2.9112 1240
R3 1267.1
2.75
R2 2.8505 R2 1243.5
1220
R1 2.8211 R1 1225.8
2.7
1200
S1 2.6568 S1 1177.7
2.65
S2 2.6062 1180 S2 1161.8
2.6
S3 2.5575 1160 S3 1135.4
2.55
5DMA 2.7286 1140
5DMA 1204.0
2.5
20DMA 2.6502 20DMA 1172.7
1120
2.45 100DMA 2.6873 100DMA 1217.5
1100
2.4
10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec
10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec
.
CRUDE WHEAT
R3 113.12 665
R3 679.5
104 R2 108.31 655 R2 669.4
102 R1 104.96 645 R1 655.5
100 S1 98.84 635
S1 605.0
625
98 S2 96.05 S2 593.6
615
96
S3 92.55 605
S3 752.2
5DMA 101.53 595
5DMA 641.7
94
20DMA 99.45 585 20DMA 623.7
92
100DMA 94.84 575 100DMA 638.6
90 565
10-Nov 22-Nov 4-Dec 16-Dec 28-Dec 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec
HEATING OIL NATURAL GAS
3.2 R3 3.2140 R3 3.239
3.15 R2 3.1247 3.9 R2 3.137
3.1
R1 3.0773 R1 3.041
3.05 3.7
S1 3.0013 S1 2.922
3
2.95
S2 2.9647 3.5 S2 2.838
2.9 S3 2.8900 S3 2.794
3.3
2.85 5DMA 3.0124 5DMA 3.030
2.8 20DMA 2.9510 3.1 20DMA 3.155
2.75 100DMA 2.9684 100DMA 3.566
2.7 2.9
10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec 25-Dec 7-Nov 22-Nov 7-Dec 22-Dec
WEATHER
City H/L The Midwest sees some snow showers today around the Great Lakes
Chicago 46/33 and as far north as Minnesota. Some breezy conditions are possible at
New York 42/32 times from the Northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. High fire
danger conditions are possible in parts of North Dakota. The mountain
Houston 68/53 snow and rain in the Pacific Northwest should taper off by tonight. The
Los Angeles 82/54 Central Valley of California expects a continued poor air quality
Washington D.C. 44/31 conditions today. Chilly temperatures continue in the Southeast with
frost possible in South Florida. Snow flurries are possible from the
St. Louis 56/39 interior of northern Maine to the mountains of West Virginia.
Naples, Florida 67/40
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are
not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources
believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness
or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.