Commodity weekly-technical-report-2013


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Commodity weekly-technical-report-2013

  1. 1. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM W R E E E K L Y P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals, 11 NOV – 15 NOV 2013 Energy…
  2. 2. MAJOR EVENTS US gold futures declined further on Friday evening after US non-farm pay rolls recorded an upside movement. The yellow metal fell below $1330 per troy ounce again on Friday after declining below $1300. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent. Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in October. Now traders may eye on China. China is scheduled to declare its inflation and industrial output index on Saturday. Also, Chinese Communist Party leaders are expected meet for four days starting November 9 to discuss policies. A positive US non-farm pay rolls, firm US GDP data released on Thursday have sparked concerns that US Central Bank may start tapering its commodities friendly monetary stimulus soon. The concerns were seen pulling down the yellow metal in the global market. Meanwhile, Chinese exports increased higher than projected in October while import gains accelerated. Exports rose 5.6% in October year-on-year basis. Imports rose 7.6%, leaving a trade excess of $31.1 billion, the highest in 2013. US Gold below $1300 after NonFarm Payrolls, MCX Gold down. US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.6 mn barrels during the week ending November 1, 2013 from the previous week. At 385.4 mn barrels, US crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.8 mn barrels last week and are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 4.9 mn barrels last week and are at the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Meanwhile, North American shale oil revolution is expected to limit the prospect for further rise in Brent crude oil prices. “We expect the balance for light sweet barrels in the Atlantic Basin to gradually shift into surplus towards the end of the year, setting Brent up for a lower trading range in 1Q14”. The expanding US shale oil production is freeing up more barrels overseas. China has gone into copper refilling mode since May and there is potential for further restocking, if the country targets its previous copper stock levels. The base metal demand growth has been healthy supported by the power sector. “We believe that tight scrap availability earlier this year has been offset by record levels of concentrate imports and Chinese refined copper production reaching fresh all time highs. Meanwhile, copper financing was seen playing an important role in driving demand for the base metal. China’s October import data showed a decline in copper imports. However, imports are likely to return to their normal stage remaining part of the year amid an upbeat in manufacturing activity and looser bank policy. China's copper imports declined 11.2 percent in October (month-on-month) due to lower price differentials between domestic and global copper markets and a week-long holiday. China's official PMI reported at 51.4, the highest in 18 months, according to the data released by China Logistics Information Center last week. US Crude Oil skids despite firm Gasoline demand, MCX Crude Oil recover. Recovery in manufacturing, firm demand may support China Copper refilling.
  3. 3. ECONOMIC CALENDER DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION Nov 11 All Day Bank Holiday Nov 12 6:00pm NFIB Small Business Index Nov 13 9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 1.6M 11:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.66|2.6 Nov 14 12:30am Federal Budget Balance FORECAST PREVIOUS 93.5 93.9 -104.3B 75.1B 5:30am Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 7:00pm Trade Balance -38.7B -38.8B 7:00pm Unemployment Claims 331K 336K Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.3% 2.3% 7:00pm Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.1% 0.0% 8:30pm Fed Chairperson Designate Yellen Testifies 7:00pm 9:00pm 11:31pm Nov 15 7:00pm 7:00pm 7:45pm 7:45pm 8:30pm Natural Gas Storage 35B 30-y Bond Auction 3.76|2.6 Empire State Manufacturing Index 5.2 1.5 Import Prices m/m -0.4% 0.2% Capacity Utilization Rate 78.3% 78.3% Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.6% Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.5%
  4. 4. GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW MCX GOLD on its daily charts moved in triangle pattern and form a lower consolidation around lower band of triangle. Now, if it breaks 29550 then it may find support near 29150 below which breakout of triangle pattern is expected and major support is seen around 28350. On higher side 30300 is seen as immediate resistance for it, closing above indicates more bullish movement and may find resistance around 30950. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 30275 for the targets of 3095031200 with stop loss of 29500. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 29150 28700 28300 30250 31000 31400 SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX SILVER last week showed sideways to bearish movement and consolidates around trendline on its daily charts. Now, immediate support for it is seen around 47700 below which it may drag towards next support level of 45600. On other hand if it able to break 49160 on higher sides then it may find next resistance around 50400 and it is expected to test its major resistance of 52300. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 47700 for target of 45700, with stop loss of 49200. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 47500 46600 45500 49200 50400 51500
  5. 5. CRUDEOIL TECHNICAL VIEW Crude oil broke its 61.8% retracement but unable to sustain below it and gave satisfactory closing above this. After very long bearish sessions on weekly chart last week it closed in positive. Now, if it able to maintain above 61.8% retracement then more correction is expected in it towards 50% retracement i.e. 6225. On lower level 5800 is important support for it. STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 6030 for the targets of 6120-6220 with stop loss of 5850. PIVOT TABLE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 5850 5750 5620 6030 6225 6350 COPPER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Copper found vital support of trend line on its daily chart and took reversal from it. Now, it is consolidating around its resistance level of 460, closing above which may show bullish movement in it towards next resistance level of 473. On lower side, below 445.85 breakout of trend line is expected and may find next support in range of 440-437. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy above 460, with stop loss of 445 for the target of 473. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 445 440 433 460 473 480