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Winning in the New Innovation-Based Global Economy: Is Boosting the Supply Side Enough? Presentation at the 2006 Accelerating Innovation Conference Washington, DC Dr. Robert Atkinson President Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation ,[object Object]
Waves of Innovation Drive Cycles of Growth & Change Robert D. Atkinson The Past and Future of America’s Economy: Long Waves of Innovation that Power Cycles of Growth (Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2005)
Technology Transformations  and Growth 1945-58  59-74  74-93  94-2000  2001-?-  ??   Time Old Technology System New Technology System Takeoff  Installation  Slowdown  Takeoff  Installation  Slowdown
Periods in American Economic History ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Transformations Drive Growth Annual Change in Labor Productivity Growth
IT is the Major Engine of Growth Today Sources of Total Factor Productivity Growth Source: Jorgenson,  Information Technology and the American Growth Resurgence
Transformations Also Drive Regional Restructuring
R&D Performed Overseas by Majority-Owned Foreign Affiliates of U.S. Companies  (in $millions) *2000 **2001; Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Industry R&D as a Share of GDP
Change in R&D/GDP Ratio, 1991-2003 Source: OECD
U.S. Trade Balance  in High-Tech Products Source: U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Statistics, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services.
Chinese Trade by  Technological Intensity   Source: Andrew Wyckoff, OECD.
Why Does Innovation and Competitiveness Matter? Economic growth comes from either boosting productivity in all sectors or shifting to higher-value added sectors. In the twenty-first-century global economy, nations can no longer be indifferent to the industrial and value added mix of their economy.
Which Future For America?
Renewal Through Innovation
Relative Decline?
So, What Should We Do? ,[object Object],[object Object]
So, What Should We Do? Boost the Supply of Innovation Production  Factors (e.g., scientists,  basic research) Boost the demand from companies for innovating in the United States. We Need to Act Now
Why Is So Much of the Policy Focus on Supply-Side Factors? ,[object Object],[object Object]
While Some Companies Compete Internationally, All Countries Do ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Outlines of a Comprehensive Innovation and Competitiveness Strategy ,[object Object],[object Object]
U.S. Rank in R&D Tax Credit Generosity Has Fallen Significantly
Outlines of a Comprehensive Innovation and Competitiveness Strategy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]

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Winning in the New Innovation-Based Global Economy: Is Boosting the Supply Side Enough?

  • 1. Winning in the New Innovation-Based Global Economy: Is Boosting the Supply Side Enough? Presentation at the 2006 Accelerating Innovation Conference Washington, DC Dr. Robert Atkinson President Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
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  • 3. Waves of Innovation Drive Cycles of Growth & Change Robert D. Atkinson The Past and Future of America’s Economy: Long Waves of Innovation that Power Cycles of Growth (Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2005)
  • 4. Technology Transformations and Growth 1945-58 59-74 74-93 94-2000 2001-?- ?? Time Old Technology System New Technology System Takeoff Installation Slowdown Takeoff Installation Slowdown
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  • 6. Transformations Drive Growth Annual Change in Labor Productivity Growth
  • 7. IT is the Major Engine of Growth Today Sources of Total Factor Productivity Growth Source: Jorgenson, Information Technology and the American Growth Resurgence
  • 8. Transformations Also Drive Regional Restructuring
  • 9. R&D Performed Overseas by Majority-Owned Foreign Affiliates of U.S. Companies (in $millions) *2000 **2001; Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 10. Industry R&D as a Share of GDP
  • 11. Change in R&D/GDP Ratio, 1991-2003 Source: OECD
  • 12. U.S. Trade Balance in High-Tech Products Source: U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Statistics, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services.
  • 13. Chinese Trade by Technological Intensity Source: Andrew Wyckoff, OECD.
  • 14. Why Does Innovation and Competitiveness Matter? Economic growth comes from either boosting productivity in all sectors or shifting to higher-value added sectors. In the twenty-first-century global economy, nations can no longer be indifferent to the industrial and value added mix of their economy.
  • 15. Which Future For America?
  • 18.
  • 19. So, What Should We Do? Boost the Supply of Innovation Production Factors (e.g., scientists, basic research) Boost the demand from companies for innovating in the United States. We Need to Act Now
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  • 21.
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  • 23. U.S. Rank in R&D Tax Credit Generosity Has Fallen Significantly
  • 24.
  • 25.