This document summarizes Alaska's budget challenges and options going forward. It notes that Alaska's budget problem has been building since 2013 due to declining oil revenues. The state budget was based on oil prices of $117/barrel but prices have fallen significantly below that. The document reviews the status of budget bills passed by the legislature and signed by the governor. It outlines four options to address the budget shortfall, including using funds from the Constitutional Budget Reserve or other designated funds. Finally, it argues that Alaska can achieve a long-term sustainable budget of around $4.5 billion by reducing spending and utilizing financial earnings from the Permanent Fund and other assets to supplement declining oil revenues. The coming debate on Alaska's fiscal future will
Brad Keithley presented on Alaska's fiscal challenges with $80-$90 per barrel oil. He noted that declining oil prices and spending growth have created a widening fiscal gap that will lead to a severe crisis after 2023 without action. At $85 oil, Alaska would face a $3.3 billion deficit representing over $4,500 per resident. With a capital budget cut and 10% operating reductions, further 25% cuts would be needed, including to school funding formulas. Long term solutions like restricting spending growth and using permanent fund earnings could help transition Alaska to sustainable budgets beyond the boom-bust cycle.
Alaska faces a serious fiscal challenge due to falling oil revenues from low oil prices. The state is spending over twice as much as its revenues and paying the deficit by drawing down savings, which cannot be sustained. In coming years, Alaska will need to close the large gap between spending and revenues by making significant cuts to spending, enacting new revenues, and/or using earnings from the Permanent Fund. There are no easy choices, as major changes are needed to achieve a balanced budget.
The document discusses trends in oil prices and dependency from 2007-2009. It notes that OPEC aimed to keep prices stable between $70-80 per barrel but that some producing countries were using more oil domestically. Throughout 2008, prices rose to historical highs of $147 per barrel before declining over 60% by the end of the year. The document predicts that prices will continue to fluctuate and generally rise over 6-12 months, affecting consumers and economies worldwide.
This document summarizes Alaska's budget challenges and options going forward. It notes that Alaska's budget problem has been building since 2013 due to declining oil revenues. The state budget was based on oil prices of $117/barrel but prices have fallen significantly below that. The document reviews the status of budget bills passed by the legislature and signed by the governor. It outlines four options to address the budget shortfall, including using funds from the Constitutional Budget Reserve or other designated funds. Finally, it argues that Alaska can achieve a long-term sustainable budget of around $4.5 billion by reducing spending and utilizing financial earnings from the Permanent Fund and other assets to supplement declining oil revenues. The coming debate on Alaska's fiscal future will
Brad Keithley presented on Alaska's fiscal challenges with $80-$90 per barrel oil. He noted that declining oil prices and spending growth have created a widening fiscal gap that will lead to a severe crisis after 2023 without action. At $85 oil, Alaska would face a $3.3 billion deficit representing over $4,500 per resident. With a capital budget cut and 10% operating reductions, further 25% cuts would be needed, including to school funding formulas. Long term solutions like restricting spending growth and using permanent fund earnings could help transition Alaska to sustainable budgets beyond the boom-bust cycle.
Alaska faces a serious fiscal challenge due to falling oil revenues from low oil prices. The state is spending over twice as much as its revenues and paying the deficit by drawing down savings, which cannot be sustained. In coming years, Alaska will need to close the large gap between spending and revenues by making significant cuts to spending, enacting new revenues, and/or using earnings from the Permanent Fund. There are no easy choices, as major changes are needed to achieve a balanced budget.
The document discusses trends in oil prices and dependency from 2007-2009. It notes that OPEC aimed to keep prices stable between $70-80 per barrel but that some producing countries were using more oil domestically. Throughout 2008, prices rose to historical highs of $147 per barrel before declining over 60% by the end of the year. The document predicts that prices will continue to fluctuate and generally rise over 6-12 months, affecting consumers and economies worldwide.
Implementing Governor Hammond's 50/50 Plan (World Trade Center Anchorage 2.22...Brad Keithley
Governor Hammond's "50/50" plan proposes splitting the Alaska Permanent Fund's annual earnings equally between the PFD and essential government services, as Hammond originally intended. Currently, only half goes to the PFD while the other half funds an "inflation proofing" reserve and earnings reserve. Implementing 50/50 could help balance the budget over five years without cutting the PFD or raising taxes, which have severe negative economic impacts by reducing overall Alaska income and increasing poverty and income disparity. There are debates around setting a fixed draw rate from the fund to protect its long-term sustainability.
Implementing Governor Hammond's 50/50 Plan (Fairbanks "Budget Blitz" 2.16.2016)Brad Keithley
A presentation made as part of the Fairbanks "Budget Blitz" co-sponsored by the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce and Fairbanks Economic Development Corporation.
Fiscal cliff deal details and critical appraisalSadaf Shaikh
The document discusses the fiscal cliff faced by the U.S. government at the end of 2012. It provides background on the Budget Control Act of 2011 and the series of disagreements between Democrats and Republicans that led to failure to reach a budget deal. Lawmakers had 3 options: do nothing and let policies take effect, cancel some or all tax increases and spending cuts, or reach a compromise. On January 1, 2013, the Senate agreed to a last-minute deal that increased taxes on individuals making over $400,000 and couples over $450,000 but postponed discussion of spending cuts. The deal provided some short-term certainty but left major long-term issues around the national debt unaddressed.
The document discusses the effects of declining crude oil prices on the oil and gas industries in Canada and Norway. It provides the following key points:
1) Canada and Norway have both seen significant job losses in the oil and gas sector due to falling prices, with an estimated 185,000 jobs lost in Canada and 15,000 lost in Norway so far.
2) Norway is more dependent on oil and gas than Canada, with 239,000 jobs depending on the industry, but Canada has larger overall employment and population to absorb the impacts.
3) Norway has a massive sovereign wealth fund from oil revenues, but the document questions whether this money can actually be rapidly deployed to counter unemployment effects from the price drop
- Thompson Creek Metals provides an investor presentation on its business operations and recent financial results.
- It operates three molybdenum mines and one copper-gold mine, Mt. Milligan, which recently achieved commercial production.
- In Q3 2014, Thompson Creek saw improved safety, increased cash reserves, higher revenues and profits compared to previous quarters as Mt. Milligan continued to ramp up operations.
Thompson Creek Metals Company held an investor conference call on February 20, 2015 to discuss their 2014 financial results. Key highlights included achieving commercial production at Mount Milligan in February 2014, generating positive cash flow from Mount Milligan since Q2 2014, meeting copper and gold production guidance, and significantly improving their financial results and cash balance compared to 2013. Guidance was also provided for 2015 production and costs.
- Claude Resources reported record quarterly gold production of 21,067 ounces in Q1 2015, an 86% increase over Q1 2014, driven by higher grades from the L62 and Santoy Gap deposits.
- Total cash costs per ounce decreased 31% to $675 compared to Q1 2014 and net profit was $5.1 million compared to a $5.1 million loss in Q1 2014.
- The company continues to reduce debt and strengthen its balance sheet while ramping up production at Santoy Gap to achieve 500 tonnes per day and exploring expansion opportunities in its 17,200 hectare land package.
Daily Economic Update for December 13, 2010NAR Research
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose close to a six-month high in anticipation of strong retail sales, reaching 3.32% in December. Mortgage rates are expected to reach 5.0% by early 2011 as the 10-year Treasury and 30-year fixed rates track each other. Oil prices have also climbed with the economic recovery strengthening, with Brent prices hitting $90.85 per barrel in December and WTI closing at $87.79, and prices may surpass $100 per barrel in the first half of next year given growing global markets and the advancing U.S. economy.
Implementing Governor Hammond's "50/50" Plan (updated 1.4.2017)Brad Keithley
This is the previous December 7, 2016 presentation, updated for certain new information after that point. Updated slides are identified in the lower left hand corner.
A presentation to the Alliance Fairbanks Chapter regarding the implementation of the third piece of Governor Hammond's plan for the use of the Permanent Fund (December 7, 2016).
U.S. economic growth is expected to remain steady in 2016, though risks remain. Global growth is slowing, which could impact the U.S. through trade and capital flows pushing up the dollar. Consumer spending and the labor market are improving, but weak productivity growth may limit income gains. Business investment is also expected to increase but risks remain from low oil prices. The Federal Reserve will continue raising rates gradually based on economic data. Residential investment is also expected to strengthen as household formations increase.
The document summarizes the fiscal and economic climate facing Canadian universities and colleges in 2012. It notes that government deficits and debt were high while economic growth was weakening. This meant that federal cash transfers and provincial operating grants to post-secondary institutions would likely decline. Enrollment was increasing but research funding was decreasing. Expenditures were focused on salaries but this was not a major cost driver. The financial health of institutions varied widely based on their specific revenue sources, expenditures, debt levels, and decisions made.
The oil price rebounded 31% over the last three weeks after falling 57% between June 2014 and January 2015. The document analyzes whether further recovery is likely, concluding that technical factors in financial markets explained the recent rebound but are temporary. Fundamental supply adjustments from reduced investment and drilling will impact prices starting in 2016-2017 by gradually clearing the supply glut. The analysis forecasts oil to average $56/barrel in 2015 before rising to $64/barrel in 2016 and $69/barrel in 2017.
The oil price rebounded 31% over the last three weeks after falling 57% between June 2014 and January 2015. The document analyzes whether further recovery is likely, concluding that technical factors in financial markets explained the recent rebound but are temporary. Fundamental supply adjustments from reduced investment and drilling will impact prices gradually from 2016-2017 as production declines. The analysis forecasts oil to average $56/barrel in 2015 before rising to $64/barrel in 2016 and $69/barrel in 2017.
1. The document discusses factors that influence the price of crude oil such as supply and demand balances, the strength of the US dollar, speculative trading of oil futures, and geopolitical risk premiums.
2. It outlines how US monetary and fiscal policies can impact the value of the dollar and lead to higher oil prices. The expansion of electronic trading of oil futures is also discussed.
3. The bursting of an oil price bubble in 2008 is examined, with prices quadrupling despite steady consumption and production levels.
- The presentation provides an overview of Great Panther Silver, a primary silver producer with two operating mines in Mexico and a potential third mine in Peru.
- Great Panther has a strong balance sheet with $53.2 million in cash and no debt, and is maintaining low costs at its Mexican operations while pursuing organic growth opportunities and acquisitions.
- The company plans to acquire the former producing Coricancha mine in Peru, which could provide approximately 3 million silver equivalent ounces per year at full capacity. Great Panther will update resource estimates and conduct a prefeasibility study for Coricancha.
Overview of Fiscal Issues This Coming SessionBrad Keithley
A summary of Alaska's projected fiscal condition as it will be presented to the #AKLeg, the major issues, tools and proposals likely to involved in this session, a look at the "Hammond 50/50" approach and a discussion of how the fact that Alaska is in a recession may play into this session.
Implementing Governor Hammond's 50/50 Plan (World Trade Center Anchorage 2.22...Brad Keithley
Governor Hammond's "50/50" plan proposes splitting the Alaska Permanent Fund's annual earnings equally between the PFD and essential government services, as Hammond originally intended. Currently, only half goes to the PFD while the other half funds an "inflation proofing" reserve and earnings reserve. Implementing 50/50 could help balance the budget over five years without cutting the PFD or raising taxes, which have severe negative economic impacts by reducing overall Alaska income and increasing poverty and income disparity. There are debates around setting a fixed draw rate from the fund to protect its long-term sustainability.
Implementing Governor Hammond's 50/50 Plan (Fairbanks "Budget Blitz" 2.16.2016)Brad Keithley
A presentation made as part of the Fairbanks "Budget Blitz" co-sponsored by the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce and Fairbanks Economic Development Corporation.
Fiscal cliff deal details and critical appraisalSadaf Shaikh
The document discusses the fiscal cliff faced by the U.S. government at the end of 2012. It provides background on the Budget Control Act of 2011 and the series of disagreements between Democrats and Republicans that led to failure to reach a budget deal. Lawmakers had 3 options: do nothing and let policies take effect, cancel some or all tax increases and spending cuts, or reach a compromise. On January 1, 2013, the Senate agreed to a last-minute deal that increased taxes on individuals making over $400,000 and couples over $450,000 but postponed discussion of spending cuts. The deal provided some short-term certainty but left major long-term issues around the national debt unaddressed.
The document discusses the effects of declining crude oil prices on the oil and gas industries in Canada and Norway. It provides the following key points:
1) Canada and Norway have both seen significant job losses in the oil and gas sector due to falling prices, with an estimated 185,000 jobs lost in Canada and 15,000 lost in Norway so far.
2) Norway is more dependent on oil and gas than Canada, with 239,000 jobs depending on the industry, but Canada has larger overall employment and population to absorb the impacts.
3) Norway has a massive sovereign wealth fund from oil revenues, but the document questions whether this money can actually be rapidly deployed to counter unemployment effects from the price drop
- Thompson Creek Metals provides an investor presentation on its business operations and recent financial results.
- It operates three molybdenum mines and one copper-gold mine, Mt. Milligan, which recently achieved commercial production.
- In Q3 2014, Thompson Creek saw improved safety, increased cash reserves, higher revenues and profits compared to previous quarters as Mt. Milligan continued to ramp up operations.
Thompson Creek Metals Company held an investor conference call on February 20, 2015 to discuss their 2014 financial results. Key highlights included achieving commercial production at Mount Milligan in February 2014, generating positive cash flow from Mount Milligan since Q2 2014, meeting copper and gold production guidance, and significantly improving their financial results and cash balance compared to 2013. Guidance was also provided for 2015 production and costs.
- Claude Resources reported record quarterly gold production of 21,067 ounces in Q1 2015, an 86% increase over Q1 2014, driven by higher grades from the L62 and Santoy Gap deposits.
- Total cash costs per ounce decreased 31% to $675 compared to Q1 2014 and net profit was $5.1 million compared to a $5.1 million loss in Q1 2014.
- The company continues to reduce debt and strengthen its balance sheet while ramping up production at Santoy Gap to achieve 500 tonnes per day and exploring expansion opportunities in its 17,200 hectare land package.
Daily Economic Update for December 13, 2010NAR Research
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose close to a six-month high in anticipation of strong retail sales, reaching 3.32% in December. Mortgage rates are expected to reach 5.0% by early 2011 as the 10-year Treasury and 30-year fixed rates track each other. Oil prices have also climbed with the economic recovery strengthening, with Brent prices hitting $90.85 per barrel in December and WTI closing at $87.79, and prices may surpass $100 per barrel in the first half of next year given growing global markets and the advancing U.S. economy.
Implementing Governor Hammond's "50/50" Plan (updated 1.4.2017)Brad Keithley
This is the previous December 7, 2016 presentation, updated for certain new information after that point. Updated slides are identified in the lower left hand corner.
A presentation to the Alliance Fairbanks Chapter regarding the implementation of the third piece of Governor Hammond's plan for the use of the Permanent Fund (December 7, 2016).
U.S. economic growth is expected to remain steady in 2016, though risks remain. Global growth is slowing, which could impact the U.S. through trade and capital flows pushing up the dollar. Consumer spending and the labor market are improving, but weak productivity growth may limit income gains. Business investment is also expected to increase but risks remain from low oil prices. The Federal Reserve will continue raising rates gradually based on economic data. Residential investment is also expected to strengthen as household formations increase.
The document summarizes the fiscal and economic climate facing Canadian universities and colleges in 2012. It notes that government deficits and debt were high while economic growth was weakening. This meant that federal cash transfers and provincial operating grants to post-secondary institutions would likely decline. Enrollment was increasing but research funding was decreasing. Expenditures were focused on salaries but this was not a major cost driver. The financial health of institutions varied widely based on their specific revenue sources, expenditures, debt levels, and decisions made.
The oil price rebounded 31% over the last three weeks after falling 57% between June 2014 and January 2015. The document analyzes whether further recovery is likely, concluding that technical factors in financial markets explained the recent rebound but are temporary. Fundamental supply adjustments from reduced investment and drilling will impact prices starting in 2016-2017 by gradually clearing the supply glut. The analysis forecasts oil to average $56/barrel in 2015 before rising to $64/barrel in 2016 and $69/barrel in 2017.
The oil price rebounded 31% over the last three weeks after falling 57% between June 2014 and January 2015. The document analyzes whether further recovery is likely, concluding that technical factors in financial markets explained the recent rebound but are temporary. Fundamental supply adjustments from reduced investment and drilling will impact prices gradually from 2016-2017 as production declines. The analysis forecasts oil to average $56/barrel in 2015 before rising to $64/barrel in 2016 and $69/barrel in 2017.
1. The document discusses factors that influence the price of crude oil such as supply and demand balances, the strength of the US dollar, speculative trading of oil futures, and geopolitical risk premiums.
2. It outlines how US monetary and fiscal policies can impact the value of the dollar and lead to higher oil prices. The expansion of electronic trading of oil futures is also discussed.
3. The bursting of an oil price bubble in 2008 is examined, with prices quadrupling despite steady consumption and production levels.
- The presentation provides an overview of Great Panther Silver, a primary silver producer with two operating mines in Mexico and a potential third mine in Peru.
- Great Panther has a strong balance sheet with $53.2 million in cash and no debt, and is maintaining low costs at its Mexican operations while pursuing organic growth opportunities and acquisitions.
- The company plans to acquire the former producing Coricancha mine in Peru, which could provide approximately 3 million silver equivalent ounces per year at full capacity. Great Panther will update resource estimates and conduct a prefeasibility study for Coricancha.
Overview of Fiscal Issues This Coming SessionBrad Keithley
A summary of Alaska's projected fiscal condition as it will be presented to the #AKLeg, the major issues, tools and proposals likely to involved in this session, a look at the "Hammond 50/50" approach and a discussion of how the fact that Alaska is in a recession may play into this session.
A presentation to the Alaska Republican Assembly on the results of the past session(s), where that puts Alaska currently and alternatives for dealing with Alaska's fiscal situation going forward.
Presentation to Alaska Policy Frontiers (11.22.2014final)Brad Keithley
The document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation given declining oil prices and revenues. It finds that (1) if oil prices remain around $85, Alaska will face a $3.3 billion deficit draining its savings within 3 years; (2) revenues depend on uncertain oil prices and new production, but even if production increases are realized, taxes or spending cuts will still be needed; and (3) to avoid an economic crisis, Alaska must implement sustainable budgeting that lives within its means through savings to supplement volatile revenues over time.
Musk Ox Coalition letter (May 20, 2015)Brad Keithley
Representatives from the Alaska State Legislature express concerns in a letter to Speaker Chenault regarding a plan to transfer funds from the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve to help fund the FY2016 operating budget. They consulted constituents who have not felt the full impacts of budget cuts or contemplated future sacrifices. Transferring funds from the reserve so suddenly will sow confusion and mistrust among Alaskans and should go before voters. The representatives fear impacts to PFDs cannot be properly evaluated and transferring funds may impact the reserve's role in reaching sustainable budgets and financing a gas line. They do not intend to vote for the plan and urge continuing negotiations to access the Constitutional Budget Reserve.
These are the written comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets submitted to the House Finance Committee on HB 57, the 2017 session Operating Budget.
Presentation to Governor Walker (3.14.2017 final)Brad Keithley
A presentation to Governor Walker and others from the Administration on the state's current fiscal situation, the consequences of various alternatives and on the appropriate way forward. In essence, a subsequent follow up to a presentation made in November 2014 at the opening session of the Walker/Mallott Transition Team (https://goo.gl/57oDuJ).
Dealing with $75 oil (copas 11.17.2014 final)Brad Keithley
The document summarizes Alaska's fiscal challenges with lower oil prices between $75-$90 per barrel. It notes that at $85 oil, Alaska would face a $3.3 billion deficit requiring deep spending cuts. Expenditure reductions of billions will be needed in areas like education, Medicaid, and personnel costs. The state only has savings to cover deficits until 2018-2020 depending on the price. Some proposals include further reducing the capital budget, cutting operating costs 10-25%, and prioritizing spending, but new revenues could only cover a portion of the projected deficits.
Alaska's Fiscal Crisis: The Challenge, the Solution and How to Achieve It (1....Brad Keithley
This document discusses Alaska's fiscal crisis and proposes a solution. It notes that Alaska is projected to run out of savings by 2023 due to declining oil revenues and continued overspending. The proposed solution is to set a sustainable budget level based on expected revenues from the Permanent Fund, oil/gas production, and other sources. The sustainable budget level is estimated at $4.5 billion annually. However, the current budget is $5.9 billion, which is $1.4 billion over the sustainable level. To achieve fiscal sustainability, annual budget reductions of around $500 million are recommended over three years to bring spending in line with expected long-term revenues. The document argues for the governor and legislature to work together to
Gunnar Knapp, An Introduction to Alaska Fiscal Facts and Choices (6.5.2015)Brad Keithley
This document provides an overview of Alaska's fiscal challenges and choices. It summarizes that Alaska faces a large budget deficit due to declining oil revenues from lower prices. It depends heavily on oil revenues and savings reserves to fund spending, but oil income has dropped drastically and reserves may be depleted by 2022 without action. The state must decide whether to cut spending, raise new revenues, or use Permanent Fund earnings to address the gap between spending and declining revenues from oil.
The document provides an update on Alaska's tax credits and revenue projections from the Department of Revenue. It summarizes that the outlook is uncertain due to COVID-19 and volatility in oil prices and the economy. It also discusses the potential impacts of Ballot Measure 1, which would increase oil taxes but decrease producer profits and investments. The measure could more than double tax revenues from the North Slope at current oil prices according to estimates, but also increase uncertainty for producers. Contact information is provided for the Commissioner of Revenue and Chief Economist for any additional questions.
Agcapita February 2012 Briefing - Spare a Moment for the Real EconomyVeripath Partners
“According to the Mercer Pension Health Index, the decline in longterm interest rates over the past six months has brought the funded status of Canadian pension funds near the all-time low reached in 2008 (Chart 20). This index declined from 71 per cent in the second quarter of 2011 to 64 per cent at the end of October, indicating that a representative pension plan faces a higher risk of being unable to fully meet its financial obligations.”
Scott Goldsmith: What Is a Sustainable Draw from the Permanent Fund?Brad Keithley
This document discusses proposals for sustainably drawing from Alaska's Permanent Fund to fund the state government budget. It analyzes drawing different percentages of the fund's total value each year while accounting for factors like population growth, inflation, expected oil revenue declines, and investment returns. The optimal draw rate depends on estimates of Alaska's total resource "endowment" including both financial assets and future expected oil revenues. Scenarios where 4-5% of the total endowment could be drawn annually for decades while sustaining the fund's principal are presented.
The document discusses India's fiscal deficit and weakening economic growth. It notes that direct tax collection growth of 14.43% from April to August fell short of the 18-19% target. Indirect tax growth was only 4.1% compared to the target of 18-19%. Rising global commodity prices and a depreciating rupee are increasing subsidies which will likely exceed the budgeted amount. With the fiscal deficit already reaching 63% of the target for the first four months, containing the deficit at 4.8% of GDP will be extremely difficult. The Finance Minister will need to increase diesel prices, boost tax collection, and cut spending to meet fiscal targets.
Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're HeadedBrad Keithley
The document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation from 2013 to the present and potential options moving forward. From 2013 to 2020, Alaska relied on over $20 billion in additional budget sources including the Constitutional Budget Reserve, Statutory Budget Reserve, and Permanent Fund Dividend diversions. Under current law, from 2021 to 2030 Alaska is projected to face a $1.84 billion annual deficit totaling $18.4 billion. The options presented to address this include spending cuts, taxes, Permanent Fund Dividend cuts, drawing down savings, or a balanced approach of modest spending reductions, new taxes, and Permanent Fund Dividend cuts totaling $1.8 billion annually. Studies show Permanent Fund Divid
The alaska state budget (mat su business alliance 3.21.2014)Brad Keithley
The document discusses Alaska's state budget challenges, including growing spending outpacing falling revenues. It notes that without significant changes, Alaska will face a severe fiscal crisis after 2023 that will lead to an economic crash. To avoid this, the state needs to save more revenue above sustainable spending levels and restrict spending growth. The key drivers of increasing spending are K-12 education, Medicaid, and retirement assistance. The document recommends capping overall spending at sustainable levels and prioritizing programs to fit within the budget. Failing to address unsustainable spending trends will likely lead to a fiscal and economic crisis for Alaska.
Sustainable spending and state of alaska fiscal planning (alaska dialogue 9.1...Brad Keithley
This document discusses two policy options for Alaska's fiscal planning and sustainable spending. Option 1 is a "business as usual" approach that will likely require new taxes like an income tax to be phased in by 2026 due to inadequate revenues to support demands on the state. Option 2 advocates for a "sustainable budget" of $5.5 billion by saving more and restricting spending growth, funneling revenues above that level into savings to avoid an economic crisis. The document notes that delaying changes to shift to a sustainable model will only make addressing the state's fiscal challenges harder for future generations.
CRFB Webinar - Where Do We Stand on the National Debt - june 29 2020CRFBGraphics
On June 29th, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Policy Director Marc Goldwein gave a webinar detailing where the national debt and deficit stand in the post-COVID environment, featuring CRFB's updated 10-year budget projections. This slide deck accompanied that webinar.
The document summarizes Trinidad and Tobago's 2023 budget, including:
- Proposed tax measures like a tax amnesty on penalties/interest up to 2021, waiving VAT on renewable energy equipment for manufacturers, and increasing the personal income tax allowance.
- Macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth of 3% forecast for 2023-2024, inflation at 4.7%, and unemployment at 5.1%.
- Fiscal measures like increasing the VAT registration threshold to $600,000 to provide tax relief for businesses.
The document summarizes the Trinidad and Tobago Budget for 2023. Key points include:
- Higher oil, natural gas, and petrochemical prices contributed to increased government revenue but declining production volumes partially offset this.
- The budget projects a lower fiscal deficit of $2.43 billion compared to an expected $9.1 billion deficit for 2022.
- Unemployment has declined to 5.1% but inflation increased to 4.7% in July 2022.
- The Heritage and Stabilization Fund balance was $5.6 billion in December 2021 with no withdrawals between October 2021-June 2022.
The survey found:
- Executives expressed a pronounced lack of confidence in the Canadian economy, with a 20-point drop in those expecting growth. This is tied to low oil prices, with few expecting prices over $50/barrel until end of 2015.
- Opinions were split on whether Canada is in a recession, but most agree any growth will be slow. The outlook is most pessimistic for Alberta and oil/gas companies.
- Executives think the economy should be the top election issue and support monetary or fiscal stimulus. However, opinions were divided on government spending restraint versus stimulus.
- Most support the Bank of Canada's interest rate cut but some worry it encourages debt. F
The document discusses Alaska's looming fiscal crisis and proposes two policy options to address it. If business continues as usual, Alaska will likely need to institute a broad-based tax like an income tax by 2022-2026 to maintain services due to declining oil revenues. Alternatively, capping annual spending growth at $5.5 billion and saving all additional revenues could avoid a major fiscal and economic crisis by keeping the budget sustainable. The document recommends a two-step approach - capping spending at the sustainable level annually and investing all other revenues long-term to benefit future Alaskans.
Testimony before HRES on South Central GasBrad Keithley
By invitation, we testified before the Alaska House Resources Committee on March 15, 2024, on Southcentral Gas Supply. The presentation was part of the Committee's look into the implications of the challenges currently facing Cook Inlet gas supplies.
The presentation addressed both energy and fiscal policy. Our theme was simple: " Let the market decide" and no subsidies. But if there are subsidies, they should be paid for other than through PFD cuts.
The slide-deck we used is attached here. The hearing itself is available at https://bit.ly/48YyBFf.
Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations ...Brad Keithley
Our September 27, 2022, presentation to the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Govt Relations Comm on Alaska's current fiscal situation and our views on the positions of the candidates for Alaska Governor in response.
Comments in opposition to SB 199 & SB 200 (2.20.2022)Brad Keithley
The comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets in opposition to Senate Finance Committee bills SB 199 & SB 200, which propose to substantially restructure and cut the Permanent Fund Dividend.
HB 202 (HFIN): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable BudgetsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets with the House Finance Committee on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) proposing a restructuring of and cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 202 & HB 37 (Statutory PFD Reductions): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainab...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) & HB 37 (Rep. Wool) proposing (and in the case of HB 37, some substitute revenues to reduce the level of) cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable B...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 189, the House Ways & Means Committee bill which would establish an employment tax for education.
HFIN CS for HB69 (work draft presented 4.23.2021): Comments of Alaskans for S...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HFIN CS for HB69, the House Finance Committee's proposed committee substitute for HB69, the Governor's proposed operating budget.
SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments ...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73), the Governor's proposed Constitutional Amendments relating to the Alaska permanent fund, appropriations from the permanent fund, and the permanent fund dividend.
HJR1 & HB165: Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets CommentsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HJR 1 & HB165, Rep. Kreiss-Tomkin's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
SJR 1 (Guarantee Perm Fund Dividend): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Bu...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR 1, Sen. Wielechowski's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
The Economic Impact on Alaska of Various Fiscal Solutions (4.10.2021)Brad Keithley
This document summarizes several studies on the economic impact of different fiscal solutions for Alaska's budget deficit. The 2016 ISER study examined the impact of options like spending cuts, PFD cuts, and tax increases on income, jobs, distribution across income levels, and regions of Alaska. It found that PFD cuts would have the largest adverse impact on the economy and families. Subsequent ISER studies reinforced that PFDs significantly reduce poverty. A 2019 study argued for reduced spending and analyzed revenue options using static and dynamic models. A 2020 Tax Foundation study argued that certain taxes like sales taxes could have lower economic impact than others, but it provided limited analysis. The presentation concludes by advocating for a flat tax as the best option to
Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Income & Jobs (Supplement to 3.4.2021 Le...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the impact of the PFDcuts discussed there on Alaska income & jobs.
Distributional Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Families by Income Bracke...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the distributional impact by income bracket of the level of PFDcuts discussed there.
Analysis by the Legislative Finance Division of Alaska's fiscal position: how we got here, where we are and where we are headed under various alternatives.
DNR Fall 2020 Production Forecast (1.27.2021)Brad Keithley
The document provides a summary of Alaska's 2020 oil production forecast. It notes that the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted production in 2020, leading to deferred maintenance and interrupted drilling. The forecast expects average 2021 production of 470,000 barrels per day, within the range of 413,000 to 526,000 barrels per day. Currently producing fields will remain the backbone of production, while future projects under development or evaluation could help offset declining output from mature fields over the long term. However, uncertainty increases in longer-term forecasts due to risks associated with new projects.
LegFin: Preliminary Overview of the Governor's FY22 Budget (1.8.2021)Brad Keithley
The document provides a preliminary overview of Alaska's structural budget deficit and the Governor's FY2022 budget proposal. It notes that Alaska has faced nine consecutive years of budget deficits due to declining oil revenue. The Governor's budget reduces spending from the current law baseline through lower agency budgets and partial funding of items like the PFD. It draws funds from the ERA to fully pay the PFD but still faces a small deficit. The 10-year plan aims to balance the budget starting in FY2023 through dividend reductions, spending cuts, and new revenue.
Upcoming Federal Fiscal Deadlines (10.20.2020)Brad Keithley
The document outlines key fiscal and economic deadlines and expirations for 2020 through 2026, including temporary extensions of appropriations, tax provisions, and entitlement programs. Key dates include the expiration of pandemic unemployment programs and various tax extenders at the end of 2020, debt limit suspension ending in July 2021, and trust funds for Medicare, Social Security, and pensions anticipated to be exhausted between 2024-2031 based on Congressional Budget Office projections.
Concord Coalition: The Current US Fiscal Situation (October 2020)Brad Keithley
A chart talk from The Concord Coalition analyzing the fiscal challenges facing the US before COVID, and how the economic impact of COVID and the federal response has made that situation even more difficult.
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptxPragencyuk
Discover the essential tools and strategies for modern PR business success. Learn how to craft compelling news releases, leverage press release sites and news wires, stay updated with PR news, and integrate effective PR practices to enhance your brand's visibility and credibility. Elevate your PR efforts with our comprehensive guide.
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series) The Acolyte. Learn about the influence of the program on the Star Wars world, as well as new characters and story twists.
Walker Mallott Transition Team Presentation (11.21.2014final)
1. Problem has been building
2013 …
“Right now, the state is on a path it can’t sustain. … we do not have enough cash in reserves to avoid a severe fiscal crunch soon after 2023, and with that fiscal crisis will come an economic crash.” --ISER Web Note 14 (2013)
2014…
“The implications of the figures are severe … Failure to reduce the projected deficits will result in a very hard landing--Legislative Finance Division (2014)
1
2. And then this happened …
2014 ANS Price
Jan $105
Mar $111
May $105
FY 2015
Budget Breakeven
$117
Jul 1 $111
Aug 1 $103
Sep 1 $ 97
Oct 1 $ 91
Nov 1 $ 82
Nov18 $ 75
????
The future (2023) is now …
2
3. What does it mean …
$105 $85 oil
• The revenue equivalent of a
40% production decline to
~300,000 b/d
At current spending rates:
• Draining ~$10 million per day
from savings
• $3+ billion (50+%) deficit
(~$4,500 per Alaska man,
woman and child; $18,000
per family of 4)
• Only 3 years of unrestricted
savings (SBR & CBR)
remaining as of June 30, 2015
Statutory and Constitutional
Budget Reserves
$- $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10201620172018201920202021202220232024 Billion$ Start of Fiscal YearCASH RESERVE LIFEAT DIFFERENT OIL PRICES$100$90$80$70
3
4. What lies beyond that …
Future revenue levels depend on …
Key variables we can’t influence
Oil prices
LNG prices
Key variables we can influence, but not control (or better put, the DNR/Congressional “to do” list)
Changes in the production curve
New oil on state lands (conventional & viscous)
LNG
NPRA
OCS (with state royalty sharing)
ANWR
4
5. Ifwe hit the trifecta …
Assumptions …
$105 oil
2% net production decline
Viscous oil: 2020
NPRA: 2020
New Conv Oil: 2020
Gas (@$3.50) 2024
ANWR: 2026
OCS (w/ rs): 2026
Sustainable Spending
$6.52 B
$0$5$10$152016202020242028203220362040UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND(BILLION $) ? PF CORPUS DRAW ? PF INFLATION PROOFING ? PF EARNINGS ? DIVERT PFD TO GF ? INCOME/SALES TAXES ? NATURAL GAS ? NEW OILCASH RESERVECURRENT OIL REVENUESNON OIL REVENUES$0$5$10$15$20$25$302016202020242028203220362040SBR & CBRCASH RESERVE (Billion $) Start of Fiscal Year
5
6. Amiddle case … Assumptions …
$90 oil
3% net production decline
Viscous oil: 2020
NPRA: 2020
New Conv Oil: 2020
Gas (@$1.50) 2024
No near future OCS or
ANWR
Sustainable Spending
$4.49 B
$0$5$10$152016202020242028203220362040UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND(BILLION $) ? PF CORPUS DRAW ? PF INFLATION PROOFING ? PF EARNINGS ? DIVERT PFD TO GF ? INCOME/SALES TAXES ? NATURAL GAS ? NEW OILCASH RESERVECURRENT OIL REVENUESNON OIL REVENUES$0$2$4$6$8$10$122016202020242028203220362040SBR & CBRCASH RESERVE (Billion $) Start of Fiscal Year
6
7. Alow case … Assumptions …
$80 oil
5% net production decline
Viscous oil: 2020
NPRA: 2020
New Conv Oil: 2020
No near future gas, OCS or
ANWR
Sustainable Spending
$2.78 B
$0$5$10$152016202020242028203220362040UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND(BILLION $) ? PF CORPUS DRAW ? PF INFLATION PROOFING ? PF EARNINGS ? DIVERT PFD TO GF ? INCOME/SALES TAXES ? NATURAL GAS ? NEW OILCASH RESERVECURRENT OIL REVENUESNON OIL REVENUES$0$2$4$6$8$10$122016202020242028203220362040SBR & CBRCASH RESERVE (Billion $) Start of Fiscal Year
7
8. How long will low prices last
Uncertain early in the cycle, but now increasing consensus:
EIA NovemberShort Term Economic Outlook
“ … Brent crude oil prices will average $83/bblin 2015, $18/bbllower than forecast in last month's STEO.”
IEA November Oil Market Report
“Our supply and demand forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruption, downward price pressures could build further in the first half of 2015 .... it is increasingly clear that we have begun a new chapter in the history of the oil markets.
Capital Economics (London)
Forecasting $75 per barrel by the end of 2015, $70 by the end of 2016 and “given the current negative sentiment in the market, it is clearly possible that $70 could be hit much sooner ... we believe that lower oil prices are here to stay." 8
9. What is the goal…
“I will make the hard choices necessary for a sounder fiscal future, including putting in place a sustainable budget. I will work to make sure the investment climate in Alaska supports those goals, which includes creating a favorable fiscal climate for citizens and companies investing in our economy.”
–Bill Walker on fiscal responsibility 9
10. The challenge ahead …
Operating Budget:
Formula:$2.2Non-Formula:$2.4
Statewide:$ .7
PERS/TRS$ .3*
Total$5.6
Capital budget:$ .6
Total$6.2
http://www.legfin.state.ak.us/FisSum/FY15-Budget.pdf
FY 2015 Unrestricted General Fund (UGF) Budget
At $85, revenues are only in the range of $3 billion:
What to do about FY 2015, what to do going forward
10
11. The choices ahead …
Spending Cuts
Capital Budget shrinks first (and fast)
Attention will need to turn to the big drivers in the Operating Budget (FY2015):
DEED/ K-12 ($1.4 B)
DHSS/Medicaid ($1.1 B)
O&G tax credits ($.45 B)
University ($.37 B)
Personnel count and cost
Revenue Options
Pulling from savings (depleting the cupboard)
CBR/SBR ($10 B)
Designated reserves ($2.8 B)
PF earnings reserve ($6.7 B)
Annual revenue
Sales/income tax ($1.3 B)
Diversion of PFD ($1.4 B)
Permanent Fund corpus
$47 B, but requires a vote
11