- Ethanol, crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil futures prices increased on the CBOT and NYMEX on news that the ECB lent large amounts of money to European banks.
- A larger than expected draw in US crude inventories contributed to higher oil prices. Ethanol futures rose in tandem with corn prices.
- Soybean prices saw more modest gains, limited by reports of lower Chinese demand for US soybeans in November compared to the previous year.
1. Desk: 239-390-2885
BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY December 21, 2011
CBOT ETHANOL RBOB CRUDE HEATING OIL
Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg
Jan 12 2.1570 2.140 0.017 Jan 12 2.6199 2.5787 0.0412 Feb 12 98.67 97.24 1.43 Jan 12 2.9087 2.8494 0.0593
Feb 12 2.1530 2.140 0.013 Feb 12 2.6215 2.5840 0.0375 Mar 12 98.85 97.42 1.43 Feb 12 2.9176 2.8592 0.0584
Mar 12 2.1790 2.160 0.019 Mar 12 2.6303 2.5946 0.0357 Apr 12 99.02 97.59 1.43 Mar 12 2.9159 2.8593 0.0566
Apr 12 2.1950 2.175 0.020 Apr 12 2.7550 2.7229 0.0321 May 12 99.10 97.67 1.43 Apr 12 2.9003 2.8475 0.0528
May 12 2.2120 2.189 0.023 May 12 2.7517 2.7206 0.0311 Jun 12 99.02 97.59 1.43 May 12 2.8812 2.8324 0.0488
Jun 12 2.2240 2.206 0.018 Jun 12 2.7324 2.7026 0.0298 Jul 12 98.83 97.39 1.44 Jun 12 2.8657 2.8194 0.0463
CORN SOYBEANS WHEAT NATGAS
Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg
Mar 12 616.50 607.00 9.50 Jan 12 1153.75 1144.50 9.25 Mar 12 617.00 607.75 9.25 Jan 12 3.155 3.128 0.027
May 12 625.25 615.75 9.50 Mar 12 1163.25 1154.50 8.75 May 12 635.75 626.75 9.00 Feb 12 3.198 3.170 0.028
Jul 12 631.75 622.25 9.50 May 12 1173.75 1164.75 9.00 Jul 12 652.25 643.75 8.50 Mar 12 3.239 3.208 0.031
Sep 12 592.75 584.50 8.25 Jul 12 1183.75 1174.75 9.00 Sep 12 670.00 661.75 8.25 Apr 12 3.302 3.271 0.031
Dec 12 570.75 563.50 7.25 Aug 12 1182.00 1173.25 8.75 Dec 12 690.75 682.00 8.75 May 12 3.352 3.319 0.033
Mar 13 582.75 576.00 6.75 Sep 12 1177.25 1168.75 8.50 Mar 13 706.50 698.00 8.50 Jun 12 3.399 3.365 0.034
Ethanol Crush Spread Pricing Markets digested news that the ECB lent 489 billion Euros for 3 years to 523 European banks at 1%. Some
Jan 12 (0.1254) Q3 11 (0.102) viewed it as positive anticipating that the money will be used to purchase European sovereign debt, while
others felt the large borrowing (only 293 billion euros in lending was expected) was a sign the current situation
Feb 12 (0.1366) Q4 11 (0.068) may be worse than thought. A larger than expected 10.6 million draw in crude inventories sent futures higher
Mar 12 (0.0638) Q1 12 0.087 by $1.43 to settle at $98.67. Gasoline and heating oil followed crude, gaining 3.75 and 5.84 cents respectively.
Apr 12 (0.1065) Q2 12 0.125 Ethanol futures added about 1.5 cents for the first quarter of 2012 moving higher with corn. The EIA weekly
stocks report showed that production remained strong at 943,000 barrels per day versus year ago levels of
May 12 (0.0589) Q312 0.011 892,000. Stocks were also higher, climbing 600,000 barrels to 17.7 million. All the gains came from a build in
Nationwide Ethanol Indicative Pricing the East Coast of 800,000 barrels while other PAADs were steady or declined. Argo prices moved higher
trading up to $2.21 and now command almost a 10 cent premium to Rule 11. RIN values remain little changed
Location Bid Ask in thin markets with D4s in the mid 120 cents, D5s on either side of 80 and E11 RINs at 35 points. Corn traded
Argo ITT 2.200 2.230 through resistance in the $6.14 ‐ $6.16 range today, closing up 9.5 cents at $6.165. Temperatures above 100 in
parts of Argentina may have caused some crop damage ahead of rains and cooler temperatures that are
New York 2.270 2.290 forecasted for later this week. Soybeans lagged on a percentage basis, climbing 9.25 cents for January delivery
Gulf Coast 2.280 2.300 to settle at $11.5375, Gains were limited by news that Chinese demand for US beans during November was
35% lower than year ago levels. Soybean oil was little changed up just 0.07 to 49.45.
Los Angeles 2.180 2.210 f
DOE Storage (mbbl) F/X NEAR MARKET SUMMARY
Periods Crude Gasoline Distillate USD Index 80.00 Energy
This Week 323.6 218.4 139.1 Brazilian Real 1.858 WTI (Cash) 98.91
Last Week 334.2 218.8 141.5 Canadian Dollar 1.0267 Brent 107.94
Last Year 340.7 217.2 160.7 Euro 1.3044 NYMEX Crude 98.67
Change -10.6 -1.0 -2.4 Japanese Yen 78.08 B100 SME Chicago 4.78
Front Month Ethanol Crush Spread B100 SME Gulf Coast 4.95
B100 FAME Chicago 4.63
8.00 1.5
B100 FAME Gulf Co. 4.78
Ag Products
7.50 1 White Grease (cnt/lb) 38.20
Yellow Grease (cnt/lb) 34.25
Tallow (cnt/lb) 47.50
7.00 0.5
Soybean Meal 299.00
Soybean Oil 49.45
6.50 0
Canola (CAD Dollar) 511.40
Sugar (cnt/lb) 23.32
Dry DDG-Chicago(wkly 201.50
6.00 -0.5 Market Indices
DJ-Commodity Index 140.380
5.50 -1
DJ Industrials 12107.7
10/12/2011 10/22/2011 11/1/2011 11/11/2011 11/21/2011 12/1/2011 12/11/2011 12/21/2011
NASDAQ 2577.97
EtOH x 2.8 Corn Crush Spread S&P 500 1243.72
Gold 1616.90
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation
of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other
person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
2. PFL BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY COMMENTARY December 21, 2011
RBOB/Ethanol/RINs
3.00 0.10
2.90 0.09
2.80 0.08
2.70 0.07
2.60 0.06
2.50 0.05
2.40 0.04
2.30 0.03
2.20 0.02
2.10 0.01
2.00 0.00
12-Oct 1-Nov 21-Nov 11-Dec
RBOB Ethanol 10 E RINs 11 E RINS
Ethanol RIN Pricing (cts/RIN) Biodiesel RIN Pricing (cts/RIN)
Year Type Bid Ask Year Type Bid Ask
2010 D6 0.10 0.20 2010 D4 129.00 133.00
2010 D3 90.00 105.00 2010 D5 60.00 70.00
2011 D6 0.30 0.40 2011 D4 126.00 128.00
2011 D3 113.00 113.00 2011 D5 78.00 82.00
2012 D6 2.00 2.50 2012 D4 145.00 155.00
2012 D3 113.00 113.00 2012 D5 90.00 95.00
D6 = Corn Ethanol RIN D4 = Biodiesel RIN
D3 = Cellulosic Ethanol RIN D5 = Advanced Biodiesel or Renewable Diesel RIN
RBOB CBOT Ethanol RBOB/Etoh Ethanol Swaps Nationwide Etoh Pricing
Month(s) Spread CBOT Location Bid Ask
Jan 12 2.6199 2.1570 (0.4629) Month(s) Bid Ask Atlanta/Doraville 2.290 2.310
Feb 12 2.6215 2.1530 (0.4685) Jan-12 2.145 2.160 Chicago Rule 11 2.110 2.140
Mar 12 2.6303 2.1790 (0.4513) Feb-12 2.170 2.185 Dallas 2.160 2.180
Apr 12 2.7550 2.1950 (0.5600) Q1 12 2.170 2.185 FOB NE BN 1.940 1.970
May 12 2.7517 2.2120 (0.5397) Q2 12 2.215 2.230 FOB NE UP 1.970 1.990
Jun 12 2.7324 2.2240 (0.5084) Q3 12 2.185 2.205 Northern California 2.150 2.170
Jul 12 2.7088 2.2370 (0.4718) Q4 12 2.085 2.205 Pacifc Northwest 2.170 2.190
Soybean Oil/Heating Oil/Biodiesl RINs
2.0000
4.30
4.10
1.8000
3.90
1.6000
3.70
3.50 1.4000
26.85
3.30
1.2000
3.10
1.0000
2.90
2.70 0.8000
12-Oct 22-Oct 1-Nov 11-Nov 21-Nov 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec
BO $/gal HO 10 BD 11 BD
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any
offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
3. PFL BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY COMMENTARY December 21, 2011
ETHANOL CHART CORN
R3 2.319 660 R3 648.9
2.800 R2 2.271 650 R2 639.5
2.700 R1 2.224 640
R1 629.1
630
2.600 S1 2.094 620
S1 604.4
2.500 S2 2.054 610 S2 593.9
2.400 S3 2.016 600 S3 584.9
2.300 5DMA 2.109 590
5DMA 602.1
580
2.200
20DMA 2.265 570
20DMA 598.0
2.100
100DMA 2.613 560 100DMA 640.0
2.000 28-Oct 12-Nov 27-Nov 12-Dec
4-Nov 19-Nov 4-Dec 19-Dec
RBOB SOYBEANS
2.8
R3 2.7871 1300
R3 1217.0
2.75
R2 2.7291 1280 R2 1194.4
R1 2.7009 1260 R1 1177.3
2.7
S1 2.5436 1240 S1 1131.1
2.65 1220
S2 2.4951 S2 1115.8
2.6 1200
S3 2.4485 1180
S3 1090.5
2.55
5DMA 2.5623 1160 5DMA 1138.6
2.5
20DMA 2.5631 1140 20DMA 1135.6
2.45 100DMA 2.6844 1120 100DMA 1222.0
1100
2.4
28-Oct 12-Nov 27-Nov 12-Dec
28-Oct 12-Nov 27-Nov 12-Dec
.
CRUDE WHEAT
R3 109.63 665
R3 666.3
102
R2 104.97 655 R2 656.4
R1 101.72 645 R1 642.7
97 S1 95.80 635
S1 593.3
625
S2 93.08 S2 582.1
615
92 S3 89.70 605
S3 752.2
5DMA 96.72 595
5DMA 602.4
87 20DMA 97.24 585 20DMA 596.3
100DMA 93.67 575 100DMA 638.1
82 565
28-Oct 9-Nov 21-Nov 3-Dec 15-Dec 28-Oct 12-Nov 27-Nov 12-Dec
HEATING OIL NATURAL GAS
3.2 R3 3.0764 R3 3.429
3.15 R2 2.9910 3.9 R2 3.321
3.1
R1 2.9455 3.8 R1 3.219
3.05
S1 2.8728 3.7 S1 3.093
3
2.95
S2 2.8378 3.6 S2 3.005
2.9 S3 2.7662 3.5 S3 2.958
2.85 5DMA 2.8588 3.4 5DMA 3.151
2.8 20DMA 2.9175 3.3
20DMA 3.308
3.2
2.75 100DMA 2.9699 100DMA 3.666
2.7 3.1
28-Oct 12-Nov 27-Nov 12-Dec 25-Oct 9-Nov 24-Nov 9-Dec
WEATHER
City H/L Rain and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight in the Southeast
Chicago 45/30 especially the Texas Coast overnight with possible severe storms and
New York 56/47 snow impacting the area. The Northeast expects some region‐wide rain
today and into tonight with northern Main seeing some snow that
Houston 60/50 transitions into a mix of rain. Rain in the Ohio Valley and central Great
Los Angeles 64/45 Lakes from yesterday will slowly taper off as the day progresses with
some snow moving into the Western Plains in the afternoon. An upper
Washington D.C. 60/49 level system will spread a chance of snow southward from the Northern
St. Louis 48/37 Rockies and High Plains today to the Central Rockies and High Plains
Naples, Florida 80/61 tonight.
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are
not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources
believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness
or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.