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This document provides an overview of recent developments related to climate change and sustainability efforts. It discusses topics like rising global emissions, countries' climate pledges, US power plant rules, the COP21 climate negotiations, progress and shortfalls in achieving the Millennium Development Goals, the Sustainable Development Goal process, initiatives on commodities, renewable energy, cities, and landscapes, the growing carbon pricing club, and global challenges around water and rapid urbanization in India and new leadership mandates in key countries.
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- 2. THINGS ARE HEATING UP Source: NOAA
- 3. ENERGY PRICES ARE COOLING DOWN Source: US Energy Information Agency
- 5. 2014: A YEAR OF MOMENTUM Image: United Nations/Flickr
- 6. 2014: A YEAR OF MOMENTUM 38 countries have a price on carbon
- 7. A SHIFT IN DIALOGUE
- 8. GLOBAL EMISSIONS RISING Source: wri.org/blog/2014/05/history-carbon-dioxide-emissions, image: Theophilos Papadopoulos, Flickr
- 9. CARBON BUDGET RUNNING OUT: ONLY 3 DECADES LEFT Image: Walter/Flickr
- 10. COUNTRY PLEDGES: HOW AMBITIOUS? Image: The White House/Flickr
- 11. US: TAKING A LEAD? Image: Wigwam Jones/Flickr
- 12. POWER PLANT RULES BY THE SUMMER? Source: NRDC Summary of EPA's Clean Power Plan
- 13. COP21: WHAT WILL THE DEAL LOOK LIKE? • How Ambitious? • Regular Review? • Role of Finance? • Long-Term Goal? Image: Simone D. McCourtie / World Bank
- 14. Will the world rise to the climate challenge?
- 15. Image: Ollivier Girard for Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
- 17. MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS 1990-2015 Source: United Nations
- 18. PROGRESS: GLOBAL POVERTY Extreme poverty cut in half Source: World Bank data (POVCAL)
- 19. PROGRESS: CHILD MORTALITY 17,000 fewer children are dying each day Source: UNICEF
- 20. PROGRESS: UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION Number of children out of school halved
- 21. BUT… Photo: Anduze Traveller/Flickr 1.2B people live in extreme poverty 6.5M million children under age 5 die annually 58M children out of school
- 22. GOAL 7: ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY- FALLING SHORT Source: Oxfam International/Flickr
- 23. THE SDG PROCESS SO FAR Image: CIFOR June 2013: High Level Panel Report July 2014: Open Working Group on SDGs Proposal August 2014: Expert Committee on Finance Report December 2014: UN Secretary- General Synthesis Report
- 24. WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME • Universality: A New Global Reality Image: United Nations/Flickr
- 25. WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME • Universality: A New Global Reality • More Comprehensive in Scope Image: United Nations/Flickr
- 26. WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME • Universality: A New Global Reality • More Comprehensive in Scope • Sustainability at the Core Image: United Nations/Flickr
- 27. WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME • Universality: A New Global Reality • More Comprehensive in Scope • Sustainability at the Core • A New Approach to Finance Image: United Nations/Flickr
- 28. FINANCING FOR DEVELOPMENT: JULY 2015 Image: Addis Ababa; Flickr/David Stanley
- 29. Will the world embrace a new approach?
- 31. SUSTAINABLE COMMODITIES: TROPICAL FOREST ALLIANCE Partnership to eliminate tropical deforestation from commodities by 2020 Image: Jan Van Der Ploeg For CIFOR
- 32. RENEWABLE ENERGY: SE4ALL • Universal energy access • 2x the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency • 2x renewable energy by 2030 Image: Jiro Ose/UN Foundation/Flickr
- 33. SUSTAINABLE CITIES: COMPACT OF MAYORS • 228 cities worldwide • Commitment to cut 13 gigatons by 2050 Image: J.P. Engelbrecht, City Hall of Rio de Janeiro/Flickr
- 34. RESTORING LANDSCAPES: NY DECLARATION Commitment to restore 350M hectares by 2030 Image: WRI
- 35. RESTORING LANDSCAPES: GLOBAL MOMENTUM BUILDING? 60M hectares committed so far Source: WRI
- 36. INITIATIVE 20 X 20 Source: WRI
- 37. PRICE ON CARBON CLUB Image: Julie Falk/Flickr 73 governments, 1000+ companies
- 38. Will Clubs Drive Global Results?
- 39. Image: Wikimedia
- 40. A GLOBAL PROBLEM Image: UN Photo/Albert González Farran 1.2B people facing water scarcity
- 41. 36 COUNTRIES FACE EXTREME WATER STRESS Source: Aqueduct
- 42. US WEST: WORST DROUGHT IN 1,200 YEARS California produces nearly 50% of US-grown fruits, nuts and vegetables Source: Aqueduct, CDFA
- 43. ` SÃO PAULO: WORST DROUGHT IN 80 YEARS 20M People Affected
- 44. BRAZIL: A WATER RICH COUNTRY… Amazon basin: 50% of Brazil’s water, but only 4% of population Image: Keith_Rock/Flickr
- 45. …A WATER-STRESSED COAST 80% of Brazil’s pop. in coastal mega-cities Source: Aqueduct
- 46. CHINA 90% of coastal cities face water stress Source: Aqueduct
- 47. EAST CHINA: WORST DROUGHT IN 60+ YRS. Image: Asian Development Bank, Flickr
- 48. RESPONSE: PRIVATE SECTOR Image: MPhotographe, Flickr
- 49. RESPONSE: PRIVATE SECTOR Image: Raiffeisenverband Salzburg/Wikimedia Commons Aqueduct maps on Bloomberg terminals reach 320,000 subscribers
- 50. RESPONSE: GOVERNMENT Image: US Army Corps of Engineers, Los Angeles/Flickr • More water laws? • Water pricing? • Efficiency mandates and incentives?
- 51. RESPONSE: INFRASTRUCTURE Image: Circleofblue.org Total cost at least $62B
- 52. WHAT'S COMING IN 2015 Source: Aqueduct
- 53. Will Water Risk Rise to the Top of the Global Agenda in 2015?
- 55. A NEW MANDATE Source: Al Jazeera English/Flickr
- 56. FOCUS ON GROWTH Source: World Bank 2014
- 57. CITIES ARE BOOMING Source: Ankur Dave/Flickr Urban population 2x by 2030
- 58. AIR POLLUTION RISING • Delhi: World’s worst air pollution • 5th leading cause of death in India Image: Kara Newhouse/Flickr
- 59. MORE ENERGY NEEDED 300M+ Indians lack access to electricity Image: Abbie Trayler-Smith / Panos Pictures / Department for International Development
- 60. URBANIZATION: 100 SMART CITIES Source: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center/Flickr
- 61. HEALTHIER, BETTER CITIES • less sprawl • less pollution • safer streets • less infrastructure costs Image: EMBARQ
- 62. BETTING ON RENEWABLES Image: Abbie Trayler-Smith / Panos Pictures / Department for International Development 100GW of Solar Power by 2022 33x boost in solar capacity
- 63. A LIGHTBULB IN EVERY HOME Image: UN Women/Gaganjit Singh
- 64. A BALANCED APPROACH? Image: R E B E L, Flickr
- 65. LEADERS MEET Image: Official White House Photo by Pete Souza/Flickr
- 66. Will India Successfully Embrace High Efficiency, Low-Carbon Growth?
- 68. NEW MANDATES: 1.8 BILLION PEOPLE President Dilma Rousseff, Brazil Prime Minister Nahendra Modi, India President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey President Joko Widodo, Indonesia
- 69. AND IN THE U.S. Image: Adam Fagen/Flickr
- 70. A SUSTAINABLE LEGACY Image: Christopher Dilts, Obama for America/Flickr
- 71. AND 2016? Image: Justin Brown/Flickr
- 72. Image: Abbie Trayler-Smith / Panos Pictures / Department of International Development/Flickr
Editor's Notes
- 2014 was the hottest year on record. 15 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997. about the graph image I created from noaa data incorporating the latest data for 2014 (avg for 2014 does not include december data) source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/ytd/12/1880-2014 Bill, I can send you the excel file if you need it (for animation, etc) The years listed include the 5 hottest on record, plus 2014
- 2014 was a year of momentum US Power Plant Rules UN Secretary General’s Climate Summit Climate March in NYC https://www.flickr.com/photos/125892136@N07/15310013301/in/faves-worldresourcesinstitute/ US-China agreement Pledges to the Green Climate Fund break $10b Lima - Moves things forward New Climate Economy shows how to achieve growth and climate acti
- 39 countries (and 23 cities, states and provinces) have a price on carbon
- Talking points… As we move forward to Paris will more private sector leaders and finance ministers make the economic case for climate change action? AS: need a hook to watch around 2015-- will there be more economic ministers/private groups buying into this thing- From original slide: Private sector leaders, finance ministers A deal will be strong if we get the economic case Image of Calderon from COP20 or from NCE launch? Slide 7: P2P: What to Watch #3: Will the Conversation Shift? Image: Felipe Calderon at UN NCE Launch or COP20 Ministerial
- http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/05/history-carbon-dioxide-emissions
- talking points; beyond the “when” of pledging, let’s look at what we know so far. NOTE: we cannot say how the US/China announcements take a us toward a 2C target. Taryn says they have estimates, but we cannot cite or publish them without further review. She suggests: If you need some language on the 2C target, I would stick to something fairly generic like “the announcements are a step in the right direction, but more needs to be done to meet the 2C goal." text from original slide: Slide 5b: Chart showing what has been pledged so far - or what the US + China + EU pledges add up to - from our blogs? Useful content here: but probably too detailed: http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/numbers-china-us-climate-agreement Need to see if we can simplify. Can we say how many countries have already pledges? Molly: no….
- What initial offers will countries make? Will they be ambitious? What will take place between those offers and Paris? AS notes: will they pledge in March? (note this is a suggested but not required date for pledging) What will their initial offers be and what kind of process will exist between those offers in June and the paris meeting itself? Notes from original slide #1) Will Countries Raise Their Ambition? (INDC) What will countries offers be. Process between process and Paris meeting
- Talking points: What will the role of the US be as we move forward to Paris? It will be determined by its credibility of its proposal to cut emissions by 26-28% from 2005 levels. This reduction will depend on the final EPA rules, to be issued this June. AS: role of us is determined by its credibility; of which the PP rules are Notes from original slide: Notes from Kevin: I think the short answer is the thing to watch is how EPA balances the input they received that has claimed on the one side that they are demanding too much too fast with those of others (like us) who say they haven’t nearly tapped the potential available from efficiency and renewables and could go much further. To tie it to the path to Paris, the question is what does the final standard say about the US pathway to meeting the target Obama announced in November of a 26 to 28 percent reduction from 2005 by 2025. As for timing, I’ve not heard anything suggesting that they will miss their June 2 target date for final rules. Kevin
- Image: M Obeiter’s suggestion from NRDC see here http://www.nrdc.org/air/pollution-standards/files/pollution-standards-epa-plan-summary.pdf The US goal is ambitious.
- Ambitious? Review Mechanism? Role of Finance? Long-term Plan for Net Zero? Talking points: And lastly, what will the climate deal ultimately look like? (order here may need to change) if it is to be successful, the deal must have the following four elements: it must be ambitious enough to meet the challenge we face. Countries must make serious commitments as they put together their INDCs. It must have enough international rigor to be effective, so there must be a review mechanism Next, what role will finance play? A climate deal will only be strong if powerful business and government leaders must support it and help to make the economic case for it Lastly, will there be an anchor, a long-term goal to phase out GHGs to net zero? Notes from Jennifer: 1.) a new form of international cooperation is emerging from Lima which combines national priorities for economic growth and development (every country putting forward its INDC) with an effective, predictable and ambitious global agreement that includes all countries. 2015 will be about striking the right balance and ensuring both that the INDCs are ambitious and the agreement has enough international rigor in it. 2.) the opportunity and need is to create a new process where every country comes back every five years and strengthens its mitigation commitment until a long-term goal is met. The long-term goal chosen should provide more clarity and predictability both for business and investors but also for the public eg a phase out of GHGs to net zero. This new model is gaining interest and support but will require engagement from business, cities, NGOs, etc to succeed. 3.) it will be a hard and messy and challenging year. Getting almost two hundred countries to agree on something is not easy, but it is within reach. 4) in order to succeed heads of state will have to stay involved, along with foreign ministers, finance ministers and economic ministers. This cannot be sorted out alone by the climate negotiators but requires leaders to prioritize and engage in new ways of cooperating with each other to solve this crisis of our time. AS notes: say “what will the final deal look like: it must have the following four elements” MOVED FROM CUT SLIDE ON ROLE OF FINANCE: Green Investments? Finance? 10B to GCF Role of private sector? (1000 companies?) Need to discuss with AS: Slide 8: P2P: What to Watch #4: Increase in Green Investments? AS notes: thinks we should merge private sector with shift in dialogue; turn shift in dialogue towards a deal in paris will be strong only if powerful corp and govt leaders get the economic case AS: put the finance story as to oart of what the deal will look like in Paris another one needs to be a review mech another one needs to be a long term anchor: zero net emissions by … FOUR things to watch now;
- Tentative wrap up slide: (with one punchy question) AS notes: if we say let me say there are 5 things to watch, we are then suggesting that each story will be just as long so he would be inclined not to use the 1,2,3,4,5 summary slides may not be necessary original slide: Slide #10: Summary - 3 (or 5) things to watch Summary of above? Or do we want to say what will make the deal a success?
- talking points: But before we look ahead to the forthcoming SDGs, let’s take and look at how we’ve done with the Millennium development goals: the MDGs were 8 goals, each with several targets, aiming to achieve the following: 1. Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty 2. Achieve universal primary education 3. Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women 4. Reduce Child Mortality 5. Improve Maternal health 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases 7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability 8. Develop a Global Partnership for Development (suggested animation if Andrew wants for the squares to come in) old from oriiginal slide SLIDE: Millennium Development Goals (image MDGs goals logos: http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/ )
- Talking points: Global Poverty (measured at $1.25/day) was halved from the 1990 baseline year, achieving goal one 5 years ahead of schedule. As a result, 700 million less people live in extreme poverty today than in 1990. (UN reports) point: while they have their critics, they have been more successful than most of us anticipated graph: source World Bank data (povcal) logo The logo images from the millennium development goals (the colorful squares with numbers and symbols) can be found here and simpler versions without wording here. Let me know if you have any issues in pulling these images.
- The world is currently reducing under--five mortality faster than at any other time during the past two decades. In that time, the likelihood of a child dying before the age of five has been nearly cut in half.
- United Nations
- Talking points: despite the progress that we have seen in global development during the MDG era, more progress is still urgently needed... 1.2 billion people still live in extreme poverty 58 million children remain out of school; The poorest children continue to drop out of school at the highest rates, and there is much need to improve the quality of education and learning outcomes in developing regions. 6.6 million children under age five died in 2012, mainly from preventable deaths as a result of infectious diseases such as pneumonia, diarrhea, and malaria. Undernutrition is a significant contributing factor to many of these deaths. 300,000 women died in 2013 from mostly preventable causes related to pregnancy and childbirth. And mothers in developing countries are 14 times as likely to die than mothers in developed nations. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the maternal mortality ratio is more than 30 times the ratio in developing countries. Globally, four out of every five deaths of children under age five continue to occur in sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia. Source: UN Reports
- Talking points: The aim of the SGGs is to be: “action-oriented, concise, and easy to communicate, limited in number, aspirational, global in nature and universally applicable to all countries while taking into account different national realities, capacities , and levels of development and respecting national policies and priorities” (UN open working group) So how will they be different from the MDGs? First of all, the SDGs are to be universal. While the MDGs primarily focused on the developed world helping the developing world improve development benchmarked against 8 goals and 18 targets, the SDGs will to apply to all countries. The world is different than in the 1990s… (population growth/location of poor people/middle income countries) and the nature of poverty and our development challenges have changed.
- NEW NOTES: The Mandate to develop SDGs first came from the Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development in June 2012. Over the past 18 months, significant progress towards agreeing on a new global development agenda. In 2013, the Secretary-General’s High Level Panel released the first proposal of goals and targets, setting the stage. In 2014, a group of 70 member states worked together to propose set of goals and targets, an international committee of experts released a report on sustainable development finance, and the secretary-general released a synthesis report covering all this and more. Photo link: https://flic.kr/p/eF1gsf
- Whereas sustainability in the MDGs was incorporated in Goal 7, this goal omitted to say anything about developed country consumption levels, seeming to imply that sustainability was mainly a task for developing nations. More, it represented a silo-based approach with no acknowledgement for the need for sustainability concerns to be mainstreamed throughout all development goals. The new name of the development goals is a recognition of the need for this to change. Climate change poses grave risks to all people and all countries, but its negative impacts will disproportionately harm poor people and poor countries. World Bank Report Turn Down the Heat: “Climate change poses a substantial and escalating risk to development progress that could undermine global efforts to eliminate extreme poverty and promote shared prosper.” “Ending poverty, increasing global prosperity and reducing global inequality, already difficult, will be much harder with 2°C warming, but at 4°C there is serious doubt whether these goals can be achieved at all.”
- Whereas sustainability in the MDGs was incorporated in Goal 7, this goal omitted to say anything about developed country consumption levels, seeming to imply that sustainability was mainly a task for developing nations. More, it represented a silo-based approach with no acknowledgement for the need for sustainability concerns to be mainstreamed throughout all development goals. The new name of the development goals is a recognition of the need for this to change. Climate change poses grave risks to all people and all countries, but its negative impacts will disproportionately harm poor people and poor countries. World Bank Report Turn Down the Heat: “Climate change poses a substantial and escalating risk to development progress that could undermine global efforts to eliminate extreme poverty and promote shared prosper.” “Ending poverty, increasing global prosperity and reducing global inequality, already difficult, will be much harder with 2°C warming, but at 4°C there is serious doubt whether these goals can be achieved at all.”
- Whereas sustainability in the MDGs was incorporated in Goal 7, this goal omitted to say anything about developed country consumption levels, seeming to imply that sustainability was mainly a task for developing nations. More, it represented a silo-based approach with no acknowledgement for the need for sustainability concerns to be mainstreamed throughout all development goals. The new name of the development goals is a recognition of the need for this to change. Climate change poses grave risks to all people and all countries, but its negative impacts will disproportionately harm poor people and poor countries. World Bank Report Turn Down the Heat: “Climate change poses a substantial and escalating risk to development progress that could undermine global efforts to eliminate extreme poverty and promote shared prosper.” “Ending poverty, increasing global prosperity and reducing global inequality, already difficult, will be much harder with 2°C warming, but at 4°C there is serious doubt whether these goals can be achieved at all.”
- Whereas sustainability in the MDGs was incorporated in Goal 7, this goal omitted to say anything about developed country consumption levels, seeming to imply that sustainability was mainly a task for developing nations. More, it represented a silo-based approach with no acknowledgement for the need for sustainability concerns to be mainstreamed throughout all development goals. The new name of the development goals is a recognition of the need for this to change. Climate change poses grave risks to all people and all countries, but its negative impacts will disproportionately harm poor people and poor countries. World Bank Report Turn Down the Heat: “Climate change poses a substantial and escalating risk to development progress that could undermine global efforts to eliminate extreme poverty and promote shared prosper.” “Ending poverty, increasing global prosperity and reducing global inequality, already difficult, will be much harder with 2°C warming, but at 4°C there is serious doubt whether these goals can be achieved at all.”
- PHOTO OPTION 1 Before the goals are finalized though, countries will meet in Addis Ababa to agree to discuss with how to pay for a new agenda. We are 13 years after the first conference on financing for development in Monterrey. Since then, the financing landscape has changed dramatically: Role of private sector – Foreign direct investment in developing countries tripled between 2001 and 2010 (though 80% to just 6 countries – BRIC + Singapore and Chile). $50 trillion is held in international equity markets (for reference, total ODA in 2013 was $138 billion) Innovative Finance – the ‘green bond’ market is forecast to have increased by $40bn in 2014 and could grow by as much as another 100 bn in 2015 Domestic resources – Developing country tax revenue has grown from 1.5 in 2000 to 7 trillion in 2007 This will cover not only ‘aid’ but also other sources of finance Agreement here will be critical not only for financing development, but also for building trust and momentum to carry us to… [next slide] Photo Link: https://flic.kr/p/i832J5 Citations: Private Sector: Greenhill, R., and Prizzon, A. (2012). Who Foots the Bill? What new trends in development finance mean for the post-MDGs. ODI Working Paper 360. London: Overseas Development Institute. And World Bank data. Innovative finance: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1a4b33ba-0da0-11e4-815f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3O8LFAoLI Domestic resources: OECD/AfDB/UNDP, African Economic Outlook 2014: Global Value Chains and Africa’s Industrialisation, Paris, 2014
- coalitions for action
- SE4All UN initiative established in 2011 that bring leadership from government, civil society, and businesses together to work on 1) providing universal access to modern energy services, 2) doubling the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency and 3) doubling the share of renewable energy mix by 2030
- Compact of Mayors - 200 major cities by Paris? announced in 2014 agreement by city networks to undertake a trasnparent and supportive approach to reduce city-level emissions, reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to climate change working with leading global city networks (ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability, C40 Climate Leadership Group, United CIties and Local Governments (UCLG) commitments to set targets and adopt reporting standards
- Bonn Challenge (on forests, climate change and biodiversity) global initiative to restore 150 million hectares of world’s degraded and deforested lands by 2020 supported by the global partnership on Forest Landscape Resotration (GPFLR) largest restoration initiative the world had ever known - very ambitious nearly a dozen countries and institutions made land restoration pledges in 2011 in Bonn, Germany leading to real progress on the ground: annual net benefit of restoring 150 million hectares is more than $80 billion every year impact on fighting climate change is huge; achieving the bonn challenge would 1b metric tons of CO2e could be sequestered every year, reducing the gap by as much as 20% (Bonn Challenge website statistics) april conf? mention bonn challenge, compact of mayors, tropical forest alliance/consumer goods forum, SE4all also Carbon Price Club… - do we see a price on carbon club making more action? don’t have a lot of description (that will be verbal); what matters are clear markers on the road for each of these as to what we will be looking for i.e. will 15% is approved under RSPO?
- https://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/4801402531
- Cooperation The formation of a club allows members to pool resources and generate both investment and press and attention to specific issues Members can learn from one another, share expertise, and cooperate in areas such as research, development and financing Transformative Action Clubs can become building blocks for (additional action) by providing proof of concept for other non-member actors (i.e. Energiewende in Germany for how-to on energy transition as well as the RSPO for sustainable product sourcing at the global scale) Clubs can also be transformational by creating a platform that other actors and organizations can join or follow (i.e. Launch of 20x20? There was a cascade of several Latin American countries that joined to the partnership as the model and financing were solidified) (have Walter/Sean review any of 20x20 examples) Complement the UNFCCC and multilateral UN climate regime Most importantly, clubs have the ability to support and complement the UNFCCC and efforts to get a global agreement by 2015
- APM - not as obviously drought, but shows development around and centrality of Huangpu river to Shanghai Alternative - http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Dust_over_China_2010-03-12_lrg.jpg Dust storm over China in 2010
- Water is a global stressor - but it affects countries differently in different ways. [APM - changed from ‘drought.’ It narrows us down earlier than we need.] WRI mapped the 36 countries with the highest water stress (Andrew M verified). More than 80 percent of the water available to agricultural, domestic, and industrial users is withdrawn annually—leaving businesses, farms, and communities vulnerable to scarcity.
- Context: Brazil water resources and population unevenly distributed: Notes: Brazil has more freshwater than any country in world – 12% entire planet’s total volume. Amazon River basin -- roughly 50% country’s water, only 4% population. About 80% of Brazilians live in coast megacities which rely on their own local river basins. ~40% of population in Brazil’s largest cities faces medium to extremely high water stress Water supplies can vary significantly from season to season and from year to year APM -- Sao Paulo actually only faces medium stress -- so if drought can be that damaging in SP, imagine higher-stress cities.
- APM - high res available
- APM - not as obviously drought, but shows development around and centrality of Huangpu river to Shanghai Alternative - http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Dust_over_China_2010-03-12_lrg.jpg Dust storm over China in 2010
- Limit use: average resident of the city of São Paulo still consumes roughly 200 litres of water a day, well above the 150 litres in much of Europe Until recently, SP officials shied away from demanding people stop using so much water SP’s Alckmin administration announces fines for users whose consumption increases Plans to distribute water tanks, kits to prevent leaky faucets Thanks to years of investment Ambev, a big brewer, now needs 3.3 litres of water to make one of beer, down from 5 litres in 2002. Slow deforestation rates to increase supply of fresh water APM -- We don’t know Ambev, though the Economist is obviously a fine source. See other ideas: AB InBev, one of the world’s largest brewing companies: HQ in Sao Paulo Around Sao Paulo: CYAN Bank, consumers rewarded for lower water consumption at home. Program promotes conservation in SP-supplying river basin, and beverage facility in Jaguariúna. (Source) Tied local water sustainability action plans and plant manager bonuses to Aqueduct water risk information. Global targets for 2017: Reduce water/bottle of beer by 9.6 percent Reduce water risks, improve management in 100 percent of key barley-growing regions. Partner w/ stakeholders for fresh water access Consider all Betazone examples: Recently, WRI has connected with companies like McDonalds, IKEA, Anheuser Busch-Inbev, and Procter & Gamble to help them better understand where their water risks are greatest and how to better manage these challenges. McDonalds plans to incorporate Aqueduct’s water risk assessment of their restaurants into their water stewardship strategy, which is currently being developed. Ikea will use Aqueduct target water efficiency projects. Procter & Gamble identified facilities with the highest water stress. AB InBev tied local water sustainability action plans and plant manager bonuses to Aqueduct water risk information. McDonald’s IKEA AB InBev P+G
- APM: China, Brazil, India-based comms/experts would have a better sense of this than we do. A few notes from Daniel on what he, the team, and I have talked through so far: China’s “Three Red Lines.” policy implemented in 2010 Cap annual maximum water use at 700 billion cubic meters (about 25 percent of annual available supply) Increase irrigation use efficiency to 60 percent by 2030 Protect water quality to maximize sustainable development. More: In 2010, China’s Communist Party Central Committee and State Council promulgated a “three red lines” (santiao hongxian 三条红线) policy intended to establish clear and binding limits on water quantity usage, efficiency, and quality. In early 2012, the State Council announced that the “three red lines” policy would limit total national water consumption to less than 700 billion cubic meters per year, amounting to approximately three-quarters of China’s total annual exploitable freshwater resources.[16] In addition, the policy attempts to increase irrigation use efficiency to 60% by 2030.[17] These headline policies are augmented by increased investment, including 1.8 trillion RMB in 2011-2015, primarily for irrigation infrastructure improvements, rural clean water delivery, and reservoir enhancements.[18] WRI: to meet a cap on total water demand, China must increase water efficiency (see “Three Red Lines”) in 13th Five-Year Plan Right now, China not on track. Aqueduct worked with Asian Development Bank to make recommendations for 13th 5 year plan: include restricted water use for synthetic natural gas. WRI: water efficiency, wastewater re-use should be prioritized
- In 2015, the South to North Water Transfer Project starts flowing as construction on the central route continues World’s biggest water diversion project, 40-50 years to complet Under construction since 2002 Total cost at least $62 billion Three canal systems: east, central, and west 2014 sees completion of central route’s first phase Water from Hubei province → northern cities Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and Zhengzhou. Local industries routinely dump 1.3m tons of untreated sewage daily into Danjiangkou reservoir. How to improve water quality? In planning: Western route supplementing the Yellow River with water from the upper reaches of the Yangtze River
- This year, WRI will be releasing new future projection maps overlaying climate projections and water risk. We will also be releasing the world’s first country-specific water risk tool of its kind, focused on India. Finally, a new flood analyzer will show the
- India has a new PM: Narendra Modi >>First leader from the BJP in a decade. He is a populist leader but who also bring a brash leadership style and pro-business tendencies. >>With a lot of attention to sustainability and climate, India - the largest democracy in the world - will be in the spotlight this year: >>President Obama will make a visit to India for the second time later this January. This is an unprecedented trip for an American president to visit India twice. It is nontrivial symbolically as well because Obama will be the first guest for India’s Republic Day (comments via Manish) >>Modi has indicated that he is going to be very active in his first months in office and we are entering a very important 6-12 months for him to advance his agenda >>2015 is a critical window of time for the Modi government, which is moving quickly in many areas of environment and development.
- >>How will India reconcile its pro-growth agenda and a need to continue to raise it environment and human development standards? >>We are likely to see a mixed record as Modi attempts to strengthen India’s role as a global force, enhance living standards for its people, while recognizing the growing pressure on India’s natural resources.
- Modi’s mandate was for growth Recent growth has been lackluster TALKING POINT: Environmental degradation is reducing India’s GDP by 5.7% ($80B) per year. [Alternate]
- India's urban population is projected to grow from 340 million in 2008 to 590 million in 2030, according to a 2010 McKinsey and Company study. Indian cities are expected to gain 218 million people in the next 20 years (2014-2033) (2014) http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html The number of Indian cities with a population over 1 million was 12 in 1981; 35 in 2001; 50 in 2011 and 87 in 2031. http://www.icrier.org/pdf/FinalReport-hpec.pdf
- Half of the top 20 most polluted cities are in India (CNN/WHO data) http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/08/world/asia/india-pollution-who/ Air pollution is the 5th leading cause of death in India, with 620,000 premature deaths in 2010. This is up from 100,000 in 2000 – a six-fold increase. (2012) http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease Health risks of pollution http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/air-quality/en/
- This number is equivalent to: [25% of population]
- Modi government has announced a project to invest $1.2 billion in smart cities over the next year, with funding coming from private investors and abroad. SLIDE: Map of India with India’s mega-cities? OR Image of Mumbai/ or chart depicting magnitude of urbanization. India’s rapid urbanization has been described as the “defining feature of the economy in the coming decade.” [Can we add a little more on the smart cities initiative - do they have any sustainability goals and/or transport goals in it?] AS notes: what are we looking for? is there some indication that they are starting to be part of this uban revolution that is beginning? walkability livability? different attitude to shape and transportation of cities?
- AS INDIA MOVES FORWARD, WILL CITIES GROW ON A BUSINESS AS USUAL PATHWAY OR WILL THE NEW INFRASTRUCTURE LEAD TO HEALTHIER, HAPPIER BETTER CITIES? SOURCE: https://www.flickr.com/photos/embarq/12494458303/in/set-72157638760869463
- Increase solar power to 100 GW by 2022—five times the previous (administration’s) target. [Up from 3 GW capacity today (confirm)] Modi's government has put forth a slew of ambitious renewable energy goals. The country's minister of power and energy, Piyush Goyal, told a gathering of wind turbine makers in August that he intended toadd 10,000 megawatts of capacity to the sector every year—that's about half of the country's current total installed capacity. Modi's government formalized its support for renewables with theannual budget it released in July, allotting funds for "green energy corridors" that are meant to address chronic issues with transmitting energy from renewable sources to market. The budget also funds the development of small solar parks along canals and solar-powered pumps for farms, among other sustainability initiatives. But in some respects, the budget's scale was modest: I OLD India has committed to increase india’s renewable energy by 100 MW in the next XX years - a fivefold increase over previous levels. OLD Modi promises to develop enough solar power to run at least one light bulb every home by 2019. (LINK) India plans to double its wind energy within next 5 years and improve efficiency of cars, buildings and appliances (Environmental Minister at UNGA)(OLD image Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfid/4058016973/in/photolist-7bAp5c-7bDUoW-eMzno9-5Ym2eg-7bAp4Z-ntsD3-7bDP8Y-gxjkbt-gxjjDX-nVGotd-gxjHhF-7gzsMp-7bAp4T-7bDUp9-9TiJD6-9QWQ4d-akcNZj-9TiJWr-7bDUp5-d2fmBC-bemZ58-bWZ6Qa-7bAp4K-MMd1n-5w8tLh-58JLko-7bAp52-7bDUpo-3CNrcT-9uMmaE-7PfkFE-6dvBFp-gZRf6Z-99w6gz-RfEeA-7bDP95-9bs2dj-5GpMS5-5J1VXs-7wmoRs-HKuo2-9zzDeL-8SZLUC-5xBjF8-aDe7GY-aka3Dn-dCSYuv-5xBjFi-5xBjFe-5xBjFk
- Shortly after Modi took office in May, one of his party officials made a sweeping promise: India would develop enough solar power to run at least one light bulb every home by 2019. The goal is part of a larger push to boost renewables in India, where energy demand is projected to double over the next 20 years. (via Manish) AS INDIA MOVES FORWARD ON THIS , ON ENERGY: WILL WE STAY DEEPLY DEPEENDENT ON FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTS OR WILL THEY BE ABLE TO REALIZE RENEWABLE MASSIVELY BOLD ? Optional: But… coal still accounts for more than 50% of india’s electric power, and that is not projected to decrease in any near term projections… India faces a formdiable challenge to wean itself off coal given population growth, vast energy poverty, and energy demand gr
- In going after this growth, WHAT TO LOOK For AS INDIA MAKES THESE MAJOR INVESTMENTS, HOW DO THEY MAKE SURE THAT THE RIGHTS OF THE POOR ARE PROTECTED… (See lalanath’s language) (Ani suggests fact on most cities have yet to be built.../ chart showing that none of the top cities are within WHO standards) Last August, the Environment, Forests, and Climate Change Ministry set up a High-level Committee to review several pieces of legislation as part of an Environmental Law Review in order to “suggest appropriate amendments to bring them in line with their objectives” Concerns that the review will undermine environmental protection
- A MORE IMMEDIATE WHAT TO LOOK FOR: OBAMA TO VISIT INDIA IN A FEW WEEKS Unprecedented visit- only time a US president has ever visited India twice. Obama will be a guest at republic day celebrating constittion This is really a signal that India is a huge player in the world today UNCERTAIN what direction india will play… As a leader, as a poverty-striken nation, as a huge emitter facing huge development challenges…. old What happens when Obama meets with Modi in January What role will India play on the world’s stage
- QUESTION NEEDS WORK
- https://www.flickr.com/photos/kreshnaaditya/15411469497
- These leaders represent a combined 1.8 billion people--a full quarter of the global population. What will newly elected leaders do in the coming year as they position their countries on the issue of climate and sustainability as we move closer to the SDGs and to Paris? How will newly elected leaders and their administrations enact existing policies, and introduce new policies?
- And, of course, we also saw a new wave of members of Congress - including a shift in the balance of power. US GOP takes control of both houses of Congress and has promised to govern--how will they lead? President Obama appears to be taking a bolder approach on a number of issues where he has executive authority - including on climate change Will the GOP adopt a rational strategy to deal with climate change? https://www.flickr.com/photos/afagen/5570984382
- Will Hillary be the candidate [assuming she is running, ha, ha] … and who from the Republican field will emerge? As the candidates come into the field, what will be their stance on the biggest environmental and sustainability issues of our times? image option hillary hillary 2 hillary 3