The document outlines Japan's political outlook for 2015, detailing significant political events, leadership elections, and proposed reforms. It presents various scenarios for Prime Minister Abe's cabinet, including potential outcomes based on public engagement and effectiveness. Key themes include revitalization of regions and the importance of strategic planning in governance.

1. Political Outlook for Japan in 2015
Michael Cucek
Date:
9 January 2015
Venue:
Institute for Contemporary Asian Studies
Temple University Japan

2. Calendar of Significant Political Events 1
2015
January 11 Saga gubernatorial election
January 14 Finalization of FY2015 Budget
January 16 Four-country Mideast tour
January 18 DPJ leadership election
January 25 Yamanashi gubernatorial election
January 26 Opening Regular Session of the Diet
April 12 + 26 Unified Local Elections
May Agriculture system reform plan finalized?
May Committee hearings on collective security amendments to laws
June Japan-U.S. Defense Guidelines talks?
June Agreement with local authorities on Takahama reactor restart?

3. Calendar of Significant Political Events 2
2015
June Third Arrow reform package, Version 3.0
July First anniversary of DPRK abductee talks
August 15 70th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in WWII
September LDP presidential election
November G20 (Turkey) + APEC (Philippines) + ASEAN (Malaysia) meetings
December Compilation of FY2016 Budget
2016
July House of Councillors election
2017
April Rise of the consumption tax to 10%
2018
September End of second term as LDP president

4. Longest Serving Post-1945 Prime Ministers
2798
2616
1980
1806
1575
1109
745
SATO Eisaku
YOSHIDA Shigeru
KOIZUMI Jun’ichiro
NAKASONE Yasuhiro
HAYATO Ikeda
ABE Shinzo *
Hatoyama Ichiro
* as of 9 January 2015

5. Historical Popularity of Prime Ministers/Cabinets
Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Obuchi
Mori
Koizumi
Abe 1
Fukuda
Aso
Hatoyama
Kan
Noda
Abe 2

6. Scenarios For Abe Cabinet in 2015
Scenario 1 : Renewed Vigor
Scenario 2 : Complacence
Scenario 3 : Enemy of the People
Scenario 4 : All of the Above

7. Municipalities of >10,000
>50%
Municipalities of <10,000
>50%
Job #1 = Revitalization of the Regions

8. Abe Shinzo’s “Mizuho no Kuni”
Terraced rice paddies
Yuya Township, Yamaguchi Prefecture

9. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE
January 2014 – Final Slide

10. Any Road
“If You Don’t Know Where You Are Going
Any Road Will Take You There”
- George Harrison (1943-2001)

11. Michael Thomas Cucek
Adjunct Fellow
Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies, Temple University Japan
Advisor
Langley Esquire K. K.
Contact email: MTCucek@gmail.com
Skype: michael.thomas.cucek
Shisaku (a blog): http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/
Follow me on Twitter: @MichaelTCucek