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Weibull using Tableau + R Integration
18-JUL-17
Monica Willbrand
Tableau Professional Services
• 3 years Tableau Professional Services
+ Tableau Desktop Qualified Associate +
+ Tableau Server Qualified Associate +
• 8 years Semiconductor industry
Relevant Background:
• Talk about the tools will use
• Brief overview of Weibull analysis
• Walk through process and calculations
• If we DON’T get through it, the organizers will have this deck and
Tableau workbook
Agenda
What is Tableau?
• Visualization software
• On a mission to help people see and
understand data
• 2017 Gartner Magic Quadrant for BI and
Analytics: 5 years a leader
Tableau + R Server
What does Weibull look like?
• Reliability analysis or Lifetime Data Analysis
(LDA)
• Statistical analysis to determine coefficients
– Beta = shape parameter
– Eta = scale parameter
• Bathtub curve
Bathtub Curve
• Weibull
characteristic
failure distribution
for all three
phases of bathtub
curve
β <1 β =1 β >1
How does it look in other tools?
• Reliasoft (Weibull++)
• Matlab
• R
• Tableau (Kaplan Meier
method)
• Tableau + R (Weibull analysis)
e
R vs Tableau+ R
R + R Server, and a couple of packages for Weibull
• Get R @ https://www.r-project.org/
• Get Rserve package
• Get packages invoked by Rscript:
– Flexsurv
– Plyr
• Download and unzip in your R
library, e.g.
Program FilesRR-3.3.3library
Fire up R
• Open R
• Start Rserve
Point Tableau to R
Back to Tableau…
• Connect to data
• Build Rscripts
Rscript in Tableau for R(t)
• R(t) = SCRIPT_REAL('
library(flexsurv);
library(plyr)
input<-data.frame(time=.arg1);
S <- Surv(.arg1,.arg2)
fit <- flexsurvreg(S~1,dist="weibull")
s<-summary(fit, cl=0.8, tidy=TRUE, type=.arg3[1])
c<-join(input, s, by = "time");
c$est',
AVG([Time In Field]),ATTR([Failure Flag]),"survival")
arg1 = Time in Field
arg2= Failure Flag
arg3= survival
Confidence bands
• Create parameter in Tableau
– Data type: Float
– Allowable values: Range
– Enter range of values
• Rscript for each band
R(t) lower interval
SCRIPT_REAL('
library(flexsurv);
library(plyr)
input<-data.frame(time=.arg1);
S <- Surv(.arg1,.arg2)
fit <- flexsurvreg(S~1,dist="weibull")
s<-summary(fit, cl=.arg3[1], tidy=TRUE, type=.arg4[1])
c<-join(input, s, by = "time");
c$lcl',
AVG([Time In Field]),ATTR([Failure Flag]),[interval range],"survival")
arg1 = Time in Field
arg2= Failure Flag
arg3= interval range
arg4= survival
R(t) upper interval
SCRIPT_REAL('
library(flexsurv);
library(plyr)
input<-data.frame(time=.arg1);
S <- Surv(.arg1,.arg2)
fit <- flexsurvreg(S~1,dist="weibull")
s<-summary(fit, cl=.arg3[1], tidy=TRUE, type=.arg4[1])
c<-join(input, s, by = "time");
c$ucl',
AVG([Time In Field]),ATTR([Failure Flag]),[interval range],"survival")
arg1 = Time in Field
arg2= Failure Flag
arg3= interval range
arg4= survival
Calc for F(t)
• F(t)=1-R(t) = Q(t) = Unreliability over time
Beta calc
SCRIPT_REAL('
library(flexsurv);
S <- Surv(.arg1,.arg2)
fit <- flexsurvreg(S~1,dist="weibull")
shape <- fit$res[1];
scale <- fit$res[2];
shape',
AVG([Time In Field]),ATTR([Failure Flag]))
arg1 = Time in Field
arg2= Failure Flag
Eta calc
SCRIPT_REAL('
library(flexsurv);
S <- Surv(.arg1,.arg2)
fit <- flexsurvreg(S~1,dist="weibull")
shape <- fit$res[1];
scale <- fit$res[2];
(scale)',
AVG([Time In Field]),ATTR([Failure Flag]))
arg1 = Time in Field
arg2= Failure Flag
Plotting data points. Some calcs.
• Censored?
If [Failure Suspension Flag] = 'S' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END
• Cohort Data=
IF SUM([Censored?]) = 1 THEN NULL ELSE
([Adj Median Rank]-.3)/(TOTAL(SUM([Number of Records]))+.4)
END
• Adjusted median rank=
IF SUM([Censored?]) = 1 THEN PREVIOUS_VALUE(0)
ELSE
(([Inverse Rank] * PREVIOUS_VALUE(0))+(TOTAL(SUM([Number of Records]))+1))/([Inverse Rank]+1)
END
Set up marks in Tableau:
Survival Plot
Review
• Tools to perform Weibull
– Tableau
– R Integration
– Scripts
– Reference links in the slide notes
Links:
• Download Tableau
• Get R
• Download packages:
– https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/Rserve/index.html
– https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/flexsurv/index.html
– https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/plyr/index.html
• 2017 Gartner Magic Quadrant for BI and Analytics: 5 years a leader
Thanks!
• Contact info:
• mwillbrand@tableau.com
• https://public.tableau.com/profile/monica.willbrand#!/

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Weibull using Tableau + R Integration

  • 1. Weibull using Tableau + R Integration 18-JUL-17 Monica Willbrand Tableau Professional Services
  • 2. • 3 years Tableau Professional Services + Tableau Desktop Qualified Associate + + Tableau Server Qualified Associate + • 8 years Semiconductor industry Relevant Background:
  • 3. • Talk about the tools will use • Brief overview of Weibull analysis • Walk through process and calculations • If we DON’T get through it, the organizers will have this deck and Tableau workbook Agenda
  • 4. What is Tableau? • Visualization software • On a mission to help people see and understand data • 2017 Gartner Magic Quadrant for BI and Analytics: 5 years a leader
  • 5. Tableau + R Server
  • 6. What does Weibull look like? • Reliability analysis or Lifetime Data Analysis (LDA) • Statistical analysis to determine coefficients – Beta = shape parameter – Eta = scale parameter • Bathtub curve
  • 7. Bathtub Curve • Weibull characteristic failure distribution for all three phases of bathtub curve β <1 β =1 β >1
  • 8. How does it look in other tools? • Reliasoft (Weibull++) • Matlab • R • Tableau (Kaplan Meier method) • Tableau + R (Weibull analysis) e
  • 10. R + R Server, and a couple of packages for Weibull • Get R @ https://www.r-project.org/ • Get Rserve package • Get packages invoked by Rscript: – Flexsurv – Plyr • Download and unzip in your R library, e.g. Program FilesRR-3.3.3library
  • 11. Fire up R • Open R • Start Rserve
  • 13. Back to Tableau… • Connect to data • Build Rscripts
  • 14. Rscript in Tableau for R(t) • R(t) = SCRIPT_REAL(' library(flexsurv); library(plyr) input<-data.frame(time=.arg1); S <- Surv(.arg1,.arg2) fit <- flexsurvreg(S~1,dist="weibull") s<-summary(fit, cl=0.8, tidy=TRUE, type=.arg3[1]) c<-join(input, s, by = "time"); c$est', AVG([Time In Field]),ATTR([Failure Flag]),"survival") arg1 = Time in Field arg2= Failure Flag arg3= survival
  • 15. Confidence bands • Create parameter in Tableau – Data type: Float – Allowable values: Range – Enter range of values • Rscript for each band
  • 16. R(t) lower interval SCRIPT_REAL(' library(flexsurv); library(plyr) input<-data.frame(time=.arg1); S <- Surv(.arg1,.arg2) fit <- flexsurvreg(S~1,dist="weibull") s<-summary(fit, cl=.arg3[1], tidy=TRUE, type=.arg4[1]) c<-join(input, s, by = "time"); c$lcl', AVG([Time In Field]),ATTR([Failure Flag]),[interval range],"survival") arg1 = Time in Field arg2= Failure Flag arg3= interval range arg4= survival
  • 17. R(t) upper interval SCRIPT_REAL(' library(flexsurv); library(plyr) input<-data.frame(time=.arg1); S <- Surv(.arg1,.arg2) fit <- flexsurvreg(S~1,dist="weibull") s<-summary(fit, cl=.arg3[1], tidy=TRUE, type=.arg4[1]) c<-join(input, s, by = "time"); c$ucl', AVG([Time In Field]),ATTR([Failure Flag]),[interval range],"survival") arg1 = Time in Field arg2= Failure Flag arg3= interval range arg4= survival
  • 18. Calc for F(t) • F(t)=1-R(t) = Q(t) = Unreliability over time
  • 19. Beta calc SCRIPT_REAL(' library(flexsurv); S <- Surv(.arg1,.arg2) fit <- flexsurvreg(S~1,dist="weibull") shape <- fit$res[1]; scale <- fit$res[2]; shape', AVG([Time In Field]),ATTR([Failure Flag])) arg1 = Time in Field arg2= Failure Flag
  • 20. Eta calc SCRIPT_REAL(' library(flexsurv); S <- Surv(.arg1,.arg2) fit <- flexsurvreg(S~1,dist="weibull") shape <- fit$res[1]; scale <- fit$res[2]; (scale)', AVG([Time In Field]),ATTR([Failure Flag])) arg1 = Time in Field arg2= Failure Flag
  • 21. Plotting data points. Some calcs. • Censored? If [Failure Suspension Flag] = 'S' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END • Cohort Data= IF SUM([Censored?]) = 1 THEN NULL ELSE ([Adj Median Rank]-.3)/(TOTAL(SUM([Number of Records]))+.4) END • Adjusted median rank= IF SUM([Censored?]) = 1 THEN PREVIOUS_VALUE(0) ELSE (([Inverse Rank] * PREVIOUS_VALUE(0))+(TOTAL(SUM([Number of Records]))+1))/([Inverse Rank]+1) END
  • 22. Set up marks in Tableau:
  • 24. Review • Tools to perform Weibull – Tableau – R Integration – Scripts – Reference links in the slide notes
  • 25. Links: • Download Tableau • Get R • Download packages: – https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/Rserve/index.html – https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/flexsurv/index.html – https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/plyr/index.html • 2017 Gartner Magic Quadrant for BI and Analytics: 5 years a leader
  • 26. Thanks! • Contact info: • mwillbrand@tableau.com • https://public.tableau.com/profile/monica.willbrand#!/

Editor's Notes

  1. Assumes general knowledge of reliability, Tableau, and R
  2. AWESOME ability to execute, completeness of vision https://public.tableau.com/en-us/s/gallery Wonderful online community https://community.tableau.com/welcome >100k users
  3. Tableau + R https://www.tableau.com/learn/whitepapers/using-r-and-tableau What is Rserve? https://www.rforge.net/Rserve/ TCP/IP server which allows other programs to use facilities of R (see www.r-project.org) from various languages without the need to initialize R or link against R library. Every connection has a separate workspace and working directory. Client-side implementations are available for popular languages such as C/C++, PHP and Java. Rserve supports remote connection, authentication and file transfer. Typical use is to integrate R backend for computation of statistical models, plots etc. in other applications.
  4. Think about trip up today, mtbf for switching gear Care about these coefficients Tell us about our population, our failure rate IM when beta <1, result of defects, design, assembly Normal life when beta =1, constant/random failures, e.g. “stress exceeds strength” End of life wear out, beta >1  Talking about values beta, may be thinking of the bathtub curb Kaplan Meier method from OCatherin: https://community.tableau.com/thread/171437 Instruction Workbook Validation method using R
  5. - Relative failure rate of an entire population of products, two coefficients β Ƞ determine when given portion of population will fail Intercept (eta) & Beta [shape] F(t)= 1 – R(t) R(t)=e-(t/Ƞ)^β Non-R: https://community.tableau.com/thread/171437 If infant mortality, highly accelerated stress testing Identify failing components, RCA for defectivity or material variation
  6. --R console feels like command line, not interactive --KM uses Max Likelihood Estimate to get parameter When we use the KM method we are using MLE or Max Likelihood Estimate, vs. Weibull, using LSE, or Least Squares estimate, we get accurate parameters beta and eta that one would obtain using Reliasoft program (validated w/ client). Ultimately, SE much lower w/ Weibull. To do this in Tableau, we must integrate with R server
  7. Workbook outcome, presenting in Powerpoint, not Tableau F(t)= 1 – R(t) F(t) = unreliability R(t)=e-(t/Ƞ)^β logarithmic scale Show failure points Overview of connection between Tableau + RServe Script See in R console, it’s fun, kinda visual In Tableau, beautifully executed, very visual, interactive Weibull, CI bands
  8. Download & install R console, libraries https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/Rserve/index.html https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/flexsurv/index.html https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/plyr/index.html - Bell labs 1976 Statistical analysis, modeling Programming, based off of S R, 1993, Ross Ihaka Robert Gentlemen open source, free! Verifiable, e.g. give someone a drug, claim improvement is survivability Anyone can contribute, stats packages NIST resource for Weibull:   http://itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/apr/section4/apr413.r
  9. What is Rserve? https://www.rforge.net/Rserve/ What is Rserve?        Rserve is a TCP/IP server which allows other programs to use facilities of R (see www.r-project.org) from various languages without the need to initialize R or link against R library. Every connection has a separate workspace and working directory. Client-side implementations are available for popular languages such as C/C++, PHP and Java. Rserve supports remote connection, authentication and file transfer. Typical use is to integrate R backend for computation of statstical models, plots etc. in other applications.
  10. Point Desktop client to Rserve Commands to point Tableau Server to Rserve: http://kb.tableau.com/articles/HowTo/configuring-tableau-server-for-r-and-rserve?userSource=1
  11. Data required: Time in field Failure Flag ID for patient/part/widget
  12. F(t)=1-R(t) = Q(t) = Unreliability over time= arg1 = response variable arg2 = censor flag “Survival” argument can be replaced with Hazard or Cumulative Hazard depending on curve we want to plot Parameterize and swap on the fly http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda362.htm#CDF Hazard The hazard function is the ratio of the probability density function to the survival function
  13. Cl Width of symmetric confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates, by default 0.95 in flexsurv package - Add argument for confidence interval range w/ parameter https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/flexsurv/flexsurv.pdf
  14. Shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, beta (β), represents the failure rate behavior. If beta is less than 1, then the failure rate decreases with time; If beta is greater than 1, then the failure rate increases with time. when beta is equal to 1, the failure rate is constant.
  15. http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/apr/section2/apr221.htm For each time ti of the i-th failure, calculate the CDF or percentile estimate using 100(i−0.3)/(n+0.4). http://reliawiki.org/index.php/Parameter_Estimation Least squares (rank regression) vertical deviation from line to miniize
  16. Table calcs compute using Specific dimensions: Time in Field ID (e.g. Serial Number or Patient ID) At the level: Deepest Restarting every: None Sort order: Specific Dimensions (default) Combined field to create path/lines from point-to-point for Confidence Bands
  17. Hmmmm, beta < 1…. Failures decrease over time Infant mortality failures Stress testing of product Maybe out gear wouldn’t have been problematic this a.m. (Amtrak!)
  18. http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/apr/section2/apr221.htm http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/apr/section1/apr162.htm
  19. Thanks to Bora & ProServe