This document summarizes key findings from the OECD report on learning, literacy and the lifecycle using data from the Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC). It finds that: 1) Most formal education is completed by age 30 after which participation declines significantly while literacy proficiency also declines, especially after age 50. 2) Higher educational attainment is associated with higher literacy proficiency at all ages, but proficiency declines across all education levels as people age. 3) Participation in non-formal education is greatest for the employed and declines with both age and literacy proficiency level, potentially widening inequalities over the lifespan.

1. LEARNING, LITERACY
AND THE LIFECYCLE
National Adult Language, Literacy and Numeracy
Assessment Conference 2014, Melbourne, 1-2 May 2014
William Thorn, OECD

2. • Look at the relationships between literacy
proficiency and education and training
over the lifecycle
• Give an idea of some of the questions that
the data from PIAAC can help answer
• Make some comments about implications
of some findings for research policy and
practice
Objectives

3. • Two relatively distinct phases of
educational participation
– ‘initial’ education and training (mid-teens to
late 20s)
– ‘adult’ or post-initial phase (from late 20s)
Lifelong learning: a reality check

4. Percentage of adults participating in formal
and non-formal education by age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64
Formal education Non-formal education
Age
%

5. • Exit from formal education/training
corresponds to:
– Entry to employment
– Family formation
Lifelong learning

6. Employment rate by age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64
Participates in formal education Participates in non-formal education
Employed
Age
%

7. Family formation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64
Participates in formal education Participates in non-formal education
Lives with spouse or partner Has at least one child younger than 16 years
Age
%

8. • Progression through initial education is
reflected in the large changes in
educational attainment by age
• On average, the bulk of formal education
and training is consumed before the age of
30
Lifelong learning

9. Percentage of adults by level of educational
attainment and age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64
Lower than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary
Age
%

10. • Participation in non-formal
education/training is closely linked to
employment
– Rates of participation are higher for the
employed than for either the unemployed or
adults who are not in the labour force
Lifelong learning

11. Percentage of adults participating in non-formal
education by age and employment status
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64
Employed Unemployed Out of the labour force
Age
%

12. • Change in literacy proficiency by age appears to reflect
broad stages of educational participation. We look
separately at:
– 16-29 year olds, and
– 30-65 year olds
Literacy, education and age
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64
Age
Mean score: literacy

13. • Two issues
– Proficiency growth and its relationship to the
‘volume’ of education taken after the age of 15
– Sorting/selection and progression through
initial education
Initial education

14. • On average across the sample, 27 year olds
have higher proficiency than 16 year olds
(13.7 score points)
– Variation between countries
• Close relationship between the increment
in the volume of education associated with
a years increase in age and the increment
in proficiency
Proficiency growth

15. Proficiency growth
270
272
274
276
278
280
282
284
286
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Mean score
Years of education from age 15
Literacy proficiency by estimated years of education from 15 years of
age

16. • Differences between different age cohorts
are not the same as changes within a
cohort over time
• To estimate proficiency growth we need to
know the literacy proficiency of the 27 year
old cohort at age 16 (i.e. in 2001).
– This is not observed in PIAAC
Proficiency growth

17. Actual and predicted literacy proficiency for 26-27 year olds in PIAAC.
• Proficiency predicted on basis of average PISA reading score in 2000, estimated years
in education by age 27 and labour market conditions over 2008-2011
Proficiency growth
240.0
250.0
260.0
270.0
280.0
290.0
300.0
310.0
Actual
Predicted

18. • The evidence suggests that:
– there is growth in literacy proficiency after
age 15. However, the quantum is difficult to
estimate.
– Growth after 15 is small compared to growth
prior to 15
– Proficiency growth related to the time spent in
education after 15, and
– proficiency at age 27 is related to proficiency
at age 15.
Proficiency growth: summary

19. • Progression through secondary and post-
secondary education involves both learning
and sorting.
– Ensuring that young people are directed to the
courses and programs that best reflect their
talents and abilities is a more or less explicit goal
of policy.
– Selection is explicit for many courses (e.g. entry
to university.
– Young people also self-select given their interests
and their perception of their ability.
Sorting/selection effects

20. Literacy mean scores by age (16-29) and
educational attainment
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Lower than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary
Age
Mean score

21. • Two sets of questions
– What are the explanations for the observed
decline in literacy proficiency from the age of
30 age and does education play any role in
mitigating this?
– What is the relationship between
participation in non-formal education and
training and proficiency in literacy?
Post-initial or ‘adult’ education and training

22. • Changing composition of the adult
population in terms of educational
attainment explains some of the decline.
• However, decline is observed across all
levels of attainment
– Difference between 30 and 65 year olds
slightly less for people with less than upper
secondary attainment.
Proficiency decline from the age of 30

23. Literacy mean scores by age (25-65) and
educational attainment
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65
Lower than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary
Age
Mean score

24. • Changes in educational quality
• Skills depreciation
• Age-related cognitive decline
Proficiency decline: possible reasons

25. • Seems unlikely as an explanation
– Implausible that changes have been constant over
time, in one direction only and affect all levels of
education in a similar way
– Compositional changes may occur within
populations with the same level of attainment.
This may help explain the fact that the proficiency
gap between the 65 and 30 year olds is less for
people with low levels of education.
• Increasing rates of completion of higher levels of
education may mean that younger adults with low
educational attainment have lower proficiency than
their older peers did at the same age.
Change in educational quality?

26. • Possible explanation
– Evidence that practices change with age. Proportion of adults
reporting that they never read a book increases with age.
– Lack of or loss of familiarity with taking tests related to age may
also be relevant
Skills atrophy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64
Never
At least once a week but not every day
Every day
Age
% Frequency of reading books by age

27. • Evidence that ‘fluid intelligence’ declines
with age from early adulthood.
• ‘Crystallised’ intelligence increases over
much of the lifespan
• PIAAC tests may have more in common
with fluid than crystallised intelligence
Age-related cognitive decline

28. • Observed decline seems likely to relate to cognitive
decline and atrophy
• Higher levels of education do not protect against
decline.
– However, decline starts from a higher level.
• Does it matter?
– Literacy proficiency is one factor contributing to social
functioning
– Maximum performance is rarely required
– Accumulated knowledge and experience may offset other
aspects of decline
– Individuals adapt to their environment and also adapt
their environment to their capacities
Summary

29. • Discussions about ‘adult education and
training’ tend to focus questions of
quantum and access. In particular:
– Investment by employers in training
– Inequalities in access, particularly, for the low
educated and low skilled.
• PIAAC can shed light on the issues of
access
Non-formal education and training:
inequality, inequity and the Matthew effect

30. • Participation relatively stable for adults aged 30-50. The
fall after 50 years of age reflects falling employment
rates.
• The volume of training is negatively related to age.
Access
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 64
Age
Mean hours Average hours in non-formal education in the previous 12 months by age

31. • Participation and volume of training are
related to both educational attainment and
literacy proficiency
– The more highly educated and the more
proficient do more training
• Outcome is that the gap in the volume of
training undertaken by adults with high
proficiency and those with poor
proficiency will increase as they age
Access

32. Percentage of adults participating in non-
formal education by age and position in the
literacy proficiency distribution
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64
<25th percentile >=25th and <75th percentile >=75th percentile
Age
%

33. Estimated lifetime consumption of non-formal education
by position in the literacy proficiency distribution (from
the age of 30)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64
<25th percentile >=25th and <75th percentile >=75th percentile
Age
Mean hours

34. • Not necessarily
– More proficient are more likely to be in jobs
that require more training and to have the
interest in and dispositions to undertake more
training.
– Cannot say that the less educated or less
proficient ‘need’ more training than their
better educated/more proficient peers.
• Better to address the question of the
adequacy of provision.
Is inequality inequity?

35. • Range of approaches to the question
– Unmet demand
– Assessments of need
– Effectiveness of provision
• Unmet demand (excess of demand over supply)
– Surveys generally show little unmet demand for training
among low skilled adults. To the extent that such adults
want to do more training, but are unable to do so, the
reasons relate to issues that prevent them actualising a
demand (e.g. they don’t have the time) rather than lack of
supply.
– Surveys of employers show similar findings. There is a
perceived need to provide literacy training for example.
However, this is often not translated into training because
of the costs (both direct and in terms of foregone output).
Adequacy of supply (with a focus on
literacy related training)

36. • Global assessments of need
– Based on judgements about evolution of
technology, the economy and society and
resulting needs for skills
– Can come up with big estimates (e.g. OECD,
SCOTESE in Australia)
Adequacy of supply

37. • Effectiveness of literacy programmes
– Evidence of proficiency gains patchy
– Programmes need to be of sufficient duration
(100 hours plus)
• Summary
– ‘Adequacy’ a matter of judgement to a large
degree
– Should not discount the views of the principal
agents (adults with low proficiency and firms)
Adequacy of supply

38. • Importance of schooling for literacy
proficiency
• The duration/cost dilemma for adult
literacy programmes
• Training is not the only response to
literacy problems
• Equity in a lifelong learning context
• Peak performance is not always required
Some concluding comments

39. Find Out More About PIAAC at:
www.oecd.org/site/piaac
All international publications
The complete micro-level
database and associated
documentation
Data tools
Email
william.thorn@OECD.org
Thank you