Paul Yura - Warning Coordination Meteorologist - National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX - TWCA Annual Convention 2015

1. Effects from This
Winter’s El Niño
Paul Yura
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

2. 122 NWS Offices

3. NWS Austin/San Antonio
“County Warning Area”
 Forecasts
 Watches/Warnings
 Decision Support
 Local Research
 Outreach

4. Wet
Dry14.99 14.88
Is Drought Unexpected?

8. El Niño
La Niña
Neutral
(Wet - Fall thru Spring)
(Dry - Fall thru Spring)
Forecasts from Fall 2014…Weak El Niño

9. (ENSO) El Niño…Rainy Fall/Winter

10. (ENSO) La Niña…Dry Fall/Winter

11. Three Month Rain Outlook…Dec-Feb

12. Three Month Temp Outlook…Dec-Feb

13. “Effects from
This Winter’s
El Niño”
Problem?
Are we in El Niño?

14. Current Pacific Ocean Anomalies
El Niño – Warmer than normal La Niña – Colder than normal

15. Monitoring the Pacific Ocean Temperatures
TAO Array - 70 Buoys
Satellite

16. Hot off the Press…We are in El Niño!
Announced Today…
El Niño Advisory (Weak Event)

18. El Niño
La Niña
Neutral
(Wet - Fall thru Spring)
(Dry - Fall thru Spring)
Forecast…Weak El Niño Continues…

19. Drought Monitor Map – Fall 2011

21. March 3 2015Nov 25 2015
Improvement?

22. Observed Rainfall…Last 180 Days

23. Percent of Normal…Last 180 Days

24. Observed Rainfall…Last 90 Days

25. Percent of Normal…Last 90 Days

26. December 2014
Warm and Dry

27. January 2015
Cool and Wet

28. Percent of Normal…Last 30 Days

29. Toledo Bend
90.7%
Medina
3.3%
Travis 34.1%
Lavon
51.9%
O.H. Ivie
14.0%
Meredith
5.5%
Canyon
77.2%
Buchanan 34.9%
Texana
87.1%
Lake Corpus Christi
46.2%
Possum Kingdom
62.4%
Amistad
62.5%
Choke Canyon
24.2%
Arrowhead
19.0%
Reservoir Conditions
2/25/2015

30. Edwards Aquifer

31. Lake Storage Across Texas

32. Lake Storage Across Texas

34. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png

35. U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
Precipitation Temperature
March – May 2015
Precipitation Temperature

36. U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
June – August 2015
Precipitation Temperature

37. U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
Temperature for Jul – Sep 2015 and Aug – Oct 2015
Temperature Jul – Sep 2015 Temperature Aug – Oct 2015

38. U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
September - November 2015
Precipitation Temperature

39. Questions?
 NWS Austin/San Antonio
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels, TX 78130
Paul.yura@noaa.gov