Public Lecture Presentation Slide (9.27.2012)
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This document contains information about four major disasters: the 1923 Tokyo earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, and the 2005 Hurricane Katrina. It finds that social infrastructure, rather than factors like wealth, governance or population density, is most critical for recovery from disasters. It presents a new theoretical and empirical approach to studying disasters and suggests new policy approaches for decision makers and NGOs.
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Public Lecture Presentation Slide (9.27.2012)
- 3. Disaster Deaths Cost of Urban / rural Level of Analysis Damage 1923 Tokyo 105,000 $1 billion Highly populated 39 neighborhoods Earthquake urban area in Tokyo from 1922 to 1933 1995 Kobe 6,800 $100 billion Highly populated 9 wards in Kobe Earthquake urban area from 1991 to 2006 2004 Indian 130,000 (in India $4.5 billion Primarily rural, 41 villages, 1,600 Ocean Tsunami alone) coastal fishing respondents in villages state of Tamil Nadu 2005 Hurricane 1,800 $150 billion Mixed urban area 114 zip codes in Katrina New Orleans
- 10. Social infrastructure - not wealth, governance, pop. density, etc. - is most critical in recovery New theoretical and empirical approach to studying disaster Suggests new policy approaches for decision makers and NGOs
- 11. .15 Population Growth Rate (Percentage) Chi-squared value: .001 0 .05 -.05 .1 Low levels of social capital High levels of social capital
- 13. Predicted Population Growth Rate -.02 0 .02 .04 .06 60 50 Voter Turn Out (Percentage) 80 70
- 14. Data from Katsuji Nagata A Before Fukushima B before 2001: 231 Population 191 180 Average age 51.1 50.6 # Households 73 64 Household age 62.4 59.2 Average Household 442 man 402.8 man Income Number of Years in 32.3 43.4 the Community % born in the 9.2 71.9 community % Renting 34.7 15.9 % Working 64.6 69.8
- 15. Chuo-ku Higashinada-ku Hyogo-ku 120000 220000 130000 115000 200000 120000 110000 180000 110000 105000 160000 100000 100000 Kita-ku Nada-ku Nagata-ku Population 240000 130000 140000 230000 120000 120000 220000 110000 210000 100000 100000 200000 90000 80000 Nishi-ku Suma-ku Tarumi-ku 250000 190000 240000 185000 235000 200000 180000 230000 175000 225000 150000 170000 220000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
- 17. .03 Predicted Population Growth Rate .01 .02 0 0 .0001 .0002 .0003 Lagged Number of NPOs Created per Capita