Here is my latest update on the new Normal

1. New Normal for
Canada and the
World
PAUL YOUNG CPA CGA
FEBRUARY 8, 2021

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Agenda
 GDP / January 2020
 Government
 Stock Market
 Household Debt
 Farm Incomes / 2019
 Affordability / February 2020
 Merchandise Trade / February 2020
 Job Losses / March 2020
 Government Stimulus
 Provinces / re-opening
 Healthcare
 WHO
 China and transparency
 Reforming government
 Automation
 Hospitality Sector
 Vaccinations
 Masks and the New Norm
 Crisis Management
 Additional Sources – Training and Development

4. Global Forecast
Source - https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.global-outlook-and-forecast-tables.scotiabank's-forecast-tables.2021.february-4--2021.html

5. Transforming
government
 All levels of government will need to be
transformed
 Areas of focus
 Fiscal management
 Crisis and Risk Management
 Compensation management
 Urban planning
 Economic development
 Source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-
management-provinces-canada or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-
for-municipal-government

6. Government
 All levels of government need to undertake a
fiscal cycle management review
 All levels of governments need to have audit
risk and crisis management reports -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisi
s-management-how-best-to-managed-a-crisis
 All levels of government must follow
performance and operational audits as part of
fixing any issues with public policy (value for
money/program spending, efficient and
effective use of resources, tax fairness, etc.
 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/
fiscal-management-provinces-canada or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/
fiscal-management-united-states-
individual-states-performance or

7. Farm Incomes
 Carbon Tax / Farm Incomes “An organization representing
agricultural producers in Saskatchewan says the federal carbon
tax could eat up to 12 per cent of a farmer’s net income by
2022.” https://globalnews.ca/news/6500544/farm-income-
carbon-tax-saskatchewan-agricluture/
 Farm Income / 2018 –” The realized net farm income of
agricultural producers fell 45.1% in 2018 to $3.9 billion, the
largest percentage decrease since 2006. This followed a 2.8%
decline in 2017. Realized net income is the difference between
a farmer's cash receipts and operating expenses, minus
depreciation, plus income in kind. Rising feed, interest and
labor costs together with little change in farm cash receipts
pushed realized net farm income lower. Realized net income
fell in every province except New Brunswick (+7.2%) where an
increase in cannabis and potato production boosted receipts.
More than one-third of the national decrease was attributable
to a 68.1% decline in Alberta. ” -
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-
quotidien/190528/dq190528a-eng.htm
 Farmers continue to struggle with taxation and overregulation
by all levels of government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-how-are-
farmers-doing-in-financial-in-canada

8. Stock Market
Source – BMO and TSX

9. Stock Market
Source – BMO and TSX

10. Household
Debt
Household debt slightly decline
4Q20 - Household debt as a
proportion of disposable income
ticked down from 176.6% in the third
quarter to 176.3% in Q4, the agency
reported.
At the same time, the household
debt service ratio — which
represents payments of principal and
interest as a proportion of household
disposable income — rose to 14.98%,
StatsCan said. Debt payments grew
by 6.9% in 2019, while disposable
income rose by 4.9%. – Source -
https://www.advisor.ca/news/econo
mic/household-debt-remains-
elevated-service-ratio-rises-statscan/
There have been systemic issues with urban planning -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/urban-and-rural-planning-whats-next or
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-market-canada-and-usa-october-
2020
Trudeau’s policies have not made housing any more affordable. One could argue that
@JustinTrudeau policies like carbon tax have hurt housing costs -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-market-canada-august-2020 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/affordability-have-the-liberals-improve-the-
lives-of-canadians or https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/cost-of-living-in-
canada-october-2020 or https://www.moneysense.ca/save/debt/canadas-climbing-
debt-to-income-ratio-what-you-need-to-know/

11. Global Protectionism
• The world has seen a rise in global protectionism.
• Buy America
• Controlling of key parts of the supply chain
• Lack of WTO Reforms
November 2020
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/trade-and-protectionism-policies-internal-trade-barriers-canada
June 2018
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-the-world-heading-to-more-protectionism-june-2018
FIPA/2016
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-fipa-foreign-investmnet-proection-act-canada-review

12. January 2021
Canada lost over 200K jobs in January 2021 as compare to the United States who gain 49K
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/job-quality-and-labor-market-analysis-canada-january-2021 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-and-the-labour-marketunited-states-january-2021

13. OECD Employment – January 2021
Source - https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Unemployment-Rates-OECD-
Updated-January-2021--32262354/

14. Government
Stimulus
 Private Sector
 Loan deferrals
 Mortgages
 Federal Government
 Wage Subsidies
 GST tax credits
 Child tax benefit
 Loans to businesses
 Rent Subsidies
 Additional programs for other sectors of the
economy (TBA)
 Additional wage support (TBA)
• There have been many issues with stimulus including the size and effectiveness -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-debt-and-deficits-canada or
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-and-economic-management-federal-and-state-government-usa-
239156173
• The Liberals are planning additional stimulus targeted at UBI and the Green Economy. The Canadian economy cannot
afford more social and green spending - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-economy-current-state-
and-whats-next or https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-global-economy-november-2020

15. Carbon Tax
 The federal government increase the carbon tax by 50%
 https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/april-1-in-canada-federal-
carbon-tax-jumps-50-and-mps-salaries-grow-2-1
 Trudeau says people get more back, but the reality Trudeau
is not taking in account the costs pass through the supply
chain - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/truth-
about-emissions-and-carbon-pricing
 Trudeau is using the pandemic to push Agenda 2030 -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-and-
agenda-2030-justin-trudeau-end-state-for-canada or
Agenda 2030
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-
emissions-and-climate-change-canada-and-the-world or
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agenda-2030-
canada-economic-reset
 Provinces have said little as provinces could be delay and/or
in some cases deny federal funding if they do not support
the carbon tax - https://ipolitics.ca/2020/04/09/morneau-
provinces-must-apply-climate-lens-to-covid-19-recovery-
efforts/?fbclid=IwAR0hddQ9r4aIh43upNgLRJfRT9xMQDxem0
Ov5_pc9NgU0VV9UA0r1CTfJ4Y

16. Garth Turner /
GDP
Source -
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2
020/04/09/this-is-
tough/?fbclid=IwAR1yVes6k
mI6MMKtyy_oSe2c4PUywr3p
rqYABPCR2tA-
YZOXqEnOauy_FQk

17. Provinces / Re-
opening
 There is going to need to be gradual phase in when it comes to re-opening
the economy
 Procurement of medical supplies - https://buyandsell.gc.ca/calling-all-
suppliers-help-canada-combat-covid-19 - There needs to be a made
in North America solution as part ensuring quality control meets
Health Canada standard
 Social distancing needs to be adhere too -
https://www.live5news.com/2020/04/21/lowcountry-retail-businesses-
reopen-under-strict-social-distancing-rules/
 Keeping the border close to international travel -
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/04/19/us-and-
canada-agree-to-extend-border-closure-for-non-essential-travel/
 Tight restrictions on China
 No travel to/from China
 All Chinese goods should be quarantine for 14 days
 No sale of assets and/or debt to China -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wiil-china-become-
more-open-and-transparent
 Travel is still coming in from international locations -
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-
quotidien/200916/dq200916e-eng.htm
 My work on COVID19 -

18. Healthcare
 Funding for assisted living and healthcare -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retirement-and-assistant-
living-canada-issues-and-what-needs-to-be-done
 Continue work with pharma on vaccines and treatments
 https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/big-pharma-improve-
reputation-covid-19-response/
 Steps should be taken to protect the most vulnerable
 Isolation
 Masks / testing
 Treatments
 Healthcare reforms:
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-
healthcare-in-crisis-may-2020
 LTC - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
retirement-and-assisted-living-what-needs-to-be-done
 Vaccines -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/covid19-race-
to-vaccine-and-expediting-testing-june-2020
 Pandemics -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/pandemic-
management-of-a-crisis
 COVID19 -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/management
-of-pandemic-november-19-2020-analysis

19. Reforming the
WHO
The UN and its various agencies need to be more
accountable including performance audits. All
funding should be tied to performance audits and
operation audits (Value for Money)
 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-
the-united-nations-and-its-agencies-like-who-
need-to-be-reformed

20. China and
transparency  China favorable status needs to be review, i.e. WTO,
International Law, etc.
 Clean Tech -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/electrical-
vehicles-ev-all-you-need-to-know-may-2020 (See slide
21)
 China - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/china-
path-to-global-domination or
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/china-path-to-
global-domination-239279410

21. Automation /
transformation
 Streamlining audit using analytics - In the private sector is
when I see bad audit reports trigger management
changes! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-
importance-of-value-for-money-and-perfomance-based-
audits
 More automation - https://www.globenewswire.com/news-
release/2020/05/29/2040784/0/en/Robotic-Process-
Automation-RPA-Market-to-Reach-6-81-Billion-by-2026-
Increasing-Investment-in-Cloud-Integration-Will-Bode-
Well-for-Market-Growth-says-Fortune-Business-
Insights.html or
https://www.statista.com/statistics/257170/global-
automation-market-revenue-by-end-market/
 Transforming government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reform-
the-public-sector-in-canada-and-around-the-world
 IT will play key role in terms of the economy
transformation -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-better-
support-the-technological-sector
 The role of AI -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/artificial-
intelligence-ai-with-office-of-the-cfo or
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2020/10/2
8/four-ways-artificial-intelligence-is-hidden-in-our-daily-
lives/?sh=151024ea67ed
 Move to more containerization of IT applications -
https://www.analyticsinsight.net/top-4-cloud-
technologies-that-will-go-mainstream-in-2021/

22. Hospitality Sector
Hospitality sector
 More automation / Hotels - https://www.revfine.com/hotel-technology/
 Restaurant / Automation - https://marketscale.com/industries/food-and-beverage/how-are-restaurants-using-automation/ or
https://www.qsrmagazine.com/technology/covid-19-accelerates-age-automation-restaurants
 Cooking robots - https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/the-cooking-robotics-space-expected-to-be-a-322m-business-by-2028-
study-s/588439/
 Automated bartender - https://www.usaonlinecasino.com/blog/new-tech/will-robots-replace-casino-bartenders/
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/hospitality-and-food-service-sector-canada

23. Mask and Social Distancing
 Social distancing and masking are here to stay
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-why-a-mask-
and-social-distancing-are-still-needed-even-if-you-get-the-shot/

24. Crisis Management
I think it is time for both the public and private sector to have audited crisis and emergency management reports as part of their
close, consolidate, and reporting cycle! https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisis-and-emergency-management-how-best-to-
manage-risk
Blog - How to Transform Amid a Crisis a Crisis
The pandemic has accelerated underlying trends and pushed many companies to the brink of crisis. Reinvention is the key not only
to survival but also to long-term success.
It should be also noted that pandemic is not the only factor impacting both the private sector and public sectors. Both the private
and public sectors need to revise their risk policies and procedures including audited crisis and emergency management reports on
annual basis
Both the private and public sector need to embrace data and AI as part of managing their financial performance and results.
https://www.bcg.com/featured-insights/how-to/crisis-
transformation?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=esp&utm_campaign=none&utm_description=ealert&utm_topic=none&utm_g
eo=global&utm_content=202101&utm_usertoken=3e7e80a519d37879a15cb0322ecd17140a8832dc

25. What needs
to help
support the
economy
 Many businesses will like restructured and/or shutdown due to loss of income - https://www.cfo.com/bankruptcy/2020/04/the-
restructuring-remedy/?utm_campaign=CFODailyAlert&utm_nooverride=1&utm_source=CFO-
email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=CFODailyAlert_Thursday_2020-4-9&utm_term=bankruptcy
 500K jobs will like never come back
 All levels of government will need to focus on economic development strategy
 Emphasis on infrastructure spending - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-infrastructure-and-transit
 Reforming the size of government, i.e. value for money and performance audits -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-of-value-for-money-and-perfomance-based-audits
 Skills Trades - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-human-capital-and-skills-management-canada-
september-2019
 Reforming tax and regulations to support goods producing sector - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-
going-on-with-canadas-competitiveness
 Emphasis on natural resources and food processing sector - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-of-natural-
resources-sector-canada and https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agriculture-and-farming-sector-whats-next
 Development of rural strategy as part of encouraging people to move to rural areas -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-rural-areas-and-affairs-canada
 Eliminating the carbon tax and focusing on more balance between the environment and the economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/truth-about-emissions-carbon-taxes-and-climate-change
 Re-focusing on manufacturing
 Drug/medical supplies and other products should be made locally - https://www.industryweek.com/the-
economy/competitiveness/article/21965621/the-drivers-of-manufacturing-reshoring
 Encouraging manufacturing back to Canada,
 Medical supplies and equipment
 Consumer products/devices
 3-D printing / Automation
 Technology will help support the recovery - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/technology-whats-
next-for-canada
 Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-canadas-manufacturing-sector

26. Training and
Development
 If you like to learn more about
trade and/or other subjects as
part of your professional
learning and development
then feel free to review my
material on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA CGA)
 These subjects address how to
fixed issues with housing
and/or systemic issues related
to economy including
government policies