What if this were really true?
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Keynote presentation to the Wairarapa Principal's Association meeting in Masterton on Monday 6 June, 2017
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What if this were really true?
- 1. What if this is really true? Wairarapa Principals Association Masterton, 7 June 2017 derek.wenmoth@core-ed.org @dwenmoth http://www.wenmoth.net
- 2. Our changing world Our world is changing and changing rapidly. What must we do to prepare students for living and working in the 21st century? How must our schools and teachers change to meet these opportunities and challenges?
- 3. Future Shock •“Future shock is the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time.” •Alvin Toffler
- 4. The Future… • Food supply • Water • Cryogenics • Nano-technology • Superdiversity • Human rights • Poverty • Religious intolerance
- 6. • “Economists may be underestimating how fast the robots are coming. • Robots and intelligent machines threaten to replace workers in industries from finance to retail to haulage, with more than 15 million British jobs and 80 million in the U.S. lost to automation.” • BOE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-01/economists-may-be-underestimating- how-fast-the-robots-are-coming
- 8. 8 Skilled Jobs that may soon be replaced by Robots http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/8-skilled-jobs-may-soon-replaced-robots/ AccountantsReal estate agentsWritersAttorneysProfessional DriversMedical StaffCashiersCall Centre Operators
- 10. Change in demand for skills 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009 Routine manual Nonroutine manual Routine cognitive Nonroutine analytic Nonroutine interpersonal Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Autor, David H. and Brendan M. Price. 2013. "The Changing Task Composition of the US Labor Market: An Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003)." MIT Mimeograph, June.
- 12. • “The artificial intelligence revolution and its impact on the US workforce is not even on our radar screen… • …technology is still 50 to 100 years from displacing human jobs.” • US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin http://m.nzherald.co.nz/technology/news/article.cfm?c_id=5&objectid=11825496
- 13. BUT WAIT... What if it really IS TRUE?
- 14. • What would schools look like? • How would they operate? • What would teachers do? • What would the curriculum be like? • How would we organise the school day? • How would we assess learning? • What would be the role of digital technologies? • What would be different? How would we need to change?
- 18. “We’re still working within the same twentieth-century framework. The thinking hasn’t changed. It’s just couching what we’ve already done in much fancier production values. It looks cooler and more digitised, but the underlying educational objectives have not changed.” Dr. Jane Gilbert http://idealog.co.nz/etc/2015/03/educating-future-we-cant-imagine
- 21. “…if we don’t change the way we are teaching our young people, they will be staggeringly ill-prepared for the future.” Dr. Jane Gilbert http://idealog.co.nz/etc/2015/03/educating-future-we-cant-imagine
- 24. Future Shock •“Our technological powers increase, but the side effects and potential hazards also escalate.” •Alvin Toffler
- 25. Digital vs Human • “It’s all progress… but progress towards what?” • “It’s true that technology is neutral – but only if you take humans out of the equation.” • “We need a broader debate about what is happening with technological developments.” https://www.amazon.com/Digital-Human-well-think-future-ebook/dp/B01D0IEO00
- 26. “The real problem of humanity is the following: we have paleolithic emotions; medieval institutions; and god-like technology.” Edward Wilson, US Biologist https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._O._Wilson