WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

W

R
E
E E K L Y
P
O Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
21 OCT – 25 OCT 2013

Energy…
MAJOR EVENTS
US Gold futures fell close to $6 an ounce on Friday trading on profit booking as prices
zoomed on Thursday fo...
ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Oct 21, 5:30pm

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

7:30pm

Existing...
GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD on its daily charts unable to
sustain on lower level and showed
some correction towards the 5...
CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
Crude oil last week showed sideways
to bearish movements and closed
below 50% retracement and also...
DISCLAIMER

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
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WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT BY TRIFID RESEARCH

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WEEKLY COMMODITY TECHNICAL REPORT BY TRIFID RESEARCH

  1. 1. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM W R E E E K L Y P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals, 21 OCT – 25 OCT 2013 Energy…
  2. 2. MAJOR EVENTS US Gold futures fell close to $6 an ounce on Friday trading on profit booking as prices zoomed on Thursday following the temporary deal to end budget impasse on Wednesday. Gold prices gained 3% on Thursday after the dollar dropped to eightmonth lows and a Chinese rating agency downgraded the US sovereign rating. Inflationary pressures in the economy are likely to continue due to lower interest rates and US stimulus package still in place. Gold fell about 4 percent during the U.S. government shutdown, but jumped 3 percent on Thursday after the dollar dropped to eight-month lows and a Chinese rating agency downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating. A CME Group report said that a fresh multi month downside breakout in the Dollar provided some added lift to the gold market on Thursday as the decline in the Greenback might be expected to continue well into the future off the concept that the US is poised to see deterioration in its interest rate differential with many other currencies. With the added benefit of soaring equities and sharply lower energy prices, the outlook for the economy at the end of October is likely to be vastly improved relative to the beginning of October and that might provide the gold market with some fresh classic/physically related buying interest. Bears are holding the upper hand in crude oil market even as a stronger growth in China has failed to create bullish sentiments as in metals. WTI Crude Oil November futures at New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $100.61 a barrel and is down 1.3 percent this week following the US debt ceiling agreement and fall in US dollar index. American Petroleum Institute has reported a surge in US crude oil inventories pushing prices further into the bearish zone. WTI is above the middle Bollinger band at about $100.31 a barrel. Buy orders tend to be clustered close to chart-support levels, Bloomberg reported. Brent for December settlement advanced as much as 0.38 percent, to $109.52 a barrel on the Londonbased ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $8.91 to WTI for the same month. The spread narrowed for a second day yesterday to $8.24. US Gold falls on profit booking, Fed tapering delay support. Bears monopolise Crude Oil, short MCX Crude Oct, Nov. Crude Oil prices edged up this morning on positive Chinese economic data, and MCX November contract currently trading at 6224, up by 0.68 percent. Tracking positive trends in London Metal Exchange and upbeat China GDP growth data for the third quarter of 2013. China's GDP growth has risen to 7.8% in third quarter compared to 7.5% in the first quarter. Industial output growth had moderated to 10.2% in September compared to 10.4% in August. India Copper The uptick in growth refelcts both better exports and solid domestic demand, although the easing of industrial output in September indicates that the recovery is tepid. Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.2 percent to $7,247.25 a metric ton at 9:23 a.m. in Shanghai. The metal gained 0.6 percent this week. bullish on China MCX Copper futures for November delivery was seen trading up by 0.99%. at Rs. 452.05 per kilogram at 15.20 hrs IST on Friday. LME Copper for delivery in three months was seen trading up by 0.54% at $7272 a metric ton as of 1:10 PM IST on Friday. futures to be GDP growth, US budget deal.
  3. 3. ECONOMIC CALENDER DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS Oct 21, 5:30pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks 7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.31M 5.48M 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 3.4M 6.8M Oct 22, 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 179K 169K 6:00pm Unemployment Rate 7.3% 7.3% 6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2% 7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 0 0 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 85B 90B Oct 23, 6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.3% 0.0% HPI m/m 0.8% 1.0% Unemployment Claims 341K 358K Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.8 New Home Sales 427K 421K JOLTS Job Openings 3.77M 3.69M 6:30pm 8:00pm Oct 24, 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories Natural Gas Storage Oct 25, 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% -0.1% 6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.7% 0.1% 7:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 75.3 75.2 7:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%
  4. 4. GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW MCX GOLD on its daily charts unable to sustain on lower level and showed some correction towards the 50% retracement level. Now, if it sustains below the psychological level of 30000 then 28740 will act as major support. On other hand if it maintain above 30000 then trend reversal can be seen till the resistance level of 38.2% retracement i.e. 31160. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 30000 for the target of 31150 with stop loss of 28700. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 28740 27875 27000 30000 30850 32000 SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX SILVER last week gave false breakout of strong support level of 46700 and found support around lower band of channel pattern and bounced back to upper band. Now, if it sustain above 50% retracement then breakout of channel pattern on upper side will expected where it may find stiff resistance around 51750. Major support from current levels still maintain at 46700. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 49300 for target of 51500, with stop loss of 46500. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 46700 44925 42820 49250 51800 54000
  5. 5. CRUDEOIL TECHNICAL VIEW Crude oil last week showed sideways to bearish movements and closed below 50% retracement and also moved in channel pattern on daily charts. Now, if it sustains below 6120 then it may test the psychological level of 6000. On higher side 6370 will act as important resistance above which break out of channel pattern on higher side is exepected. STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 6100 for the target of 5900 with stop loss of 6370. PIVOT TABLE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 6060 5855 5650 6370 6600 6825 COPPER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Copper on daily charts has been moving in downward channel pattern and reversed from the upper band last week. In support of strength in Rupee, it breached the 61.8% retracement level of 447 and closed around it. Strong support is seen near trend line i.e. around 440 below which bear trend will continue. Closing above 460 and holding above it will indicate breakout of downward channel pattern. PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 444, with stop loss of 460 for the target of 432. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 444.50 432 420 460 472.10 482.30
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