MCX Gold futures are trading slightly weak as global prices are not finding it easy to hold onto the recovery. The local futures sustained heavy selling pressure this week on hopes of rising imports and the inability of.

1. 26 MAY – 30 MAY 2014
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

2. MAJOR EVENTS
MCX Gold futures are trading slightly weak as global prices are not finding it easy to
hold onto the recovery. The local futures sustained heavy selling pressure this week
on hopes of rising imports and the inability of. The US dollar is currently trading at a
three month high of around 1.3647 against the Euro and COMEX Gold yet again
dropped under $1300 to trade at $1294 per ounce, almost unchanged on the day.
MCX Gold is quoting at Rs 27212 per 10 grams, down Rs 29 per 10 grams on the day.
The Reserve Bank has eased gold import norms by allowing select trading houses, in
addition to already permitted banks, to procure the precious metal to boost exports.
The central bank has allowed Star Trading Houses / Premier Trading Houses (STH/PTH)
which are registered as nominated agencies by the Director General of Foreign Trade
(DGFT) to import gold under 20:80 scheme. The STH/PTH barred from importing gold
since July 2013, would be able to import gold with easing of norms. The STH/PTH
should have imported gold prior to the introduction of 20:80 scheme. The US
economic data remains good. The number of people who applied for new
unemployment benefits climbed by 28,000 to 326,000 in the week ended May 17,
erasing the prior week's decline, the US Labor Department reported Thursday.
West Texas Intermediate oil climbed to a five-week high after U.S. crude inventories
tumbled. Brent approached $111 a barrel. Futures capped a third weekly gain in New
York. U.S. crude supplies dropped 7.23 million barrels in the seven days ended May
16, the Energy Information Administration said May 21. Stockpiles at Cushing,
Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, fell to 23.4 million barrels last week, the least
since December 2008. Prices also advanced as violence flared ahead of Ukraine’s May
25 presidential election and unrest continued in Libya. “This has been a pretty solid
week for WTI,”. “Prices are up because of the drop of inventories. Cushing supplies
are getting close to minimum operating levels.”
WTI for July delivery increased 61 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle $104.35 a barrel on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. It’s the highest close since April 21. Prices rose
2.3 percent this week and 6 percent this year. Brent for July settlement gained 18
cents to end the session at $110.54 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe
exchange. Volume was 28 percent lower than the 100-day average. The European
benchmark closed at a $6.19 premium to WTI, the least since April 21.
WTI Crude Climbs
to Five-Week High
on U.S. Supply
Drop.
Copper Rises
After China PMI
Data.
Copper prices rose after data from China, the world's largest consumer of the
industrial metal, showed the country's economy may already be getting a boost from
last month's government stimulus.
MCX Copper was showing smart gains, as prices moved above Rs 410 per kg in the
intraday. The prices of Copper tested a high of Rs 412 and a low of Rs 408.3 per kg so
far. Meanwhile, COMEX Copper tested a high of $ 3.166 per pound, up 2 cents when
last checked.
The initial HSBC manufacturing purchasing manager's index, seen as a key gauge of
China's factory activity, came in at its highest level in five months for May. The HSBC
Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recovered to 49.7 in
May from April's final reading of 48.1
Stimulus measures unveiled by the government a month ago, such as tax breaks and
more spending on railways, are buoying short-term growth for Copper. China accounts
for some 40 per cent of the world's copper imports.
Gold Remains
Weak, US Dollar
Around Three
Month High.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
May 26 All Day Bank Holiday
May 27 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.2% 2.4%
6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.5% 2.9%
6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 11.9% 12.9%
6:30pm HPI m/m 0.5% 0.6%
7:15pm Flash Services PMI 55.6 55.0
7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 83.2 82.3
7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 5 7
May 29 6:00pm Prelim GDP q/q -0.6% 0.1%
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 321K 326K
6:00pm Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 1.3% 1.3%
7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 1.1% 3.4%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 106B
8:30pm Crude Oil Inventories -7.2
May 30 6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.2%
6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.9%
6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.3% 0.5%
7:15pm Chicago PMI 60.2 63.0
7:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 82.9 81.8
7:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.2%
May 31 2:30am FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
27000 26250 25570 27770 28350 29050
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
40440 39500 38500 41650 42800 43900
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD last week showed sharp
downfall as RBI eases some curbs on
import of gold and closed below the
channel pattern and also took support
around physicological level of 27000.
Now, if it sustains below its important
support level then bears may take it
towards the next support level of
26250. On higher side if it maintains
above 27800 then next resistance may
be seen in the range of 28350-28800.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 27000 for the targets of 26300-
26000 with stop loss of 28000.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER showed sideways to
bearish movement and took the
support of lower band of falling wedge
pattern. Now, if the bearish movement
continues on lower side then 39900
will act as important support level. On
other hand some correction may lead
it towards the resistance level of 42000
which is also upper band of falling
wedge pattern.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell on highs for target
of 40000-39000, with stop loss of 43000.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
…
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6030 5930 5790 6185 6340 6510
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
404.40 396.20 388 414.65 422.75 432.30
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper on daily charts showed
sideways movement and traded in
between channel pattren. Now on
higher side if it maintains above 415-
425 then breakout of trendline is
exepected and may lead upto next
resistance level of 433. On other hand
if the downward movement continues
and sustain below 405 then it may find
support in the range of 400-395.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
above 6150 for the target of 6300-6350,
with stop loss of 5925.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
slightly upward movement and
rebounded from its important support
i.e 5950 and took resistance of upper
band of triangle pattern on daily
charts. Now, it needs to sustain above
6150 on closing basis which may lead it
towards the resistance of 6250
otherwise it may again drop towards
the key support of 5950.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 415, with stop loss of 400 for the
targets of 425.
PIVOT TABLE

6. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
DISCLAIMER