E E K L Y
O Blow by Blow
11 NOV – 15 NOV 2013
US gold futures declined further on Friday evening after US non-farm pay rolls
recorded an upside movement. The yellow metal fell below $1330 per troy ounce
again on Friday after declining below $1300. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose
by 204,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent.
Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, and the unemployment
rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in October. Now traders may eye on China. China is
scheduled to declare its inflation and industrial output index on Saturday. Also,
Chinese Communist Party leaders are expected meet for four days starting November
9 to discuss policies.
A positive US non-farm pay rolls, firm US GDP data released on Thursday have sparked
concerns that US Central Bank may start tapering its commodities friendly monetary
stimulus soon. The concerns were seen pulling down the yellow metal in the global
market. Meanwhile, Chinese exports increased higher than projected in October while
import gains accelerated. Exports rose 5.6% in October year-on-year basis. Imports
rose 7.6%, leaving a trade excess of $31.1 billion, the highest in 2013.
US Gold below
$1300 after NonFarm Payrolls,
MCX Gold down.
US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.6 mn barrels during the week
ending November 1, 2013 from the previous week. At 385.4 mn barrels, US crude oil
inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.8 mn barrels last week and are in the
upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while
blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 4.9 mn barrels last week and are at the lower limit of the average range
for this time of year.
Meanwhile, North American shale oil revolution is expected to limit the prospect for
further rise in Brent crude oil prices. “We expect the balance for light sweet barrels in
the Atlantic Basin to gradually shift into surplus towards the end of the year, setting
Brent up for a lower trading range in 1Q14”. The expanding US shale oil production is
freeing up more barrels overseas.
China has gone into copper refilling mode since May and there is potential for further
restocking, if the country targets its previous copper stock levels. The base metal
demand growth has been healthy supported by the power sector. “We believe that
tight scrap availability earlier this year has been offset by record levels of concentrate
imports and Chinese refined copper production reaching fresh all time highs.
Meanwhile, copper financing was seen playing an important role in driving demand for
the base metal.
China’s October import data showed a decline in copper imports. However, imports
are likely to return to their normal stage remaining part of the year amid an upbeat in
manufacturing activity and looser bank policy. China's copper imports declined 11.2
percent in October (month-on-month) due to lower price differentials between
domestic and global copper markets and a week-long holiday. China's official PMI
reported at 51.4, the highest in 18 months, according to the data released by China
Logistics Information Center last week.
US Crude Oil skids
MCX Crude Oil
firm demand may
DATE & TIME
Nov 11 All Day
Nov 12 6:00pm
NFIB Small Business Index
Nov 13 9:00pm
Crude Oil Inventories
10-y Bond Auction
Nov 14 12:30am
Federal Budget Balance
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
Fed Chairperson Designate Yellen
Nov 15 7:00pm
Natural Gas Storage
30-y Bond Auction
Empire State Manufacturing Index
Import Prices m/m
Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
Wholesale Inventories m/m
MCX GOLD on its daily charts moved in
triangle pattern and form a lower
consolidation around lower band of
triangle. Now, if it breaks 29550 then it
may find support near 29150 below
which breakout of triangle pattern is
expected and major support is seen
around 28350. On higher side 30300 is
seen as immediate resistance for it,
closing above indicates more bullish
movement and may find resistance
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 30275 for the targets of 3095031200 with stop loss of 29500.
MCX SILVER last week showed sideways
to bearish movement and consolidates
around trendline on its daily charts.
Now, immediate support for it is seen
around 47700 below which it may drag
towards next support level of 45600. On
other hand if it able to break 49160 on
higher sides then it may find next
resistance around 50400 and it is
expected to test its major resistance of
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 47700 for
target of 45700, with stop loss of 49200.
Crude oil broke its 61.8% retracement
but unable to sustain below it and gave
satisfactory closing above this. After
very long bearish sessions on weekly
chart last week it closed in positive.
Now, if it able to maintain above 61.8%
retracement then more correction is
expected in it towards 50%
retracement i.e. 6225. On lower level
5800 is important support for it.
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
above 6030 for the targets of 6120-6220
with stop loss of 5850.
MCX Copper found vital support of
trend line on its daily chart and took
reversal from it. Now, it is
consolidating around its resistance
level of 460, closing above which may
show bullish movement in it towards
next resistance level of 473. On lower
side, below 445.85 breakout of trend
line is expected and may find next
support in range of 440-437.
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 460, with stop loss of 445 for the
target of 473.