VIDEO: https://bit.ly/2fr5MN8 TRANSCRIPT: https://bit.ly/2YLS0oE Indonesia contains the world’s largest Muslim population. Yet insufficient attention has been paid to how it sees the threat of radical Islam, a subject that Wibawanto Nugroho has studied deeply. He has served in the Indonesian government in several capacities. Presently, he is a PhD candidate at the University of Exeter, with a dissertation on the subject of Understanding Islamist Radical Terrorism. He is supervised by Dr. Omar Ashour and Dr. Jonathan Githens-Mazer of the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter. His research included directly interviewing some 40 terrorists, as well as relevant policy makers. He has worked as the Expert Staff, Strategist and Senior Policy Analyst with the Indonesian Army; Ministry of Defense; the Chairman of the Defense, Foreign Affairs, Intelligence and Information Committee of Indonesian Parliament; and the Indonesian Coordinating Ministry of Political, Legal and Security Affairs. From 2013 – 2014 he also worked as a Senior Adviser for Sanitas International, a global political consulting firm. While working on his PhD (2014 – 2017) with the University of Exeter, he was also designated as an alumni fellow/SME with NDU. He holds degrees from the University of Bradford, the U.S. National Defense University (NDU), and the George Mason University School of Public and Government. He has just been invited to give a speech at Capstone Course of the Indonesian National Resilience Agency (Lemhanas RI), on the topic of national ideology, strategy, and development, this November. His thesis at National Defense University, titled “Indonesian Armed Forces’ Roles, Strategies and Capabilities in Countering Terrorism within a Changing National Security: Looking Ahead 2007 – 2017” earned an Honors award from the university. He was also a principal speaker representing the Republic of Indonesia at the 2008 U.S. Army TRADOC-hosted global symposium on the Future Joint Operating Environment toward 2025. In 2011 he also appeared as a principal speaker along with the head of Indonesian BNPT (National Counter Terrorism Agency) in the BNPT-hosted international symposium on deradicalization in Makassar, Indonesia. Wibawanto Nugroho is a Fulbright scholar and the recipient of Phi Beta Delta Honor Society for International Scholars. For more on Indonesia, see James Clad’s Westminster talk, The Islamic State Attacks Indonesia – And its ‘Middle Way’, Lieutenant General Agus Widjojo’s Westminster talk, How to Support Democracy: The Case of Indonesia, and Jeff Moore’s Westminster talk, the Evolution in Islamic Insurgency in Asia.

1. Wibawanto Nugroho
Ph.D. Candidate
The Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies
College of Social Sciences and International Studies
University of Exeter, United Kingdom
(International Counter Terrorism Fellow Class of 2007 from Republic of Indonesia)
Understanding the Existence and Latent Threat of Islamist
Terrorism Through A Multidimensional Analysis:
The Case of Republic of Indonesia

2. Watch on YouTube
An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
Nugroho
Understanding Islamist Radical Terrorism
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3. What factors drove people with the association to Jemaah
Islamiya (JI) and radical-Islamist movements to commit and
become involved in terrorist attacks? and why and how might
such factors/elements influence these people to commit terrorist
attacks in the future?
An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
Nugroho
Thesis Questions
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4. An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
Nugroho
How To Prove This Thesis: The Methodology
Cluster Sample (n=77) Status Data Collection Method Data Analysis Method Chapter
1 n=22 Convicted Islamist
terrorists serving in the
prison (6 of them have
recently been released).
Documentation-archival
evidence (qualitative):
public documentation-
archival evidence including
legal court cases and
published media
documents.
Interpretivism
(qualitative):
the discovering
patterns analysis and
the content analysis.
4.1.a
4.1.b
2 n=15 Key state/security
officials, and experts in
the field ).
Survey (qualitative):
semi-structured
questionnaires/interviews
with open-ended questions.
Interpretivism
(qualitative):
the discourse
analysis.
4.1.c
3 n=40 Convicted Islamist
terrorists.
Survey (quantitative):
structured
questionnaires/interviews
with closes-ended
questions.
Multivariate
Statistical Analyses
(quantitative):
the chi-square test;
the logistic
regression; and the
proportional test.
4.2
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5. Islamist terrorism in Indonesia (Y) is the Islamist salafi ideology
and behavior that aims to establish the Islamic (Shari’a) law and
the Indonesian Islamist salafi state through violent, non-gradual
ways, by attacking civilians in order to send their messages to the
audience and for the wider achievement of their political goal. The
activity has been taking place since 1945 until today.
The determining factors of Islamist terrorism in Indonesia are the
combination of economic grievances (X1), social grievances (X2),
political grievances (X3), social network (X4), radical ideology
(X5), state repression (X6), and government incentives (X7).
An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
Nugroho
Thesis Statement
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6. An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
Nugroho
4 Major Trends of Islamism in Indonesia
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7. 1945 – 1965: The Darul Islam/DI
1992 – 2002: Structural JI
2002 – 2011: Non-Structural JI
2008 – 2010: The Jamaah Anshorut Tauhid/JAT
2014: The emerging of ISIS-associated cells in 2014
2016: The neo-JI in 2016
An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
Nugroho
The Transformation of Violent Islamist Salafi Movement Over Decades
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8. An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
Nugroho
The Social Network
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9. An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
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The Cyber Engagement
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10. Key Words in Jihadists’ Mind
Togut/Taghut
Violent Jihad
The Establishment of
Islamist Salafi State
Against Four State Pillars
(Pancasila, UUD 45, NKRI,
Bhinneka Tunggal Ika)
The Enemy of Islam
(The Western & Jewish,
Judaism, and Christianity)
An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
Nugroho
Takfir
The Implementation of
Islamic Shari’a Law
Da’wah
Al-Khilafah al-Islamiyah
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11. An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
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The General Pattern
The event #6 and #7 only play their role to exacerbate the continuous impacts on #8 of the
event #1 - #5. On their own the event #6 and #7 will not cause the event #8.
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12. An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
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Measuring the Impact of Deradicalization Efforts
The statistical findings in the chapter 4.2. indicates that the
Indonesian deradicalization efforts have not significantly
altered the end-state/ultimate intention in the mind of these
affected individuals.
This condition is quite concerning, because once any windows
of opportunity to make “their come-back” at the domestic and
at the global level are available, they could be potentially
exposed to the old violent ideology and/or behaviour Strictly
speaking, this particular phenomenon requires more preventive
measures of counterterrorism efforts other than the
deradicalization itself.
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13. An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
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Shifting Away From Extremism Toward Moderation
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14. By looking at this current pattern, it could be predicted that
Indonesia herself is still likely to become both the producer and
battlefield of global Islamist terrorism in the near future.
Therefore, the Indonesian national counterterrorism policy and
strategy need to be updated and well integrated with the
Indonesian national policy and grand strategy in order to better
address the existence and latent threat of Islamist terrorism in
the archipelago.
An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
Nugroho
Policy Implications
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15. Improving economic, social and political conditions.
Effectively dealing with social networks as an entry point of
radical ideology.
Effectively curbing the influencing power of radical ideology.
Continuously improving the quality and quantity of
government incentives (and state repression).
An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
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Key Policy Focus for the Future
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16. 2002 – 2006 (from the sanctuary doctrine to the
accommodation doctrine)
2006 – 2010 (from the accommodation doctrine to the
suppression and preventive doctrine)
2010 – 2017 (the improvement of suppression and
preventive doctrine under BNPT)
An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
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3 Phases of Indonesian CT Policy (2002 – 2017)
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17. An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
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The Whole-of-Government Approach
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18. An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
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Looking Ahead: 2017 Beyond
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19. An Intellectual Property of Wibawanto
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Thank You, Questions and Answers
Who Thinks Win, Who Dares Win.
The Winning Nation is the Thinking and Daring One.
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