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The broadest problem in science:
      Our publishing system




Alex.Holcombe@sydney.edu.au
School of Psychology




                          http://www.slideshare.net/holcombea/

                          @ceptional
                                                                 1
Inefficient
   Opacity, Sluggishness, Redundancy,
      Redundancy, & Redundancy!



                                          from
                                        Kravitz &
                                         Baker
                                         (2011)




                                                2
Incomplete

The File-Drawer Problem
                                                              •Little career incentive to publish
                                                              a non-replication or a replication
                                                              •Very difficult to publish a non-
                              unpublished                     replication or replication
                                results                         •Most journals only publish
                                 files                           papers that “make a novel
                                                                contribution”
                                                                •Reviewers/editors tend to hold
                                                                non-replicating manuscript to
 http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickperez/2569423078 t. magnum     higher standard than original.
                                                                •Bem example

                                                                                                    3
Incomplete
The File-Drawer Problem


                             Tower of
                            unpublished                      Corollary 4: The greater the
                              results                        flexibility in designs, definitions,
                                                             outcomes, and analytical modes in
                               files                          a scientific field, the less likely the
                                                             research findings are to be true.
                                                             Flexibility increases the potential for
                                                             transforming what would be “negative”
                                                             results into “positive” t most
                                                                                     results.
                                                                                ha
                                                                  oan  nidis t
                                                       ree with I
                                        hile  we ag .”
 http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickperez/2569423078 t. lse..
                           m  ary, w are famagnum             Corollary 6: The hotter a scientific field (with more
              “I  n sum findings                              scientific teams involved), the less likely the research
                       rch
               resea                                          findings are to be true.



                                                                                                                        4
Barriers to publishing replications and failed-
replications

• No glory in publishing a replication
• Few journals publish replications
  • usually uphill battle even with
    those that do
• The wrath of the original researcher




                                              5
File-drawer fixes
•   Journals that don’t reject
    replications for being
    uninteresting or unimportant
                                        ◦   •   ✔



•   Pre-registration of study designs
    and analysis methods
                                        ◦   •   ◦


•   Brief reporting of replications
                                        ◦   ✔   ◦



                                                    6
http://psychfiledrawer.org/view_article_list.php


                                                  7
Pashler,
                                                                          Spellman,
                                                                         Holcombe&
                                                                         Kang (2011)




DETAILS page: http://psychfiledrawer.org/replication.php?attempt=MTU%3D




                                                                                       8
http://psychfiledrawer.org/view_article_list.php


                                                  9
File-drawer fixes
•   Journals that don’t reject
    replications for being
    uninteresting or unimportant
                                        ◦   •   ✔



•   Pre-registration of study designs
    and analysis methods
                                        ◦   •   ◦


•   Brief reporting of replications
                                        ◦   ✔   ◦



                                                10
More efficient, more complete
 ROIM- peer Review of Intro & Methods
 1. Authors plan a replication study
 2. They submit an introduction and methods section

 3. It is sent to reviewers, including the targeted author
 4. The editor decides whether to accept/reject, based on:

    1. Reviewer comments regarding the proposed protocol

    2. Importance of the study, judged by argument in the
       introduction, number of citations of original, reviewer
       comments
                                                                    •   •   ✔
 5. The Intro, Method and analysis plan, and reviewer comments
    are posted on the journal website

 6. When the results come in, the authors write a conventional
    results and discussion section and that together with the raw
    data are posted, yielding the complete publication

    1. some sort of minimal peer review needed for that. What
       exactly?

                                                                                11
ROIM- peer Review of Intro & Methods


 •   Original author sort-of signed off on it, so can’t
     complain / hate the replication authors as much.
 •   Good way to start for a new PhD project, anyone
     planning to build on some already-published results
 •   Reduce the incentive to publish flashy, headline-
     grabbing but unreliable studies?
                                                           •   •   ✔




                                                                   12
Incomplete
post-publication
peer review




      When a new paper
      appears, readers often spot logical flaws,
      experimental weaknesses, questionable
      assumptions or alternative interpretations.
      Yet individual criticisms may not be
      considered important enough to warrant
      publication. Even major criticisms are
      unlikely to appear until months or years
      later, and are often overlooked in the
      haystacks of the literature.




                                                    13
post-publication
peer review

The people who
DON’T notice the
problems with a paper
cite it, the people who
DO, don’t. So people
not in the area never
find out how flawed a
paper is.
                          The article in question was published in the
                          Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
                          and at the time of writing has had 270 citations.


                          I did a spot check of fifty of those citing articles to
                          see if any had noted problems with the paper: only
                          one of them did so. The others repeated the
                          authors’ conclusions


                                   http://deevybee.blogspot.com.au/
                                   2012/03/time-for-neuroimaging-to-
                                   clean-up-its.html

                                                                                    14
post-publication
peer review
Absence of it means we
don’t have many
indicators of quality of
individual articles.


Reinforces reliance on
poor measures like
journal impact factor.




                           15
I have a dream.. our papers will be judged not
by the impact factor of their journal, but by the
quality of their content




                                                    16
I have a dream that one day,
our papers will be judged not by the
impact factor of their journal, but by
the quality of their content




                                         from Peter Binfield’s talk
                                                                      Impact Factor
                                                                      announced (4.3)




                                                                                        17
ROIM- peer Review of Intro & Methods

•   Original author sort-of signed off on it, so can’t complain / hate
    the replication authors as much.



•   Good way to start for a new PhD project, anyone planning to
    build on some already-published results
•   Reduce the incentive to publish flashy, headline-grabbing but
    unreliable studies?
                                                                         •   •   ✔

•   How to incorporate post-publication commentary?




                                                                                 18
ROIM- peer Review of Intro & Methods

•   What publisher to publish it?




                                       19
Scientist meets publisher: the video




              Academic knowledge is boxed
              in by expensive journals.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMIY_4t-DR0


                                             20
• Free
 Why Open Access?                                       • Full-text
                                                        • Online access

•Academia marginalising itself
                                 The countries we work with can’t
•More impact!                    afford journals; they’re already
                                 paying an arm and a leg for
                                 textbooks -Sir John Daniel
•We do our research to
benefit anyone interested, not
some exclusive club              The academic community
                                 is only hurting itself, and
•Many scholars, doctors,         its long term public
patients, engineers,             support, by keeping its
policymakers (and esp. in poor   knowledge behind high

countries/small universities)    subscription walls -
                                 Andrew Carr
can’t get access
                                                                          21
OA HULK WANTS TO KNOW WHO TO
                     OCCUPY!

                     ELSEVIER!? ACS!? HARPERCOLLINS!?

                     YOU NAME IT, OA HULK WILL OCCUPY AND
                     SMASH!
Open Access “Hulk”




                                                            22
Institutional Subscription Cost, 2012
                              Experimental Brain Research $13,670
           Journal of Radioanalytic and Nuclear Chemistry $19,826
                          Journal of Mathematical Sciences $17,880
                               Journal of Materials Science $16,699




$3983 USD per article for Elsevier
$1350 USD per article for PLoS ONE

Claudio Aspesi at http://poynder.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/open-access-brick-by-brick.html




                                                                                           23
$3983 USD per article for Elsevier
$1350 USD per article for PLoS ONE
Claudio Aspesi at http://poynder.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/open-access-brick-by-brick.html

                                                                                           24
Ryan Orr http://www.flickr.com/photos/ryan_orr/615470501




•Not all closed-access publishers
profiteer

•The real enemy is us!

                                                                                   25
How to help
 •Deposit your manuscripts in the university repository
 (http://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/

    •Even with closed journals, you often have the right to
    deposit your final version (e.g. Word document before
    typeset by publisher)
 •Best for university and its funders if research outputs open
 access; indeed it’s mandated by:
    •NIH, Wellcome Trust
                                                                 Let me know i
    •Princeton, Harvard

    •Queensland University of Technology

 •Support open-access publishing models
    •PLoS, BioMed Central, eLife

    •I don’t recommend paying for open-access “choice” in
    closed corporate-published journals

 •Support innovations that address problems of inefficiency
 and incompleteness

                                                                       26
Comprehensive solution?
    Open Science


 •As data comes in, uploaded
 automatically to web
 •Electronic lab notebook
 •Papers written via open
 collaborative documents on the web




                                      27
12/21


Wikipedia(vs.(Academic(Papers(




                           Mat Todd

                                         28
Industry suffers less from such metrics, but it is nevertheless surprising
that industry were so heavily involved in this project. For example, of
the roughly 100 comments since January 2010 on The Synaptic
Leap website, around 60 came from readers not involved in the                                This stimu
kernel project at Sydney, and of those approximately 42 came
from industry, 16 from academia. Besides the input described above
to the resolution experiments, a different company contributed samples
of PZQ enantiomers isolated by chromatography for analytical
purposes, and another company is currently determining the phase
diagram of PZQamine. Why would companies choose to be involved,
particularly in a project in neglected tropical diseases where there is
little profit margin and no new intellectual property available? One can     Mat Todd
appeal to human nature — we see a problem we can help solve, and
we find it impossible to resist stepping in, p

                                                                                        29

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Woolcock Institute 20 Mar 2012

  • 1. The broadest problem in science: Our publishing system Alex.Holcombe@sydney.edu.au School of Psychology http://www.slideshare.net/holcombea/ @ceptional 1
  • 2. Inefficient Opacity, Sluggishness, Redundancy, Redundancy, & Redundancy! from Kravitz & Baker (2011) 2
  • 3. Incomplete The File-Drawer Problem •Little career incentive to publish a non-replication or a replication •Very difficult to publish a non- unpublished replication or replication results •Most journals only publish files papers that “make a novel contribution” •Reviewers/editors tend to hold non-replicating manuscript to http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickperez/2569423078 t. magnum higher standard than original. •Bem example 3
  • 4. Incomplete The File-Drawer Problem Tower of unpublished Corollary 4: The greater the results flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes in files a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true. Flexibility increases the potential for transforming what would be “negative” results into “positive” t most results. ha oan nidis t ree with I hile we ag .” http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickperez/2569423078 t. lse.. m ary, w are famagnum Corollary 6: The hotter a scientific field (with more “I n sum findings scientific teams involved), the less likely the research rch resea findings are to be true. 4
  • 5. Barriers to publishing replications and failed- replications • No glory in publishing a replication • Few journals publish replications • usually uphill battle even with those that do • The wrath of the original researcher 5
  • 6. File-drawer fixes • Journals that don’t reject replications for being uninteresting or unimportant ◦ • ✔ • Pre-registration of study designs and analysis methods ◦ • ◦ • Brief reporting of replications ◦ ✔ ◦ 6
  • 8. Pashler, Spellman, Holcombe& Kang (2011) DETAILS page: http://psychfiledrawer.org/replication.php?attempt=MTU%3D 8
  • 10. File-drawer fixes • Journals that don’t reject replications for being uninteresting or unimportant ◦ • ✔ • Pre-registration of study designs and analysis methods ◦ • ◦ • Brief reporting of replications ◦ ✔ ◦ 10
  • 11. More efficient, more complete ROIM- peer Review of Intro & Methods 1. Authors plan a replication study 2. They submit an introduction and methods section 3. It is sent to reviewers, including the targeted author 4. The editor decides whether to accept/reject, based on: 1. Reviewer comments regarding the proposed protocol 2. Importance of the study, judged by argument in the introduction, number of citations of original, reviewer comments • • ✔ 5. The Intro, Method and analysis plan, and reviewer comments are posted on the journal website 6. When the results come in, the authors write a conventional results and discussion section and that together with the raw data are posted, yielding the complete publication 1. some sort of minimal peer review needed for that. What exactly? 11
  • 12. ROIM- peer Review of Intro & Methods • Original author sort-of signed off on it, so can’t complain / hate the replication authors as much. • Good way to start for a new PhD project, anyone planning to build on some already-published results • Reduce the incentive to publish flashy, headline- grabbing but unreliable studies? • • ✔ 12
  • 13. Incomplete post-publication peer review When a new paper appears, readers often spot logical flaws, experimental weaknesses, questionable assumptions or alternative interpretations. Yet individual criticisms may not be considered important enough to warrant publication. Even major criticisms are unlikely to appear until months or years later, and are often overlooked in the haystacks of the literature. 13
  • 14. post-publication peer review The people who DON’T notice the problems with a paper cite it, the people who DO, don’t. So people not in the area never find out how flawed a paper is. The article in question was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and at the time of writing has had 270 citations. I did a spot check of fifty of those citing articles to see if any had noted problems with the paper: only one of them did so. The others repeated the authors’ conclusions http://deevybee.blogspot.com.au/ 2012/03/time-for-neuroimaging-to- clean-up-its.html 14
  • 15. post-publication peer review Absence of it means we don’t have many indicators of quality of individual articles. Reinforces reliance on poor measures like journal impact factor. 15
  • 16. I have a dream.. our papers will be judged not by the impact factor of their journal, but by the quality of their content 16
  • 17. I have a dream that one day, our papers will be judged not by the impact factor of their journal, but by the quality of their content from Peter Binfield’s talk Impact Factor announced (4.3) 17
  • 18. ROIM- peer Review of Intro & Methods • Original author sort-of signed off on it, so can’t complain / hate the replication authors as much. • Good way to start for a new PhD project, anyone planning to build on some already-published results • Reduce the incentive to publish flashy, headline-grabbing but unreliable studies? • • ✔ • How to incorporate post-publication commentary? 18
  • 19. ROIM- peer Review of Intro & Methods • What publisher to publish it? 19
  • 20. Scientist meets publisher: the video Academic knowledge is boxed in by expensive journals. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMIY_4t-DR0 20
  • 21. • Free Why Open Access? • Full-text • Online access •Academia marginalising itself The countries we work with can’t •More impact! afford journals; they’re already paying an arm and a leg for textbooks -Sir John Daniel •We do our research to benefit anyone interested, not some exclusive club The academic community is only hurting itself, and •Many scholars, doctors, its long term public patients, engineers, support, by keeping its policymakers (and esp. in poor knowledge behind high countries/small universities) subscription walls - Andrew Carr can’t get access 21
  • 22. OA HULK WANTS TO KNOW WHO TO OCCUPY! ELSEVIER!? ACS!? HARPERCOLLINS!? YOU NAME IT, OA HULK WILL OCCUPY AND SMASH! Open Access “Hulk” 22
  • 23. Institutional Subscription Cost, 2012 Experimental Brain Research $13,670 Journal of Radioanalytic and Nuclear Chemistry $19,826 Journal of Mathematical Sciences $17,880 Journal of Materials Science $16,699 $3983 USD per article for Elsevier $1350 USD per article for PLoS ONE Claudio Aspesi at http://poynder.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/open-access-brick-by-brick.html 23
  • 24. $3983 USD per article for Elsevier $1350 USD per article for PLoS ONE Claudio Aspesi at http://poynder.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/open-access-brick-by-brick.html 24
  • 25. Ryan Orr http://www.flickr.com/photos/ryan_orr/615470501 •Not all closed-access publishers profiteer •The real enemy is us! 25
  • 26. How to help •Deposit your manuscripts in the university repository (http://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/ •Even with closed journals, you often have the right to deposit your final version (e.g. Word document before typeset by publisher) •Best for university and its funders if research outputs open access; indeed it’s mandated by: •NIH, Wellcome Trust Let me know i •Princeton, Harvard •Queensland University of Technology •Support open-access publishing models •PLoS, BioMed Central, eLife •I don’t recommend paying for open-access “choice” in closed corporate-published journals •Support innovations that address problems of inefficiency and incompleteness 26
  • 27. Comprehensive solution? Open Science •As data comes in, uploaded automatically to web •Electronic lab notebook •Papers written via open collaborative documents on the web 27
  • 29. Industry suffers less from such metrics, but it is nevertheless surprising that industry were so heavily involved in this project. For example, of the roughly 100 comments since January 2010 on The Synaptic Leap website, around 60 came from readers not involved in the This stimu kernel project at Sydney, and of those approximately 42 came from industry, 16 from academia. Besides the input described above to the resolution experiments, a different company contributed samples of PZQ enantiomers isolated by chromatography for analytical purposes, and another company is currently determining the phase diagram of PZQamine. Why would companies choose to be involved, particularly in a project in neglected tropical diseases where there is little profit margin and no new intellectual property available? One can Mat Todd appeal to human nature — we see a problem we can help solve, and we find it impossible to resist stepping in, p 29