Slides Nis Frome recently used in his discussion w/ mentees of The Product Mentor. Synopsis: Users are 'divinely discontent' and their preferences and expectations are a moving target. If you're hypotheses are based on outdated research reports or media headlines, you're probably making the wrong decisions. I'll provide data to prove that. The Product Mentor is a program designed to pair Product Mentors and Mentees from around the World, across all industries, from start-up to enterprise, guided by the fundamental goals…Better Decisions. Better Products. Better Product People. Throughout the program, each mentor leads a conversation in an area of their expertise that is live streamed and available to both mentee and the broader product community. http://TheProductMentor.com

1. Your
assumptions
are probably
wrong.
by nis frome

2. Nis Frome
Enabling product teams to
experiment faster
Co-founder at Alpha
product content
2
This Is Product Management
Product Management Insider
About Me

3. 3
Objective
Why, when, and how
effective product managers
de-risk assumptions & inform decisions.

4. 4
Challenge
No matter how smart
or empathic you are,
your assumptions are
(often) still going
to be wrong.

5. 5
Breakdown
When running experiments,
product teams that are certain their
assumptions are right quickly learn:
Customers don’t
understand insider jargon
Assumptions used to be
right but are now wrong
A wrong conclusion was
derived from data or anecdotes
Assumption is right but
about the wrong audience

6. 6
Amazon’s Approach
Customers are divinely discontent.
“One thing I love about
customers is that they
are divinely discontent. Their
expectations are never static
— they go up. It’s human
nature…You cannot rest on
your laurels in this world.
Customers won’t have it.”

7. 7
Stratechery Analysis
“What is amazing today
is table stakes tomorrow.”
How most companies perceive reality Reality

8. 8
It’s Not Just Product Teams
Assumptions are everywhere!
Facebook could charge a similar rate to what it currently earns
from users via ads…Charging $1.65 per month, or even $7 per
month to remove ads from Facebook could feel very reasonable
to some users.
Tulin Erdem, a professor of marketing at NYU's Stern business
school, said she likes the Facebook [apology] ad more than the
others. There's "more of an emotional appeal there," she said. "I
think it's more effective."
Taxi apps may be a cheap and convenient way to travel but
they've created their fair share of controversy…there have been
a disturbing number of Lyft and Uber drivers accused of sexual
assault over the years.

9. 9
Assumptions are Testable
Fight assumptions with experiments!
While respondents trusted Amazon more than the other companies,
they hesitated when asked how willing they would be to engage the
tech giant on certain healthcare initiatives…For each of nine
healthcare-related options, the majority of respondents said they
were not at all interested in receiving those services from Amazon.
If you look at how much kids' content factors
into the choice of whether to subscribe to
Netflix for the respondents to this survey,
38% said it was extremely important.

10. 10
Example
Assumption:
Uber’s new safety features are brilliant
and the solution to safety concerns.

11. 11
Pre-launch Results
Consumers have safety concerns!

12. 12
Post-Launch Results
Reality is often more nuanced...

13. 13
Substantiating Assumptions
When and how should you
test assumptions?
Cost of being wrong
Decisionirreversibility
Ship and iterate
Test alternatives Test alternatives
extensively
Test extensively

14. 14
Intuition
So what is the value of developing
empathy and intuition?
Prioritize
experiments and
methodologies
Foresee potential
customer
expectations
Smarter iterations
and pattern
recognition

15. 15
Getting Started
What assumptions are you holding
onto that haven’t been challenged
recently? It’s time to consider the
risks of being wrong.