Presentation to Alaska Policy Frontiers (11.22.2014final)Brad Keithley
The document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation given declining oil prices and revenues. It finds that (1) if oil prices remain around $85, Alaska will face a $3.3 billion deficit draining its savings within 3 years; (2) revenues depend on uncertain oil prices and new production, but even if production increases are realized, taxes or spending cuts will still be needed; and (3) to avoid an economic crisis, Alaska must implement sustainable budgeting that lives within its means through savings to supplement volatile revenues over time.
This document summarizes Alaska's budget challenges and options going forward. It notes that Alaska's budget problem has been building since 2013 due to declining oil revenues. The state budget was based on oil prices of $117/barrel but prices have fallen significantly below that. The document reviews the status of budget bills passed by the legislature and signed by the governor. It outlines four options to address the budget shortfall, including using funds from the Constitutional Budget Reserve or other designated funds. Finally, it argues that Alaska can achieve a long-term sustainable budget of around $4.5 billion by reducing spending and utilizing financial earnings from the Permanent Fund and other assets to supplement declining oil revenues. The coming debate on Alaska's fiscal future will
Brad Keithley presented on Alaska's fiscal challenges with $80-$90 per barrel oil. He noted that declining oil prices and spending growth have created a widening fiscal gap that will lead to a severe crisis after 2023 without action. At $85 oil, Alaska would face a $3.3 billion deficit representing over $4,500 per resident. With a capital budget cut and 10% operating reductions, further 25% cuts would be needed, including to school funding formulas. Long term solutions like restricting spending growth and using permanent fund earnings could help transition Alaska to sustainable budgets beyond the boom-bust cycle.
Alaska's Fiscal Crisis: The Challenge, the Solution and How to Achieve It (1....Brad Keithley
This document discusses Alaska's fiscal crisis and proposes a solution. It notes that Alaska is projected to run out of savings by 2023 due to declining oil revenues and continued overspending. The proposed solution is to set a sustainable budget level based on expected revenues from the Permanent Fund, oil/gas production, and other sources. The sustainable budget level is estimated at $4.5 billion annually. However, the current budget is $5.9 billion, which is $1.4 billion over the sustainable level. To achieve fiscal sustainability, annual budget reductions of around $500 million are recommended over three years to bring spending in line with expected long-term revenues. The document argues for the governor and legislature to work together to
Presentation to Alaska Policy Frontiers (11.22.2014final)Brad Keithley
The document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation given declining oil prices and revenues. It finds that (1) if oil prices remain around $85, Alaska will face a $3.3 billion deficit draining its savings within 3 years; (2) revenues depend on uncertain oil prices and new production, but even if production increases are realized, taxes or spending cuts will still be needed; and (3) to avoid an economic crisis, Alaska must implement sustainable budgeting that lives within its means through savings to supplement volatile revenues over time.
This document summarizes Alaska's budget challenges and options going forward. It notes that Alaska's budget problem has been building since 2013 due to declining oil revenues. The state budget was based on oil prices of $117/barrel but prices have fallen significantly below that. The document reviews the status of budget bills passed by the legislature and signed by the governor. It outlines four options to address the budget shortfall, including using funds from the Constitutional Budget Reserve or other designated funds. Finally, it argues that Alaska can achieve a long-term sustainable budget of around $4.5 billion by reducing spending and utilizing financial earnings from the Permanent Fund and other assets to supplement declining oil revenues. The coming debate on Alaska's fiscal future will
Brad Keithley presented on Alaska's fiscal challenges with $80-$90 per barrel oil. He noted that declining oil prices and spending growth have created a widening fiscal gap that will lead to a severe crisis after 2023 without action. At $85 oil, Alaska would face a $3.3 billion deficit representing over $4,500 per resident. With a capital budget cut and 10% operating reductions, further 25% cuts would be needed, including to school funding formulas. Long term solutions like restricting spending growth and using permanent fund earnings could help transition Alaska to sustainable budgets beyond the boom-bust cycle.
Alaska's Fiscal Crisis: The Challenge, the Solution and How to Achieve It (1....Brad Keithley
This document discusses Alaska's fiscal crisis and proposes a solution. It notes that Alaska is projected to run out of savings by 2023 due to declining oil revenues and continued overspending. The proposed solution is to set a sustainable budget level based on expected revenues from the Permanent Fund, oil/gas production, and other sources. The sustainable budget level is estimated at $4.5 billion annually. However, the current budget is $5.9 billion, which is $1.4 billion over the sustainable level. To achieve fiscal sustainability, annual budget reductions of around $500 million are recommended over three years to bring spending in line with expected long-term revenues. The document argues for the governor and legislature to work together to
CRFB Webinar - Who is Buying Our New COVID-19 Debt - May 11, 2020CRFBGraphics
The document summarizes the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the government response. It notes that initial unemployment claims have skyrocketed while the government has spent trillions to stabilize the economy. This massive spending has caused federal debt and deficits to reach unprecedented levels. The Federal Reserve has absorbed almost all new debt issuance through bond purchases, maintaining low interest rates. However, the size and duration of Fed support is uncertain as debt levels rise sharply.
A Way Forward on the Alaska Budget (1.22.2016)Brad Keithley
The document discusses three key points about Alaska's budget challenges:
1. Alaska faces a budget challenge, but the problem may not be as severe as portrayed if more optimistic assumptions are made about oil prices, production levels, and population growth.
2. There is a realistic alternative fiscal plan that balances the budget without cutting the PFD or raising taxes by setting sustainable spending levels and using fund earnings.
3. The Governor's and GCI's proposals to cut the PFD and raise taxes are unnecessary given viable spending cuts, disproportionately impact the private sector, and may ultimately harm Alaska's overall economy more than help it.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget gave an overview of the latest COVID relief deal and how much it will boost incomes and economic growth, and discussed the proposal for $2,000 checks.
Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're HeadedBrad Keithley
The document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation from 2013 to the present and potential options moving forward. From 2013 to 2020, Alaska relied on over $20 billion in additional budget sources including the Constitutional Budget Reserve, Statutory Budget Reserve, and Permanent Fund Dividend diversions. Under current law, from 2021 to 2030 Alaska is projected to face a $1.84 billion annual deficit totaling $18.4 billion. The options presented to address this include spending cuts, taxes, Permanent Fund Dividend cuts, drawing down savings, or a balanced approach of modest spending reductions, new taxes, and Permanent Fund Dividend cuts totaling $1.8 billion annually. Studies show Permanent Fund Divid
Implementing Governor Hammond's 50/50 Plan (Fairbanks "Budget Blitz" 2.16.2016)Brad Keithley
A presentation made as part of the Fairbanks "Budget Blitz" co-sponsored by the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce and Fairbanks Economic Development Corporation.
Overview of Fiscal Issues This Coming SessionBrad Keithley
A summary of Alaska's projected fiscal condition as it will be presented to the #AKLeg, the major issues, tools and proposals likely to involved in this session, a look at the "Hammond 50/50" approach and a discussion of how the fact that Alaska is in a recession may play into this session.
The document summarizes key findings from the Congressional Budget Office's April 2018 baseline report. It finds that trillion dollar deficits will return by 2020 under current policies, driven by recent tax cuts and spending increases. The growing costs of major health and retirement programs, along with rising interest costs on the debt, will cause debt levels to exceed the 50-year historical average as a share of the economy. Trillion dollar annual deficit reduction would be needed to balance the budget by 2028 or stabilize debt levels.
The portfolio currently holds 27 active loans totaling $15.5 million, secured by $30 million in collateral. Previously, 12 loans totaling $2.5 million have been repaid, secured by $4.5 million in collateral. The average loan size is $572,811 with an average LTV of 57% and term of 9.3 months at an interest rate of 12.4%. The fund seeks to generate high returns for investors through short-term real estate lending while minimizing risk.
A presentation to the Alaska Republican Assembly on the results of the past session(s), where that puts Alaska currently and alternatives for dealing with Alaska's fiscal situation going forward.
Fiscal cliff deal details and critical appraisalSadaf Shaikh
The document discusses the fiscal cliff faced by the U.S. government at the end of 2012. It provides background on the Budget Control Act of 2011 and the series of disagreements between Democrats and Republicans that led to failure to reach a budget deal. Lawmakers had 3 options: do nothing and let policies take effect, cancel some or all tax increases and spending cuts, or reach a compromise. On January 1, 2013, the Senate agreed to a last-minute deal that increased taxes on individuals making over $400,000 and couples over $450,000 but postponed discussion of spending cuts. The deal provided some short-term certainty but left major long-term issues around the national debt unaddressed.
A presentation to the Alliance Fairbanks Chapter regarding the implementation of the third piece of Governor Hammond's plan for the use of the Permanent Fund (December 7, 2016).
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget published the only existing comprehensive study to detail and compare the fiscal cost of President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden's campaign agendas. We estimate that both candidates would add trillions to the debt – but in very different ways.
Sustainable spending and state of alaska fiscal planning (alaska dialogue 9.1...Brad Keithley
This document discusses two policy options for Alaska's fiscal planning and sustainable spending. Option 1 is a "business as usual" approach that will likely require new taxes like an income tax to be phased in by 2026 due to inadequate revenues to support demands on the state. Option 2 advocates for a "sustainable budget" of $5.5 billion by saving more and restricting spending growth, funneling revenues above that level into savings to avoid an economic crisis. The document notes that delaying changes to shift to a sustainable model will only make addressing the state's fiscal challenges harder for future generations.
The document discusses various budget gimmicks that allow Congress to circumvent budget rules and create the appearance of fiscal discipline while not actually reducing deficits. It identifies 20 specific gimmicks and categorizes them into assumption gimmicks, manipulating the budget window, discretionary spending gimmicks, and other gimmicks. Examples are provided for many of the gimmicks. The overall document aims to educate about how budget rules are worked around and define technical terms.
Implementing Governor Hammond's "50/50" Plan (updated 1.4.2017)Brad Keithley
This is the previous December 7, 2016 presentation, updated for certain new information after that point. Updated slides are identified in the lower left hand corner.
CRFB Chartbook - Reducing the Tax Gap - 07/14/2021CRFBGraphics
The document discusses estimates of the US tax gap, which is the difference between taxes owed and taxes paid. Some key points:
- The annual tax gap is estimated at around $550 billion for tax year 2019, or about 2.6% of GDP.
- Most of the tax gap comes from underreporting of income, particularly from business income which has little mandatory information reporting.
- Increasing IRS funding for enforcement and expanding information reporting could significantly reduce the tax gap. The Biden plan is estimated to generate over $700 billion in reduced tax gap over 10 years.
This document summarizes a presentation given by Scott Goldsmith on Alaska's economic future and the role of a North Slope natural gas pipeline. It discusses how Alaska's economy is currently dependent on petroleum production and the potential economic benefits of a gas pipeline, including billions in additional state revenue over 30 years. It also examines alternatives to petroleum development and strategies for diversifying Alaska's economy. Charts show projections for gas production, prices, and revenues, demonstrating that a pipeline could help sustain the state budget into the future.
Alaska Natural Resource Month's theme this year is "Dream BIG" and asks Alaskans to learn about the state's natural resources, be creative, be innovative, and dream big about Alaska's future. The document provides information about Alaska's major natural resources which include oil and gas, mining, forestry, fisheries, and tourism. It also describes the partnership between Alaska Natural Resource Month and Junior Achievement Alaska to bring educational resources and activities to students statewide during the month of March, including Discovery Day on March 13th, the anniversary of the Prudhoe Bay oil discovery.
CRFB Webinar - Who is Buying Our New COVID-19 Debt - May 11, 2020CRFBGraphics
The document summarizes the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the government response. It notes that initial unemployment claims have skyrocketed while the government has spent trillions to stabilize the economy. This massive spending has caused federal debt and deficits to reach unprecedented levels. The Federal Reserve has absorbed almost all new debt issuance through bond purchases, maintaining low interest rates. However, the size and duration of Fed support is uncertain as debt levels rise sharply.
A Way Forward on the Alaska Budget (1.22.2016)Brad Keithley
The document discusses three key points about Alaska's budget challenges:
1. Alaska faces a budget challenge, but the problem may not be as severe as portrayed if more optimistic assumptions are made about oil prices, production levels, and population growth.
2. There is a realistic alternative fiscal plan that balances the budget without cutting the PFD or raising taxes by setting sustainable spending levels and using fund earnings.
3. The Governor's and GCI's proposals to cut the PFD and raise taxes are unnecessary given viable spending cuts, disproportionately impact the private sector, and may ultimately harm Alaska's overall economy more than help it.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget gave an overview of the latest COVID relief deal and how much it will boost incomes and economic growth, and discussed the proposal for $2,000 checks.
Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're HeadedBrad Keithley
The document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation from 2013 to the present and potential options moving forward. From 2013 to 2020, Alaska relied on over $20 billion in additional budget sources including the Constitutional Budget Reserve, Statutory Budget Reserve, and Permanent Fund Dividend diversions. Under current law, from 2021 to 2030 Alaska is projected to face a $1.84 billion annual deficit totaling $18.4 billion. The options presented to address this include spending cuts, taxes, Permanent Fund Dividend cuts, drawing down savings, or a balanced approach of modest spending reductions, new taxes, and Permanent Fund Dividend cuts totaling $1.8 billion annually. Studies show Permanent Fund Divid
Implementing Governor Hammond's 50/50 Plan (Fairbanks "Budget Blitz" 2.16.2016)Brad Keithley
A presentation made as part of the Fairbanks "Budget Blitz" co-sponsored by the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce and Fairbanks Economic Development Corporation.
Overview of Fiscal Issues This Coming SessionBrad Keithley
A summary of Alaska's projected fiscal condition as it will be presented to the #AKLeg, the major issues, tools and proposals likely to involved in this session, a look at the "Hammond 50/50" approach and a discussion of how the fact that Alaska is in a recession may play into this session.
The document summarizes key findings from the Congressional Budget Office's April 2018 baseline report. It finds that trillion dollar deficits will return by 2020 under current policies, driven by recent tax cuts and spending increases. The growing costs of major health and retirement programs, along with rising interest costs on the debt, will cause debt levels to exceed the 50-year historical average as a share of the economy. Trillion dollar annual deficit reduction would be needed to balance the budget by 2028 or stabilize debt levels.
The portfolio currently holds 27 active loans totaling $15.5 million, secured by $30 million in collateral. Previously, 12 loans totaling $2.5 million have been repaid, secured by $4.5 million in collateral. The average loan size is $572,811 with an average LTV of 57% and term of 9.3 months at an interest rate of 12.4%. The fund seeks to generate high returns for investors through short-term real estate lending while minimizing risk.
A presentation to the Alaska Republican Assembly on the results of the past session(s), where that puts Alaska currently and alternatives for dealing with Alaska's fiscal situation going forward.
Fiscal cliff deal details and critical appraisalSadaf Shaikh
The document discusses the fiscal cliff faced by the U.S. government at the end of 2012. It provides background on the Budget Control Act of 2011 and the series of disagreements between Democrats and Republicans that led to failure to reach a budget deal. Lawmakers had 3 options: do nothing and let policies take effect, cancel some or all tax increases and spending cuts, or reach a compromise. On January 1, 2013, the Senate agreed to a last-minute deal that increased taxes on individuals making over $400,000 and couples over $450,000 but postponed discussion of spending cuts. The deal provided some short-term certainty but left major long-term issues around the national debt unaddressed.
A presentation to the Alliance Fairbanks Chapter regarding the implementation of the third piece of Governor Hammond's plan for the use of the Permanent Fund (December 7, 2016).
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget published the only existing comprehensive study to detail and compare the fiscal cost of President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden's campaign agendas. We estimate that both candidates would add trillions to the debt – but in very different ways.
Sustainable spending and state of alaska fiscal planning (alaska dialogue 9.1...Brad Keithley
This document discusses two policy options for Alaska's fiscal planning and sustainable spending. Option 1 is a "business as usual" approach that will likely require new taxes like an income tax to be phased in by 2026 due to inadequate revenues to support demands on the state. Option 2 advocates for a "sustainable budget" of $5.5 billion by saving more and restricting spending growth, funneling revenues above that level into savings to avoid an economic crisis. The document notes that delaying changes to shift to a sustainable model will only make addressing the state's fiscal challenges harder for future generations.
The document discusses various budget gimmicks that allow Congress to circumvent budget rules and create the appearance of fiscal discipline while not actually reducing deficits. It identifies 20 specific gimmicks and categorizes them into assumption gimmicks, manipulating the budget window, discretionary spending gimmicks, and other gimmicks. Examples are provided for many of the gimmicks. The overall document aims to educate about how budget rules are worked around and define technical terms.
Implementing Governor Hammond's "50/50" Plan (updated 1.4.2017)Brad Keithley
This is the previous December 7, 2016 presentation, updated for certain new information after that point. Updated slides are identified in the lower left hand corner.
CRFB Chartbook - Reducing the Tax Gap - 07/14/2021CRFBGraphics
The document discusses estimates of the US tax gap, which is the difference between taxes owed and taxes paid. Some key points:
- The annual tax gap is estimated at around $550 billion for tax year 2019, or about 2.6% of GDP.
- Most of the tax gap comes from underreporting of income, particularly from business income which has little mandatory information reporting.
- Increasing IRS funding for enforcement and expanding information reporting could significantly reduce the tax gap. The Biden plan is estimated to generate over $700 billion in reduced tax gap over 10 years.
This document summarizes a presentation given by Scott Goldsmith on Alaska's economic future and the role of a North Slope natural gas pipeline. It discusses how Alaska's economy is currently dependent on petroleum production and the potential economic benefits of a gas pipeline, including billions in additional state revenue over 30 years. It also examines alternatives to petroleum development and strategies for diversifying Alaska's economy. Charts show projections for gas production, prices, and revenues, demonstrating that a pipeline could help sustain the state budget into the future.
Alaska Natural Resource Month's theme this year is "Dream BIG" and asks Alaskans to learn about the state's natural resources, be creative, be innovative, and dream big about Alaska's future. The document provides information about Alaska's major natural resources which include oil and gas, mining, forestry, fisheries, and tourism. It also describes the partnership between Alaska Natural Resource Month and Junior Achievement Alaska to bring educational resources and activities to students statewide during the month of March, including Discovery Day on March 13th, the anniversary of the Prudhoe Bay oil discovery.
This document discusses natural gas supply and demand in Alaska. It outlines the main natural gas sources as Cook Inlet, the North Slope, and potential imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). The key markets are Southcentral Alaska, Fairbanks, coastal regions including Southeast Alaska, and rural Alaska. The document provides an overview of the history of efforts to develop Alaska's vast North Slope gas resources and outlines the current outlook for each market depending on whether the proposed Alaska LNG project is approved.
This document outlines the key steps for starting an organizational excellence journey based on the Baldrige model. It discusses Ben Park's background working with Baldrige and provides an overview of the Baldrige Organizational model. The rest of the document details the initial 10 steps to begin the process, including developing a mission statement, identifying stakeholders, setting goals and strategies, evaluating processes, creating a balanced scorecard, and developing a strategic plan and communication plan. It concludes by discussing applying for Baldrige recognition.
Presentation given at the 2012 Alaska LNG Summit by Mark Myers, Vice Chancellor Research University of Alaska Fairbanks & former Director of U.S. Geological Survey.• US market transformation: Low gas prices and declining import needs of Lower 48.
• Valdez LNG economics and global gas demand forecasts
• Post-Fukushima: Asia in need of an energy alternative and the Alaskan LNG answer – how does Valdez LNG compare to Japan’s gas supply alternatives?
• Growing interest in LNG exports from the USA: market opportunities
• A spotlight on Alaska’s vast energy resources – tapping into a giant
Developing Alaska's Oil Resources: Economic Challenges and Opportunities (2.4...Brad Keithley
A presentation from February 2013 before the Alaska Senate Resources Committee as they opened hearings on the competitiveness of Alaskan's then oil tax structure.
These are the written comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets submitted to the House Finance Committee on HB 57, the 2017 session Operating Budget.
Implementing Governor Hammond's 50/50 Plan (World Trade Center Anchorage 2.22...Brad Keithley
Governor Hammond's "50/50" plan proposes splitting the Alaska Permanent Fund's annual earnings equally between the PFD and essential government services, as Hammond originally intended. Currently, only half goes to the PFD while the other half funds an "inflation proofing" reserve and earnings reserve. Implementing 50/50 could help balance the budget over five years without cutting the PFD or raising taxes, which have severe negative economic impacts by reducing overall Alaska income and increasing poverty and income disparity. There are debates around setting a fixed draw rate from the fund to protect its long-term sustainability.
Dealing with $75 oil (copas 11.17.2014 final)Brad Keithley
The document summarizes Alaska's fiscal challenges with lower oil prices between $75-$90 per barrel. It notes that at $85 oil, Alaska would face a $3.3 billion deficit requiring deep spending cuts. Expenditure reductions of billions will be needed in areas like education, Medicaid, and personnel costs. The state only has savings to cover deficits until 2018-2020 depending on the price. Some proposals include further reducing the capital budget, cutting operating costs 10-25%, and prioritizing spending, but new revenues could only cover a portion of the projected deficits.
Alaska faces a serious fiscal challenge due to falling oil revenues from low oil prices. The state is spending over twice as much as its revenues and paying the deficit by drawing down savings, which cannot be sustained. In coming years, Alaska will need to close the large gap between spending and revenues by making significant cuts to spending, enacting new revenues, and/or using earnings from the Permanent Fund. There are no easy choices, as major changes are needed to achieve a balanced budget.
Gunnar Knapp, An Introduction to Alaska Fiscal Facts and Choices (6.5.2015)Brad Keithley
This document provides an overview of Alaska's fiscal challenges and choices. It summarizes that Alaska faces a large budget deficit due to declining oil revenues from lower prices. It depends heavily on oil revenues and savings reserves to fund spending, but oil income has dropped drastically and reserves may be depleted by 2022 without action. The state must decide whether to cut spending, raise new revenues, or use Permanent Fund earnings to address the gap between spending and declining revenues from oil.
The document provides an update on Alaska's tax credits and revenue projections from the Department of Revenue. It summarizes that the outlook is uncertain due to COVID-19 and volatility in oil prices and the economy. It also discusses the potential impacts of Ballot Measure 1, which would increase oil taxes but decrease producer profits and investments. The measure could more than double tax revenues from the North Slope at current oil prices according to estimates, but also increase uncertainty for producers. Contact information is provided for the Commissioner of Revenue and Chief Economist for any additional questions.
The alaska state budget (mat su business alliance 3.21.2014)Brad Keithley
The document discusses Alaska's state budget challenges, including growing spending outpacing falling revenues. It notes that without significant changes, Alaska will face a severe fiscal crisis after 2023 that will lead to an economic crash. To avoid this, the state needs to save more revenue above sustainable spending levels and restrict spending growth. The key drivers of increasing spending are K-12 education, Medicaid, and retirement assistance. The document recommends capping overall spending at sustainable levels and prioritizing programs to fit within the budget. Failing to address unsustainable spending trends will likely lead to a fiscal and economic crisis for Alaska.
The document discusses Alaska's looming fiscal crisis and proposes two policy options to address it. If business continues as usual, Alaska will likely need to institute a broad-based tax like an income tax by 2022-2026 to maintain services due to declining oil revenues. Alternatively, capping annual spending growth at $5.5 billion and saving all additional revenues could avoid a major fiscal and economic crisis by keeping the budget sustainable. The document recommends a two-step approach - capping spending at the sustainable level annually and investing all other revenues long-term to benefit future Alaskans.
Fiscal Year 2011-2012 is referred to as the "Cliff Year" because Louisiana faces a $1.6 billion budget shortfall that will be difficult to address. Over 90% of Louisiana's $25.5 billion budget is protected from cuts, so the shortfall must be absorbed by discretionary funding, resulting in cuts over 60% to affected departments. The shortfall is projected to continue through FY2015 even with strong revenue growth, necessitating permanent budget cuts or revenue increases. Addressing the shortfall will require politically difficult decisions about taxes, fees, dedications or expenditures.
Fiscal Year 2011-2012 is referred to as the "Cliff Year" because Louisiana faces a $1.6 billion budget shortfall that will be difficult to address. While the total state budget is $25.5 billion, over 90% of funds are restricted or dedicated, leaving only $2.6 billion of discretionary general funds. Absorbing the entire $1.6 billion shortfall from this unrestricted portion would require cutting it by over 60%. Options to help close the gap include increasing some fees, cutting some statutory dedications, and reducing some unprotected non-discretionary spending, though many of these options are politically challenging.
The document summarizes the Austin Independent School District's budget outlook and challenges for fiscal year 2012. It notes declining local property values and expected state funding cuts of $2-5 billion. This would result in a budget shortfall for AISD of $94-114 million. To close this gap, AISD proposes reductions like increasing class sizes, employee furloughs, and using $31 million of its fund balance, with more cuts needed if state funding is reduced further. Maintaining adequate fund balance is important for the district's credit rating and borrowing ability.
Agcapita February 2012 Briefing - Spare a Moment for the Real EconomyVeripath Partners
“According to the Mercer Pension Health Index, the decline in longterm interest rates over the past six months has brought the funded status of Canadian pension funds near the all-time low reached in 2008 (Chart 20). This index declined from 71 per cent in the second quarter of 2011 to 64 per cent at the end of October, indicating that a representative pension plan faces a higher risk of being unable to fully meet its financial obligations.”
The CBO January baseline report projects that trillion-dollar deficits will return and the national debt will continue rising rapidly as a percentage of GDP. The president's FY2017 budget aims to stabilize the debt ratio by proposing $3.2 trillion in tax increases and $445 billion in health care savings to pay for $1.25 trillion in new spending initiatives and sequester relief. However, the budget would still leave debt levels at post-WWII record highs without putting debt on a clear downward path or sufficiently addressing entitlement reforms.
Claude Resources Inc. Q4 and 2015 Annual Conference Call and Webcast Presenta...Marc Lepage, CPIR
- Claude Resources reported record gold production and earnings in 2015, with production increasing 20% over 2014 and net earnings improving by $27.7 million.
- Key drivers of the strong performance were higher mill head grades from the Santoy Gap ore body and improved mining methods.
- The company has a strong balance sheet with $39.8 million in cash and bullion as of December 31, 2015, and is focused on expanding reserves and resources through its 2016 drilling programs.
This document discusses a debate about whether federal R&D spending should be cut to help reduce the deficit. The main points made against cutting R&D are:
1. Cutting federal R&D funding will not guarantee that taxes remain the same or provide enough savings to meaningfully impact social programs or the deficit.
2. Cutbacks to R&D funding can have negative effects on agencies and universities through fewer grants and reduced funding levels.
3. Critical innovations that drive economic growth and competitiveness could be delayed or not developed if R&D funding is cut, potentially weakening the economy.
4. Reducing U.S. investment in R&D risks falling behind other nations that
The document discusses India's fiscal deficit and weakening economic growth. It notes that direct tax collection growth of 14.43% from April to August fell short of the 18-19% target. Indirect tax growth was only 4.1% compared to the target of 18-19%. Rising global commodity prices and a depreciating rupee are increasing subsidies which will likely exceed the budgeted amount. With the fiscal deficit already reaching 63% of the target for the first four months, containing the deficit at 4.8% of GDP will be extremely difficult. The Finance Minister will need to increase diesel prices, boost tax collection, and cut spending to meet fiscal targets.
The document summarizes Trinidad and Tobago's 2023 budget, including:
- Proposed tax measures like a tax amnesty on penalties/interest up to 2021, waiving VAT on renewable energy equipment for manufacturers, and increasing the personal income tax allowance.
- Macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth of 3% forecast for 2023-2024, inflation at 4.7%, and unemployment at 5.1%.
- Fiscal measures like increasing the VAT registration threshold to $600,000 to provide tax relief for businesses.
The document summarizes the Trinidad and Tobago Budget for 2023. Key points include:
- Higher oil, natural gas, and petrochemical prices contributed to increased government revenue but declining production volumes partially offset this.
- The budget projects a lower fiscal deficit of $2.43 billion compared to an expected $9.1 billion deficit for 2022.
- Unemployment has declined to 5.1% but inflation increased to 4.7% in July 2022.
- The Heritage and Stabilization Fund balance was $5.6 billion in December 2021 with no withdrawals between October 2021-June 2022.
Rexnord Corporation (RXN) Second Quarter 2016 Earnings ReleaseRexnord
Rexnord reported second quarter 2016 earnings. Core sales declined 6% year-over-year due to weaker demand in US general industrial and distribution markets, though water end markets remained strong. Adjusted EPS was $0.34. For full year 2016, Rexnord is resetting its adjusted EPS guidance range to $1.43-1.48, reflecting actions to optimize supply chains and reposition footprints in response to industrial volatility.
CCPA Research Associate Jim Stanford's presentation of his analysis of the Drummond report's fiscal and economic projections.
February 16 2012, Toronto
CCPA-Ontario “Deconstructing Drummond” Workshop
Similar to Fiscal presentation (12.8.2014final) (20)
Testimony before HRES on South Central GasBrad Keithley
By invitation, we testified before the Alaska House Resources Committee on March 15, 2024, on Southcentral Gas Supply. The presentation was part of the Committee's look into the implications of the challenges currently facing Cook Inlet gas supplies.
The presentation addressed both energy and fiscal policy. Our theme was simple: " Let the market decide" and no subsidies. But if there are subsidies, they should be paid for other than through PFD cuts.
The slide-deck we used is attached here. The hearing itself is available at https://bit.ly/48YyBFf.
Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations ...Brad Keithley
Our September 27, 2022, presentation to the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Govt Relations Comm on Alaska's current fiscal situation and our views on the positions of the candidates for Alaska Governor in response.
Comments in opposition to SB 199 & SB 200 (2.20.2022)Brad Keithley
The comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets in opposition to Senate Finance Committee bills SB 199 & SB 200, which propose to substantially restructure and cut the Permanent Fund Dividend.
HB 202 (HFIN): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable BudgetsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets with the House Finance Committee on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) proposing a restructuring of and cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 202 & HB 37 (Statutory PFD Reductions): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainab...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) & HB 37 (Rep. Wool) proposing (and in the case of HB 37, some substitute revenues to reduce the level of) cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable B...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 189, the House Ways & Means Committee bill which would establish an employment tax for education.
HFIN CS for HB69 (work draft presented 4.23.2021): Comments of Alaskans for S...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HFIN CS for HB69, the House Finance Committee's proposed committee substitute for HB69, the Governor's proposed operating budget.
SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments ...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73), the Governor's proposed Constitutional Amendments relating to the Alaska permanent fund, appropriations from the permanent fund, and the permanent fund dividend.
HJR1 & HB165: Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets CommentsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HJR 1 & HB165, Rep. Kreiss-Tomkin's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
SJR 1 (Guarantee Perm Fund Dividend): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Bu...Brad Keithley
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1. Alaska Fiscal Policy: Where are we headed
ENERGY MARKETS & REGULATION IN ALASKA
ANCHORAGE, AK
DECEMBER 8, 2014
Brad Keithley
President, Keithley Consulting
bgkeithley.com
2. Problem has been building
2013 …
“Right now, the state is on a path it can’t sustain. … we do not have enough cash in reserves to avoid a severe fiscal crunch soon after 2023, and with that fiscal crisis will come an economic crash.” --ISER Web Note 14 (2013)
2014…
“The implications of the figures are severe … Failure to reduce the projected deficits will result in a very hard landing--Legislative Finance Division (2014)
2
3. And then this happened …
2014 ANS Price
Jan $105
Mar $111
May $105
FY 2015
Budget Breakeven
$117
Jul 1 $111
Aug 1 $103
Sep 1 $ 97
Oct 1 $ 91
Nov 1 $ 82
Dec 1 $ 70
????
The future (2023) is now …
3
4. What does it mean …
$105 $85 oil
• The revenue equivalent of a
40% production decline to
~300,000 b/d
At current spending rates:
• Draining ~$10 million per day
from savings
• $3+ billion (50+%) deficit
(~$4,500 per Alaska man,
woman and child; $18,000
per family of 4)
• Only 3 years of unrestricted
savings (SBR & CBR)
remaining as of June 30, 2015
Statutory and Constitutional
Budget Reserves
$- $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10201620172018201920202021202220232024 Billion$ Start of Fiscal YearCASH RESERVE LIFEAT DIFFERENT OIL PRICES$100$90$80$70
4
5. What’s ahead …
Future revenue levels depend on …
Key variables we can’t influence
Oil prices
LNG prices
Key variables we can influence, but not control (or better put, the DNR/Congressional “to do” list)
Changes in the production curve
New oil on state lands (conventional & viscous)
LNG
NPRA
OCS (with royalty sharing)
ANWR
5
6. Ifwe hit the trifecta …
Assumptions …
$105 oil
2% production decline
Viscous oil: 2020
NPRA: 2020
New Conv Oil: 2020
Gas (@$3.50) 2024
OCS: 2026
ANWR: 2026
Sustainable Spending
$6.52 B
$0$5$10$152016202020242028203220362040UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND(BILLION $) ? PF CORPUS DRAW ? PF INFLATION PROOFING ? PF EARNINGS ? DIVERT PFD TO GF ? INCOME/SALES TAXES ? NATURAL GAS ? NEW OILCASH RESERVECURRENT OIL REVENUESNON OIL REVENUES$0$5$10$15$20$25$302016202020242028203220362040SBR & CBRCASH RESERVE (Billion $) Start of Fiscal Year
6
7. Amiddle case …
Assumptions …
$90 oil
3% production decline
Viscous oil: 2020
NPRA: 2020
New Conv Oil: 2020
Gas (@$1.50) 2024
No near future OCS or
ANWR
Sustainable Spending
$4.49 B
$0$5$10$152016202020242028203220362040UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND(BILLION $) ? PF CORPUS DRAW ? PF INFLATION PROOFING ? PF EARNINGS ? DIVERT PFD TO GF ? INCOME/SALES TAXES ? NATURAL GAS ? NEW OILCASH RESERVECURRENT OIL REVENUESNON OIL REVENUES$0$2$4$6$8$10$122016202020242028203220362040SBR & CBRCASH RESERVE (Billion $) Start of Fiscal Year
7
8. Alow case …
Assumptions …
$80 oil
5% production decline
Viscous oil: 2020
NPRA: 2020
New Conv Oil: 2020
No near future gas, OCS or
ANWR
Sustainable Spending
$2.78 B
$0$5$10$152016202020242028203220362040UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND(BILLION $) ? PF CORPUS DRAW ? PF INFLATION PROOFING ? PF EARNINGS ? DIVERT PFD TO GF ? INCOME/SALES TAXES ? NATURAL GAS ? NEW OILCASH RESERVECURRENT OIL REVENUESNON OIL REVENUES$0$2$4$6$8$10$122016202020242028203220362040SBR & CBRCASH RESERVE (Billion $) Start of Fiscal Year
8
9. What are the alternatives …
If we don’t hit the trifecta … all middle and low cases will require one or more of the following:
“… reducing expenditures… institution of a broad-based tax, and use of a portion of the earnings of the Permanent Fund ….”
Northern Economics and ISER, Potential National-Level Benefits of Alaska OCS Development (2011)
9
10. What is the starting point …
Parnell “work in progress” FY 2016 budget:
$5.5 billion in spending, but no contribution to PERS/TRS ($5.85 billion with PERS/TRS included)
Limited reductions to operating budget
Balances at $120 oil
Results
At $67 oil, $2.3 billion in revenues, $3.2 billion deficit
At $85 oil, $2.9 billion in revenues, $2.6 billion deficit
Unrestricted savings: ~$10 billion at the start of FY 2016
Roughly 3 years at current spending rates, counting PERS/TRS adjustment
10
11. What is the goal…
“I will make the hard choices necessary for a sounder fiscal future, including putting in place a sustainable budget. I will work to make sure the investment climate in Alaska supports those goals, which includes creating a favorable fiscal climate for citizens and companies investing in our economy.”
–Bill Walker on fiscal responsibility 11
12. Reducing expenditures …
Operating Budget:
Formula:$2.2Non-Formula:$2.4
Statewide:$ .7
PERS/TRS$ .3*
Total$5.6
Capital budget:$ .6
Total$6.2
http://www.legfin.state.ak.us/FisSum/FY15-Budget.pdf
FY 2015 Unrestricted General Fund (UGF) Budget
Remember, at $85, revenues are only in the range of $3 billion
12
13. Where will the focus need to be …
Capital Budget shrinks first (and fast)
Attention will need to turn to the big drivers in the Operating Budget (FY2015):
DEED/ K-12 ($1.4 B)
DHSS/Medicaid ($1.1 B)
O&G tax credits ($.62 B)
University ($.37 B)
Personnel count and cost
13
14. Additional facts …
Additional cash reserves
Designated reserves: $2.8 billion (accessible through legislative action, but will reduce endowments)
PF earnings reserve:$6.7 billion (est. July 1, 2015, accessible through legislative action, but will reduce PFD)
Potential revenue generating options
Sales/income tax: $1.3 billion (~$1800 per capita)
Diversion of PFD: $1.4 billion (~$1900 per capita)
Permanent Fund corpus
$47 billion (est. July 1, 2015, but accessible only upon vote of the people)
14
15. A word about other options
“Increase taxes on other industries” (mining, fish, tourism)
ISER studies repeatedly demonstrate limited revenue impact to state and potential harm to investment
“Invest in economic diversification”
To be helpful in meeting budget shortfalls, investment has to produce revenue to the state (i.e., through taxes)
Other than the LNG line (possibly), no realistic options currently on the table
Limited cash to invest, long history of failures
Change Permanent Fund investment mix to increase potential return
Potentialcomes at increased risk
15
16. Where are we headed …
Spending since 2000
Knowles: $2.37 billion
Murkowski: $3.28 billion
Palin: $5.35 billion
Parnell: $6.73 billion
Walker: ???
16