This document discusses several mega-trends that are shaping societies and impacting higher education globally. It identifies trends like aging populations, economic integration, inequality, changing family structures, ubiquitous technology/internet access, knowledge economies, urbanization, and health issues. It also discusses risks like commodification of education, skills mismatches, social inequalities, and changing skills demands due to technology. Overall, the document analyzes how broad, worldwide trends are influencing higher education systems and skills needs for the future.

1. MEGA-TRENDS SHAPING
SOCIETIES AND IMPACTING
ON HIGHER EDUCATION
Dirk Van Damme
OECD/EDU/IMEP – @VanDammeEDU

2. 2
Ageing Populations
Global Economic Integration
International
inequality
Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage
Changing balance of global power
More satisfied with life?
Lower voter turnout
Skills mismatch
Women in the labour
market and childbirth
More diverse families, generally
smaller and with older parents
Almost ubiquitous access and use of computing and the Internet
A digital society
Knowledge-intensive Economies
Migration and
mobility
Urban life
Obesity epidemic
Mega-trends…

3. GLOBALISATION
3

4. Question:
Starbucks was launched in 1971 in Pike
Place Market in Seattle. It has since grown
into a major multinational. How many
countries does Starbucks currently operate
in?
a. 35
b. 52
c. 67
Globalisation
4

5. Sources: H&M (2015), H&M Worldwide website; Inditex (2015), Our History, Inditex website; Tarzian, JoanMarie (2015),
Santander Corporate Communication – International Media Relations; Starbucks (2015), Company Information, Starbucks
website; Hoover, Joan (2015), Apple Investor Relations; Spencer, Graham (2015), Contributor, Macstories. 5
Global expansion of multinational companies
The global reach of five companies in food services, garments, banking, and
technology, 1988-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
NumberofCountries
Starbucks
Inditex
H&M
Apple

6. Migration
Global
integration
Trade
patterns
Environment
Harmonisation
of values
Affluence
and
inequality
Democracy
and dual
nationalities
G
L
O
B
A
L
I
S
A
T
I
O
N
6

7. 7
Globalisation also generates inequalities and exclusion.
How strong is the backlash against globalisation among the excluded

8. Global expansion & redistribution of qualifications
Global distribution of tertiary educated 25-34 y-olds in 2013 and 2030
8

9. 9
United
States,
13.7%
China,
17.8%
Russian
Federation,
10.9%
Japan, 6.9%
India, 11.4%
Korea, 3.9%
Mexico,
3.0%France,
2.6%
Germany,
2.0%
United
Kingdom,
2.9%
Indonesia,
4.3%
Spain, 2.2%
Canada,
2.1%
Brazil,
3.0%
Turkey,
1.7%
Other,
11.7%
Share in academic graduates 2010
United States
43.2%
United
Kingdom
13.8%
Netherlands
6.0%Germany
4.3%
Canada
4.3%
Australia
4.3%
Switzerland
3.5%
France
3.0%
Japan
2.5%
Sweden
2.6%
Korea
2.2%
Hong
Kong
2.0%
Other
8.4%
Share in academic excellence
THEWUR 2012
Global distribution of academic graduates
and academic excellence

10. 10
Globally connected networks in research

11. Global integration of qualifications?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Japan
Finland
Netherlands
Sweden
Australia
Norway
Flanders(Belgium)
England(UK)
England/N.…
UnitedStates
CzechRepublic
OECDaverage
Poland
Canada
NorthernIreland…
Austria
Germany
Ireland
France
Denmark
Estonia
SlovakRepublic
Korea
RussianFederation
Spain
Italy
Below upper secondary education Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education Tertiary education
11
Proportion of 25-64 year-olds scoring at PIAAC numeracy level 4 and 5, by educational
attainment of the population (2012)

12. DECREASING SECURITY
INCREASING RISKS
12

13. 13
Global risks interconnections map

14. Question:
Cybersecurity is perceived as an increasing
threat and risk, but is also a booming
business. How many certified cybersecurity
professionals are there in the world?
a. 40,000
b. 80,000
c. 100,000
Cybersecurity
14

15. 15
Number of certified individuals in
cybersecurity worldwide
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Numberofindividuals
Source: OECD (2015) Digital Economy Outlook 2015 cited in OECD (2016), Trends Shaping Education 2016, OECD
Publishing, Paris doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2016-en
Note: The International Information Systems Security Certification Consortium, otherwise known as (ISC)2, issues a
range of cybersecurity certifications

16. 16
Commodification of higher education as a risk

17. End of credentialism?
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012)
17

18. Formal education vs skills
18

19. Formal education vs skills
19

20. Credentialism as social security?
20

21. 21
New credentials: open badges, nano-
degrees, micro-credentials,etc.

22. SOCIAL INEQUALITIES
SOCIAL EXCLUSION
22

23. Gini coefficients of income inequality, mid-1980s and
2013, or latest date available
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1985 2013 or latest
Increase Little change Decrease
23

24. Trends in real household incomes at the bottom, the
middle and the top, OECD average, 1985 = 1
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bottom 10% Bottom 40% middle 50-90% Top 10%
24

25. Globalization and global redistribution of income
(Branko Milanovic’s “elephant chart”)
25

26. Amount of money spent by US households on child
development
26

27. Average numeracy score by parent educational
background (PEB) and inequality
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
0.18 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38
Numeracyscore
Inequality (Gini coefficient)
Low PEB Medium PEB High PEB
27

28. The engine of social mobility falters
Australia
Austria
CanadaDenmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Spain
Sweden
United States
Flanders (Belgium)
England/N. Ireland
(United Kingdom)
Russian Federation*
Average
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
12345678910
Upwardmobility
Odds ratio
inequality of opportunity
low educational mobility
inequality of opportunity
high educational mobility
equality of opportunity
high educational mobility
equality of opportunity
low educational mobility
28

29. MULTIDIMENSIONAL EXCLUSION

30. TECHNOLOGY AND SKILLS
30

31. A Brave New World
Question:
We have now become adept multi-taskers,
capable of doing many things online at the same
time. On average, how many things do we tend to
do online at once?
a. 6
b. 8
c. 10
31

32. Source: OECD (2014), Measuring the Digital Economy: A New Perspective.
32
Online multi-tasking: more efficient or more distracted?
Average number of activities being performed online at the same time per
Internet user, 2009 and 2013.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Numberofactivities
2009 2013

33. 33
New
technologies
Social
networksDigital
divide
Information
as power
Entrepreneurs
Cyber
bullying
Cyber
security
Biotechnology
Privacy
R&DA BRAVE
NEW
WORLD

34. Qualitative changes in skills demand
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine
interpersonal
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution (US)
34

35. Mismatch between skills supply and demand
35

36. WOMEN’S EMANCIPATION
36

37. Question:
On average across OECD countries, the
number of managerial positions held by
women has increased by 11% between
2000-2012. In which country has it
increased most?
a. Italy
b. Chile
c. Luxembourg
Female leadership
37

38. Source: International Labour Organization (2015), Global Report, Women in Business and Management Gaining Momentum.
26.9
32.7
14.3
18
23.6
25.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
%offemalemanagers
2000 2012
%
More female managers
Percentage of managerial positions held by women in private and public sectors,
2000-2012
38

39. Female leadership
Source: World Bank and Inter-Parliamentary Union (2015).
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Japan
Hungary
Turkey
Ireland
Chile
Korea,Rep.
SlovakRepublic
Estonia
UnitedStates
CzechRepublic
Greece
Israel
UnitedKingdom
Poland
Canada
Australia
France
OECDaverage
Luxembourg
NewZealand
Switzerland
Portugal
Italy
Austria
Slovenia
Germany
Mexico
Netherlands
Denmark
Belgium
Norway
Iceland
Spain
Finland
Sweden
Women in national parliament
1990 2014
39

40. Women’s first marriage
Question:
In 1990, the average age for women’s first
marriage was 25. What is the average age now?
a. 28
b. 30
c. 32
40

41. Source: Eurostat (2015), Marriage and divorces data.
Marriage age is rising
Mean age at first marriage for men and women, 1990, 2000, and 2013.
41
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
Age
1990 2000 2013 1990 2000 2013
Women Men

42. 42
Female graduation rates
Percentage of female graduates in tertiary levels of education (2014)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Sweden
CostaRica
SlovakRepublic
Norway
Latvia
CzechRepublic
Iceland
Argentina
Lithuania
SouthAfrica
Slovenia
Belgium
Hungary
Portugal
Spain
Denmark
Canada
NewZealand
Israel
Finland
Austria
Italy
Australia
EU22average
Luxembourg
Colombia
UnitedStates
RussianFederation
SaudiArabia
OECDaverage
Netherlands
UnitedKingdom
Mexico
Chile
Indonesia
China
Turkey
India
Switzerland
Germany
Japan
Bachelor’s or equivalent Doctoral or equivalent
%

43. 43
Women's earnings as a percentage of men's
earnings, tertiary graduates (2014)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Chile
Brazil
Israel
SlovakRepublic
Mexico
UnitedStates
Hungary
Greece
Korea
Austria
Poland
Estonia
Ireland
CzechRepublic
Portugal
Canada
Germany
France
Italy
OECDaverage
Netherlands
EU22average
NewZealand
Colombia
Norway
Australia
Lithuania
Latvia
UnitedKingdom
Finland
Denmark
Luxembourg
Switzerland
Spain
Belgium
Sweden
Slovenia
Turkey
CostaRica
%

44. WHAT DO THESE MEGA-
TRENDS IMPLY FOR SKILLS IN
THE FUTURE WORKPLACE?
44

45. Trends Affecting Future Skills Demand
45

46. Thank you!
dirk.vandamme@oecd.org
www.oecd.org/edu/ceri
twitter @VanDammeEDU
46