- Productivity growth has been declining since the 1960s and is now near historic lows.
- Three waves have contributed to the decline in productivity growth since the 2000s: the waning of a mid-1990s productivity boom, financial crisis aftereffects like weak demand and uncertainty, and slowing capital intensity and total factor productivity growth in some countries.
- Unlocking demand growth and promoting digital diffusion could help boost annual labor productivity growth above 2% in Western countries through both digital and non-digital opportunities.
The Future of Productivity_Dan Andrews_Chiara Criscuolo_Productivity Summit_6...Structuralpolicyanalysis
"The Future of Productivity" by Dan Andrews and Chiara Criscuolo, Global Dialogue on the Future of Productivity: Towards an OECD Productivity Network, 6-7 July 2015, Mexico.
Productivity Summit_6-7 July 2015_Mexico
The Future of Productivity_Dan Andrews_Chiara Criscuolo_Productivity Summit_6...Structuralpolicyanalysis
"The Future of Productivity" by Dan Andrews and Chiara Criscuolo, Global Dialogue on the Future of Productivity: Towards an OECD Productivity Network, 6-7 July 2015, Mexico.
Productivity Summit_6-7 July 2015_Mexico
Peterson Institute for International Economics (OECD Research Director Catherine Mann, July 9, 2015); BIS Annual Report (BIS Executive Claudio Borio, June 28, 2015) - Productivity (economics research)
Productivity and public sector performance - Christian Kastrop, OECD SecretariatOECD Governance
Presentation by Christian Kastrop, OECD Secretariat, at the 11th annual meeting of the OECD Senior Budget Officials Performance and Results network, Paris, 26-27 November 2015.
Presentation by Christian Kastrop on 'Productivity and Public Sector Performa...OECD Governance
This presentation by Christian Kastrop, Director, Policy Studies Branch, Economics Department, OECD, was made at the joint meeting of the Senior Budget Official Performance and Results Network and the Public Employment and Management Expert meeting on 26 November 2015. For further information, please see http://www.oecd.org/gov/pem/.
SMEs as key actors for economic resilience, productivity and inclusiveness - ...OECD CFE
Sandrine Kergroach, Senior Economist, SME and Entrepreneurship Division, OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities at the OECD Conference on SMEs and the Urban Fabric, 15-16 April 2019, OECD Trento Centre, Italy.
Full event info: https://oe.cd/SMEs-Cities
HLEG thematic workshop on measuring economic, social and environmental resili...StatsCommunications
HLEG thematic workshop on Measuring economic, social and environmental resilience, 25-26 November 2015, Rome, Italy, More information at: http://oe.cd/StrategicForum2015
"Productivity: Why it matters", by Catherine L. Mann, OECD Chief Economist and G20 Deputy, Global Dialogue on the Future of Productivity,: Towards an OECD productivity Network, 6-7 July 2015, Mexico.
As current growth rates reach a new low, competition for the future is on the...SimCorp
As growth rates came to a standstill in 2015, we took stock of expectations for the future. Surveying firms worldwide, we discovered them to be optimistic about long-term prospects, and found the pursuit of future profits gathering pace.
This paper discusses the Irish economy’s recent growth performance and considers its medium-and-long-term prospects for growth. A range of policy reforms to increase the economy’s long-run potential output are identified. The best way to sustain productivity growth is to increase investment in education and skills, particularly early years learning; to increase investment in the production, diffusion and use of new ideas, and to increase investment in productivity enhancing infrastructure.
Expert workshop on the creation and uses of combined environmental and economic performance datasets at the micro-level - 10-11 July 2018 - OECD, Paris
Expert workshop on the creation and uses of combined environmental and economic performance datasets at the micro-level - 10-11 July 2018 - OECD, Paris
Expert workshop on the creation and uses of combined environmental and economic performance datasets at the micro-level - 10-11 July 2018 - OECD, Paris
Expert workshop on the creation and uses of combined environmental and economic performance datasets at the micro-level - 10-11 July 2018 - OECD, Paris
Expert workshop on the creation and uses of combined environmental and economic performance datasets at the micro-level - 10-11 July 2018 - OECD, Paris
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
NO1 Uk Black Magic Specialist Expert In Sahiwal, Okara, Hafizabad, Mandi Bah...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
#vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore#blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #blackmagicforlove #blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #Amilbabainuk #amilbabainspain #amilbabaindubai #Amilbabainnorway #amilbabainkrachi #amilbabainlahore #amilbabaingujranwalan #amilbabainislamabad
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdf
Jaana Remes
1. SOLVING THE PRODUCTIVITY
PUZZLE: THE ROLE OF
DEMAND AND DIGITAL
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited
JAANA REMES
June 28, 2018
2. McKinsey & Company | 1
Focus of the
study
Productivity growth has been declining since the 1960s and
today stands near historic lows
Trend line of labor productivity growth, total economy
% year-over-year
NOTE: Productivity defined as GDP per hour worked. Calculated using Hodrick Prescott filter. Drawn from similar analysis in Martin Neil Baily and Nicholas Montalbano, “Why is productivity
growth so slow? Possible explanations and policy responses,” Brookings Institution, September 2016
SOURCE: Bergeaud, A., Cette, G. and Lecat, R. (2016): "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and
Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420–444.; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
1 Simple average across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, UK.
2020
7
1
6
-1
5
4
2
3
-2
40801870 5090 2010 90 20007060 10301900 80
0
Europe1 USA
Great
Depression
Great
Recession
WWI WWII
3. McKinsey & Company | 2
We find patterns of a productivity-
weak, job-rich recovery with too
few accelerating sectors
4. McKinsey & Company | 3
In many countries, exceptionally low productivity growth post-recession
reflects slowing value-added growth despite faster growth in hours-worked
Compound annual growth rate, %
Germany
Labor productivity Value-added Hours-worked
SOURCE: The Conference Board (May 2017 release); McKinsey Global Institute analysis
3210 4-1
2010-20161985-2005
1 4320-1 4-1 30 1 2
Sweden
United Kingdom
France
United States
Italy
Spain
Average1
1 Weighted average using the 2016 share of real PPP GDP.
NOTE: Ordering based on fastest to slowest productivity growth in the 2010-2016 period
5. McKinsey & Company | 4
Shifts in aggregate productivity growth are the result of individual sectors
accelerating and decelerating; today we have too few jumping sectors
SOURCE: EU KLEMS; BLS; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
(1) sector is classified as "jumping" in year Y if its compounded annual growth rate of productivity for years Y-3 through Y is at least 3 pp higher than it was
for years 1995 to 2014 as a whole.
Time periods with top two and bottom two number of jumping sectorsUnited States example
4
0
1212
23
15
8
23
31
42
50
19
8
1515
19
15
031998 012000 0299 09
Ø 18
20140806 1310 1207 110504
Jumping
sectors1;
Share of
total; Total
sectors = 26
21 21 16 14 12 14 29 13 5 14 17 1124 18 8 0 4
Share of
value-
added2
% of total
nominal VA
6. McKinsey & Company | 5
-1.5
-1.2
-0.1 0.2
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-1.2
0.5
0.3
-0.5
-1.2-2.3
-0.5
0.0
0.5
0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.2
-0.9
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.8
0.0
-0.21.4
Contribution to the decline in labor productivity growth, 2010–14 vs. 2000–04, Percentage
points1
Slow productivity growth was accompanied by a decline in capital intensity growth, as
well as declining total factor productivity growth in some countries
1 Analysis based on the Solow growth accounting framework. We have also calculated the contribution from productivity growth of each sector (a “within” effect, which weights the contribution of
a sector’s labor productivity growth by its share of nominal GDP) and the impact of labor movements across sectors with different productivity levels (a “mix” effect). 2 EU KLEMS data on TFP
presents a relevant discrepancy with other data sources such as Conference Board or Penn World Tables. Hence, we take the average TFP of the three databases and calculate L quality as
a residual 3 In Italy, the period analyzed is 2010-2013 instead of 2010-2014 due to data limitations 4 Data for US is only for the private business sector.
SOURCE: EU KLEMS (2016 release); BLS Multifactor Productivity database (2016 release); McKinsey Global Institute analysis
1.5
1.0
2.3
-0.2
2.9
0.9
1.7
0.9
3.6
-0.2
0.0
1.4
0.0
0.6
Increases productivity growthDecreases productivity growth
Labor productivity
growth,
2000–04 (%)
NOTE: Ordering of countries based on fastest to slowest productivity growth in 2010–14. Numbers may not sum due to rounding
Change in capital
intensity growth
Change in labor
quality growth
Change in sector
mix shift
2010–14 (%)
2 3
Change in total
factor produ-
ctivity growth
4
7. McKinsey & Company | 6
Three waves collided to drag
down productivity growth
8. McKinsey & Company | 7
Three waves explain these patterns and the low productivity growth of
today
Contribution to the decline in productivity growth
from 2010-14 vs 2000-04, Percentage points
(Average across France, Germany, Sweden ,UK
and US)
0.5
2.4
-0.2
-0.9
-0.8
2000-04 productivity growth
2010-14 productivity growth
Wave 1: Waning of a mid-1990s
productivity boom
Wave 2: Financial crisis aftereffects
including weak demand and uncertainty
Residual1
SOURCE: EU KLEMS (2016 release), BLS Multifactor Productivity database (2016 release), McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Wave 2
Sectors experiencing a boom/bust (finance, real estate, construction)
Excess capacity, slow demand recovery, uncertainty
Financial crisis-related hours contraction and expansion
First ICT revolution
Restructuring and offshoring
Wave 1
1 Includes impact of labor movement across sectors (‘mix effect”) and sectors not considered in our analysis. May include some of the impact from
transition costs of digital.
Wave 3: Digital disruption ???
9. McKinsey & Company | 8
Percentage point contribution to the decline in productivity growth from 2010-14 vs. 2000-04
-0.8
-0.1
-0.2
-1.1
-0.4
-2.0
-0.3
-0.9
-1.1
-0.9
-1.2
-1.3
The impact of each wave varies across countries
First ICT revolution
Restructuring and offshoring
-0.5
-2.5
-0.7
-3.8
-1.9
-2.0
Financial crisis
aftereffects
Mfg., Retail, Utilities,
Finance, Real estate,
Construction
Waning of a mid-1990s
productivity boom
Manufacturing, ICT, Retail,
Utilities Residual1
Total change in
productivity growth
Average
-0.5
-0.9
0.7
0
-0.2
-0.1
Other drag on productivity growth
Other support on productivity growth
0.1
0.2
-0.04
-0.1
0.01
-0.4
Impact of labor
movement across
sectors
(“mix effect”)
SOURCE: EU KLEMS (2016 release), BLS Multifactor Productivity database (2016 release), McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Financial crisis-related hours contraction & expansion
Excess capacity, slow demand recovery, uncertainty
Sectors experiencing a boom / bust (finance, real estate, construction)
1 Includes impact of sectors not considered in our analysis NOTE: US data includes only private business sector
10. McKinsey & Company | 9
United States and Western Europe, Productivity growth potential, Percentage points
Productivity growth
potential (2015-2025)
Non-digital opportunitiesDigital opportunities
~1.2+
2.0+~0.8+
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Unlocking demand growth and promoting digital diffusion may deliver annual
labor productivity growth above 2 percent
NOTE: Our estimate for the productivity growth potential builds on extensive past MGI research on sector opportunities for improving productivity through
technologies that are already implemented today or have a clear path to deployment at scale by 2025. These include benefits from digitization (e.g., Big
Data, Internet of Things, automation, AI) as well as non-digital opportunities such as mix shifts in products and channels, continued consolidation, etc.
12. 11McKinsey & Company
Our approach focuses on activities and the capabilities of
currently demonstrated technologies
SOURCE: Expert interviews; McKinsey analysis
Occupations
Retail
salespeople
Social1
Linguistic2
Cognitive3
Sensory perception4
Physical5▪ ...
▪ …
▪ …
~800 occupations
Teachers
Health practitioners
Food and beverage
service workers
Activities
Greet customers
▪ ...
▪ …
▪ …
Process sales and
transactions
~2,000 activities assessed
across all occupations
Clean and maintain work
areas
Demonstrate product
features
Answer questions about
products and services
?
Capabilities
Based on currently
demonstrated technology
capabilities as of 2016
13. 12McKinsey & Company
Less than 10% of jobs can be fully automated, but nearly all jobs will
be impacted
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
~50%
of current work
activities could
be automated
of jobs involve
tasks that are
>90% automatable
10%
But less than
14. 13McKinsey & Company
There are jobs which are more and less automatable
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute Global Automation Impact Model; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
% of automatable activities
Example occupations
>0%>10%
Psychiatrists Legislators
>20%>30%>40%
Fashion designers Chief executives
>50%>60%
Bus drivers Nursing assistants Web developers
>70%>80%
Stock clerks Travel agents Dental lab technicians
Sewing machine operators Assembly-line workers
>90%100%
~60%
~30%
of occupations
have
of tasks
automatable
15. 14McKinsey & Company
The automation potential of work activities varies by sector – US example
1 We define automation potential by the work activities that can be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technology
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute Global Automation Impact Model; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
FTE weighted percent of technically automatable activities by industry, Percent
31
36
37
38
39
40
40
41
43
44
44
44
47
48
53
53
55
58
64Manufacturing
Accommodation/food services
Transportation/warehousing
Information
Administrative/support/waste management
Management of companies/enterprises
Educational services
Finance/insurance
Arts/entertainment/recreation
Utilities
Construction
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Other services
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Mining
Real estate/rental and leasing
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
Health care/social assistance
~50%
of work
activities
have the
potential to
be
automated
16. 15McKinsey & Company
45 48 56
78
55 52 44
22
High school or
some experience
Less than
high school
Some post-
secondary
education
Bachelor and
graduate degree
Automatable
Non-automatable
SOURCE: BLS 2014; O*Net; Global Automation Impact Model; McKinsey analysis
Automation affects occupations with lower educational requirements
disproportionately
Example
occupations
▪ Logging
equipment
operators
▪ Fast food
cooks
▪ Stock clerks
▪ Travel
agents
▪ Some
medical
technicians
▪ Lawyer
▪ Doctors
▪ Teacher
▪ Statisticians
▪ Chief
executives
▪ Nursing
assistants
▪ Web
developers
▪ Electricians
▪ Legal
secretaries
Technical automation potential of work activities by job zone in the US, %
18. 17McKinsey & Company
Throughout history, large scale sector employment declines have
been countered by growth of new sectors that have absorbed workers
0.3
2.2
5.9
0.2
0.7
4.9
0.8
9.9
5.0
12.8
6.1
9.3
Employment share change, 1850–2015
Percentage points
Trade (retail and
wholesale)
Construction
Transportation
Agriculture, -55.9
Manufacturing, -3.6
Household work, +2.71
Mining, -1.3
Professional services
Utilities
Business and repair services
Telecommunications
Health care
Entertainment
Education
Government
Financial services
60
5
20
80
70
40
30
25
35
50
10
95
15
85
55
75
45
90
100
65
0
1850 2000
Share of total employment by sector in the United States, 1850–2015
% of jobs
1900 201550
1 Increase from 1850 to 1860 in employment share of household work primarily due to changes in how unpaid labor (slavery) was tracked.
SOURCE: IPUMS USA 2017; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
19. McKinsey & Company | 18SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Economic
growth
DemandSupply
Investment leakages due to
▪ Weak consumption
▪ Aging
▪ Rising returns on investment
with higher profit
concentration
Consumption leakages due to
▪ Weak productivity growth and
slowing workforce growth
▪ A partial diverging of real
wages from productivity due
to declining labor share and
rising house / land prices
▪ Rising inequality impacting
consumption
Long-term demand leakages could act as a drag on productivity and job
growth and may be further amplified by digital
Digital
transition may
amplify
leakages
20. 19McKinsey & Company
Strengthen
demand
by growing
purchasing
power,
investment, and
entrepreneurship
Invest in
human
capital
through
education,
training and life-
long learning
Reinvigorate
labor market
dynamism
by enabling more
diverse forms of
work and rethinking
transition support
for all workers
Accelerate
digital
diffusion
from
government to
SMEs
Some priorities to shape the future