Four scenarios for the development of self-driving vehicles, with Sweden as a case study. The scenarios is the result of a research project where 40 experts from more than 20 organizations participated.
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Where will self-driving vehicles take us? Scenarios for the development of automated vehicles with Sweden as a case study
1. Future Scenarios for the development
of self driving vehicles in Sweden
Anna Pernestål Brenden, ITRL
Ida Kristoffersson, VTI
Lars-Göran Mattsson, ITRL
2. Thanks to
Bräcke Kommun Carvia Chalmers Drive Now Ericsson
ITRL Kairos Future NEVS Nobina Regeringskansliet
Scania
SEVS for
Autonomous Drive
Stockholm Stad Taxi Stockholm Trafikanalys
Trafikverket Uber Rise Viktoria Volvo VTI
KTH
Scania Sustainable
City Solutions
Drive Sweden
3. Policy and governance
• International competition between
regions for lead in SDV
development/deployment.
(Importance of laws and policys on industry
localization increases)
• Sweden is well know test bed – has
international focus.
• Increased hunt for new growth areas
(increased busines / economy policy focus)
• More ambitious susatinability goals
• Standardization for information / data
exchange in EU.
• Proactive economy/business policy (to
support development) on national and
EU level.
City life
• Urbanisation increases (including
regional areas).
• Region enlargement.
• Increased competition for street and
city space.
• Less parking places.
Trends in transport & mobility
• Public transport complemented by self-driving
feeder buses
• Private leasing of cars increases
• Automation to decrease costly labour hours
• Increased acceptance for use of policy
instruments within transport
• Focus on trafic safety
• Experimental development of new types of
vehicles.
• More vehicles become level 1 & 2 SDV
• Increased fossil fuel free propulsion
Demography & Life Style
• Search for smooth life in a
connected world.
• More diversified interpretation of
”quality time”.
• Flexible and boundless work life
• Social media’s influence on actors
and solutions increases
• Increased e-commerce
• Young people take driver’s licens
later (in urban regions), but elderly
drives more.
• People generally trust new
technology.
Business models
• A messy landscape of everyday services –
more/new actors.
• Focus shift from product to solution.
• ”MaaS” provides new business models.
• Profitable to be sustainable.
• Difficult to predict who will be the most
important actors in mobility industry.
Technology Development
• Technology development
continues at a high rate.
• 5G, GPS, reach tipping points.
• 100% of vehicles connected.
5. No shared
solutions
breakthrough
Ambitious and proactive urban
policy & planning
Same, same, but different
- Consumption as before, but
sustainable production
- Congestion fees and policies
- Small electric vehicles
- Advanced driver assistance systems
- Automated parking
- Parking shuttles
- Bus platooning
7. Shared
solutions
breakthrough
Ambitious and proactive urban
policy & planning
Sharing is the new black
- Integrated public/private mobility
services
- People trust public sector
- Standardizations
- Solutions optimized on society level
- Public sector owns data
- ”Big brother sees everything”
9. No shared
solutions
breakthrough
Ambitious but slow and careful
surban policy & planning
Follow the path
- Asia leads the development of SDV,
slower development in Europe
- Owning rather than sharing
- Autonomous rather than cooperative
systems
- Advanced driver assistance systemes
- Individual decisions based on digital
decision support
11. Shared
solutions
breakthrough
Ambitious but slow and careful
surban policy & planning
What you need is what you get
- Customer insight (based on data) is
key success factor
- Explosion of new tailored shared
mobility solutions
- Diversity
- Few large companies dominate
- Focus on cities
14. Thanks to
Bräcke Kommun Carvia Chalmers Drive Now Ericsson
ITRL Kairos Future NEVS Nobina Regeringskansliet
Scania
SEVS for
Autonomous Drive
Stockholm Stad Taxi Stockholm Trafikanalys
Trafikverket Uber Rise Viktoria Volvo VTI
KTH
Scania Sustainable
City Solutions
Drive Sweden