1. Essay by Louise Capion ESPD High Level Course - Module I 25.09.2008
Is Europe safe from terrorism?
Introduction
The preferred answer to the above question would be a 'yes'. However, as this essay will show the
answer is neither that simple nor that unambiguous. In December 2003 the European Security
Strategyl (ESS) listed terrorism as one of the five key threats to the Union. At the time terrorism
was not new to Europe, but the events of 11. September 2001, as well as the post cold war era of
globalisation had altered the world context and the way in which Europe would address
transnational terrorism.2 In order to answer the above question the essay will explore how Europe
tackles the threats posed to it by terrorism and discuss if this is sufficient to keep Europe safe from
terrorism. To begin with let us have a look at where the threat is coming from.
The terrorism threat to the European Union
The terrorism perpetrated by al-Qa'ida and extremists inspired by al-Qa'ida has been singled out as
the main terrorist threat to the European Union.3 According to the ESS this kind of terrorism is
linked to violent religious extremism and is global in its scope.a As such al-Qa'ida has become the
advocate of a global conspiracy against the Muslim world. This ideology unites and at the same
time feeds on a wide range of well-known grievances that motivates al-Qa'ida's supporters and new
recruits.5 According to the ESS these grievances include the pressure of modernisation, cultural,
social and political crises and alienation of young people.6 For example al-Qa'ida claims that the
current impoverishment of many Muslim countries is caused by an alliance between "Zionists and
the Crusaders"T and un-Islamic Muslim govemments. The solution to this impoverishment is to
unite Muslims in the fight against United States and its allies and to overthrow un-Islamic Muslim
regimes to establish the pan-Islamic o'caliphate".8 But al-Qa'ida also strongly opposes democratic
principles, which they claim is a rival "religion" and therefore equivalent to apostasy, punishable by
death. The solution to this problem is to eradicate Western influences from the Muslim world. Al-
Qa'ida has therefore rejected the democratic elections in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Palestinian
Territories.
' "A S""u.. Europe in a Better world", European Security Strategy, Brussels, 12. December 2003, p. 3
2
Inspired by Juan Gabriel Tokattian's article: "Two models opposite terrorism", htttt://enelish.safe-democracy.org/home/trvo-
modåls-oppositc-terrorism.htrnl and European Security Strategy, Brussels 12. December 2003
i-Th" E**p*, Union Strategy for Combating Radicalisation and Recruitment to Terrorism", Brussels 24. November 2005
u
This essay will focus on this type of terrorism.
s
"A Secure Europe in a Better world", European Security Strategy, Brussels, 12- December 2003
u
ibid
7
MI5 Security Service, "Al Qaida's ideology"', http://r'r'r'vw.mi5.sov.uk/
t Seth G. Jonås & Martin C. Libicki, "How terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa'ida", The RAND Corporation, 2008

2. Essay by Louise Capion ESPD High Level Course - Module I 25.09.2008
In resent years Europe has become both a target and a base for al-Qa'ida's activities.e Al-Qa'ida's
organisational structure both includes a bottom-up and a top-down approach encouraging inde-
pendent action from low-level operatives as well as centrally issuing shategy and operatiorrs.to
Extremists affiliated or linked to al-Qa'ida have actively been involved in radicalising and
recruiting European Muslims and have provided a link to al-Qa'ida. In this way they have
facilitated and in some cases even planned terrorist attacks in Europe. Writings and speeches of
these extremists have been widely distributed and are easily accessible for example on the Intemet.
In addition to the threat from religiously motivated terrorism some European countries are also
targets and base for terrorists who are seeking narrower goals.
The Eur op e an Uni on C o unt e r -Te rr o r is m S tr at e gt
The causes of terrorism are both complex and multifaceted. The Europe Union therefore adopted a
holistic approach to the threat of terrorism, which allows the Union to use a variety of tools (both
civilian and military) within its own boundaries as well as outside them. The European Union
Counter-Terrorism Strategyll sets out four pillars with the objectives to 'oprevent new recruits to
terrorism; better protect potential targets; pursue and investigate members of existing networks and
improve the Unions ability to respond to and manage the consequences of terrorist attacks". As the
first line of defence will often be abroad, the Union's strategy to contribute to global security and to
building a safer world features horizontally across the four strands. In order to allow the Union to
address some of the "motivational and structural factors underpinning radicalisation"
12
it adopted
its strategy for combating radicalisation and recruitment to terrorism in 2005.13 This strategy
addresses these factors for example by targeting inequalities and discrimination, and by promoting
inter-cultural dialogue within the Union. Outside Europe the Union will promote good govemance,
democracy and economic prosperity through political dialogue and assistance programs.
All terrorist groups will eventually end - the question is how
Following an examination of 648 terrorist groups that existed from 1968 to2006, Jones & Libicki
found that the possibility of a political solution is inversely linked to the breadth of terrorist goals -
the narrower the goals, the more likely it is, that the terrorist group and the government may reach a
negotiated settlement.la Jones & Libicki conclude that there is little reason to expect a politically
negotiated settlement between al-Qa'ida and the governments in the Middle East, and the
establishment of "caliphate". Nor is it likely that al-Qa'ida will reach its goals through violence. Al-
Qa'ida is more likely to end its days defeated, even though Jones & Libicki conclude, that it usually
e
For example evidence suggests that al-Qa'ida or people inspired by its ideologies were involved in the London attacks in 2005. For
further reading see MI5 Security Service, "A1 Qaida and the UK', http://u'rvrv.mi5.gov.uk/
l0
Seth G. Jones & Martin C. Libicki, "How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa'ida", The RAND Corporation, 2008
" The European Union Counter-Terrorism Strategy, Brussels 30. June 2005
" ibid
"
*Th. European Union Strategy for Combating Radicalisation and Recruitment to Terrorism", Brussels 24. November 2005
'o S"th G. Jones & Martin C. Libicki, "How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa'ida", The RAND Corporation,2008

3. Essay by Louise Capion ESPD High Level Course - Module 1 25.09.2008
takes longer to defeat religious $oups. It also involves a wide range of policy instruments. They
suggest that policing and intelligence is central in a counter-terrorism strategy. This corresponds to
the Unions counter-terrorism strategy to pursue and investigate members of existing networks
across the borders and globally, in order to fend off terrorist attacks on Member States and their
citizens. Due to the organisational structure of al-Qa'ida and the fact that it is dynamic in nature, the
Union and its Member States will have to stay one step ahead of both the networks and individuals
who are inspired by al-Qa'ida. This is a formidable task that requires close cooperation and even
though the Union and its Member States have gathered important experience, so has al-Qa'ida.
Jones & Libicki assess that al-Qa'ida remains a strong and competent organisation. It is therefore
essential to address the root causes of terrorism. In order to do this the Union has a wide range of
strong political, economic, civilian and military tools at its disposal. At the same time the Union
cooperates and has partnerships with a large number of countries that experience different forms of
crises. However, this systemic gab between what Bishop calls "the haves and the have-nots"ls is not
that easy to close and is very complex in character. Furthermore it is essential to eliminate any safe-
havens from which terrorist groups can operate. All of the above will take time and perseverance.
Is Europe safe from terrorism?
It is still too early to answer this question with a yes. However, the European countries and the
European Union are working hard in a number of difi[erent ways to keep Europe safe from
terrorism.
t'Prof. Dr. Sven Bishop, "The European Security Strategy", Module 4; Main Characteristics of the ESS"