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Show me the money Web 2.0 Expo April 18 th , 2007 Jeremy Liew Partner, Lightspeed Venture Partners www.Lightspeedvp.com Lsvp.wordpress.com
Its cheaper than ever to start an internet company… $ ‘000s Source: Carsonified.com/SXSW Presentation
… and cheaper than ever to run an internet company SAMPLE EXPENSE BUDGET ,[object Object],$0.2m Other Costs $1.4m TOTAL ,[object Object],$0.2m Infrastructure Costs ,[object Object],[object Object],$1.0m Staff Costs Assumptions Annual Fixed Costs
As a result, getting to breakeven isn’t too hard… * Assumes ad sales by an ad network or ad rep firm Illustrative 0% -  0% -  EBITDA 3% 200  7% 200  Other Costs 3% 200  7% 200  Infrastructure Costs 14% 1,000  36% 1,000  Staff Costs 10% 700  0% -  Marketing 70% 4,900  50%* 1,400  Cost of Goods 100% 7,000  100% 2,800  Revenue % $ '000s % $ '000s E-Commerce Media
…but you still need to be big to be public MEDIA E-COMMERCE PUBLIC COMPANY ’07 REV MULTIPLES REVENUE NEEDED FOR $500M EV* * Assumed minimum public company scale to sustain meaningful trading volume and analyst coverage Source: Goldman Sachs Research, March 25, 2007, Lightspeed Analysis
Significant variation in revenue targeted for internet companies to breakeven versus to be public MEDIA E-COMMERCE BREAKEVEN PUBLIC, $500M EV* * Based on median multiples $277M $7.0M $131M $2.8M
Media Companies
Advertising RPMs* depend on your ability to deliver a targeted audience $10-40 $1-5 $0.50 - 2 ** Facebook revenue estimate “well over $100m”, Fandango revenue estimated to be “around $50m with half from advertising and half from ticketing” Source: Myspace, Merrill Lynch; Facebook, MSNBC; Fandango, Techcrunch; Traffic, Comscore; Lightspeed Analysis * RPM =  Revenue per thousand pageviews, taking into account multiple ad units and all forms of advertising: CPM, CPC and lead gen 600M 126B 524B Annual US PVs $41.67 50M $25M** Fandango $1.03 12B $150M** Facebook $0.52 44B $271M Myspace RPM March US PVs 2007 Revenue Example
To reach breakeven, US traffic requirements can become quite meaningful, depending on RPMs RPM PV/Mth to reach  $2.8M in revenue Sites with comparable US Traffic ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Comscore, Lightspeed Analysis Not necessarily demographically targeted Not necessarily endemically targeted
US traffic requirements are even higher to reach public company levels RPM PV/Mth to reach  $131M in revenue ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Comscore, Lightspeed Analysis Sites with comparable US Traffic Not necessarily demographically targeted Not necessarily endemically targeted
E-Commerce Companies
Many e-commerce niches are large enough to support $7M in revenue, our illustrative breakeven level Allheart.com – nursing apparel Figleaves.com – lingerie Hats.com – hats Ridegear.com – motorcycle gear Source: Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide, 2006 Edition
There are three ways to get to over $271M in e-commerce revenues, public company type levels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Relatively few pure play e-commerce companies have achieved over $271M in annual sales so far Amazon.com Newegg.com  Source: Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide, 2006 Edition, Goldman Sachs $8,490M $1,300M $804M $688M $399M $345M Below $271M in 2005 but projected over $271M in 2007 Amazon Newegg Overstock Netflix Drugstore Buy.com Bluenile Peapod VistaPrint Zappos 2005 Revenue Company
In 2005, there were at least 227 companies with e-commerce revenues over $25M, but none with multiple websites in this range Source: Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide, 2006 Edition Supplements PC hardware Auto parts Shoes Kitchen goods Plumbing and Lighting Blinds Women’s clothing Beauty Products Sheet Music Products $46M $45M $45M $44M $40M $39M $38M $34M $32M $27M Bodybuilding.com Computer Geeks Parts Train Shoemall Cooking.com Decorative Product Source Blinds.com Shopbop Gloss.com Sheet Music Plus 2005 Revenue Company
A number of companies have taken a portfolio approach, building large numbers of stores Source: Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide, 2006 Edition, Company websites bicycletrailers.com, highchairs.com, sparebed.com, suuntowatches.com, tricyclekids.com Niche Retail Aquariumsdirect.com, croquet.com, daybeds.com, hammocks.com, justglobes.com, potracksgalore.com Netshops Pilates-exercise-direct.com, Rowingmachines.com, sofabed-store.com, tennis-ball-machine-guide.com Mercantila homeclick.com, absolutehome.com, barbeques.com, knobsandthings.com, poolclick.com Home Décor Products adirondack-furniture-direct.com, allairbeds.com, bedrooms.com, csnbunkbeds.com, everysafe.com CSN Stores Sample Websites (not exhaustive) Company
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Web 2.0 Expo ShowMe The Money

  • 1. Show me the money Web 2.0 Expo April 18 th , 2007 Jeremy Liew Partner, Lightspeed Venture Partners www.Lightspeedvp.com Lsvp.wordpress.com
  • 2. Its cheaper than ever to start an internet company… $ ‘000s Source: Carsonified.com/SXSW Presentation
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  • 4. As a result, getting to breakeven isn’t too hard… * Assumes ad sales by an ad network or ad rep firm Illustrative 0% - 0% - EBITDA 3% 200 7% 200 Other Costs 3% 200 7% 200 Infrastructure Costs 14% 1,000 36% 1,000 Staff Costs 10% 700 0% - Marketing 70% 4,900 50%* 1,400 Cost of Goods 100% 7,000 100% 2,800 Revenue % $ '000s % $ '000s E-Commerce Media
  • 5. …but you still need to be big to be public MEDIA E-COMMERCE PUBLIC COMPANY ’07 REV MULTIPLES REVENUE NEEDED FOR $500M EV* * Assumed minimum public company scale to sustain meaningful trading volume and analyst coverage Source: Goldman Sachs Research, March 25, 2007, Lightspeed Analysis
  • 6. Significant variation in revenue targeted for internet companies to breakeven versus to be public MEDIA E-COMMERCE BREAKEVEN PUBLIC, $500M EV* * Based on median multiples $277M $7.0M $131M $2.8M
  • 8. Advertising RPMs* depend on your ability to deliver a targeted audience $10-40 $1-5 $0.50 - 2 ** Facebook revenue estimate “well over $100m”, Fandango revenue estimated to be “around $50m with half from advertising and half from ticketing” Source: Myspace, Merrill Lynch; Facebook, MSNBC; Fandango, Techcrunch; Traffic, Comscore; Lightspeed Analysis * RPM = Revenue per thousand pageviews, taking into account multiple ad units and all forms of advertising: CPM, CPC and lead gen 600M 126B 524B Annual US PVs $41.67 50M $25M** Fandango $1.03 12B $150M** Facebook $0.52 44B $271M Myspace RPM March US PVs 2007 Revenue Example
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  • 12. Many e-commerce niches are large enough to support $7M in revenue, our illustrative breakeven level Allheart.com – nursing apparel Figleaves.com – lingerie Hats.com – hats Ridegear.com – motorcycle gear Source: Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide, 2006 Edition
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  • 14. Relatively few pure play e-commerce companies have achieved over $271M in annual sales so far Amazon.com Newegg.com Source: Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide, 2006 Edition, Goldman Sachs $8,490M $1,300M $804M $688M $399M $345M Below $271M in 2005 but projected over $271M in 2007 Amazon Newegg Overstock Netflix Drugstore Buy.com Bluenile Peapod VistaPrint Zappos 2005 Revenue Company
  • 15. In 2005, there were at least 227 companies with e-commerce revenues over $25M, but none with multiple websites in this range Source: Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide, 2006 Edition Supplements PC hardware Auto parts Shoes Kitchen goods Plumbing and Lighting Blinds Women’s clothing Beauty Products Sheet Music Products $46M $45M $45M $44M $40M $39M $38M $34M $32M $27M Bodybuilding.com Computer Geeks Parts Train Shoemall Cooking.com Decorative Product Source Blinds.com Shopbop Gloss.com Sheet Music Plus 2005 Revenue Company
  • 16. A number of companies have taken a portfolio approach, building large numbers of stores Source: Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide, 2006 Edition, Company websites bicycletrailers.com, highchairs.com, sparebed.com, suuntowatches.com, tricyclekids.com Niche Retail Aquariumsdirect.com, croquet.com, daybeds.com, hammocks.com, justglobes.com, potracksgalore.com Netshops Pilates-exercise-direct.com, Rowingmachines.com, sofabed-store.com, tennis-ball-machine-guide.com Mercantila homeclick.com, absolutehome.com, barbeques.com, knobsandthings.com, poolclick.com Home Décor Products adirondack-furniture-direct.com, allairbeds.com, bedrooms.com, csnbunkbeds.com, everysafe.com CSN Stores Sample Websites (not exhaustive) Company
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