DAILY COMMODITY REPORT BY EPIC RESEARCH- 21 DECEMBER 2012
20111222 pfl biofuelmarketsdaily
1. Desk: 239-390-2885
BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY December 22, 2011
CBOT ETHANOL RBOB CRUDE HEATING OIL
Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg
Jan 12 2.1730 2.157 0.016 Jan 12 2.6398 2.6199 0.0199 Feb 12 99.53 98.67 0.86 Jan 12 2.9076 2.9087 (0.0011)
Feb 12 2.1700 2.153 0.017 Feb 12 2.6368 2.6215 0.0153 Mar 12 99.70 98.85 0.85 Feb 12 2.9154 2.9176 (0.0022)
Mar 12 2.1930 2.179 0.014 Mar 12 2.6412 2.6303 0.0109 Apr 12 99.86 99.02 0.84 Mar 12 2.9133 2.9159 (0.0026)
Apr 12 2.2100 2.195 0.015 Apr 12 2.7606 2.7550 0.0056 May 12 99.93 99.10 0.83 Apr 12 2.8953 2.9003 (0.0050)
May 12 2.2230 2.212 0.011 May 12 2.7562 2.7517 0.0045 Jun 12 99.82 99.02 0.80 May 12 2.8733 2.8812 (0.0079)
Jun 12 2.2350 2.224 0.011 Jun 12 2.7350 2.7324 0.0026 Jul 12 99.58 98.83 0.75 Jun 12 2.8552 2.8657 (0.0105)
CORN SOYBEANS WHEAT NATGAS
Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg Month Settle Prev Chg
Mar 12 617.50 616.50 1.00 Jan 12 1162.25 1153.75 8.50 Mar 12 621.75 617.00 4.75 Jan 12 3.169 3.155 0.014
May 12 626.25 625.25 1.00 Mar 12 1171.75 1163.25 8.50 May 12 640.00 635.75 4.25 Feb 12 3.206 3.198 0.008
Jul 12 632.25 631.75 0.50 May 12 1182.00 1173.75 8.25 Jul 12 655.25 652.25 3.00 Mar 12 3.241 3.239 0.002
Sep 12 591.50 592.75 (1.25) Jul 12 1191.50 1183.75 7.75 Sep 12 672.50 670.00 2.50 Apr 12 3.302 3.302 0.000
Dec 12 566.50 570.75 (4.25) Aug 12 1189.00 1182.00 7.00 Dec 12 693.50 690.75 2.75 May 12 3.353 3.352 0.001
Mar 13 578.75 582.75 (4.00) Sep 12 1182.00 1177.25 4.75 Mar 13 709.25 706.50 2.75 Jun 12 3.400 3.399 0.001
Ethanol Crush Spread Pricing A decline in US weekly jobless claims and an uptick in leading economic indicators set a positive tone to
Jan 12 (0.0906) Q3 11 (0.069) markets on what was overall a light volume day. Crude traded above $100 for the first time in a week but
settled just short of that mark at $99.53 for a gain of 86 cents. Products were mixed as heating oil was
Feb 12 (0.0990) Q4 11 (0.044)
marginally lower closing at $2.9154 and RBOB gained 1.53 cents to $2.6368. Ethanol futures added
Mar 12 (0.0346) Q1 12 0.131 another 1.5 cents across the Q1 contracts, with Jan settling at $2.173. Physical markets were thin but FOB
Apr 12 (0.0745) Q2 12 0.184 NE on BN traded $2.00 and Argo traded $2.22. RIN values were flat, although volumes picked up as
traders worked to close out and positions and obligated parties squared up requirements. Corn futures
May 12 (0.0381) Q312 0.070
rallied to near the 50 day moving average in Mar after a strong weekly export sales report including
Nationwide Ethanol Indicative Pricing shipments of 1.3 million metric tonnes which was the highest level of the marketing year. With the failure
Location Bid Ask to break above the 50day moving average at $6.29, some profit taking took place into the close and
March corn lost 5 cents in the last 15 minutes to settle at 6.175, a gain of a just a penny on the day.
Argo ITT 2.210 2.230 Soybeans also saw a fairly bullish weekly export sales report as China remained a leading destination for
New York 2.300 2.330 US beans and net sales of 653,000 that were on the high end of estimates and above consensus
expectations. Traders are moving out of January and into March where beans closed up 8.5 cents to
Gulf Coast 2.310 2.330
$11.7175. Soybean oil also rallied as export sales for oil were 148,000 metric tonnes, helping the March
Los Angeles 2.190 2.220 f contract climb 2% to 50.80.
DOE Storage (mbbl) F/X NEAR MARKET SUMMARY
Periods Crude Gasoline Distillate USD Index 79.95 Energy
This Week 323.6 218.4 139.1 Brazilian Real 1.854 WTI (Cash) 99.40
Last Week 334.2 218.8 141.5 Canadian Dollar 1.0207 Brent 107.66
Last Year 340.7 217.2 160.7 Euro 1.3052 NYMEX Crude 99.53
Change -10.6 -1.0 -2.4 Japanese Yen 78.16 B100 SME Chicago 4.63
Front Month Ethanol Crush Spread B100 SME Gulf Coast 4.81
B100 FAME Chicago 4.50
8.00 1.5
B100 FAME Gulf Co. 4.61
Ag Products
7.50 1 White Grease (cnt/lb) 38.94
Yellow Grease (cnt/lb) 33.50
Tallow (cnt/lb) 47.50
7.00 0.5
Soybean Meal 298.40
Soybean Oil 50.45
6.50 0
Canola (CAD Dollar) 517.00
Sugar (cnt/lb) 23.44
Dry DDG-Chicago(wkly 201.50
6.00 -0.5 Market Indices
DJ-Commodity Index 141.099
5.50 -1
DJ Industrials 12169.7
10/13/2011 10/23/2011 11/2/2011 11/12/2011 11/22/2011 12/2/2011 12/12/2011 12/22/2011
NASDAQ 2599.45
EtOH x 2.8 Corn Crush Spread S&P 500 1254.00
Gold 1607.70
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation
of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other
person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
2. PFL BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY COMMENTARY December 22, 2011
RBOB/Ethanol/RINs
3.00 0.10
2.90 0.09
2.80 0.08
2.70 0.07
2.60 0.06
2.50 0.05
2.40 0.04
2.30 0.03
2.20 0.02
2.10 0.01
2.00 0.00
13-Oct 2-Nov 22-Nov 12-Dec
RBOB Ethanol 10 E RINs 11 E RINS
Ethanol RIN Pricing (cts/RIN) Biodiesel RIN Pricing (cts/RIN)
Year Type Bid Ask Year Type Bid Ask
2010 D6 0.10 0.20 2010 D4 130.00 134.00
2010 D3 90.00 105.00 2010 D5 60.00 70.00
2011 D6 0.30 0.35 2011 D4 125.00 129.00
2011 D3 113.00 113.00 2011 D5 79.00 81.00
2012 D6 2.00 2.85 2012 D4 145.00 155.00
2012 D3 113.00 113.00 2012 D5 90.00 95.00
D6 = Corn Ethanol RIN D4 = Biodiesel RIN
D3 = Cellulosic Ethanol RIN D5 = Advanced Biodiesel or Renewable Diesel RIN
RBOB CBOT Ethanol RBOB/Etoh Ethanol Swaps Nationwide Etoh Pricing
Month(s) Spread CBOT Location Bid Ask
Jan 12 2.6398 2.1730 (0.4668) Month(s) Bid Ask Atlanta/Doraville 2.330 2.350
Feb 12 2.6368 2.1700 (0.4668) Jan-12 2.165 2.180 Chicago Rule 11 2.140 2.160
Mar 12 2.6412 2.1930 (0.4482) Feb-12 2.185 2.200 Dallas 2.150 2.170
Apr 12 2.7606 2.2100 (0.5506) Q1 12 2.185 2.200 FOB NE BN 1.990 2.000
May 12 2.7562 2.2230 (0.5332) Q2 12 2.230 2.255 FOB NE UP 2.000 2.020
Jun 12 2.7350 2.2350 (0.5000) Q3 12 2.200 2.220 Northern California 2.140 2.160
Jul 12 2.7099 2.2480 (0.4619) Q4 12 2.095 2.115 Pacifc Northwest 2.160 2.180
Soybean Oil/Heating Oil/Biodiesl RINs
2.0000
4.30
4.10
1.8000
3.90
1.6000
3.70
3.50 1.4000
26.85
3.30
1.2000
3.10
1.0000
2.90
2.70 0.8000
13-Oct 23-Oct 2-Nov 12-Nov 22-Nov 2-Dec 12-Dec 22-Dec
BO $/gal HO 10 BD 11 BD
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any
offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.
3. PFL BIOFUEL MARKETS DAILY COMMENTARY December 22, 2011
ETHANOL CHART CORN
R3 2.337 660 R3 650.0
2.800 R2 2.287 650 R2 640.6
2.700 R1 2.240 640
R1 630.1
630
2.600 S1 2.110 620
S1 605.4
2.500 S2 2.070 610 S2 594.9
2.400 S3 2.031 600 S3 585.9
2.300 5DMA 2.131 590
5DMA 607.2
580
2.200
20DMA 2.249 570
20DMA 599.7
2.100
100DMA 2.606 560 100DMA 639.5
2.000 31-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov 15-Dec
7-Nov 22-Nov 7-Dec 22-Dec
RBOB SOYBEANS
2.8
R3 2.8083 1240
R3 1226.0
2.75
R2 2.7498 R2 1203.2
1220
R1 2.7214 R1 1186.0
2.7
1200
S1 2.5629 S1 1139.5
2.65
S2 2.5141 1180 S2 1124.0
2.6
S3 2.4671 1160 S3 1098.5
2.55
5DMA 2.5882 1140
5DMA 1146.4
2.5
20DMA 2.5704 20DMA 1138.2
1120
2.45 100DMA 2.6835 100DMA 1220.7
1100
2.4
31-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov 15-Dec
31-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov 15-Dec
.
CRUDE WHEAT
R3 110.59 665
R3 671.4
102
R2 105.88 655 R2 661.4
R1 102.61 645 R1 647.7
97 S1 96.63 635
S1 597.8
625
S2 93.90 S2 586.6
615
92 S3 90.48 605
S3 752.2
5DMA 97.65 595
5DMA 608.7
87 20DMA 97.45 585 20DMA 598.6
100DMA 93.78 575 100DMA 637.6
82 565
31-Oct 12-Nov 24-Nov 6-Dec 18-Dec 31-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov 15-Dec
HEATING OIL NATURAL GAS
3.2 R3 3.0752 R3 3.445
3.15 R2 2.9898 3.9 R2 3.336
3.1
R1 2.9444 3.8 R1 3.234
3.05
S1 2.8717 3.7 S1 3.107
3
2.95
S2 2.8367 3.6 S2 3.018
2.9 S3 2.7652 3.5 S3 2.971
2.85 5DMA 2.8750 3.4 5DMA 3.157
2.8 20DMA 2.9165 3.3
20DMA 3.295
3.2
2.75 100DMA 2.9687 100DMA 3.656
2.7 3.1
31-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov 15-Dec 26-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 10-Dec
WEATHER
City H/L Rain is expected today from East Texas to the Southern Appalachians and into
Chicago 40/26 central North Carolina with much of the Southeast seeing some rain and
thunderstorms overnight tonight. Rain will start to move into southwestern
New York 56/42 Pennsylvania and West Virginia late today spreading through the Mid‐Atlantic
Houston 67/45 and as far north as Southern New England by tonight. The Southern Half of New
York into Massachusetts expects a mix of rain and snow tonight. The Ohio valley
Los Angeles 65/43 expects rain with some potentially heavy downfalls today and tonight. Snow is
Washington D.C. 60/46 expected for much of Colorado and New Mexico today and into tonight. Another
system should start bringing in rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest
St. Louis 46/29 Coast tonight. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected in Southern California.
Naples, Florida 82/64
This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are
not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources
believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness
or correctness. Copyright 2007 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved.