Presenter: Michael Cucek January 7, 2016 ICAS evening lecture at Temple University Japan Campus

1. Political Outlook
Michael Cucek
Date:
7 January 2016
Venue:
Temple University Japan, Azabu Campus

2. Political Outlook 2016
 House of Councillors election, what’s new?
 What would be significant results
 Political calendar
 If not Abe, then who?

3. District Seat Reforms for 2016
Source: Blogos
Shimane-
Tottori
Tokushima
Kochi
Shimane
Tottori
Miyagi
Niigata
Nagano
Hokkaido
Tokyo
Aichi
Hyogo
Fukuoka
Shimane-
Tottori
Tokushima-
Kochi
 10 district seats up; 10
district seats down
 Hokkaido, Tokyo, Aichi,
Hyogo, Fukuoka gain;
Miyagi, Niigata, Nagano,
Tottori, Shimane,
Tokushima, Kochi lose
 Maximum disparity falls to
2.97

4. Voting Age Reforms for 2016
 voting age 20 → 18
 First change to franchise since
1946 (women)
 Number of newly enfranchised
=
2.4 million
 18, 19 year olds will be charged
as adults for violations of
election laws

5. 20-29 50-59
All age groups60-69
30-39 40-49
70 +
Youth Apathy
Voting rates in House of Councillors elections, by Age Cohort

6. Silly Party Names
 日本を元気にする会 = The Assembly to Energy Japan
(3: 1 district, 2 proportional)
 日本の心を大切にする党 = Party of Japanese Kokoro
(1: 1 district)
 生活の党と山本太郎となかまたち =
The People's Life Party & Taro Yamamoto and Friends
(2: 1 district, 1 proportional)
 新党改革・無所属の会 = New Renaissance Party and
Group of Independents
(1: 1 proportional)
(# of seats up for election)

7. Party Support in 2015
Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute
39.4
41.2
36.7 37.8 37.5 35.8
34.7 34.3 34.7
35.6
37.0
37.5
9.2 10.3 10.9
9.2 7.8 9.4 7.7
10.9 9.8 8.6 8.4 8.5
39.6
36.2
39.9 39.1
43.1 43.2
46.3
44.1
45.2 46.0
44.5
41.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2015 J 2015 F 2015 M 2015 A 2015 M 2015 J 2015 J 2015 A 2015 S 2015 O 2015 N 2015D
LDP DPJ Komeito
Communists Innovation Osaka Ishin no Kai
Next Generation Socialists People's Life and the Friends of Yamamoto Taro
The Party to Energize Japan Other party No party/don't know

8. Party Support in December 2015
Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute
LDP, 37.5
DPJ, 8.5
Komeito, 4.7
Communists, 5.0
Innovation, 0.5
Osaka Ishin no Kai, 1.8
Next Generation, 0
Socialists, 0.5
People's Life and the Friends
of Yamamoto Taro, 0.1
The Party to Energize Japan,
0.0
Other party, 0.2
No party/don't
know, 41.3

9. 114
20
59
11
7
65433325
LDP Komeito DPJ JCP Osaka Ishin
AEJ JIP PJK Unaligned Club DSP
PLTY&F Renaissance independents
House of Councillors Seats as of January 2016
242 seats total
6 year terms,
staggered
146 district
96 proportional
2/3 of seats = 160
Constitution Revision
Line

10. House of Councillors Election 2016 – Up for Election
48
9
42
3
2
3
4112213
LDP Komeito DPJ JCP Osaka Ishin
AEJ JIP PJK Unaligned Club DSP
PLTY&F Renaissance independents

11. Voting Rates of House of Councillors Elections
1947 - 2013
Source: MIC

12. 114
20
59
11
7
65433325
LDP Komeito DPJ JCP Osaka Ishin
AEJ JIP PJK Unaligned Club DSP
PLTY&F Renaissance independents
House of Councillors Election 2016 – Battle Zones
242 seats total
6 year terms,
staggered
146 district
96 proportional
2/3 of seats = 160
Constitution Revision
Line
+ 8+ 26
X
X
122

13. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE
If Not Abe, Who?

14. One Party, One Faction, One Kantei, One Man
5 2 1 2 1 1 1 0
95
53
45
36 34
20
14
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Hosoda Nukaga Kishida Aso Nikai Ishiba Ishihara Santo
# in 2015 Cabinet # of members
* Includes PM
Abe
+ 2 “Tanigaki Group”

15. Longest Serving Post-1945 Prime Ministers
2798
2616
1980
1806
1575
1472
745
SATO Eisaku
YOSHIDA Shigeru
KOIZUMI Jun’ichiro
NAKASONE Yasuhiro
HAYATO Ikeda
ABE Shinzo *
Hatoyama Ichiro
* as of 7 January 2016

16. Historical Popularity of Prime Ministers/Cabinets
Source: NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Obuchi
Mori
Koizumi
Abe 1
Fukuda
Aso
Hatoyama
Kan
Noda
Abe 2

17. The Abe Cabinet Paradox
Source: Sankei Shimbun of 15 December 2015
Cabinet Economic Social Foreign
Support 47.8 36.7 26.3 43.6
Do Not Support 41.2 26.3 62.0 48.3
Don’t Know/Can’t
Say
11.0 8.6 11.7 8.1
Sankei Shimbun FNN Poll conducted 12-13 December 2015

18. Post-Abe Futures
? 8
310
8
4

19. LDP September Non-Election
NODA Seiko
8 Elections
3 September 1960
Sophia University
ABE Shinzo
8 Elections
21 September 1954
Seikei University
3rd Generation 2nd Generation *

20. Was your father or grandfather prime minister?
The Era of the Obocchama Prime Ministers
The Family Business

21. LDP Seniority Rules Short-Circuited
How old were you when your father died?
25 21
27 26 26

22. LDP Seniority Rules Short-Circuited
How old were you when your father died?
25 21
27 26 26
24

23. Michael Thomas Cucek
Adjunct Professor
Faculty of the Social Science, Waseda University
Adjunct Professor
Department of Political Science, Temple University Japan
Contact email: shisakublog@gmail.com
Skype: michael.thomas.cucek
Shisaku (a blog): http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/
Follow me on Twitter: @MichaelTCucek