1. The document discusses various modeling perspectives and theories for regional and urban development, including location theory, external economies, central place theory, and endogenous growth theory. 2. It also covers different types of models used in regional modeling, such as statistical, econometric, dynamic, agent-based, and cellular automata models. Specific examples discussed include causal models, econometric panel data models, system dynamics simulations, and input-output models. 3. Key applications mentioned include assessing the impacts of infrastructure investments like toll roads on accessibility, land use changes, and social equity.

1. 1
PEMODELAN WILAYAH DAN KOTA
Ibnu Syabri
KK Sistem Infrastruktur Wilayah dan Kota
Sekolah Arsitektur, Perencanaan dan Pengembangan Kebijakan
Institut Teknologi Bandung

2. 2
Perspektif Pemodelan dalam
Wilayah dan Kota

3. 3
Apa yg dimaksudkan dgn ?
• Bagaimanakah kawasan/wilayah tumbuh dan
berkembang?
• Mengapa beberapa wilayah tumbuh lebih
cepat daripada yang lain?"
• Proses yang mendorong inovasi dan
pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional secara
fundamental bersifat spasial.

4. 4
Teori2 Pembangunan Wilayah (1)
• Teori2 Pembangunan Wilayah muncul dari beberapa tradisi
intelektual yang berbeda:
– “Teori Perdagangan Neoklasik" dan “Teori Pertumbuhan”
memberikan dasar konseptual untuk memahami apakah
ekonomi regional akan terdiferensiasi dari waktu ke waktu
(labor and capital mobility, convergency: terciptanya
pemerataan upah antar daerah).
– Teori lokasi menyediakan “framework” untuk memahami peran
biaya transportasi dalam pengembangan wilayah (Weber,
Moses, Isard, dll) .
– “External Economies” , cluster or dispersal menciptakan
Increasing, Constant, or Decreasing Return to Scale
– “Central Place Theory” (threshold dan range): struktur ruang

5. 5
Teori2 Pembangunan Wilayah (2)
• Konsepsi Dasar Teori-Teori Pembangunan Ekonomi Wilayah
– 1. Location Theory and RegionalScience
– 2. External Economies
– 3. Models of Spatial Competition
– 4. Central Place Theory
• Teori-Teori alternatif Pembangunan Ekonomi Wilayah
– 1. Theories of Regional Economic Convergence
• a) Export Base Theory
• b) Neoclassical Exogenous Growth Theory
– 2. Theories of Regional Economic Divergence a) Cumulative Causation Theory b) Growth Pole Theory
– 3. Structuralist Theories a) Stage/Sector Theories b) Profit/Product Cycle Theories c) Industrial
Restructuring Theories d) Flexible Specialization and Network Theory e) Marxist Theory
– 4. Political Institutions and Regional Economic Development a) Growth Machine Theory b) The New
Institutional Economics
– 5. Emerging Neoclassical Perspectives a) Endogenous Growth Theory b) The New Economic
Geography

6. 6Model-model Pengembangan
Kawasan
• Model Estimasi dan Peramalan (Forecasting)
– Model-Model Statistika/Ekonometrika : kausalitas, time-
series
• Kajian Dampak Investasi (Model Input-Output)
• Simulasi Faktor-Faktor Penentu Dampak
– Model dinamis berbasis Cellular Automata (CA) yang
sebagian besar bersifat spasial.
– Agent-Based Models (ABM), memungkinkan secara
eksplisit memodelkan proses perilaku yang sering
digabungkan dengan CA.
– Model Sistem Dinamis (System Dynamic Models)
– Model Ekonometrika Spasial (Spatial Econometrics
Models)
– Model Mikrosimulasi (Microsimulation Models)
– Model-model Simulasi Tematik:
• Model Lowrey (statik)
• Land-Use Transportation Interaction, LUTI (statik)
• Cellular Automata: Physical Simulation Models of
Urban Morphologies
Simulation Models of Urban Morphologies

7. 7
Jenis-Jenis Pemodelan
Transportasi
PDE: Partial Differential Equation; ODE: Ordinary Differential Equation

8. 8
Implementasi Model

9. 9
1. Model Kausalitas:
Mencari Faktor Dampak Pembangunan
Infrastruktur
• Evaluasi ex-post dampak ekuitas spasial dan
sosial dari jalan Tol Cipularang : perspektif
aksesibilitas dan tata kelola (Governance)
• Efek jaringan (transportasi)
• Preferensi lokasi (perusahaan dan orang)
• Tidak sama di berbagai wilayah geografis dan
kelompok populasi
• Dipengaruhi oleh sistem tatakelola
pemerintahan
Toll Road
Development
Land-Use
Changes
Travel
Pattern
LocalTransport
Investment
Accessibility
Residential
location
choice
Equity
Travel
behaviour
Governance
Decentralization
• Dalam kasus negara berkembang, kurangnya bukti pengaruh peran
pemerintah, proses desentralisasi dan proses pengambilan
keputusan terhadap pembangunaninfrastruktur
• Hubungan kausal antara penggunaan lahan, transportasi,dan
pilihan lokasi thdp ekuitas (ekuitas spasial dan sosial)
• Evaluasi ex-post investasi transportasi sangat penting untuk
masukan analisis CBA

10. 10
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11. 11“what is the impact of Cipularang Toll Road on transport and accessibility,
related to spatial and social equity?’’
11
GovernanceDecentralizationCIPULARANG TOLL ROAD
DEVELOPMENT
Land-Use Changes TravelPattern Local TransportInvestment
Accessibility
Residential
location
choice
Equity
Travel
behaviour
Research Part1
Research Part2
Research Part3
Research Part4
1. What is the impact of the
decentralization process
on the decision making
process of the Cipularang
Toll Road and local
transport infrastructure
investments in the
Jakar1t7a--3B-a2n01d6ungregion?
2. What is the impact of the
Cipularang Toll Road on
accessibility and spatial
equity in the Jakarta-
Bandung region?
3. What is the impact of the
Cipularang Toll Road
development on
residential location
choice and travel
behavior in the Jakarta-
Bandung region?
4. What is the impact of the
Cipularang Toll Road on
social equity in the
Jakarta-Bandung region?

12. 12
2. Model Ekonometrika Panel Data:
Dampak Aktivitas Transportasi Udara Thdp Ekonomi
Wilayah
• Panel Data (2011-2015)
– Unit Analisis:
• Administrative boundary of Municipality of Regency
• Cluster Influences based on Market networkanalysis
– Airport passenger and cargo data: Craft movement, passenger and
cargo movement
– Economic growth data: 9 sectors GDP
• Model Framework
– Airport influences on Economy Cobb-Douglas Production Function:
• Yit = f (Ktit,Lit) Yit= f (Spatialit, RoadTimeit, Paxit, Cargoit, Laborit); Y is ouput
level
– Economic influences on Passenger and Cargo growth:
• CRAFTit = f(GDPit,k), k= 9 sectors of economy
• PAXit = f(GDPit,k)
• GDP = f (CRAFT, PAX, Saptiali, Networki, Cargoi, Labori)

13. 13
Location, and Class of Airports

14. 14
Internatioal
TradeExhibition
Center
LogisticsCenter
LogisticsBased
Industries
(ValueAdded
LogisticsService)
IndustrialEstate
(Manufacturing
Basis)
One Stop
Gov’tServices
(ICQ)
NonResident
Inventory
Services
Export /Import
OutletIndustrial Estate
(ProcessingBasis)
Logistics
Center
OneStop
Gov’t
Services
Primary
Industries
Region
Industrial
Estate
(Processing
Industries)
RegionalHub
(Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus / Strategis)
Logistics
Center
OneStop
Gov’t
Services
Primary
Industries
Region
Industrial
Estate
(Processing
Industries)
SpoketoSpoke
Connectivity
Africa
Asia
Europe
America
Ausie &NZ
Market
Domestic
Outlet
Domestic
Market
Logistics
Center
OneStop
Gov’t
Services
Primary
Industries
Region
Industrial
Estate
(Processing
Industries)
Logistics
Center
OneStop
Gov’t
Services
Primary
Industries
Region
Industrial
Estate
(Processing
Industries)
HUB :Kab/Kota
SPOKE : Kab/Kota1
SPOKE : Kab/Kota2
SPOKE : Kab/Kota3
Kab/KotaN
Membangun Konektivitas:
Infrastruktur Transportasi

15. 51
Logical Framework of Ralationship or Causal links
between Aviation and Economy

16. 16Benefit Ekonomi dari Sektor
Transportasi
Direct Transport
Supply
Direct Transport
Demand
Indirect
microeconomic
Indirect
macroeconomic
Income from
transport operations
Improved
accessibility
Rent income Formation of
distribution
networks
Access to wider
distribution markets
and niches
Time and cost
saving
Lower price of
commodities
Attraction and
accumulation of
economic activities
Productivity
gains
Higher supply of
commodities
Increased
competitiveness
Division of labor Growth of
consumption
Access to a
wider range of
suppliers and
consumers
Fulfilling mobility
needs
Economies of
scale

17. 17
3. Simulasi Sistem Dinamis
DAMPAK INVESTASI JSS

18. 18
Analisis Sistem Dinamis
 Sistem dinamis dalam relevansinya dengan kegiatan ini adalah
untuk memodelkan peningkatan nilai lahan dan pergerakan
barang dan penumpang dengan skenario pengembangan
kawasan-kawasan potensial di Provinsi Lampung dan Banten
serta Pulau Sumatera dan Pulau Jawa.
 Dengan menggunakan pemodelan dinamika sistem, lahan dan
arus pergerakan (komoditas dan orang) akan dimodelkan
untuk mengetahui profit yang akan diperoleh investor dengan
terbangunnya Jembatan Selat Sunda dan pengembangan
kawasan-kawasan potensial.

19. 19Model Konseptual Interaksi
Gunalahan dan Transportasi

20. 20
Model Cellular Automata:
Perubahan Guna Lahan

21. 21
• Interactivate examples

22. 22
KONSEPTUALISASI MODEL
 Menggambarkan relasi antar variabel dengan diagram umpan balik
(causal loop), memplot variabel tertentu terhadap waktu dan
menggambarkan diagram alir (flow diagram).
 Studi ini mempergunakan diagram sebab akibat (causal loop) untuk
membuat konseptualisasi sistem model pengembangan kawasan
potensial di sekitar Jembatan Selat Sunda.
 Konseptualisasi sistem :
 konseptualisasi sistem pergerakan,
 konseptualisasi sistem nilai lahan, dan
 konseptualisasi sistem investasi

23. 23
Diagram Umpan Balik Sistem
Loop
3 (-)
PERGERAKAN
MELALUI JSS
gap
penyediaan
JSS
kebutuhan
lalu lintas
kapasitas JSS
+
+
-
-
penerimaan
jalan tol
INITIAL COST
investasi
swasta /
pemerintah
pengembangan
kawasan
potensial
NILAI LAHAN
pergerakan
Jawa -
Sumatera via
pelabuhan
infrastruktur
pendukung
+
+
+
+
+ -
+
+
+
-
-
+
Loop
1 (-)
Loop
2 (-)
Loop
4 (+)
Loop
5 (+)
+
Loop
8 (-)
pertumbuhan
penduduk
+
+
+
-
penerimaan
pemerintah
alokasi
peningkatan
kinerja
prasarana
publik
+
+
+
Loop
6 (-)
Loop
7 (-)
Keterangan:
Submodel Pergerakan
Submodel Nilai Lahan
Submodel Investasi
tidak dimodelkan

24. 24
01/01/2010 01/01/2020 01/01/2030 01/01/2040
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
kendviaJSS
01/01/2010 01/01/2020 01/01/2030 01/01/2040
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
kendvia
pelabuhan
Simulasi
Submodel
Pergerakan
Jumlah Kendaraan
melewatiPelabuhan
Laut
Jumlah Kendaraan
melewatiJSS

25. 25
4. Model Input-Output (IO)
• Model Input-output memodelkan “inter-industry
linkages“:
• Memperkenankan terjadinya perubahan
(shock) pada suatu sektor industriterhadap
sektor industri lainnya.
• Menghasilkan suatu “multipliers”: ukuran“effect”
total perubahan thdp kenaikan/penurunan
demand/supply pada tenaga-kerja atau
pendapatan

26. 26
Government
Intermediate
Sectors
(Firms)
Capital
Rest of
the
World
Household
WPS
Labor
Investment
Consumption
Goods
Capital
Consumption
Imports
Exports
Goods and
Services
Public Services
to business
Input-Output Models
• Intermediate: private
business activities
• Households:
individuals/families residing
or employed in the region
• Both buyers of goods&
services and sellers of
labor
• Government: local, state, and
national
• Rest of the world: activities
located outside the region
• Capital: stock of private
capital

27. 27
Input-Output Models

28. 28Analisis Impak
• Menentukan dampak perubahan dalam suatu lokasi (kawasan) pada
kelompok sosial ekonomi tertentu, sektor bisnis/industri, dan pengaruhnya
dari waktu ke waktu
• JenisImpak
– Phisik/Lingkungan
– Demographi
– Sosial
– Fiskal
– Ekonomi
• Faktor yg perludipertimbangkan
– Impak Lokasi :
– Physical borders
– Political borders
– Economic conditions
• Urban vs.rural
– Impak Ekonomi
• Impak Primer atau Sekunder
• Multiplier effects
• Indirect
• Induced
• Present value of future impacts

29. 29
Impak Primer
Producer value at Factory = 250
+
Transportation Margin = 30
+
Wholesaler Margin = 100
+
Transportation Margin = 30
+
Retailer Margin = 190
Purchaser Price = Rp. 600

30. 30
Impak Primer
• Teori ”Export Base"
– Basic + Non-Basic = TotalActivity
– TotalActivity = f(Basic) = Basic x multiplier
• Perkembangan Ekonomi dipicu oleh
aktivitas “Basic”.

31. 31
Impak Sekunder
• Multiplier Effect
– Indirect impacts
• Meningkatnya aktivitas ekonmoi karena perusahaan
membeli input dari perusahaan lain di dalam wilayah
studi.
– Induced impacts
• Meningkatnya aktivitas ekonomi karena tenaga-
kerja perusahaan membelanjakan pendapatan
mereka di wilayah studi.
– Multiplier = Primary + Indirect + Induced
Primary

32. 32
Input-Output
Model
• Multipliers
– Output multipliers - based on inter-industry
transactions
– Income, employment and value added
multipliers are based on output multipliers

33. 33
Input-Output
Analysis
• Multipliers
– Includes the direct or primary spending
– Includes indirect spending, or businesses buying and
selling with eachother
– Plus household spending based on the income earned
from the direct and indirect effects - the induced effect
– Multiplier = Primary + Indirect + Induced
Primary