Michael Cucek: Japanese politics and policy: The agenda for 2015

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Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies (ICAS) at TUJ

Following a snap election, nuclear reactor restarts, a shrinking economy, rising prices, a sinking yen, the advent of the Special Secrets Act, the revision of the Defense Guidelines, China pressures, a prime minister in a hurry…a lot lies on the plate as Nagata-cho rings in the New Year. ICAS Adjunct Fellow Michael Cucek offers his take on the state of politics and government in advance of the 2015 Regular Session of the Diet, with his forecasts of possible turning points and issues salient in the near and intermediate futures.

Education

Political Outlook for Japan in 2015
Michael Cucek
Date:
9 January 2015
Venue:
Institute for Contemporary Asian Studies
Temple University Japan

Calendar of Significant Political Events 1
2015
January 11 Saga gubernatorial election
January 14 Finalization of FY2015 Budget
January 16 Four-country Mideast tour
January 18 DPJ leadership election
January 25 Yamanashi gubernatorial election
January 26 Opening Regular Session of the Diet
April 12 + 26 Unified Local Elections
May Agriculture system reform plan finalized?
May Committee hearings on collective security amendments to laws
June Japan-U.S. Defense Guidelines talks?
June Agreement with local authorities on Takahama reactor restart?

Calendar of Significant Political Events 2
2015
June Third Arrow reform package, Version 3.0
July First anniversary of DPRK abductee talks
August 15 70th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in WWII
September LDP presidential election
November G20 (Turkey) + APEC (Philippines) + ASEAN (Malaysia) meetings
December Compilation of FY2016 Budget
2016
July House of Councillors election
2017
April Rise of the consumption tax to 10%
2018
September End of second term as LDP president

Longest Serving Post-1945 Prime Ministers
2798
2616
1980
1806
1575
1109
745
SATO Eisaku
YOSHIDA Shigeru
KOIZUMI Jun’ichiro
NAKASONE Yasuhiro
HAYATO Ikeda
ABE Shinzo *
Hatoyama Ichiro
* as of 9 January 2015

Historical Popularity of Prime Ministers/Cabinets
Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Obuchi
Mori
Koizumi
Abe 1
Fukuda
Aso
Hatoyama
Kan
Noda
Abe 2

Scenarios For Abe Cabinet in 2015
Scenario 1 : Renewed Vigor
Scenario 2 : Complacence
Scenario 3 : Enemy of the People
Scenario 4 : All of the Above

Municipalities of >10,000
>50%
Municipalities of <10,000
>50%
Job #1 = Revitalization of the Regions

Abe Shinzo’s “Mizuho no Kuni”
Terraced rice paddies
Yuya Township, Yamaguchi Prefecture

RESISTANCE IS FUTILE
January 2014 – Final Slide

Any Road
“If You Don’t Know Where You Are Going
Any Road Will Take You There”
- George Harrison (1943-2001)

Michael Thomas Cucek
Adjunct Fellow
Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies, Temple University Japan
Advisor
Langley Esquire K. K.
Contact email: MTCucek@gmail.com
Skype: michael.thomas.cucek
Shisaku (a blog): http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/
Follow me on Twitter: @MichaelTCucek

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Michael Cucek: Japanese politics and policy: The agenda for 2015

1. Political Outlook for Japan in 2015 Michael Cucek Date: 9 January 2015 Venue: Institute for Contemporary Asian Studies Temple University Japan

2. Calendar of Significant Political Events 1 2015 January 11 Saga gubernatorial election January 14 Finalization of FY2015 Budget January 16 Four-country Mideast tour January 18 DPJ leadership election January 25 Yamanashi gubernatorial election January 26 Opening Regular Session of the Diet April 12 + 26 Unified Local Elections May Agriculture system reform plan finalized? May Committee hearings on collective security amendments to laws June Japan-U.S. Defense Guidelines talks? June Agreement with local authorities on Takahama reactor restart?

3. Calendar of Significant Political Events 2 2015 June Third Arrow reform package, Version 3.0 July First anniversary of DPRK abductee talks August 15 70th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in WWII September LDP presidential election November G20 (Turkey) + APEC (Philippines) + ASEAN (Malaysia) meetings December Compilation of FY2016 Budget 2016 July House of Councillors election 2017 April Rise of the consumption tax to 10% 2018 September End of second term as LDP president

4. Longest Serving Post-1945 Prime Ministers 2798 2616 1980 1806 1575 1109 745 SATO Eisaku YOSHIDA Shigeru KOIZUMI Jun’ichiro NAKASONE Yasuhiro HAYATO Ikeda ABE Shinzo * Hatoyama Ichiro * as of 9 January 2015

5. Historical Popularity of Prime Ministers/Cabinets Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Obuchi Mori Koizumi Abe 1 Fukuda Aso Hatoyama Kan Noda Abe 2

6. Scenarios For Abe Cabinet in 2015 Scenario 1 : Renewed Vigor Scenario 2 : Complacence Scenario 3 : Enemy of the People Scenario 4 : All of the Above

7. Municipalities of >10,000 >50% Municipalities of <10,000 >50% Job #1 = Revitalization of the Regions

8. Abe Shinzo’s “Mizuho no Kuni” Terraced rice paddies Yuya Township, Yamaguchi Prefecture

9. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE January 2014 – Final Slide

10. Any Road “If You Don’t Know Where You Are Going Any Road Will Take You There” - George Harrison (1943-2001)

11. Michael Thomas Cucek Adjunct Fellow Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies, Temple University Japan Advisor Langley Esquire K. K. Contact email: MTCucek@gmail.com Skype: michael.thomas.cucek Shisaku (a blog): http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/ Follow me on Twitter: @MichaelTCucek

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