Prediction In Macbeth

Prediction In Macbeth
The plot of Macbeth by Shakespeare is gotten under way apparently by the prediction of the three
witches. The prescience fans the blazes of aspiration inside of Macbeth and Lady Macbeth, serving
as the essential catalyst for the couple to plot the passing of Duncan– – and in this manner Banquo.
Be that as it may, one likewise ponders: Would Macbeth have carried out such horrifying
wrongdoings notwithstanding the prediction? Consider the possibility that he had overlooked the
witches' announcements. Such hypothesis, however fascinating, at last seems pointless, since the
prescience itself is self–satisfying. The witches know Macbeth's terrible imperfection: given the
overpowering enticement to wind up King, he will confer murder despite the ... Show more content
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It appears that Birnam Wood will either come to Dunsinane Hill (a heavenly occasion) or it won't (a
characteristic occasion); yet the real even ends up being neither here nor there, as the Wood
allegorically comes to Dunsinane. As an ethical quality story of sorts, Macbeth has as its close
contemporary Christopher Marlowe's Dr. Faustus. Like Dr. Faustus, Macbeth perceives the cursing
outcomes of his wrongdoing: And yet Macbeth completes the wrongdoing, hence accelerating his
own particular plunge into hellfire. Later in the play, fittingly, Macduff calls Macbeth by the name
of "hellfire dog" (V x 3). To be sure, the narrative of Macbeth is that of a man who assents in his
condemnation–to some extent on the grounds that he can't articulate words that may constrict his
wrongdoing. As Duncan's watchmen beg "God favor us" on their deathbed, Macbeth can't say one
"So be it" (ii
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How Did Nostradamus Predict The Future
Nostradamus Nostradamus was made the most famous prophet in history, conjuring the future and
foreseeing what lies in store for us all. He warned humanity of its greatest threats, and described
apocalyptic events. But could he really predict the future? He couldn't have earned his title as one of
the world's greatest prophets if his predictions never came true. There are those who say they do
come true time and time again, as history continues in an infinite cycle to repeat itself. Not all of his
prophecies paint a picture of dome but many of them do, even describing when the end of the world
will happen.
In 1503 in Salon De–Provence, France, Nostradamus was born into a Jewish family to a grain
dealer. It is believed he descended from the Issachar Tribe, who were known prophets, in the
modern day they would be the equivalent to a Jewish Rabbi, it was believed they had a special
connection to God which gave them the ability of predict future events. The Issachar Tribe also used
stars to see the future, and at an early age Nostradamus showed aptitude for astrology. When he was
fifteen he pursued the equivalent of a college degree but was expelled when it was discovered he
participated in apocracy, in modern days this would be known as a pharmacist, which in the 16th
century was considered a manual trade and ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Not far from the turn of the millennium, the dead will rise out of their graves." He predicted the end
of the world would be in 7074 and believed that this would be when the earth will complete its
cycle, but he never states if the human race will end with the earth or if we will be extinct before
that. The only thing that Nostradamus did not predict was if the human race could change its path to
extinction, but according to Ecologist Dr. Camilo Mora it's already too late

A Research Study On Predictions
Predictions are utilized commonly in the many Areas of Knowledge. Predictions are generally future
Knowledge developed from existing Knowledge. Generally, Frequencies or trends are used to make
predictions.Trend analysis involves the use of any of a variety of techniques based on historical data.
Trend analysis involves several processes. One process is spotting an emerging trend, that is,
identifying a change in the world around us.
In many areas of knowledge, to know is to be able to understand. In the areas of knowledge, the
ones who understand are usually referred to as "experts". Usually, The one who is referred as a
specialist is someone who has wrote and studied the specific area extensively. However, One does
not need to be an ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
For example,
Nostradamus made vague predictions in the book "the prophecies". He predicted disasters, plagues,
and even drought.Most of his predictions were misinterpreted due to the vagueness.This rises the
knowledge question of to what extent can we use quantitative and qualitative data to make accurate
predictions of the future?
In the field of science it is convenient to divide the Sciences into branches which are differentiated
by their methods and focus of interest.For example,social sciences are usually dealing with the study
of humans or their behaviors. What enables a soft scientist to predict is usually, the understanding of
patterns allows soft scientist to establish a relationship between a particular experience and more
broadly general ones with in the world we perceive. Once the soft scientists have explained the last
event satisfactorily then can they predict the upcoming and that is crucial in every area of
knowledge one must have basis for their prediction.the basis for "soft scientist" is usually evidence.
Through evidence they can associate cause and effect, and

Scientific Predictions Are Not Always Accurate And Helpful
Forecast, as the Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary defined, is "a statement about what will
happen in the future, based on the information that is available now". A scientific one is making
forecast by a scientific method, which is defined by Merriam–Webster Collegiate Dictionary as:
"principles and procedures for the systematic pursuit of knowledge involving the recognition and
formulation of a problem, the collection of data through observation and experiment, and the
formulation and testing of hypotheses"
Nowadays scientific forecasts, like weather forecasts, have become common in people's daily life.
Some of them, because of their accurate prediction, have brought great helpfulness and convenience.
However, there is a ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The goal of establishing a complete system of modern science may be achieved one day, but
requires a large amount of money and people's endeavour.
In addition, there are limitations in existing theories, which are widely accepted nowadays. Because
of the development of human society, theories which we thought were accurate will turn out to be
wrong. For instance, Aristotle (B.C.384–B.C.322) claimed that heavier things fall faster than lighter
ones. This claim was thought to be right as it fit the common knowledge of people living in those
time periods. And interestingly, people used this law to forecast free falling things without ever
doubting of it until Galileo Galilei (1564–1642) did his famous experiment to prove that actually
free falling things, however heavy they are, share the same pace. Therefore, it is likely that theories
which we accepted today will turn out to be wrong in the future. And to the future generation, the
forecasts made based on these theories might not be accurate.
Secondly, inaccuracy also comes from the process of calculation involved in forecasting. There is no
doubt that a forecast should be made before the event happens. Therefore, there is a time limit for
the calculation process of a scientific forecast. But most forecasts need a significant amount of
complex calculation, which may not be able to be totally calculated in

The Signal And The Noise Book Report
The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail– but Some Don't is a book written by Nate
Silver an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections. The Signal and the
Noise was published on September 27, 2012 in the United States after its first week in print it
reached the New York Times Best Sellers list as No. 12 for non–fiction hardback books. The Signal
and the Noise opens with an Introduction that looks at the rise of information availability over the
past several centuries. It notes that though the increasing levels of information has lead to
advantages in many areas (such as boosting the economy), it has also increased the sheer amount of
incorrect or misleading information (the 'noise') that exists in the ... Show more content on
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In this chapter he talks about the swine flu 'epidemics' of the late seventies and of 2009 serve as an
example of how extrapolation can lead to improper predictions, particularly if you assume that
things will keep proceeding as they have in the recent past. It notes that self–fulfilling and self–
canceling prophecies complicate the process of determining the future, by altering which directions
the given traits proceed and altering their progress. The efforts to change the progress of certain
events, helping the good and thwarting the bad, mean that many traits change their course from their
initial progress (as when the swine flu outbreaks were stopped shortly after starting). Self–fulfilling
predictions can be caused by the sheer act of releasing the prediction. For example, when news
about H1N1 flu is broadcast, more people go to doctors and more H1N1 is identified. Self–
cancelling predictions can also occur. Navigation systems show where the least traffic is but
simultaneously invalidate the route by sending all traffic there en masse. Chapter 7 deals with the
dangers of extrapolation and overly simplistic assumptions, using misfiring flu–predictions as an
example. Also discussed here are self–fulfilling and self–cancelling predictions. Often the very act
of prediction can alter the way people behave (an observation that also John Adams makes with
regard to risk – a form of prediction, of course –

Social Groups Of Savannah Baboons
To test this prediction, five social groups of savannah baboons were followed over nine years in
Amboseli, Kenya. This was done to measure testosterone (fT) and glucocorticoid (fGC) levels by
analyzing collected fecal samples. General linear mixed models (GLMMs) were made to predict
fGC and fT levels of males in unstable and stable hierarchies. Utilizing GLMMs, researchers could
see whether or not stability of hierarchy influenced the relationship between social rank and
hormone levels. Task 1 Avoid plagiarism by taking words from the paper. This summary should not
be more than a page long. Need to write in a way that it flows well. Don't get worried over the stats
of the paper, don't mention them in the summary. Understand and explain parts of the paper:
Research Question Hypothesis Predictions Methods Results Conclusions Task 2 What is the
significance of the paper? Results from the paper can further understandings of theories/problems
AND further generate the next research question. Task 3 Creative part! What recommendations
would you suggest for further experiments (Research question, hypothesis, predictions and
methods). You should provide implications / significance of your proposed experiment. Be
extremely detailed during this part, so that others can replicate the experiment. Outline for
Assignment – No more than 4 pages double spaced (not including cover page). – Margins of 2.54
cm (Top and bottom) and 3.17 (Left and right). – Follow well – established citation

Predicting The Future Of The Election Before The Voting...
Predicting the Future Life is full of surprises but there are three things that ultimately determine how
you live your life: past, present, and the future. We live our daily lives on those three fundamentals.
For example, if it was cold yesterday and it is still cold now, it will probably still be cold tomorrow.
This is the same way for Presidential elections. If a candidate were to maintain their strong lead
from the beginning of the election, unless something were to happen, it is expected that they will
continue that lead in the future as well. So if meteorologists are able to reliably predict the outcome
of the weather, can Psephologists reliably predict the outcome of the presidential election before the
voting deadline of November 8th? There are always people who try to stay ahead and predict the
future. The very first official weather forecast was made in the 1860s and the first official gallup poll
for presidential election has dated back to Roosevelt vs. Landon in 1936 (The Birth of the Weather
Forecast). Since then, both weather forecast and presidential prediction has both been reliable but
not perfect. From 1936 to 2012, they have predicted 16 out of 20 correctly, or with an 80% accuracy.
Most of the incorrect predictions are only off by 1% margin besides the year 1948 where the margin
of error was a whopping 5% (Election Polls –– Accuracy Record in Presidential Elections). This was
a tragic year for the pollsters. 1948 presidential election

The Problem Of Differential Equations
Predicting the future is a big topic that many people have attempted and failed. Many people try to
predict things such as the end of the world, the next stock market crash, and the weather. Many
people are also scared of the future and wonder what it will hold, such as the prophet Jonah. When
the Lord told Jonah to go to Nineveh, he was terrified of the future and fled from the Lord. God later
showed Jonah that he is the only one in control and Jonah couldn't run from God. Christians believe
that there is only one person that is in control of the future and can predict it, and that would be God.
While they know this to be certain, mathematicians believe that by using math, specifically
differential equations, they can predict how things such as population, the stock market, and the
weather can be somewhat accurately predicted. In order to decide whether differential equations can
predict future events, it is important to know exactly what a differential equation is. A differential
equation is an equation involving derivatives of a function or functions.. The functions usually
represent some quantities, and the derivatives represent their rates of change. The differential
equation that results from the two relates the derivative and the function to be used as a productive
equation. The rate of change according to time can be a pivotal part in trying to predict some aspects
of the future. When mathematicians think of using differential equations to predict

Predictive Analysis Method
Dividing it by home price was an attempt take into consideration the cost of living per state. Other
than tedious formatting, I did not have any other challenges.
Analysis Method The method I chose to analyze my data with was SAS Enterprise Guide's Rapid
Predictive Modeler. This method provides predictive models quick and accurately and provides easy
to understand graphs, charts, and reports. The Modeler will look at the data and try different
predictive models and make a final choice on which model is the best one. This method will also
automatically take care of outliers, missing values, rare target events, skewness. It will select the
variables that are most important for the data model it choices to provide the best results. This ...
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The model chosen was a Decision Tree. The ROC Plot looks great as it is far from the baseline and
close to the top edge of the chart. This means that the model performed well at classifying my
variable. An important statistic, in this case, is the misclassification rate. In this week, the training
misclassification rate was 0.2679 and the validation miscalculation rate was 0.3182. There is not
much difference between the train and validation rates which means this model is useful. The ROC
for validation is 0.872 which is good. It would be nice to see this number about 0.9, but this is
acceptable. I have also provided the output of this model in the Excel sheet that will show the
models predictions for each of the states.
For the second week, December 10 – 16, the important variables were CY48, VaccinationRate,
AverIncome, WinterAfterHumidity. The best model was also a decision tree. In this week, the
training misclassification rate was 0.3158 and the validation miscalculation rate was 0.4651. The
difference in the rates is noticeable and I would declare this model as useless. The model fell apart
during the validation process and I would not trust it prediction future events.
For the week of December 17 – 23, the important variables were CY48, AverageHousePrice, Annual
Precipitation, 2015_2016, and 2016_2017. The final two variables are binary variables that
determines what year the record is able, 1 being yes and 0

What Are Bradbury's Predictions In Fahrenheit 451
In Fahrenheit 451 Ray Bradbury predicted the way that society would develop due to technology in
the future and surprisingly, some of his predictions were not too far from the truth. Bradbury
predicts society beginning to stop reading books in favor of screens. A prediction is also made
telling of the rise of self censorship for the sake of political correctness. War is predicted to become
a depersonalized affair as it becomes so distant from the public. Some people say that Bradbury's
predictions did not predict the way the world is today. Though this may seem like a reasonable
assumption at first there are a few flaws with this statement. In reality, Bradbury was truly ahead of
his time and his predictions actually have in many cases come ... Show more content on
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This ideal is shown when Mrs. Phelps and Mildred begin talking about how Mr. Phelps has been
shipped out by the army, she says, "...the army called Pete yesterday. He'll be back next week. The
army said so. Quick war. Forty eight hours they said, and everyone home...I've never known any
dead man killed in a war. Killed jumping off buildings, yes, like gloria's husband last week, but from
wars? No"(Bradbury 90–1). Here bradburry is predicting that our society will think of war as being
so frequent that it becomes a mere formality like a business trip whilst we focus too heavily on other
problems at home. This has come to be a major part of the world today as we tend to send only
drones or air forces into battle these days as we do not like using ground troops unless absolutely
necessary. Though this aspect of the problem is not negative in and of itself the public begins to
think that war is somehow not very important in their daily lives as it seems so de–personalized with
machines raining hell on the enemy from above in distant lands. This has certainly become prevalent
in our society as we focus too much on what is going on at home. Many people do not believe that
Bradbury's predictions were inaccurate as we have not gotten into multiple full scale nuclear wars in
the present day and the fact that people are still aware of these conflicts going on today. Though this
is true that we have not gotten into full scale nuclear wars or forgotten about conflicts abroad
Bradbury is not predicting nuclear wars becoming commonplace. Rather, Bradbury is predicting that
wars will become so commonplace and distant that the public thinks of them as a trivial week to
week occurrence. This is not to say we are not cognizant of them, however society views many of
the current conflicts as less of a concern than all the problems at home when in reality every war can
have major impacts on the world as a

Excessive Use Of Technology In Fahrenheit 451
(AGG) Humanity has had its technologically primitive days, but because we have advanced
technologically, we have become slaves to our screens. (BS–1) Mildred and the rest of the society in
the novel Fahrenheit 451 are held hostage by their screens and are greatly affected by it. (BS–2) In
real life, excessive use of technology can cause grave and possibly irreversible damage.
(BS–3) Many of author Bradbury's predictions on technological advancements have come true in
our lives today. (TS)Many of bradbury's technological predictions in the novel F451 have come true
and the overuse of technology has ill effects on the people within the novel and us in real life.
(MIP–1)In the novel, the society's overuse of technology causes their behavior, ... Show more
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(SIP–A) The Internet and screen time, the virtual gateway to everything in the world, can affect your
mind's ability to store memory. (STEWE–1) Researcher Daniel Wegner found that "when people
have access to search engines, they remember fewer facts and less information because they know
they can rely on "search" as a readily available shortcut"(Wegner). This is exactly what happens in
the book, people rely too much on technology and they end up having difficulty holding onto
information. (STEWE–2) "Students who have trouble remembering distinct facts, for example, may
struggle to employ those facts in critical thinking"(Wegner). Because we rely on the technology, it's
basically become our "digital brain". It holds all our information so we don't have to, leading to a
lack of holding onto information because of technology. (SIP–B) Looking at screens constantly can
cause severe or irreversible damage to the body. (STEWE–1) Based on an article, "too much time in
front of TV and computer screens is causing increasing psychological problems, such as depression
and anxiety"(the guardian). These are direct effects from too much technology. (STEWE–2) "The
effects, particularly on mental health, were most pronounced for those children who spent more than
four hours a day using some sort of screen–based technology"(the guardian). Mental damage can
overtime be healed but if the brain is damaged to a certain extent, then the damage will be
irreversible. This is caused when someone stares at a screen for long periods of time or is actively
engaging in what is appearing on their

Case Study Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc
Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc. Future Sales Forecast Report
Prepared by: Karriem Pierre
November 20, 2011
Nova Southeastern University
Business Modeling, Fall Semester, Online Course
Professor Phillip S. Rokicki, Ph.D
Executive Summary
Ms. Quintana CEO of Northern Napa Valley Winery Inc. was considering conducting business with
Trans Continental stores to sell excess grapes from the 2008 harvest. Prior to making a decision
Quintana must determine how much of the harvest should be retained for the production of Northern
Napa's own red table wine. Quintana realized that the quantity of red table wine produced is closely
associated to the sales. Ms. Quintana ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This test was used in order to determine if there were too many or too few runs in a series of data.
After conducting the runs test it produced a z–value of –5.9123, which indicates the amount of
standard errors of the identified number of runs below the expected number of runs. The p–value
indicates how extreme the z value is and with a p–value (0.0001) which is less than .05 or .1 the null
hypothesis of randomness is rejected (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Runs Test for Randomness
|StatTools Report |
|Analysis: |Runs Test for Randomness |
|Performed By: |Karriem Pierre |
|Date: |Wednesday, November 16, 2011 |
|Updating: |Live/Unlinked |
| |Sales |
|Runs Test for Randomness |Data Set #1 |
|Observations |104 |
|Below Median |52 |
|Above Median |52 |
|Number of Runs |23 |

|Median |10933.00 |
|E(R)

Driverless Car Insurance Research Paper
Humans have long sought to find ways to protect themselves from catastrophe. Although we think
of insurance as being about payments to cover financial losses, historically, insurance has its roots in
practices such as storing excess grain in order to protect against famine or agreements between
neighbors to help rebuild a barn or house if one burned down. These practices and agreements
helped protect both individuals and society as a whole from catastrophic losses that would prevent
people from getting back up to speed and becoming productive again.
The History Of Insurance In America notes that one of the biggest changes in insurance occurred
when the creation of the Internet enabled people to seek out online insurance quotes. Technology
marches on and the buzz these days is all about the expectation that driverless cars will be the next
big changes revolutionizing the world and potentially making ... Show more content on
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Those prediction posit that better public transportation from one city to another will go hand in hand
with these developments and that driverless cars will be a more local phenomenon, taking you
wherever you want to go within a particular city but not from one city to another. The reality is that
Europe currently has better public transportation than the U.S. This is in part because Europe is
simply more densely populated, so public transportation makes more sense logistically. However,
Americans have a strong tendency currently to live in one city and work in another or live in an
unincorporated suburb and commute elsewhere. They also have a tendency to take their car for long
distance trips, whether business or vacations. Cars are currently not used as just local transportation,
so it might be a bit of stretch to predict that people will give them up entirely and readily adapt to a
very different transportation paradigm and all that goes with

Neural Networks Are Used For Forecasting
Abstract– Neural networks are used for forecasting. The purpose of any learning algorithm is to find
a function such that it maps a set of inputs to its correct output. Some input and output patterns can
be easily learned by this neural networks. However, in the learning phase single–layer neural
networks cannot learn patterns that are not linearly separable. Back propagation is a common
method of training the neural networks. We are trying to develope the back propagation (BP) neural
network to form a prediction model for prediction of various shares in stock market.
I. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
The stock market is predictable or not predictable is still a question without an answer. Most
scientists and economists believe in stock is ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
This paper has deep study of the BP neural network in
MATLAB, including how to create a neural network, how to initialize the network, training and
simulation, and using
MATLAB programming function and achieve the designed BP neural network. The last but not the
least, it is proved that the research method and the established model are practical and effective by
empirical analysis of several stocks. It not only simplifies the network structure, but also improves
the prediction accuracy as well, owning good predictive capability and generalization.
Deliverables for Stage1 are as follows:
A general description of the system:
With the help of the prediction model, we are predicting the future price of different stocks over a
future period of time. To achieve this, we need to train our model using the previous stock prices
over a previous period of time, so that our model will predict the future price of the respective
stocks. We are using the yahoo financial data set for training our data. The Back Propagation (BP)
algorithm is used to train the model that we are building using neural networks. We are modelling
our prediction using the MATLAB.
The user will

When Popularity Of Machine Learning Models Increased, A...
When popularity of machine learning models increased, a number of automated trading systems
were build around these models. But rst, let 's take a look at the history of machine learning
models in the eld of nancial predictions. At rst, White (1988) applied arti cial neural
networks
(ANN) to reveal nonlinear regularities in the IBM stock price movements. Subsequently, Kamijo
and Tanigawa (1990) used a recurrent neural network for the recognition of price patterns in the
Japanese market. Cheng, Wagner, and Lin (1996) used an ANN to predict the weekly price direction
of the 30–year U.S. treasury bonds and averaged an annualized return on investment of
17:3%. Later, A.–S. Chen, Leung, and Daouk (2003) predicted the direction of the return on the
Taiwan Stock Exchange Index and showed that the ANN based strategies outperformed the random
walk model and the generalized methods of moments with Kalman lter. Despite the reported
success, many researchers have shown that neural networks have some limitations. For instance,
Schoneburg (1990) pointed out that the performance of a neural network is very sensitive to its
design. Lee, Oh, and Kim (1991) highlighted the slow convergence of the backpropagation learning
algorithm (common method to train a neural network) and its convergence to local minimum due to
the non–linear dimensionality of market data. Nevertheless, neural networks and its various
extensions are still widely used.
Probably one of the most popular methods for

Blizzards In America
Who back East or down South could have conceived of a land where the temperature could fall
eighteen degrees in just three minutes? the author stated. (Laskin, 39) This actually occurred in the
nation's history. It is somewhat expected to have some days where one has to bring a light jacket for
later in the day because it is predicted to get cooler. Who would have guessed that farmers and
school children could start their days in shirtsleeves, without heavy overcoats, only to experience
wind chills that night that were forty degrees below zero? the author wrote. (Laskin, 39) The people
who had to endure the freakish drop of temperature and monster of a blizzard definitely did not
predict any of this could ever happen. Had the people been ... Show more content on
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The predictions of forecast back around in that time, at times, could have been helpful, other times
would not. Though the people had forecast predictions, they were often inaccurate. The forecasters,
or indication officers, claimed that their predictions were accurate 83.7 percent of the time for the
following day. The indication officers were not allowed to say certain things about the predicted
forecast, which often affected the communities negatively not only for this certain occasion but for
others, as well. For example, an officer could not even say the word tornado in any of their forecast
predictions. The coastal cities of the nation thought that they were immune to the disaster of a
hurricane, so forecasters would never mention a such a tragic storm in the predictions of the
forecast. On top of the believed immunity and forbidden words to be mentioned in forecasts, the
method of predictions was not at the best, either. Instead of relying on the physics of a storm and
deeply studying it, indication officers turned more to geometry and cartography, the science of
drawing maps, to predict where the storm will go. This did not leave the communities vulnerable for
just this blizzard, but for pretty much every storm that swept across the nation, as

Predictive Analytics : The Use Of Data Science For...
Essay Introduction To compete effectively in an era in which advantages are ephemeral, companies
need to move beyond historical, rear–view understandings of business performance and customer
behavior and become more proactive(tableau). Predictive Analytics is the use of data science for
audience profiling. Generic audience profiling involves determining specific characteristics of your
target audience and creating specific personas to represent each type of person within your target
audience. Predictive analytics is essentially the same process, but from a data perspective (koozai).
Predictive analytics can be used in wide areas in the industry, it's importance is not constrained to a
particular domain and ranges from marketing, telecommunication, retail, banking, etc. For example,
the telecommunication industry has noticed a high customer churn since the switching costs are slim
to none. So telecommunication companies operating in this industry are looking for new ways to
differentiate themselves from competitors in order to retain customers. By using predictive analytics
as a solution to this problem, they would be able to understand the customer needs, requirements
and retain them also allowing them to acquire new ones more effectively. With predictive analytics,
companies can predict trends, understand customers, improve business, drive strategic decision
making and predict behavior. A company named Cox Communications, the third largest cable
entertainment and broadband

The Prediction and Credibility of Harold Camping Essay
Not many people know who Harold Camping is just by hearing his name. However, people do know
what he did without the name. Camping shows why credibility is important and how his actions
affect it. He has given us this lesson of credibility by predicting something that would change the
world and it did not happen. He tried to blame it on a mathematical error and other mistakes. He
asked for forgiveness and due to his actions lost a lot of credibility. He later suffered from a stroke
and died at 92 (Doomsday Harold Camping Dead at 92). Here is the timeline of his lifetime events
leading up to the fail predictions.
Harold Camping was born on July 19, 1921 in Boulder Colorado. He was one of five brothers raised
by Dutch immigrants who were ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
So he then started teaching on the air about the end of the world (Doomsday Harold Camping Dead
at 92). He was very well known so he had a group of several million people around the world who
supported him. However he did in the later 1980's began to preach/teach that churches were straying
away from the Bible (Clark). Since he started down this road he lost a lot of support but nothing
compared to what was coming in 2011 and 2012.
His first widely known prediction was that on May 21, 2011 the would would come to an end. He
convinced thousands of followers that Jesus Christ would return on that day (Clark). He preached
that about 200 million people would be saved and those who are left behind would eventually
witness the Earth, be consumed by a fireball on October 21, later the same year. People gave
everything they had away, drained their bank accounts and took long journeys to be with family
members. Keith Baur, drove 3,000 miles in his mini van so he could be in California for the rapture.
He said, I have some skepticism but I was trying to push the skepticism away because I believe in
God (Burke). Millions of dollars were given in donations to advertising the end of the world, 5,000
billboards were plastered with the message and 20 RV's as well (Doomsday Harold Camping Dead
at 92). Some people took drastic actions in order to avoid the event that was to come. A mother in
California stabbed her two daughters (11 and 14) and slit her own throat with a

A Citation Count Prediction Model For Stem Publishing Domains
A Citation Count Prediction Model for STEM Publishing Domains
Goals
I attempt to tackle the task of citation count prediction using existing and new features. Looking at
multiple domains, I identify differences both in the ability to predict citation counts as well as the
nature of features that contribute to the prediction. For instance, the phenomenon of famous authors
attracting more citations is more apparent in Biology and Medicine compared with other domains.
Additionally, while the popularity of a paper's references is predictive of the paper's success in most
domains, this is clearly not the case in Engineering and Physics. The following is a model that can
be used to predict citations 5 years in the future (using data from 2005 ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
Table 1. Domain–specific Statistics
Domain Affiliations Papers – 2005 Papers – 2015 Authors per paper – 2005 Authors per paper –
2015
CS 4,851 59,116 110,506 2.43 2.75
Biology 2,082 59,395 93,792 3.58 4.04
Chemistry 811 26,496 50,381 3.56 3.99
Medicine 5,524 125,113 214,854 3.52 3.67
Engineering 2,589 43,440 77,664 3.20 3.53
Mathematics 581 11,057 17,317 1.75 1.90
Physics 688 25,393 42,955 4.41 5.05
Methods Techniques
Feature Engineering – I consider four groups of features: Authors, Institutions, Affiliations,
References Network. The first three (group 1)–Authors, Institutions and Affiliations–describe the
reputation of the paper's venue, of its authors and of its author's institutions. I start by calculating the
following features for each venue, author and institution in the dataset: the sum of citation counts of
papers published by the entity, mean citations over papers published by the entity, and max citations,
e.g. the citation count of the most cited work by the entity. I also calculate the h–index and g–index
of these entities. The h–index is defined as the largest h such that at least h papers by the entity
received at least h citations. The g–index is defined as the largest g such that the top g papers by the
entity received together at least g2 citations. Both h–index and g–index numbers are easily

calculable using the capabilities in the Scopus database. For each paper I aggregate the features of
the entities (authors, institutions and

Regression and Hypothesis Testing
As discussed in the Module 5 DQ 1, the most vital function of the hypothesis testing is in researches
where the needs to be a conclusion drawn from a logical approach of making a claim and proving
that the claim is rejected or not with respect to samples and respective statistical approaches. The
claim could be for the effect on blood pressure with certain hypertensive drugs as Beta–blockers, the
adverse effects of certain anti–cancer drug in comparison to another anti– cancer drug, the claim that
fast foods cause heart diseases in contrast to healthy, the claim that alcohol and drunk driving are the
major cause of accidents, etc. The hypothesis testing is taken from a normally distributed population
with the known mean and known or unknown standard deviations; the claim could also be
conducted about the standard deviations or variances. It is normally concerned with drawing
sensible inferences and are not associated with making prediction from the values drawn from the
variables.
The regression on the other hand is probably the most used statistical procedure in public health and
beyond (example, business, law, administrative area, banks, etc). Regression normally utilizes more
than one variable to predict the value of one variable in regards to the other. It uses the related
variables to construct the behavior of the taken variable. The linear correlation which is represented
as r is a number that can be achieved by using a scatter plot to draw a graph and an equation

The Usefulness of Accounting Estimates for Predicting Cash...
The Usefulness of Accounting Estimates for Predicting Cash Flows and Earnings Baruch Lev* New
York University Siyi Li University of Illinois Theodore Sougiannis University of Illinois and ALBA
January, 2009 * Contact information: Baruch Lev (blev@stern.nyu.edu), Stern School of Business,
New York University, New York, NY 10012. The authors are indebted to the editor and reviewers of
the Review of Accounting Studies for suggestions and guidance, and to Louis Chan, Ilia Dichev,
John Hand, James Ohlson, Shiva Rajgopal, and Stephen Ryan for helpful comments, as well as to
participants of seminars at Athens University of Economics and Business, London Business School,
Penn State University, Purdue University, University of Illinois ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
IX). On the other hand, the contribution of estimates to the usefulness of financial information is
counteracted by two major factors: (i) Objective difficulties. In the current volatile and

Literary Elements Of The Odyssey
Book: Testament: Literary Genre: Justification:
Genesis Old
Narrative It is telling a series of events as they occurred. It is also sharing things that happened in
epic proportions.
Exodus Old Narrative It is telling a series of events as they occurred. It is also sharing things that
happened in epic proportions.
Leviticus Old
Law It tells of God's sovereignty. It shares God's law How the people are to act, worship, eat,
build the temple, behavior towards God and others, etc.
Numbers Old
Narrative It is telling a series of events as they occurred. It is also sharing things that happened in
epic proportions.
Deuteronomy Old
Law It tells of God's sovereignty. It shares God's law How the people are to act, worship, ... Show
more content on Helpwriting.net ...
It is also sharing things that happened in epic proportions. This book also has a splash of the history
of the early church.
Romans New
Epistle These are specific letters written to churches during that time from the different apostles.
They are full of information that we can still learn from today and grow in Christ as they suggest.
I Corinthians New
II Corinthians New

Galatians New
Ephesians New
Philippians

How Did Nostradamus Predict The Future
A prophet,A magician,God Many people become confused when the topic of Nostradamus pops
up.Nostradamus and his prophecies gave him popularity throughout his lifetime.Nostradamus wrote
his predictions in an almanac.No one knows if Nostradamus could have actually predicted the
future.
There are many people who say they read the future but there is always a person who shocks the
world Nostradamus was born December 14,1503 in Saint–Remy, France.
Secondly Nostradamus was a french astrologer and physician.
Nostradamus prophecies lates gave him fame and loyal following that he decided to publish a
collection of his prophecies about all of his predictions. lastly .Article sudest that Nostradamus
himself died 1566 he had long suffered from gout and naturally predicted his own length even
though he was one year off. ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
People have always wondered if Nostradamus could have actually predicted the future.in the
centuries since his death,people have credited him with accurately predicting pivotal events in
history, from the french revolution to the rise of Adolf Hitler to the terrorist attacks of Sept 11,2001.
It is said that he would spend haves in his study at night meditating in front of a bowl filled with
water and herbs the meditation would bring on trace and visions.
Nostradamus began writing about his visio and incorporating them into his first almanac.
Nostradamus predicted droughts,murders battles and in matters of time it came true.There are many
people that believe that Nostradamus could have predicted the future. People have always thought if
there are people who see the

Research And Investigation Into Differential Validity And...
Research and investigation into differential validity and differential prediction has been ongoing,
especially as it relates to cognitive ability tests. This is due, in part, to the apparent validity
differences inherent in cognitive ability tests between minority and nonminority groups. Test bias,
differential validity, and differential prediction will be discussed, along with how each of these relate
to cognitive ability tests. Test bias may occur in some situations, and this can sometimes lead to
adverse impact for various subgroups. The concepts surrounding differential validity can also have
an effect on ethical and global considerations for an organization, which will also be explored.
Differential Testing
Test Bias A primary ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Therefore, although it would be ideal to use selection procedures that are highly valid, and display
appropriate diversity, this may not always occur. However, simply because a test shows lower scores
for a minority group does not necessarily mean the test shows bias.
Differential Validity and Differential Prediction A relatively large mean difference found between
various subgroups for general cognitive ability tests is suggestive of bias regarding test scores
(McDaniel Banks, 2010). This perception seems to be supported by single–group validity, which
in this example, would indicate that general cognitive ability tests have validity for one subgroup,
but not the other. Differential validity puts forward the concept that a test has one validity for one
subgroup, and a significantly different validity for another subgroup (McDaniel Banks, 2010).
There is an issue with this line of logic though, single–group validity lacks the comparison needed
to actually compare the two subgroups. Extensive research backs this up, and it has been found that
differential validity is very uncommon (Berry, Barratt, Dovalina, Zhao, 2014; Cascio Aguinis,
2011; McDaniel Banks, 2010). Therefore, different validities for various subgroups in not
necessarily what is occurring with general cognitive ability tests, at least not very often. Instead, the
issue occurring with general cognitive ability tests regarding

Comparative Predictive Modeling On Cnx Nifty With...
Comparative Predictive Modeling on CNX Nifty with Artificial Neural Network
By
Bikramaditya Ghosh, First and Corresponding Author
Asst. Professor, ISME, Bangalore
Address
301, Raghav Harmony, S R layout
Off Wind Tunnel Road
Bangalore–560017
INDIA
E Mail– bikram77777@gmail.com
Phone– +919535015777
Dr. Padma Srinivasan
Assoc. Professor , Christ University, Bangalore
Abstract
CNX Nifty being an important barometer to indicate country's growth has always been followed
with lots of interest from both academia and industry. Now, CNX Nifty could be predicted or not on
a random basis gives rise to many a questions. This sounds redolent with any predictive modeling
though with a certain degree of accuracy in built in to the system. The major point of consideration
is that predictive modeling could be done by various measures and mechanisms. In predictive
modeling Multiple Adaptive Regression (MARS), Classification and Regression Trees (CART),
Logistic OLS or Non Linear OLS could be used. Here in this study the researcher has utilized
Neural Network as a Predictive Modeler to predict CNX Nifty closing on certain random time
zones under consideration.
Keywords
Neural Network, CNX Nifty, Predictive Modeling
Literature Review
Quite a few in depth articles were found in the said domain. However India specific studies were
missing. The author took the baton from his own research, where he did detect the presence of
sentiment in CNX Nifty deploying Probabilistic

Nostradamus Predictions
Since the beginning of time, people have been attempting to catch a glimpse of the future. Coney
Island fortune tellers and the likes have profited greatly off people's fascination with what comes
next. Although a sideshow performer is unlikely to predict any world events, other better qualified
clairvoyants already have. For example, Nostradamus is famed for his future predictions, such as
nearly writing Hitler's name in a notebook years before he came to power. One woman is known as
the Nostradamus of the Balkans for her many prophecies about the future. Prophetess Vanga, better
known as Baba Vanga, predicted a great deal about our future, and some of these predictions may be
coming true.
Prophetess Vanga was born in Strumica, Bulgaria, modern day Macedonia, on January first, 1911
(Daily Musings 1). When she was twelve–years–old, Vanga was lost in a sandy field for days after a
tornado ripped through her home. After several days, she was found alive, but her eyes were badly
damaged from the earth blown into them. The ordeal blinded Vanga and she began going to
attending a school for the blind in 1925 (Mishkov 2). In exchange ... Show more content on
Helpwriting.net ...
She predicted that by 4302 civilization will have a cure for all disease, probably by replacing
diseased parts with perfect clones (Prophecies 2). By beating all disease, people would achieve
immortality. Although obtaining a cure for every disease and malfunction seems impossible, if
doctors were able to replace any and every piece of diseased or damaged tissue with an exact copy
of healthy tissue, there is no reason to believe people could not live forever. For example, a woman
with breast cancer could have per breasts replaced with perfect clones made in an organ printer.
Additionally, an elderly man suffering from Alzheimer's disease could have the deteriorated brain
matter replenished. The possibilities would be

Numerical Weather Prediction Essay
People predict weather differently; barometer, now casting and observing weather conditions by
looking at the sky are just some of methods or examples that can be used to predict the future
weather. In this essay Numerical Weather Prediction will be described using the primitive equations,
and then the difference between the short–term and climate forecasts will be distinguished.
Numerical Weather Prediction model uses the primitive equations to predict future weather based on
the present weather conditions.
There are five different primitive equations that are being used to predict the weather, Wind forecast
equation, it is the equation of motion that explains the movement of air masses in the atmosphere,
the continuity equation deals with the rising of warm, wet air and sinking of cold dry air as the air
columns shrinks and stretches, and then according to Tyson Preston–Whyte(2000:342) the
temperature forecast equation helps the climatologists and meteorologists to see that, there is local
changes in temperature because of the horizontal advection of temperature and there is also changes
in distribution of heat when the adiabatic latent–heat is added to the earth surface and the
atmosphere, moisture forecast equation shows that when condensation, precipitation and
evaporation occurs, ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Diagnostic calculations give the better understanding, of the relation between pressure, density and
temperature, and the horizontal velocity is never included in these calculations. In contrary to
diagnostic calculations the prognostic calculations can easily be divide into two stages, a purely
hydrodynamics which determines the motion of air particles in the atmosphere and thermodynamics
which is used to reach conclusion about changes that occur at different stages of the prediction of
the weather, and the vertical velocity is never included in these prognostic

The Problem Of A Stock Trading System Based On Prediction...
Executive Summary
The dissertation project addresses the problem of trying to build a stock trading system based on
prediction models obtained with daily stock quotes data. We will apply different models to predict
the returns of IBM stocks at the New York Stock Exchange. These predictions will be used together
with a trading rule that will generate buy and sell signals. This chapter addresses several new data
mining issues: (1) how to use R to analyze data stored in a database; (2) how to handle prediction
problems where there is a time ordering among training cases (usually known as a time series); (3)
and the consequences of wanting to translate model predictions into actions.
3.1 Problem description and objectives
Stock market trading is an application domain with a big potential for data mining.
In effect, the existence of an enormous amount of historical data suggests that data mining can
provide a competitive advantage over human inspection of this data. On the other hand there are
authors claiming that the markets adapt so rapidly in terms of price adjustments that there is no
space to obtain profits in a consistent way. This is usually known as the efficient markets hypothesis.
This theory has been successively replaced by more relaxed versions that leave some space for
trading opportunities.
The general goal of stock trading is to maintain a portfolio of stocks based on buy and sell orders.
The long term objective is to achieve as much profit as possible from these

Post Traumatic Stress Disorder ( Ptsd )
Post–traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and can affect anyone due to the likelihood of traumatic
events and is often a common response (Ehlers and Clark, 1999) . In order to ensure the individual is
prescribed relevant medicines and treatments such as counselling or cognitive behavioural therapy
,it is key that we know as much as possible about the event to enable those treating the individual a
full view of what they are going through symptom wise ; as well as a predictive measure on how
they will respond to relevant treatments. Patterns in treatment and research involved in why certain
people develop PTSD are also important as a predictive measure, so that if they were to develop
PTSD they are aware of options available to them. If an event that occurs such as rape, assault,
being held at knifepoint, often direct experiences with traumatic events, it would be right to assume
that these individuals were more likely to experience PTSD or related symptoms. Due to the nature
of such experiences, it is very likely that these will be remembered and every day experiences may
trigger flashbacks, hallucinations or panic attacks, which can prove detrimental to everyday life. If
these incidents are reported, follow up action such as counselling can possibly prevent full blown
symptoms which are often very difficult to deal with and can produce enormous amounts of stress
and confusion upon the sufferer. Even still we cannot pinpoint the extent of an event to particular
symptoms or a

Evaluation Of 30 Day Hospital Readmission Using A Dataset...
II. Literature Review
Silverstein et al. in [24] were to develop and validate predictors of 30 day hospital readmission
using a dataset of more than 29,000 patient's record over the age of 65 and to compare prediction
models that used alternate comorbidity classifications. In these paper they were capable to identify
the risk factors of hospital readmission and calculated the risk of all the attributes by using
prediction model. An important limitation of their study was that it did not directly include
information on patients' abilities to perform activities of daily living or other measures of physical
function.
Strack et al. in [25] studied the impact of HbA1c on readmissions. They used Multivariable logistic
regression to fit the relationship between the measurement of HbA1c and early readmission while
controlling for covariates such as demographics, severity and type of the disease, and type of
admission. The results showed that the measurement of HbA1c was performed infrequently (18.4%)
in the inpatient setting. Their analyzed that the profile of readmission differed significantly in
patients where Hba1c checked in the setting of a primary diabetes diagnosis when compared to
those with a primary circulatory disorder. But cannot addressed cause and effect although the data
provide strong support for development of protocols to examine this hypothesis directly.
Hosseinzadeh et al. in [17] conducted analysis on predictability of hospital readmissions in general

Tinh Son: Summary And Analysis
1
Tinh Son
Spiritual predictions have become an innate cultural aspect all over the world. In Asia, a person
would perform a ritual called Kau Cim to see the future of loved ones who were suffering. This
practice consists of shaking a cylindrical bamboo cup filled with a bundle of number–marked sticks.
When one of the sticks falls out, its corresponding number is said to correctly predict people's
health, relationship, and financial situation. Most times, the result of the ritual would always yield
bad analogy, so one would likely pay a psychic or interpreter afterward to ascertain the prediction. It
was never the ritual itself that determined the victim's disposition, but rather it was the interpreter
who would predict the usually–negative future of the victim, a spiraling cognitive dissonance that
dictated the mind of the ignorant and the desperate, like psychological placebo. In the end, the
interpreter predicted that Unpleasantness will follow you [and the family] for the years to come.
Few people were quick enough to ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
Their mother believed this claim and the sisters became famous as they performed the feat. on tours.
Consequently, people who called themselves psychic began to appear all over the country and they
also claimed to be able to communicate with the spirits. Victims would often pay large sums of
money to attend sÃĐances where the psychics would perform sleight of hand disguised as spiritual
channelings. The movement gained ground until the 1920s, when Houdini began to expose the
fraudulent performances. Thanks to Houdini, we now knew that for every spiritual prediction, props
such as cards, crystals, or even lines on the palm of the hand were means of distraction, so that the
psychic could pay attention to the victim's expressions and reactions during a reading. Other
techniques a psychic would use

Predicting In Middle School
I remember predicting a lot through my science educational career. In middle school, it was like all
we were learning about was the scientific method. We went through all the steps and when we got to
predicting, it looked the same as the hypothesis. Teachers would always ask what do you think will
happen? Predicting was easy, all you had to do was say what you thought would happen with some
reasoning. I remember in fourth grade, we were discussing mixing different liquids and which
would sink and which would float. I did not realize that different liquids have different masses and
thought they would all mix together. I believe the whole class thought the same as I did. When we
carried out the experiment, we were all surprised to see the different layers of liquids lay on top of
each other. ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
We first hypothesized and then predicted, we weighed certain objects to see if they weighed more or
less than its predecessor. The only object I remember predicting incorrectly were the pennies. We
had to see if the pennies would weigh more stacked up or spread out. I did not understand that it was
the same amount of pennies and it would not matter how they were placed, they would weigh the
same regardless. I predicted they would weigh more stacked up but this is how I learned not to let
the shape of an object fool me about its quantity. In college, I had to predict whether a liquid would
change color after it was boiled. That was a hard prediction because I had no previous knowledge
about the liquids, so I just went off of what I believed. I am not sure whether I got it correctly but
the liquids did change

Using A Stock Trading System Based On Prediction Models...
The dissertation project addresses the problem of trying to build a stock trading system based on
prediction models obtained with daily stock quotes data. We will apply different models to predict
the returns of IBM stocks at the New York Stock Exchange. These predictions will be used together
with a trading rule that will generate buy and sell signals. This chapter addresses several new data
mining issues: (1) how to use R to analyze data stored in a database; (2) how to handle prediction
problems where there is a time ordering among training cases (usually known as a time series); (3)
and the consequences of wanting to translate model predictions into actions.
3.1 Problem description and objectives
Stock market trading is an application domain with a big potential for data mining. In effect, the
existence of an enormous amount of historical data suggests that data mining can provide a
competitive advantage over human inspection of this data. On the other hand there are authors
claiming that the markets adapt so rapidly in terms of price adjustments that there is no space to
obtain profits in a consistent way. This is usually known as the efficient markets hypothesis. This
theory has been successively replaced by more relaxed versions that leave some space for trading
opportunities.
The general goal of stock trading is to maintain a portfolio of stocks based on buy and sell orders.
The long term objective is to achieve as much profit as possible from these trading

A Brief Note On Conflict Analysis Using Ssam
Conflict Analysis using SSAM
After the 10 simulations for each intersection were completed in VISSIM, their respective outputs
were imported in SSAM. The analysis in SSAM resulted in possible conflicts generated at each
intersection. As mentioned earlier, the results from the SSAM analysis were filtered to remove any
uncertainties, including possible conflicts of pedestrians. The filters used are explained in Table 3
(Section 2.5.3).
Per Saleem (2012), the principal reason for removing the pedestrian conflicts is that in his study
only vehicle–to–vehicle crashes are modeled. In the same way, this study only focuses on evaluating
safety of signalized intersections with the presence of automated vehicles without including
pedestrians due to ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
The CMF was calculated for each crash prediction model applied at both scenarios: 50%AV and
100%AV. Using the method studied by Shahdah, Saccomanno, Persaud (2014) to predict the CMF
based on simulated conflicts, the total predicted crashes after the countermeasure was applied
(crashes at 100% AV and crashes at 50%AV) were divided by the total predicted crashes before the
countermeasure was applied (crashes at 0%AV). This provided crash modification factors for the
two AV penetration levels investigated in this study.
Finally, to have a better perspective with regards to simulated conflicts and crashes, an average was
calculated for each element used to calculate the CMFs for the four prediction models (crashes at
0%AV, crashes at 100%AV, crashes at 50%AV). With these new values, new CMFs were calculated
for 100%AV and 50%AV with respect to the untreated site scenario of 0%AV.
3.5 Evaluation of Safety Treatments for Signalized Intersections
After analyzing the safety of the 78 signalized intersections when introducing automated vehicles,
this part of the research explored and evaluated the safety effects on crashes when hypothetical
treatments were applied to selected intersections.
The first safety treatment consisted of changing left turn operation from permissive to permissive–
protected. Permissive left turns can raise safety concerns since drivers take a higher risk in crossing
the

Reading Subject : English Year Level
Lesson: (English Groups)
Guided Reading Subject: English Year level: 2 Duration:
30 mins
Content descriptors:
Year 2: Literacy strand; Interpreting, analysing and evaluation sub–strand
Content indicator: Use comprehension strategies to build literal and inferred meaning and begin to
analyse texts by drawing on growing knowledge of context, language and visual features and print
and multimodal text structures (ACELY1670)
Elaborations: Predicting, asking and answering questions as they read, and summarising and
reviewing meaning.
Learning intention: Success criteria:
We will be focusing on how students make predictions before reading texts and during listening.
What is more important, being smart (proud)/well–dressed or being kind? I ... Show more content
on Helpwriting.net ...
As it is going to help them, have a deeper understanding of the texts they read.
Start off by asking students if they know what prediction means. Allow students to share their ideas.
Write down their explanations on the whiteboard.
Afterwards provide students with an explanation of what prediction is and write it next to the
student's explanations.
Introduce the book to the students. Show the cover, read the title and the authors and illustrators
name.
Key Questions:
To activate prior knowledge, back ground knowledge and higher order thinking, start off by asking
if they have read or heard any other stories with giants in them? What were the giants like (other
than being big)?
Then ask predicting questions about the title, 'The Smartest....' Going off the title, what do you think
this story is about? What do you think might happen in this story?
Ask students what the word 'smart' means? Could it mean something else, does it have a double
meaning? E.g. being proud?
Listening, sitting on thinking mat.

Students will be using hand signals to either add something new or add on to what someone else
has said. They a thumbs up for something new and they hold up two fingers if they have
something to add.
Give students the making predictions about the main character worksheet (see appendix B).
Using hand signals, will promote active listening and participation for Rada and other students who
have trouble focusing.
Observing

A Study on SP 500 Index Stock Return and Volatility Using...
A Study on SP 500 Index Stock Return and Volatility using ARIMA and GARCH Modeling
Kaiyuan Song, Di Wu Summary
In this project we first checked consistency and seasonality of SP500 index stock performance by
splitting its recent twenty years historical data into ten two year data and built ARIMA and GARCH
models for each sub–period. We found that the models are considerably consistent before 2007–
2008 sub–period, and there exists some minor seasonality in several subperiods, but no particular
pattern can be identified for the whole period. We then tried to predict future return, volatility and
VaR using the model we built for the last sub–period based on rolling forecast procedure. Though
the fitted values of 10th sub–period model are ... Show more content on Helpwriting.net ...
All of the fitted returns are very close to zero as expected and all fitted volatilities vary according to
fluctuations in actual returns: it goes up when there were large fluctuations and vice versa. Two
sample plots are shown below:
Our prediction model, the tenth period model, fitted the data especially well as illustrated below.
Not only the volatility prediction were accurate, the mean part also provides considerably nice fit.
With the excellent fit from our prediction model, we expect our predictions to be fairly dependable.
Nonetheless, when comparing actual future return with our predicted return and volatility obtained
from 5–day ahead rolling forecast procedure, the results were rather unsatisfactory. All of the
predicted volatilities were considerably high and did not move along with real fluctuations in return
series, which resulted in very significant value at risk. In addition, the return predictions were no
much better than just using sample means, which were all very close to zero, to predict future return.
The prediction vs actual return plot for 60 days is shown below.
To improve our predictions, particularly for volatility part, one–step ahead rolling predictions were
computed, and its prediction vs actual return plot is illustrated below:
Due to the return predictions made by ARIMA were similar to one–step results and not much
better than sample mean prediction, we focused on volatility part and found that one–step

The Empirical Solar Radiation Prediction Models Essay
Literature Review 2.1 Empirical Solar Radiation Prediction Models Solar radiation estimation
models were developed using meteorological parameters and site geographical locations. These
meteorological factors have a major influence on the outcome of solar radiation intensity that
reaches the earth's surface [11–14]. In addition, most models were developed with well–maintained
recorded data provided by weather stations. For these reasons, earlier studies correlating solar
radiation to meteorological parameters were conducted by Angstrom in 1924. In his research, a
simple numerical technique correlating solar radiation to sunshine hours was developed. Equation
(1) represents the modified form of Angstrom model by Prescott as [15]; H_i/H_o =a+bS (1) where
by H_o is the global solar radiation on a clear day, H represents final solar radiation outcome, a and
b are regression coefficients and S equals number of sunshine hours in a day. Since then, numerous
models and numerical techniques have been developed using meteorological parameters together
with the sites geographical locations in developing solar radiation models. Most of these models fall
into three categories [16]; Stochastic Algorithm Satellite Derived Empirical Technique
Correspondingly, several methods were used to estimate solar radiation intensity [17]. The
development of models using empirical relationships has gain wider spectrum of applicability
because of its simplicity and convenient use of variables

Analysis Of 1984 By George Orwell
Bennett Curran
Ms. Melnychenko
English 1–F
12 October 17
Could George Orwell Predict the Future?
John Green once said, Sometimes, you read a book and it fills you with this weird evangelical zeal,
and you become convinced that the shattered world will never be put back together unless and until
all living humans read the book. Throughout George Orwell's bone chilling novel, 1984, he uses
hefty imagery to show the cruelness of the society they live in. While the book was intended to be
guess on the future, Orwell made a pretty accurate prediction. As expected, the book shot way over
what is happening today, but there are a few aspects that stick out. Throughout the book, the reader
is put in the situation where they don't know what is real or fake. However, if all humans were to
read the novel, the struggles that the protagonist faces might be able to be stopped before they
become a problem. George Orwell makes a variety references that relate to the world today from
technology to government, thus, making the book have similar and afflicting views to the society
known today.
To begin, Orwell's futuristic society is in a way like the one known today. In the book, he states, It
was terribly dangerous to let your thoughts wander when you were in any public place or within
range of a telescreen. The smallest thing could give you away. A nervous tic, an unconscious look of
anxiety, a habit of muttering to yourself – anything that carried with it the suggestion of abnormality,

Trend Analysis Essay
Predictions are utilized commonly in the many Areas of Knowledge. Predictions are generally future
Knowledge developed from existing Knowledge. Generally, Frequencies or trends are used to make
predictions.Trend analysis involves the use of any of a variety of techniques based on historical data.
Trend analysis involves several processes. One process is spotting an emerging trend, that is,
identifying a change in the world around us.
In many areas of knowledge, to know is to be able to understand. In the areas of knowledge, the
ones who understand are usually referred to as experts. Usually, The one who is referred as a
specialist is someone who has wrote and studied the specific area extensively. However, One does
not need to be an expert in order to make a prediction.
On the other hand some claims about knowledge are demonstrably better than others.
True conclusions about knowledge can be derived through thoughtful analysis. idealy,
Science seeks to discover and formulate in general terms the conditions under which events occur,
. In other words science tries how natural events occur under controlled
1
conditions like experiments. For example, In the scientific knowledge system they have
1 Abel, 109 the Heisenberg principle stated that you can never know the exact position and exact
position of an electron or any subatomic particle. This shows that inconsistency may exist when
trying to make a scientific prediction. Similarly, In the field of social sciences

Prediction In Macbeth

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Prediction In Macbeth