Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services August 4, 2011Services PMI climbs to 54.7 in July: growth continues. The purchasing managers’ index for services (Services PMI) rose from 53.8 in June to 54.7 in July. The downward trend observed since April has thus leveled off. The index remains within the growth zone, which indicates continued growth in the private services sector. The component index for new orders contributed the most to the increase in the Services PMI, landing in the growth zone yet again. Supplier delivery times also made a positive contribution with the index level of 56.1 in July indicating continued strong demand pressure within the sector. The rate of increase in service companies’ business activity moderated in July, and the employment index dropped marginally. The index for planned business activity rose somewhat, indicating a positive outlook for growth in the services sector. The index for suppliers’ intermediate goods prices dropped from 58.1 in June to 54.8 in July. Prices continue to rise, though the pressure decreased somewhat. Services PMI (Services Purchasing Managers’ Index) Seasonally adjusted 2011 Jul. 54.7 Jun. 53.8 May 56.7 Apr. 60.9 Mar. 60.8 Feb. 62.0 Jan. 65.6 2010 Dec. 65.8 Nov. 64.0 Oct. 63.6 Sep. 60.8 Aug. 63.7 Jul. 63.5 Next publication of Services Purchasing Managers’ Index: Monday, September 5, 2011
Silf/Swedbank’sPurchasing Managers’ Index – Services- objectives and methodologyHistory Silf and Swedbank AB publ. made the first joint – internal – calculation of the “Purchasing Managers’ Index” for the service sector of the four indexes (PMI) during 2005. The model for PMI – Services is the U.S. based Non-Manufacturing Index and the Swedish PMI, which has been published since November 1994Participants About 200 purchasing managers in the service sector.Publication Third weekday of each month, 8:30 am.Analysis Period Comparison with previous month.Compositionof PMI – Services (%) New orders (within the company) 35 Business activity (within the company) 25 Employment (within the company) 20 Suppliers’ Delivery Times 20Other leading indicators(not included in PMI – Services) Backlog of Orders Suppliers’ intermediate goods prices Planned business activity next six monthsObjective Quick economic indicator Simple statistics Statistics with relatively short publication intervals Constant contact with a well-informed professional groupCalculation According to “diffusion index”. Positive changes are noted in percent for the four sub indexes. The percentage of unchanged replies, multiplied by 0.5, is added to this figure. Then the different sub indexes are weighted as described above to reach the total index. The Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services does not indicate activity levels but rather monthly changes in activity in the service sector.“Break-even” The dividing line between growth and decline – in line with US praxis – has been drawn at a total index of 50. However, this boundary or “neutral growth zone” should not be applied excessively. Rather, “Break-even” at 50 indicates a target value. We believe we have used reliable sources and procedures to generate and analyze the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI – Services). However, Swedbank AB (publ) and SILF (earlier Organisationen för Inköp och Logistik, /I&L/ – The Organization for Purchasing and Logistics) cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the analyses and cannot be responsible for any errors or omissions in the basic data or processing thereof. The reader should base any decisions on other background material as well. Swedbank AB (publ), SILF. their employees, and other coworkers accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or injury of any kind arising from any errors or omissions in the analyses presented in the Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services.