This document discusses export projections and risks for US meat exports to various countries in Asia and other key markets. It notes that transportation costs make shipping meat directly more economical than shipping feed. Recent free trade agreements with South Korea and Colombia have added over 100 million new customers. However, risks include disease issues in Asia limiting pork imports, and competition from the EU as the euro weakens against the dollar. China is a major growth market but also presents disease risks as backyard pig farming transitions to industrial production.

1. Export Projections and Associated Risks Dermot Hayes Iowa State University

4. Proportion of total US meat exported

7. Chicken heads are a delicacy

18. China-US Comparison

21. Miles of new construction outside every city

30. China is driving US prices for some cuts

35. S. Korean Pork Market 1980:2024

43. Density Density Density

45. Tons of Carcass per Sow per Year

46. Histogram of Expected Gross Margin per Hog in 2005: Expected Margin over costs: $21 per Animal

47. Histogram of Expected Gross Margin per Hog in 2012: Expected Margin over costs: $21 per Animal