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Working the Science and 
Regulations Harder to Win Your 
Drug and Device Cases 
John A. Clark, MD, MSPH 
April Zambelli-Weiner, Ph.D., M.P.H. 
David H. Schwartz, Ph.D.
BRIEF INTRODUCTION 
David H. Schwartz, Ph.D. 
Founding Partner, Innovative Science 
Solutions, LLC
Drug and Device Cases 
Historical Perspective 
Early / Landmark Cases Representative Drug Cases Representative 
Device Cases
Big Stakes! 
Phen-Fen Litigation 
• $6.44 Billion 
Value of class action 
settlement 
• $567.67 Million 
Plaintiff awards
The Science-Based Approach 
in Drug and Device Litigation 
Craft a Winning 
Scientific Strategy 
Recruit the Best 
Experts 
Inherit the Scientific 
Facts and Data 
Gain Crucial 
Admissions from 
Opposing Experts 
Direct 
Align all Facts with 
Strategy 
Best 
Resolution! 
Develop Affirmative 
Case 
Cross
Q And it's on this forest plot, along with its odds ratio and confidence 
interval, correct? 
A Yeah. 
Q And if you look at the last study on the forest plot, it's the same 
study, Kornum 2010, same odds ratio and same confidence interval, 
true? 
A You're right. 
Q And to paraphrase My Cousin Vinny, no self-respecting 
epidemiologist would do a meta-analysis by including the same study 
twice, correct? 
A Well, that was an error. Yeah, you're right. 
5 
SSRI Birth Defect Litigation 
Testimony of Anick Bérard, Kuykendall v. Forest Labs, at 223:14-17; 238:17- 
20; 239:11-240:10; 245:5-12 (Cole County Missouri Nov. 15, 2013)
The Causation Question 
Drug/device is not capable of 
causing the condition (General 
Causation defense) 
Drug/device can cause the condition 
but didn’t in this case (Specific 
Causation Defense) 
Drug/device can/did cause the 
condition, but the warnings were 
adequate (product misuse)
Clinical Data 
Published Case Reports 
Epi Studies 
Discovery Development Market 
Approval / 
Launch 
Litigation filed 
Phase I / II 
Phase III 
Phase IV Studies (PMS) 
S 
p 
o 
n 
s 
o 
r 
Spontaneous AEs 
I 
n 
d 
e 
p 
e 
n 
d 
e 
n 
t 
RCTs
Presenters 
John A. Clark, M.D., M.S.P.H. 
President and Chief Medical Officer, 
PCSglobal 
Making Effective Use of Safety Surveillance 
Data in Drug and Device Litigation 
April Zambelli-Weiner, Ph.D., M.P.H. 
President and Founder, Translational 
Technologies International 
The Use of Epidemiological Data in Product 
Liability Litigation
Making Effective Use of Safety 
Surveillance Data in Drug and 
Device Litigation 
John A. Clark, M.D., M.S.P.H. 
President and Chief Medical Officer, 
PCSglobal
KEY DEFENSE COMPONENTS 
Traditional Pharmacovigilance 
Case-based 
reporting since 
early 1960’s 
Important causality 
information in 
some individual 
cases 
Many 
interconnections 
(ICH E2B 
standard) 
3 level system – 
company, national, 
international 
(WHO) 
Cases come from 
studies, literature, 
medical practice, 
Internet 
Epidemiological 
study follow-up 
Reporting 
patterns 
(e.g. over 
time, by 
geography)
KEY DEFENSE COMPONENTS 
Safety Signaling 
• Safety signaling is a process that assesses multiple cases 
• Disproportionality – cases occur more often than expected 
• Threshold – arbitrary setting that defines a safety signal 
• Two phases of safety signaling 
o Phase 1: Signal detection (identification of signals) 
o Phase 2: Signal evaluation (case series and other analyses) 
• Signal detection methods 
o Type 1: Individual case information that suggest disproportion 
o Type 2: Disproportions from case reporting systems 
o Type 3: Statistical disproportions from studies with a control group 
• Type 2 methods produce high false positive rates 
• Phase 1/2 may or may not be followed by formal studies
SAFETY SIGNALING 
US Regulations 
Clinical 
(312.32) 
Assess safety 
related 
information from 
all sources 
Certain cases 
sent in 15 days 
(7 days if fatality) 
Case series 
analysis for 
expedited 
case reports 
Postmarketing 
(314.80) 
Assess safety 
related 
information 
from all sources 
Certain cases 
sent in 15 days 
Case-based 
reporting 
High false 
positive rate, 
establishes 
expected 
reporting 
patterns 
Non-case 
based 
Disproportions 
subject to 
interpretation
SAFETY SIGNALING 
Generally Accepted Practices 
• Derive from CIOMS and ICH consensus conferences 
o CIOMS = Conference of International Organizations of the Medical 
Sciences (sponsored by WHO; Headquarters is in Geneva) 
o ICH = International Conference on Harmonisation (sponsored by US, 
Japan, and EU; Headquarters is in Geneva) 
• CIOMS consensus conferences bring together thought 
leaders from agencies and industry on risk topics 
• ICH considers CIOMS recommendations and creates 
international guidelines 
o May or may not be enacted into law by countries, BUT 
o Is used by agencies as a basis for auditing
SAFETY SIGNALING 
Trends and Updates 
• Case-based signaling using “designated 
medical events” 
o Low incidence 
o Can be caused by drugs, biologics, or devices 
• FDA’s sentinel system 
o Available only to FDA 
o Applies signaling techniques to non-spontaneous datasets 
• Combining adverse event and product 
complaint data 
• Signaling within risk management programs
Safety Signaling 
Comments 
• Both case processing and safety signaling are 
extensively described by CIOMS and ICH 
• Safety signaling is not “one size fits all” 
• Signals come from multiple sources: individual 
cases, groups of cases, studies, and non-human 
data 
• Develop objective case definitions 
• Look for confounding factors 
• Assess case series over time to identify effects due 
to the information system (rather than the product) 
• Don’t overemphasize epidemiological study results
SAFETY SIGNALING 
Client Performance? 
• Signaling is a process; Responsibility = 
establishing appropriate processes? 
o Processes clearly defined 
o Processes carried out appropriately 
o Results of internal and agency audits or inspections 
addressed by CAPAs 
• When did the signal first occur? (company 
reaction time) 
• Training and education? (e.g., medical 
expertise) 
• Pharmacovigilance plan in place? 
• Systems appropriate for the monitoring plan?
SAFETY SIGNALING 
Data Source Checklist 
 
Was a comprehensive case series 
evaluation done? 
 
Regulatory requirement 
 
Clear criteria for when a case series 
evaluation must be done 
 
Frequently exonerates the product 
 
Literature screening procedures 
 
Internet case screening? 
 
FDA’s Adverse Event Reporting 
System database (FAERS) 
 
FDA’s Manufacturer and User 
Facility Device Experience database 
(MAUDE) 
 
Product complaint/product quality 
database (especially for biologics) help 
to monitor for: 
 
Counterfeit product 
 
Contract manufacturing issues 
 
Difficult manufacturing processes 
(e.g., complex biologics) 
 
Integrated clinical trial data 
 
Specialized datasets (registries, risk 
management compilations) 
 
Claims or electronic medical record 
data
HANDLING OF SAFETY ISSUES 
What Should the Jury Know? 
• Client company has good processes in place 
for finding, evaluating, and conveying safety 
signals 
• Client company responded quickly 
• Clear, supportable case definition 
• Other causative (confounding) factors 
• Information system factors (e.g., publicity) 
• Study design factors
LESSONS LEARNED 
EXAMPLES 
Vioxx and vascular events 
• Product pulled from market before an assessment of all data had been performed 
• Sales force and publication strategy misinformed the public about study results 
• Most vascular event cases had numerous confounding factors 
• Epidemiological studies are consistent with a slight association of the same 
magnitude for ibuprofen 
• Advisory committees in multiple countries have voted to reintroduce the product 
Do a thorough analysis of all 
sources of data, including cases 
Represent potential safety 
problems accurately to the public 
Don’t panic and pull a drug off 
the market prematurely 
Lesson 1 
Lesson 2 
Lesson 3
LESSONS LEARNED 
EXAMPLES 
Metal-on-metal hip replacement and early hip joint 
damage 
• Monitoring systems at the company were rudimentary 
• Many so-called cases did not qualify as cases 
• Study design and data sources for epidemiological studies that showed a 
low level increase in joint damage were not well done 
• Much of the increase in reporting was publicity induced 
• There was not an accepted biological mechanism 
Make sure case reporting 
processes are robust 
Critically evaluate 
epidemiological study results 
Always look at the timing of case 
reporting 
Lesson 1 
Lesson 2 
Lesson 3
LESSONS LEARNED 
EXAMPLES 
GLP-1 anti-diabetic drugs and adenocarcinoma of the pancreas 
 
The link to adenoCA of the pancreas is largely based on case reporting 
 
AdenoCA of the pancreas is a co-morbid condition of diabetes 
 
Confounder: adenoCA of the pancreas occurs at the same anatomical location as the site of 
activity; reporters can easily draw a conclusion of possible relationship based on this 
observation 
 
Subsequent studies have not clearly demonstrated this link 
 
Incidence and prevalence of adenoCA of the pancreas is increasing 
Look carefully at cases for 
sources of bias 
Design epi studies to minimize 
case level biases 
Beware whenever the event is 
becoming more common 
Lesson 1 
Lesson 2 
Lesson 3
LESSONS 
LEARNED EXAMPLES 
Over-the-counter products and gastrointestinal events 
 
Musty smell and GI events found in reports for OTC products 
 
Company initiated multiple recalls and posted GI events on their website 
 
Incidence and prevalence of the GI events were extremely high 
 
Comparison of product (odor) and adverse event (GI events) databases showed 
no relationship 
 
Eventual toxicity studies done with a malodorous contaminant showed that it was 
very low level and was biologically inert 
Create process that minimize publicity until 
all data has been evaluated 
Product complaint processes that continue 
indefinitely until the root cause of an 
important finding is clear 
Lesson 1 
Lesson 2
The Use of Epidemiological Data in 
Product Liability Litigation 
April Zambelli-Weiner, Ph.D., M.P.H. 
President and Founder 
Translational Technologies 
International
Types of Studies and Sources of Data 
PRIMARY 
RESEARCH 
 Randomized 
Clinical Trials 
 Observational 
Studies 
 Post-Market 
Registries 
SECONDARY 
RESEARCH 
 Comparative 
Effectiveness 
 Health 
Economics 
and 
Outcomes 
Research 
 Systematic 
Reviews 
 Meta-Analyses 
 Pooled Analyses
Analytic Study Designs 
Randomized Control Trials 
(experimental) 
Cohort studies (observational) 
Case-control studies (observational) 
Cross-sectional studies (observational)
Randomized Clinical Trials (RCTs) 
Conducted in 4 Phases, each of which 
answer different research questions 
Phase I 
• Testing in humans 
• Small sample size 
• Preliminary testing 
of safety, dosage, 
and side effects 
Phase II 
• Testing in humans 
• Larger sample 
size 
• Additional testing 
of efficacy and 
safety 
Phase III 
• Testing in humans 
• Large sample size 
and follow-up to 
support 
registration 
• “Pivotal” Studies: 
compare efficacy 
and safety against 
placebo and 
comparator 
Phase IV 
• Post-market 
studies 
• Provides 
information 
regarding safety 
and efficacy of 
drug within real-world 
context 
Pivotal Trials
Strengths and Limitations of Clinical Trials 
STRENGTHS 
 Can be used to 
evaluate causation 
Gold standard for 
obtaining evidence 
of a treatment effect 
Randomization 
protects against 
most forms of bias 
LIMITATIONS 
 Do not reflect real-world 
use scenarios 
Narrow Focus 
Expensive 
Only possible 
where there is 
“intervention” that 
people are willing to 
be randomized to
Observational Studies 
Used to study a wider range of exposures 
than experimental studies 
“Natural” experiments 
Mitigate many issues which are not 
feasible in experimental studies
Strengths and Limitations of Observational 
Studies 
STRENGTHS 
 Provide information 
on “real world” use and 
practice 
Larger sample sizes 
Longer follow-up 
periods 
Less costly 
Different study 
designs 
Efficient use of 
available data 
LIMITATIONS 
 Subject to many 
biases 
Limited control over 
composition of the 
control groups 
Standardization of 
exposures and 
outcomes varies 
Data more likely to be 
incomplete and of 
poorer quality
Post-Market Registries 
• Subset of observational studies 
•Follows subjects forward in time and collects 
information on well-defined outcomes of 
interest for analysis and reporting 
•Registry participants are recruited on a disease 
basis or exposure/treatment basis
Strengths and Limitations of Registries 
STRENGTHS 
Large number of cases with 
long-term follow-up 
Reflect “real-world” 
experience on diverse patient 
population 
Can examine issues such 
as the impact of clinical 
experience or surgical skill 
Additional data such as 
patient-reported outcomes 
LIMITATIONS 
Data not 100% 
verified 
Variability in data 
definitions 
Under-reporting 
Difficulty in 
prospective follow-up 
Incompleteness of 
data 
Competing registries
THE USE OF 
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA IN 
LITIGATION
Two types of data that are key to 
causal assessment 
Published 
Clinical data 
Epidemiological data 
Proprietary Studies
Know Your Numbers 
Accurate analysis of study data can address 
important questions about potential safety signals 
— Could a safety signal have been detected 
earlier than reported? 
— Despite the report of adverse events, do 
the aggregate data show statistically 
meaningful evidence of harm to patients? 
— Are results being driven by a single study 
or a particular patient subgroup?
Example 
TABLE 1 
Event 
All Controlled Studies, n (%) Placebo Controlled Studies, n (%) 
DRUG 
N=12,581 
Control 
N=11,214 
Rate 
Ratio and 
95% CI 
(p-value)† 
DRUG 
N=3758 
Control 
N=2044 
Rate 
Ratio and 95% 
CI 
(p-value)† 
Deep Vein Thrombosis 15 (0.12) 9 (0.08) 
1.49 
0.65-3.55 
3 (0.08) 4 (0.20) 
0.41 
0.08-1.98 
Venous Thrombosis Limb 0 (0.00) 2 (0.02) 
0.20* 
(p=0.44) 
0 (0.00) 0 (0.00) - 
Pulmonary Embolism 4 (0.03) 1 (0.01) 
3.57 
0.45-88.23 
4 (0.11) 1 (0.05) 
2.18 
0.27-53.86 
TABLE 1 REVISED 
Event 
All Controlled Studies, n (%) Placebo Controlled Studies, n (%) 
DRUG 
N=15,391 
Control 
N=13,453 
Rate 
Ratio and 
95% CI 
(p-value)† 
DRUG 
N=5510 
Control 
N=3093 
Rate 
Ratio and 
95% CI 
(p-value)† 
Deep Vein Thrombosis 16 9 
1.55 
(0.69-3.68) 
3 4 
0.42 
(0.08-2.04) 
Venous Thrombosis Limb 0 2 
0.44* 
(p=0.44) 
0 0 -- 
Pulmonary Embolism 5 1 
4.37 
(0.61-104) 
4 1 
2.25 
(0.28-55.56)
Methodological Issues 
Outcome reporting (lumping vs. splitting) 
 See FDA Guidance for Industry, Premarketing Risk Assessment, 
2005 
Clinical protocols (monitoring and detection) 
 Spontaneous reporting vs. active surveillance 
Inclusion and exclusion criteria 
 Generalizability of the study populations to general population 
Length of follow-up 
 Were trials adequate to detect AEs/SAEs
Other Important Analyses 
Sensitivity Analyses 
 Is risk specific to a particular subgroup? 
 Are findings robust to choice of control group? 
Analysis of registry data 
 Are there consequences of long-term use? 
 Do we see AEs in previously unstudied populations or 
vulnerable populations? 
Review/analysis of observational studies 
 Do we see replication across studies? 
 What is the evidence for pooled analyses or meta-analyses?
Example: Subgroup Analyses (Risk/Benefit 
Ratio) 
Risk of 
Adverse 
Event 
Benefit
PUBLISHED DATA
The Publication Record 
What was level of corporate involvement? 
Did all investigators have full access to study 
data? 
What findings were published and which 
findings were not published – and why? 
What can be discerned from the published 
data?
A Current Example: Testosterone Therapy 
10/30/2014 
43 
Industry 
Sponsored 
Studies 
Summary 
OR=0.89 
95% CI 
(0.50-1.60) 
Non- 
Industry 
Funded 
Studies 
Summary 
OR=2.06 
95% CI 
(1.34-3.17)
Excerpted from ISMPP presentation , http://www.ismpp.org/assets/docs/Inititives/GPP2/chris_graf_ismpp_u_may2010.pdf
Conclusion 
Know the sources of data for your product 
Know the strengths and weakness of that 
data 
Understand the implications of 
methodological choices in generating and 
analyzing data 
Look for data gaps 
Review the publication record
For more information or to discuss your 
needs feel free to contact: 
Dr. April Zambelli-Weiner 
Translational Technologies International (TTI) 
aweiner@transtechint.com 
800-580-2990, ext 100
Q & A

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Working the Science and Regulations Harder to Win Your Drug and Device Cases

  • 1. Working the Science and Regulations Harder to Win Your Drug and Device Cases John A. Clark, MD, MSPH April Zambelli-Weiner, Ph.D., M.P.H. David H. Schwartz, Ph.D.
  • 2. BRIEF INTRODUCTION David H. Schwartz, Ph.D. Founding Partner, Innovative Science Solutions, LLC
  • 3. Drug and Device Cases Historical Perspective Early / Landmark Cases Representative Drug Cases Representative Device Cases
  • 4. Big Stakes! Phen-Fen Litigation • $6.44 Billion Value of class action settlement • $567.67 Million Plaintiff awards
  • 5. The Science-Based Approach in Drug and Device Litigation Craft a Winning Scientific Strategy Recruit the Best Experts Inherit the Scientific Facts and Data Gain Crucial Admissions from Opposing Experts Direct Align all Facts with Strategy Best Resolution! Develop Affirmative Case Cross
  • 6. Q And it's on this forest plot, along with its odds ratio and confidence interval, correct? A Yeah. Q And if you look at the last study on the forest plot, it's the same study, Kornum 2010, same odds ratio and same confidence interval, true? A You're right. Q And to paraphrase My Cousin Vinny, no self-respecting epidemiologist would do a meta-analysis by including the same study twice, correct? A Well, that was an error. Yeah, you're right. 5 SSRI Birth Defect Litigation Testimony of Anick Bérard, Kuykendall v. Forest Labs, at 223:14-17; 238:17- 20; 239:11-240:10; 245:5-12 (Cole County Missouri Nov. 15, 2013)
  • 7. The Causation Question Drug/device is not capable of causing the condition (General Causation defense) Drug/device can cause the condition but didn’t in this case (Specific Causation Defense) Drug/device can/did cause the condition, but the warnings were adequate (product misuse)
  • 8. Clinical Data Published Case Reports Epi Studies Discovery Development Market Approval / Launch Litigation filed Phase I / II Phase III Phase IV Studies (PMS) S p o n s o r Spontaneous AEs I n d e p e n d e n t RCTs
  • 9. Presenters John A. Clark, M.D., M.S.P.H. President and Chief Medical Officer, PCSglobal Making Effective Use of Safety Surveillance Data in Drug and Device Litigation April Zambelli-Weiner, Ph.D., M.P.H. President and Founder, Translational Technologies International The Use of Epidemiological Data in Product Liability Litigation
  • 10. Making Effective Use of Safety Surveillance Data in Drug and Device Litigation John A. Clark, M.D., M.S.P.H. President and Chief Medical Officer, PCSglobal
  • 11. KEY DEFENSE COMPONENTS Traditional Pharmacovigilance Case-based reporting since early 1960’s Important causality information in some individual cases Many interconnections (ICH E2B standard) 3 level system – company, national, international (WHO) Cases come from studies, literature, medical practice, Internet Epidemiological study follow-up Reporting patterns (e.g. over time, by geography)
  • 12. KEY DEFENSE COMPONENTS Safety Signaling • Safety signaling is a process that assesses multiple cases • Disproportionality – cases occur more often than expected • Threshold – arbitrary setting that defines a safety signal • Two phases of safety signaling o Phase 1: Signal detection (identification of signals) o Phase 2: Signal evaluation (case series and other analyses) • Signal detection methods o Type 1: Individual case information that suggest disproportion o Type 2: Disproportions from case reporting systems o Type 3: Statistical disproportions from studies with a control group • Type 2 methods produce high false positive rates • Phase 1/2 may or may not be followed by formal studies
  • 13. SAFETY SIGNALING US Regulations Clinical (312.32) Assess safety related information from all sources Certain cases sent in 15 days (7 days if fatality) Case series analysis for expedited case reports Postmarketing (314.80) Assess safety related information from all sources Certain cases sent in 15 days Case-based reporting High false positive rate, establishes expected reporting patterns Non-case based Disproportions subject to interpretation
  • 14. SAFETY SIGNALING Generally Accepted Practices • Derive from CIOMS and ICH consensus conferences o CIOMS = Conference of International Organizations of the Medical Sciences (sponsored by WHO; Headquarters is in Geneva) o ICH = International Conference on Harmonisation (sponsored by US, Japan, and EU; Headquarters is in Geneva) • CIOMS consensus conferences bring together thought leaders from agencies and industry on risk topics • ICH considers CIOMS recommendations and creates international guidelines o May or may not be enacted into law by countries, BUT o Is used by agencies as a basis for auditing
  • 15. SAFETY SIGNALING Trends and Updates • Case-based signaling using “designated medical events” o Low incidence o Can be caused by drugs, biologics, or devices • FDA’s sentinel system o Available only to FDA o Applies signaling techniques to non-spontaneous datasets • Combining adverse event and product complaint data • Signaling within risk management programs
  • 16. Safety Signaling Comments • Both case processing and safety signaling are extensively described by CIOMS and ICH • Safety signaling is not “one size fits all” • Signals come from multiple sources: individual cases, groups of cases, studies, and non-human data • Develop objective case definitions • Look for confounding factors • Assess case series over time to identify effects due to the information system (rather than the product) • Don’t overemphasize epidemiological study results
  • 17. SAFETY SIGNALING Client Performance? • Signaling is a process; Responsibility = establishing appropriate processes? o Processes clearly defined o Processes carried out appropriately o Results of internal and agency audits or inspections addressed by CAPAs • When did the signal first occur? (company reaction time) • Training and education? (e.g., medical expertise) • Pharmacovigilance plan in place? • Systems appropriate for the monitoring plan?
  • 18. SAFETY SIGNALING Data Source Checklist  Was a comprehensive case series evaluation done?  Regulatory requirement  Clear criteria for when a case series evaluation must be done  Frequently exonerates the product  Literature screening procedures  Internet case screening?  FDA’s Adverse Event Reporting System database (FAERS)  FDA’s Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience database (MAUDE)  Product complaint/product quality database (especially for biologics) help to monitor for:  Counterfeit product  Contract manufacturing issues  Difficult manufacturing processes (e.g., complex biologics)  Integrated clinical trial data  Specialized datasets (registries, risk management compilations)  Claims or electronic medical record data
  • 19. HANDLING OF SAFETY ISSUES What Should the Jury Know? • Client company has good processes in place for finding, evaluating, and conveying safety signals • Client company responded quickly • Clear, supportable case definition • Other causative (confounding) factors • Information system factors (e.g., publicity) • Study design factors
  • 20. LESSONS LEARNED EXAMPLES Vioxx and vascular events • Product pulled from market before an assessment of all data had been performed • Sales force and publication strategy misinformed the public about study results • Most vascular event cases had numerous confounding factors • Epidemiological studies are consistent with a slight association of the same magnitude for ibuprofen • Advisory committees in multiple countries have voted to reintroduce the product Do a thorough analysis of all sources of data, including cases Represent potential safety problems accurately to the public Don’t panic and pull a drug off the market prematurely Lesson 1 Lesson 2 Lesson 3
  • 21. LESSONS LEARNED EXAMPLES Metal-on-metal hip replacement and early hip joint damage • Monitoring systems at the company were rudimentary • Many so-called cases did not qualify as cases • Study design and data sources for epidemiological studies that showed a low level increase in joint damage were not well done • Much of the increase in reporting was publicity induced • There was not an accepted biological mechanism Make sure case reporting processes are robust Critically evaluate epidemiological study results Always look at the timing of case reporting Lesson 1 Lesson 2 Lesson 3
  • 22. LESSONS LEARNED EXAMPLES GLP-1 anti-diabetic drugs and adenocarcinoma of the pancreas  The link to adenoCA of the pancreas is largely based on case reporting  AdenoCA of the pancreas is a co-morbid condition of diabetes  Confounder: adenoCA of the pancreas occurs at the same anatomical location as the site of activity; reporters can easily draw a conclusion of possible relationship based on this observation  Subsequent studies have not clearly demonstrated this link  Incidence and prevalence of adenoCA of the pancreas is increasing Look carefully at cases for sources of bias Design epi studies to minimize case level biases Beware whenever the event is becoming more common Lesson 1 Lesson 2 Lesson 3
  • 23. LESSONS LEARNED EXAMPLES Over-the-counter products and gastrointestinal events  Musty smell and GI events found in reports for OTC products  Company initiated multiple recalls and posted GI events on their website  Incidence and prevalence of the GI events were extremely high  Comparison of product (odor) and adverse event (GI events) databases showed no relationship  Eventual toxicity studies done with a malodorous contaminant showed that it was very low level and was biologically inert Create process that minimize publicity until all data has been evaluated Product complaint processes that continue indefinitely until the root cause of an important finding is clear Lesson 1 Lesson 2
  • 24. The Use of Epidemiological Data in Product Liability Litigation April Zambelli-Weiner, Ph.D., M.P.H. President and Founder Translational Technologies International
  • 25. Types of Studies and Sources of Data PRIMARY RESEARCH  Randomized Clinical Trials  Observational Studies  Post-Market Registries SECONDARY RESEARCH  Comparative Effectiveness  Health Economics and Outcomes Research  Systematic Reviews  Meta-Analyses  Pooled Analyses
  • 26. Analytic Study Designs Randomized Control Trials (experimental) Cohort studies (observational) Case-control studies (observational) Cross-sectional studies (observational)
  • 27. Randomized Clinical Trials (RCTs) Conducted in 4 Phases, each of which answer different research questions Phase I • Testing in humans • Small sample size • Preliminary testing of safety, dosage, and side effects Phase II • Testing in humans • Larger sample size • Additional testing of efficacy and safety Phase III • Testing in humans • Large sample size and follow-up to support registration • “Pivotal” Studies: compare efficacy and safety against placebo and comparator Phase IV • Post-market studies • Provides information regarding safety and efficacy of drug within real-world context Pivotal Trials
  • 28. Strengths and Limitations of Clinical Trials STRENGTHS  Can be used to evaluate causation Gold standard for obtaining evidence of a treatment effect Randomization protects against most forms of bias LIMITATIONS  Do not reflect real-world use scenarios Narrow Focus Expensive Only possible where there is “intervention” that people are willing to be randomized to
  • 29. Observational Studies Used to study a wider range of exposures than experimental studies “Natural” experiments Mitigate many issues which are not feasible in experimental studies
  • 30. Strengths and Limitations of Observational Studies STRENGTHS  Provide information on “real world” use and practice Larger sample sizes Longer follow-up periods Less costly Different study designs Efficient use of available data LIMITATIONS  Subject to many biases Limited control over composition of the control groups Standardization of exposures and outcomes varies Data more likely to be incomplete and of poorer quality
  • 31. Post-Market Registries • Subset of observational studies •Follows subjects forward in time and collects information on well-defined outcomes of interest for analysis and reporting •Registry participants are recruited on a disease basis or exposure/treatment basis
  • 32. Strengths and Limitations of Registries STRENGTHS Large number of cases with long-term follow-up Reflect “real-world” experience on diverse patient population Can examine issues such as the impact of clinical experience or surgical skill Additional data such as patient-reported outcomes LIMITATIONS Data not 100% verified Variability in data definitions Under-reporting Difficulty in prospective follow-up Incompleteness of data Competing registries
  • 33. THE USE OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA IN LITIGATION
  • 34. Two types of data that are key to causal assessment Published Clinical data Epidemiological data Proprietary Studies
  • 35. Know Your Numbers Accurate analysis of study data can address important questions about potential safety signals — Could a safety signal have been detected earlier than reported? — Despite the report of adverse events, do the aggregate data show statistically meaningful evidence of harm to patients? — Are results being driven by a single study or a particular patient subgroup?
  • 36. Example TABLE 1 Event All Controlled Studies, n (%) Placebo Controlled Studies, n (%) DRUG N=12,581 Control N=11,214 Rate Ratio and 95% CI (p-value)† DRUG N=3758 Control N=2044 Rate Ratio and 95% CI (p-value)† Deep Vein Thrombosis 15 (0.12) 9 (0.08) 1.49 0.65-3.55 3 (0.08) 4 (0.20) 0.41 0.08-1.98 Venous Thrombosis Limb 0 (0.00) 2 (0.02) 0.20* (p=0.44) 0 (0.00) 0 (0.00) - Pulmonary Embolism 4 (0.03) 1 (0.01) 3.57 0.45-88.23 4 (0.11) 1 (0.05) 2.18 0.27-53.86 TABLE 1 REVISED Event All Controlled Studies, n (%) Placebo Controlled Studies, n (%) DRUG N=15,391 Control N=13,453 Rate Ratio and 95% CI (p-value)† DRUG N=5510 Control N=3093 Rate Ratio and 95% CI (p-value)† Deep Vein Thrombosis 16 9 1.55 (0.69-3.68) 3 4 0.42 (0.08-2.04) Venous Thrombosis Limb 0 2 0.44* (p=0.44) 0 0 -- Pulmonary Embolism 5 1 4.37 (0.61-104) 4 1 2.25 (0.28-55.56)
  • 37. Methodological Issues Outcome reporting (lumping vs. splitting)  See FDA Guidance for Industry, Premarketing Risk Assessment, 2005 Clinical protocols (monitoring and detection)  Spontaneous reporting vs. active surveillance Inclusion and exclusion criteria  Generalizability of the study populations to general population Length of follow-up  Were trials adequate to detect AEs/SAEs
  • 38. Other Important Analyses Sensitivity Analyses  Is risk specific to a particular subgroup?  Are findings robust to choice of control group? Analysis of registry data  Are there consequences of long-term use?  Do we see AEs in previously unstudied populations or vulnerable populations? Review/analysis of observational studies  Do we see replication across studies?  What is the evidence for pooled analyses or meta-analyses?
  • 39. Example: Subgroup Analyses (Risk/Benefit Ratio) Risk of Adverse Event Benefit
  • 40.
  • 42. The Publication Record What was level of corporate involvement? Did all investigators have full access to study data? What findings were published and which findings were not published – and why? What can be discerned from the published data?
  • 43.
  • 44. A Current Example: Testosterone Therapy 10/30/2014 43 Industry Sponsored Studies Summary OR=0.89 95% CI (0.50-1.60) Non- Industry Funded Studies Summary OR=2.06 95% CI (1.34-3.17)
  • 45.
  • 46. Excerpted from ISMPP presentation , http://www.ismpp.org/assets/docs/Inititives/GPP2/chris_graf_ismpp_u_may2010.pdf
  • 47. Conclusion Know the sources of data for your product Know the strengths and weakness of that data Understand the implications of methodological choices in generating and analyzing data Look for data gaps Review the publication record
  • 48. For more information or to discuss your needs feel free to contact: Dr. April Zambelli-Weiner Translational Technologies International (TTI) aweiner@transtechint.com 800-580-2990, ext 100
  • 49. Q & A