1) The societal context for higher education is changing rapidly due to factors like population aging, digitalization, and changing skill needs. 2) While higher education participation and qualifications have increased, basic competencies in populations have not improved and there remains a risk of low literacy even among graduates. 3) Digitalization will gradually undermine the value and lifetime of qualifications, but will also stimulate lifelong learning in new forms across people's lives, requiring higher education institutions to adapt more profoundly than just integrating technology into education.

1. VOORUITZIEND TOEZICHT: DE
VERANDERENDE OPDRACHT VAN
HOGESCHOLEN ONDERSTEUNEN
Dirk Van Damme
OECD/EDU

2. DE MAATSCHAPPELIJKE
CONTEXT VOOR HOGER
ONDERWIJS VERANDERT SNEL
2

3. 3
Ageing Populations
Global Economic Integration
International
inequality
Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage
Changing balance of global power
More satisfied with life?
Lower voter turnout
Skills mismatch
Women in the
labour market
More diverse families, generally
smaller and with older parents
Almost ubiquitous access and use of computing and the Internet
Digitalisation
Knowledge-intensive Economies
Migration and
mobility
Urban life
Obesity epidemic
Mega-trends…
Austerity

4. 4
…en systeemrisico’s wijzigen de context

5. met name de digitale transitie
Cloud computing
Blockchain
Artificial
intelligence
3D printing
Big data
Internet of Things
Robotics
Mixed reality
Synthetic biology

6. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Below upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary
Stuwt participatie & kwalificatie omhoog
6
Relative share of attainment levels,
25-34 y-olds, OECD – 2000-2020
47
26

7. Maar wijzigt ook de inhoud en doelen van onderwijs
omwille van nieuwe competentie-noden
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine
interpersonal
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution (US)
7

8. …affecting skills demand…
8

9. 9
Onderwijs verandert traag
Inspired by “The race between t
echnology and education”
Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)
Industrial revolution
Digital revolution Social pain
Universal
public schooling
Technology
Education
Prosperity
Social pain
Prosperity

10. MAAR IS ‘MEER VAN
HETZELFDE’ HET BESTE
ANTWOORD?
10

11. De economische waarde van een HO-
kwalificatie blijft belangrijk, in de meeste landen
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Sweden
Estonia
Norway
Denmark
Finland
Greece
Belgium
NewZealand
Australia
Korea
Italy
Canada
Latvia
Netherlands
Switzerland
Japan
Spain
UnitedKingdom
Austria
France
OECDaverage
Luxembourg
Israel
Poland
Ireland
Germany
Turkey
Portugal
CzechRepublic
SlovakRepublic
Slovenia
UnitedStates
Lithuania
Hungary
Mexico
CostaRica
Colombia
Chile
Brazil
Earning disadvantage of adults with below upper secondary education Earning advantage of adults with tertiary education
Index
11

12. Maar wellicht ook omwille van polarizatie
(“squeezing out the middle class”)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Southern
Europe
Northern EuropeWestern Europe Total North America Japan Central Europe
Low skill Middle skill High skill
12

13. 13
Polarizatie
Employment opportunities by typical education requirements of occupations, historical and projected, in OECD-
EU countries
Shares of employment growth
Source: OECD calculations based on CEDEFOP (2017), EU-CEDEFOP database: Employment trends

14. MEER MENSEN
GEKWALIFICEERD, MAAR OOK
MEER MENSEN COMPETENT?
14

15. Meer mensen hogerschoold heeft niet geleid tot
betere basiscompetenties in de bevolking
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
Level 1
and Below
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4-5
PIAAC
IALS
15

16. Hoger onderwijs schermt niet noodzakelijk af
van risico’s van laaggeletterdheid
16

17. Ondanks Bologna toch erg grote verschillen
in ‘skills-equivalent’ van kwalificaties
17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Japan
Finland
Netherlands
Sweden
Australia
Norway
Flanders(Belgium)
England/N.Ireland…
UnitedStates
CzechRepublic
Average
Poland
Canada
Austria
Germany
Ireland
France
Denmark
Estonia
SlovakRepublic
Korea
RussianFederation
Spain
Italy
Tertiary education
Below upper secondary education
Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education
%
Proportion of 25-64 year-olds scoring at PIAAC numeracy level 4 and 5, by educational attainment of the population

18. Ondanks Bologna toch erg grote verschillen
in ‘skills-equivalent’ van kwalificaties
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
Tertiary Less than upper secondary Upper secondary
Skill proficiency by attainment level, 25-34y olds
18

19. Risico van over-kwalificatie
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Japan
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Australia
Ireland
Canada
Estonia
Germany
Spain
Average
Korea
Austria
Czech Republic
Norway
United States
Sweden
Denmark
Slovak Republic
Finland
Poland
Cyprus¹ ²
Flanders (Belgium)
Netherlands
Italy
19
PIAAC, 2012-15

20. 20
Competentiekloof tussen ‘well-matched’ en ‘over-qualified’
Mean numeracy score among adults with ISCED 5A or 6, by selected qualification match or
mismatch among workers (PIAAC, 2012 or 2015)
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
Mean score ISCED 5A or 6 degree working in a job needing the same level of qualification (well matched)
ISCED 5A or 6 degree working in a job needing ISCED 3 or below (overqualified)

21. De erosie van de kwalificatie-functie van HO
21

22. VOORUITZIEN
22

23. Vooruitzien…
1
3
4
2
Source:
http://www.horizons.gc.ca/eng/content/modu
le-1-introduction-foresight-presentation
23

24. Minder digitalisering = de-skilling
Meer digitalisering = competentie-ontwikkeling
250
260
270
280
290
0 2 4 6 8 10
Expected problem
solving skills
Years since leaving education
most digital workplace (above median in both non-routine and ICT intensities)
less digital workplace (below median)
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (2012, 2015)
24

25. Digitalisering drijft levenslang leren aan
0
10
20
30
40
50
Lower secondary or
less
Upper secondary Post-secondary,
non-tertiary
Tertiary –
professional degree
Tertiary – bachelor
degree
Tertiary – master /
research degree
highly digital
environment
poorly digital
environment
Share of workers reporting needing further training for their job by education level (%)
25

26. 26
Maar diversifieert en de-institutionaliseert ook
leren
0 20 40 60 80 100
Doing an online course
Communicating with instructors or students using educational websites/portals
Online learning material other than a complete online course
Consulting wikis (to obtain knowledge )
Seeking health information
Participating in social networks
Reading online news sites/newspapers/news magazines
SHARE OF INDIVIDUALS IN EUROPEAN UNION (28 COUNTRIES)

27. 27
Nieuwe credentials: open badges, nano-
degrees, micro-credentials, etc.

28. • Digitalisering zal geleidelijk de waarde en
levensduur van kwalificaties ondermijnen
• Maar zal leren en competentie-ontwikkeling
stimuleren
• Doorheen de levensloop – ‘lifelong learning’
• Nieuwe vormen van assessment en credentials
• HO instellingen zullen zich moeten aanpassen,veel
ingrijpender dan door ICT te integreren in onderwijs
28
Effecten van digitalisering voor HO

29. ENKELE VRAGEN EN
UITDAGINGEN
29

30. • Zal het ‘assessen’ van studenten/afgestudeerden
verschuiven naar ‘de andere kant’?
• Zullen ‘digital badges’ en portfolios even belangrijk
worden dan formele diploma’s en kwalificaties?
• Blijven kwalificatie als een soort
verzekeringsmechanisme functioneren?
• Worden andere manieren van kennis- en
competentie-ontwikkeling dominant?
30
Wat zal de toekomst van het HO brengen?

31. • Om kwalificatie relevant en ‘vertrouwenswaardig’
te houden, moet de buitenwereld vertrouwen
hebben in de mechanismen van toezicht
• Toezichtsfuncties zullen eerder op inhoud dan
op de institutionele bestuurs- en
managementsfuncties gericht moeten worden
31
Wat zal de toekomst van het HO brengen?

32. Dank!
dirk.vandamme@oecd.org
www.oecd.org/edu
twitter @VanDammeEDU
32