Here is my latest analysis of the agriculture and farming sector in Canada.

1. z
What’s next for
Farming in Canada
Paul Young CPA,CGA
November 26, 2020

2. z
Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information: paul.young@ca.ibm.com

3. z
Agenda
 Agriculture Equipment
 Commodity Prices
 Rural vs Urban Strategy
 Income / 2020
 Farm Income – 2016 and 2017
 ON and PQ vs Rest of Canada
 New Tax Policy and other Costs – Liberal Government of Canada
 Acreage value
 Size of Farms
 Food Prices
 2019 Election Issues
 2019 / Dairy Sector
 Subsidies
 Farming Crisis
 Reshaping Farming
 Carbon tax and Drying
 Fishing Farming
 Vertical Farming
 Expert Farming

4. z
Farming Summary
 Farmers have to deal with rain, bugs, sun, etc.
 Commodity prices impact a farmer ability to sell his product
 The liberals have come to office as such have imposed more tax and regulations on the
family farm - https://www.producer.com/2019/09/farmer-slams-carbon-taxs-grain-drying-cost/
 Canada has a supply management system that manages quota. Canada has open up dairy,
poultry, etc. to foreign imports via TPP, CETA and USMCA agreements.
 Farmers are looking for price support as part of the expansion of imports into Canada
 Farmers are struggling getting their goods to market - http://cafta.org/agri-food-
exports/canadas-agri-food-exports-2014/ or Trade wars - https://www.timescolonist.com/u-s-
china-trade-war-hurting-canada-s-largest-railway-says-cn-executive-1.23957432

5. z
AG Equipment Sales

6. z
Commodity Prices
Source - https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/markets/futures

7. z
z
Farm
Receipt -
2020

8. z
Farm Income – 2015 vs 2019
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190528/dq190528a-eng.htm
2019 Summary
2015 Summary
@JustinTrudeau and his policies have also hampered
the AG sector. Trudeau does not stand up for any jobs
unless it means a UN seat!
https://drumhelleronline.com/ag-news/carbon-tax-
continues-to-be-an-issue-for-farmers-in-canada

9. z
Expense to Receipts

10. z
z
Average Farm Income/ Canada
Source - https://www.statista.com/statistics/468483/average-farm-family-income-
in-canada/

11. z
Net Farm Income by Year - Canada

12. z
Small Business Tax Change / Farm and other Issues
Source - https://www.canadianpoultrymag.com/business-policy/farm-business/the-
evolution-of-tax-changes-for-the-canadian-farm-business-30601
• Ontario farmers struggle with changes to
labour laws and high hydro rates -
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-
pmn/canada-news-pmn/farmers-in-
southwestern-ontario-lament-high-hydro-
rates-increased-labour-costs
• Carbon Tax and Farming costs -
https://www.realagriculture.com/2018/01/will-
a-carbon-tax-negatively-impact-the-
competitiveness-of-canadian-farms/
• High fuel costs -
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fuel-
farming/farmers-worldwide-struggle-with-
rising-fuel-costs-idUSKCN1IJ0CR
• Crop Insurance - https://www.country-
guide.ca/2018/01/03/why-canadas-farmers-
need-better-risk-management-
programs/52294/
• Cost of Capital - https://www.fcc-
fac.ca/fcc/knowledge/ag-economist/farm-
assets-and-debt-report-2017-18-e.pdf

13. z
Acreage value
Source – Stats Canada

14. z
Acreage by Farm
Source - https://www.fcc-fac.ca/en/knowledge/ag-economics/farmland-values-report.html

15. z
z
Acreage by Farm
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/95-640-x/2011001/p1/figs/figure3-eng.htm or
https://www.country-guide.ca/guide-business/how-much-bigger-are-farms-getting/

16. z
Food
Prices/Canada
Source -
https://business.financialpo
st.com/news/retail-
marketing/canadians-vow-
to-dine-out-less-and-eat-
less-meat-next-year-to-
rein-in-rising-food-bill-
survey

17. z
Food Prices
Source – Stats Canada - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000201

18. z
Food Prices
Source – Stats Canada - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000201

19. z
Blog – Agriculture Sector
Who do you trust more to deal with AG Sector?
 @justintrudeau who poor relations with countries have hurt the AG sector -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wheat-canola-china-canada-trade-1.5263313
 @Andrewscheer – whose party led to new trade deals and expansion of exports -
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canadian-wheat-m-a-g3/saudi-firm-bunge-to-
buy-majority-stake-in-canadian-grain-handler-idUSKBN0N61PV20150416

20. z
Blog – Dairy Sector
Who do you trust more when it comes to Dairy Sector:
@justintrudeau who always comes up with more ways to tax farmers - https://ipolitics.ca/2017/09/05/trudeaus-going-to-pay-
a-heavy-price-for-tax-reform/
@andrewscheer who served under a government that supported farmers very well through new trade agreements -
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/161129/dq161129b-eng.htm
Other Sources
 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-dairy-sector-supply-management-canada-september-2019
 https://steinbachonline.com/ag-news/agriculture-news-mb/canadian-dairy-industry-reduces-carbon-footprint
 https://www.agcanada.com/daily/farm-groups-see-something-for-everyone-in-federal-budget
 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-rural-areas-and-affairs-canada

21. z
Dairy Volume
Source -
https://www150.statcan.gc.
ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=
3210011301&pickMembers
%5B0%5D=1.1&cubeTime
Frame.startMonth=01&cub
eTimeFrame.startYear=202
0&cubeTimeFrame.endMo
nth=06&cubeTimeFrame.e
ndYear=2020&referencePe
riods=20200101%2C20200
601

22. z
AG Subsidies
 https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/06/18/canada-can-end-dairy-trade-dispute-with-u-s-by-
ending-pricing-irritant-saputo/#.WyjfZKdKhPZ

 I agree Canada should review its agricultural support, but so should the USA. USA provides over
$20B per year in subsidies. Where is Trudeau on USA subsidies?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agriculture-sector-food-pricing-june-2018
 USA - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/exporting-and-importing/trump-tapping-us12b-to-
help-farmers-affected-by-tariffs-216532/
 Agriculture sector - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agriculture-sector-subsidies-and-
food-prices-july-2018

23. z
Farming Crisis
Source - https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/gwyn-morgan-the-
traumatic-demise-of-canadas-family-farms

24. z
Inflation

25. z
China and the AG Sector
 China is buying up farmland around the world -
https://www.farmlandgrab.org/post/view/27910-china-started-to-
buy-aggressively-agriculture-land-abroad
 China buys other AG products -
https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/as-
canola-spat-steals-headlines-china-quietly-buys-canada-crops
 AG sector should be identified as a strategic product -

26. z
Trade Disputes
 Canada and Canola “Canada’s agriculture industry needs to recognize it is “not dealing with a friendly
regime” when it comes to China and should focus its Asian growth ambitions on countries like Japan,
Taiwan and South Korea instead.” https://calgaryherald.com/business/local-business/canadian-
farmers-can-no-longer-depend-on-china-global-business-forum
 Exports “For Matt Sawyer, a canola and wheat farmer in Acme, Alta., the most pressing issue this
election is trade.
 "The last 36 months, we've lost trade with Vietnam, Peru, Saudi Arabia and China and we need to
come forward with some measures to re-establish trade for our producers as soon as we can. Bottom
line," he said. ”- https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/the-sunday-edition-for-september-22-2019-
1.5291065/canadian-farmers-on-trade-environmental-policy-and-the-federal-election-1.5291209

27. z
Drying AG Products
 “Farmers won't be getting any relief for the carbon tax that is paid on grain drying.
Agriculture and Agri-Food (AAFC) Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau says the data they've
received shows that the cost of the carbon tax on grain drying is not significant enough to
warrant any specific action. Bibeau made the comments during a media call Tuesday
morning. The estimates range from $210 to $819 per farm, 0.05 per cent to 0.42 per cent
of total farm operating expenses," she said. "If we were to move forward with this data,
many other businesses would also fall into the same level of impact.” source -
https://swiftcurrentonline.com/ag-news/ag-minister-says-farmers-won-t-be-getting-relief-
for-carbon-tax-paid-on-grain-drying
• There are many factors that go into the cost of drying grain -
https://www.albertafarmexpress.ca/news/digging-into-the-cost-of-drying-grain/
• Weather conditions during harvest can impact the requirement to dry grain -
https://www.producer.com/2019/11/wet-harvest-makes-producers-look-at-grain-drying/

28. z
Looking forward to a
future without factory
farming
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/looking-
forward-to-a-future-without-factory-farming/
According to Statistics Canada, the agriculture and agri-
food manufacturing sector contributed $49 billion to
Canada’s GDP in 2015, accounting for 2.6 per cent of
total GDP.
Farm groups have long been calling on the government
to address their needs amid the COVID-19 crises, with
requests for more emergency funding, a call to fix
Business Risk Management (BRM) programs which
farmers have long complained don’t meet their needs,
and a renewed request to axe the carbon tax for grain
drying costs. In May, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
announced $252 million in federal support for the
agriculture sector, less than 10 per cent of the $2.6
billion the CFA had said would be needed to respond to
the pandemic
• https://ipolitics.ca/2020/07/02/industry-reps-federal-
critic-say-farmers-will-need-more-support-to-
maximize-the-rebound-of-the-agricultural-sector/

29. z
Market Potential
 Source - http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vertical-farming-market-size-worth-99-billion-by-2025--cagr-224-grand-view-research-inc-620578263.html
The global vertical farming market is anticipated to reach USD 9.9 billion by 2025,
according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc. The increased use of
Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, for producing crops, is likely to spur the market
demand over the forecast period. The information obtained from the sensors is
stored on the cloud and analyzed to perform the required actions. The growing
automation in agriculture and increasing use of big data & predictive analytics, for
maximizing yields, are also likely to drive the market.

30. z
Pitfalls to Vertical Farming
Source - https://www.maximumyield.com/top-3-reasons-why-vertical-farms-fail/2/3177
1. They try to do too many things at once. - A common pitfall of many vertical farms is attempting to
both grow food for market while productizing and selling the technology they’re using to grow their
food.
2. They forget that labor is always the biggest cost. Reflecting on their own shuttered operations,
each of the three panelists echoed this warning about labor: Don’t overlook your labor costs. All
three panelists express similar challenges regarding the workers on their respective farms. While
the wages were relatively low (ranging from $9-15 per hour), labor costs added up quickly thanks to
the farms’ growing techniques
3. They don’t treat the farm like a process. - In today’s technology-based modern farming world, production is
not the problem. Growing in controlled environments and with proper plant nutrition allows modern farmers to
produce crops with astounding consistency and quality. Instead, the real issue these three farmers faced was
how to run their growing operations efficiently while minimizing cost.

31. z
IOT Market Leaders
 http://www.fox34.com/story/35300702/global-internet-of-things-iot-market-2017-size-share-
development-status-type-and-application-segmentation-forecast-by-2023

32. z
Companies / Vertical Farming
Source - https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/05/17/986832/0/en/Vertical-Farming-Market-to-exceed-13bn-by-2024-Global-Market-
Insights-Inc.html
Market Leaders
• General Hydroponics
• Aerofarms
• Plantagon International AB
• Urban Crop Solutions
• Sky Greens, Green Spirit Farms,
• Spread co Ltd
• Mirai Co.Ltd.
• American Hydroponics etc.
OEM Equipment:
• EVERLIGHT ELECTRONICS
CO., LTD (Taiwan)
• illumitex (Texas),
• Koninklijke Philips NV
(Netherlands).

33. z
Analytics and Farming
 Smarter Farming - https://www.ibm.com/blogs/research/2018/09/smarter-farms-agriculture/
 Big Data and AI - https://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/tag/2696
 AI - https://www.nasdaq.com/article/ai-and-farming-how-ibm-is-bringing-cuttingedge-
technology-to-one-of-the-worlds-oldest-industries-cm1024154
 Planning Analytics Digital Pack -
https://www.ibm.com/support/knowledgecenter/SSD29G_2.0.0/com.ibm.swg.ba.cognos.tm1_c
loud_mg.2.0.0.doc/c_tm1_cloud_system_digital_pack.html
 Cognos Analytics on Demand -
https://community.ibm.com/community/user/businessanalytics/blogs/david-
cushing/2018/12/13/1
 Planning Analytics with Cognos on Demand –
https://community.ibm.com/community/user/businessanalytics/blogs/bimpe-
adefowora/2020/11/11/padataondemand
 Predictability - https://community.ibm.com/community/user/businessanalytics/blogs/stuart-
martin-phillips1/2020/10/02/easy-forecasting-for-planning-users

34. z
Fish Farming/Aquaculture
“The government of Canada announced that they would be investing $1.2 million to support the
development of a web-based scientific data management system for integrating and sharing ocean
science data.” https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/feds-invests-1-2m-to-help-better-
understand-canadas-coastal-marine-ecosystems-through-science-256664/
Data does not mean much if you do not act on the data! The government needs to review is
policies and practices related to fish farming - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-
election-fish-farming-canada-august-2019
Government policies:
 Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fisheries-and-oceans-policy-review-canada

35. z
Training and Development
 If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning and
development then feel free
to review my material on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
 These subjects address how
to fixed issues with housing
and/or systemic issues
related to economy including
government policies

36. z
What is next
 The carbon tax needs to be scrap as it is making Canada less competitive, especially as nearly 87% of imports are coming from countries with high
CO2 emissions - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-environment-climate-change-issues-and-concerns-canada-september-2019
 Small business tax reforms like income sprinkling and passive income need to be eliminated
 Trade deals need to be expanded including more money for port expansion
 Government providing funding to AG Sector - https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/covid-19-trudeau-pledges-252-million-to-help-canadas-
agriculture-and-food-industries. Liberals also bumped up the carbon tax - https://globalnews.ca/news/6500544/farm-income-carbon-tax-
saskatchewan-agricluture/
 There needs to be integrated strategy to support rural areas including how farmers can support vertical farming
 More needs to be done to solve food issues related to the north, i.e. greenhouses or other options – https://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/feds-to-
clean-up-nutrition-north/
 Supply management system needs to eliminated. There will be a need for transitioning funding as part of eliminating the supply management
system. The Australia model should be reviewed - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/phasing-out-supply-management-lessons-from-australias-
dairy-industry
 There needs to be more focus on GDP / goods producing sector - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-gdp-and-economy-truth-and-
what-needs-to-change or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-to-get-goods-to-market