impact of human on biodiversity

1. Transformation by Innovation
in Distance Education
Nick Harvey
The impact of humans
on biodiversity
The Transformation by Innovation in Distance Education (TIDE) project is enhancing distance learning in Myanmar by building
the capacity of Higher Education staff and students, enhancing programmes of study, and strengthening systems that support
Higher Educational Institutions in Myanmar. TIDE is part of the UK-Aid-funded Strategic Partnerships for Higher Education
Innovation and Reform (SPHEIR) programme(www.spheir.org.uk). SPHEIR is managed on behalf of FCDO by a consortium led
by the British Council that includes PwC and Universities UK International. The TIDE project will close in May 2021.

2. The impact of humans on
biodiversity

3. Time of start of major extinction
episodes (years BP)
Africa and SE Asia 50,000
Australia 50,000
North Eurasia 13,000
North America 11,000
South America 10,000
West Indies 4,000
New Zealand 900
Madagascar 800
Late Pleistocene Mass Extinctions

4. IPBES
Global
Assessment
Report 2019

5. Significant and largely irreversible
changes to species diversity
– The distribution of species on Earth
is becoming more homogenous
– Humans have increased the species
extinction rate by as much as 1,000
times over background rates typical
over the planet’s history (medium
certainty)
– 10–30% of mammal, bird, and
amphibian species are currently
threatened with extinction (medium
to high certainty)

6. Declines are geographically variable
https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-gb/about-the-living-planet-report

7. Declines are taxonomically variable
https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-gb/about-the-living-planet-report

8. Abundance is declining as well as diversity
https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-gb/about-the-living-planet-report
Overall decline of 60% in species population sizes from 1970 to 2016

9. Unprecedented change to ecosystems
– More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in
the 150 years between 1700 and 1850
– 20% of the worlds coral reefs were lost and 20% degraded in the last
several decades
– 35% of mangrove area has been lost in the last several decades
– Amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960
– Withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled since 1960

10. Loss of natural habitats: past and future

11. Land Use Change
Ellis et al (2010) Anthropogenic transformation 1700-2000. Global Ecology and Biogeography

12. Spatial variation

13. Climate
Change
USGCRP, 2017:
Climate Science
Special Report:
Fourth National
Climate
Assessment,
Volume I
[Wuebbles, D.J.,
D.W. Fahey, K.A.
Hibbard, D.J.
Dokken, B.C.
Stewart, and T.K.
Maycock (eds.)].
U.S. Global
Change Research
Program,
Washington, DC,
USA, 470 pp.

14. Climate Change
USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment,
Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K.
Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp.

15. Hayhoe, K., J. Edmonds, R.E. Kopp, A.N. LeGrande, B.M. Sanderson, M.F. Wehner, and
D.J. Wuebbles, 2017: Climate models, scenarios, and projections. In: Climate Science
Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W.
Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global
Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 133-160, doi: 10.7930/J0WH2N54.

16. Spatial variation

17. Rockstrom et al (2009) Nature 461:472-475

18. The disruption of earth system
processes
• Climate change
• Rate of biodiversity loss (terrestrial and marine)
• Interference with the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles
• Stratospheric ozone depletion
• Ocean acidification
• Global freshwater use
• Change in land use
• Chemical pollution
• Atmospheric aerosol loading
Rockstrom et al (2009) Nature 461:472-475

19. Rockstrom et al (2009) Nature 461:472-475

20. Current status of the control variables for seven of the planetary boundaries.The green zone
is the safe operating space, the yellow represents the zone of uncertainty (increasing risk),
and the red is a high-risk zone.
Will Steffen et al. Science 2015;347:1259855
Published by AAAS

21. Welcome to the Anthropocene
(Crutzen & Stoermer (2000) Global Change Newsletter 41:17–18)
• Holocene (last 10,000 years) - relative climatic and
environmental stability
• Anthropocene – the epoch of man
– started in: 1800? or 1945?
But see Caro et al. (2012) Conserv Biol 26:185-8

22. Change in human impacts over time
• Early humans had a hunter-gatherer lifestyle (fires, hunting)
• Rise and spread of agriculture ~12,000 years ago (changes in
land use and land cover)
• Increase in human population size (more fire, hunting, land
use/cover change and overexploitation of natural ‘resources’
- timber, fish, whales, etc, etc.)

23. The increasing rates of change in human activity since the
beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
Steffen, Will, et al. "The trajectory of the
Anthropocene: the great acceleration." The
Anthropocene Review 2.1 (2015): 81-98.

25. The heart of the problem

26. Exponential human growth cannot continue
The earth can only support a finite number of people
More people – less resources/person
World’s Population Size
2020: 7.8 billion (estimated)
2050: 9.7 billion?
2100: ???
(UN estimates)

27. Population growth is not evenly distributed
• Half of the world’s population growth is expected to come from: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of
the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, USA, Uganda and Indonesia
• The group of 47 least developed countries (LDCs) is projected to increase by 33% from 2017 to 2030,
reaching 1.9 billion in 2050.
• ~83 countries (comprising 46% of the world’s population) now have fertility rates below the level
required for the replacement of successive generations (~2.1 births per woman). The ten most
populous countries in this group are China, USA, Brazil, Russia, Japan, Vietnam, Germany, Iran,
Thailand, and the UK.
Data from: The 2017 Revision of World Population Prospects from the United Nations Department of
Economic and Social Affairs.

28. Resource use is not evenly distributed
Data from: The 2017 Revision of World Population Prospects from the United Nations Department of
Economic and Social Affairs.

29. Reading
• Ellis, et al. (2010) Anthropogenic transformation of the
biomes, 1700 to 2000. Global ecology and biogeography
• Thuiller (2007) Climate change and the ecologist Nature
• Butchart (2010) Global biodiversity: indicators of recent
declines Science
• Foley (2011) Solutions for a cultivated planet Nature