Undersökning 6000 respondenter, juni 2010. Conversion Model - vad får väljarna att byta parti? Vilka budskap gillar de? Vilka kanaler väljer de? Sociala medier är inte rätt väg för de osäkra väljarna.

1. Vilka väljare kan partierna vinna – och hur? Almedalen 6 juli 2010

2. © TNS SIFO 2010 Fältarbete: Juni 2010 Intervjade 6000 Conversion Model ™ focus Svenska Partierr Styrkan i prtivalen” Data was weighted 9 partier

3. Detta är Conversion Model™

4. Our Extensive Track Record … Used on more than 10 000 studies It's the world's most widely validated measure of Commitment Used by 80% of the worlds most valuable brands* In over 100 countries On over 300 product categories *Source: Interbrand – The World’s Most Valuable Brands Survey 2006 © TNS SIFO 2010

5. Conversion Model ™ Anhängare Svag anknytning Öppna för partiet Otillgängliga Sympatisörer Icke -sympatisörer Mycket starka anhängare Svag anknytning Anhängare Söker alternativ Tillgäng liga Svagt otill gängliga Ambivalenta Starkt otillgäng liga

6. Explaining the Conversion Model ™ The segments tell us how people feel about their ‘brands’ Entrenched Strongly Committed to the brand. Unlikely to switch brands in the long-term Average Committed to the brand but not as strongly. Unlikely to switch in the short-term Shallow Uncommitted to the brand and could switch. Some are already looking at alternatives Convertible Uncommitted to the brand. The most likely to defect to another brand Available Non-users of the brand who are most likely to be acquired in the short-term Ambivalent Non-users who are as attracted to the brand as they are to other brands in the market Weakly Unavailable Non-users who are not currently available to the brand, but may be available later on Strongly Unavailable Non-users who are not available to the brand, they strongly prefer their current brand Users: Committed Users: Uncommitted Non-users: Open Non-users: Aware Unavailable

7. Partiprestationer på väljararenan

9. Hälsotillstånd hos partierna Partisympatisörer Icke Sympatisörer 120 97 87 65 88 Kristdemokraterna Sverigedemokraterna Miljöpartiet Socialdemokraterna Centern Moderaterna Folkpartiet Vänsterpartiet 85 95 99 85 Piratpartiet 81 70 112 122 125 122 125 72 120 190 138 156 83 58 120 92 24 65 Base n = 5,958 Read: For Moderaterna: 16% of the voting public is Committed, 13% is Uncommitted, 12% is Open, 58% is Unavailable and 1% has not heard of the party. Commitment is 20 points above the average, Potential is 19 points below the average and Attraction is 90 points above the average Note: Numbers > 0.5 rounded up * Caution: Small base size Indices with n<30 in the denominator greyed out Indices over 115 bolded for emphasis Commitment Index + Attraction Index + Starka anhängare öppna Otillgängliga Svag anknytning Känner ej till Potential Index +

10. Strength of Commitment What does each party’s relationship whit its supporters look like? % Committed % Uncommitted 61% 45% 43% 37% 30% Read: For Moderaterna: 17% of its supporters are Entrenched, 44% are Average, 18% are Shallow and 22% are Convertible Note: Parties with less than 30 supporters not shown Numbers > 0.5 rounded up * Caution: Small base size 49% 44% 41% 36% 39% 55% 57% 63% 70% 51% 56% 59% 64% Entrenched Convertible Average Shallow

11. States of Mind™ Hur ser väljarna på partierna i sin helhet Endast ett parti PASSIVA Delade men mellan flera Sökarna Ointresserade Se till att partiet finns med I väljarnas minne och förstärk huvuddrivkrafter Förstå varför konkurrenterna är attraktiva Vad driver missnöjet Kna helt andra tilltal göra dessa intresserde . Underhåll underhåll och försträrk hudvudsakliga drivkrafter Endast ett parti men bryr sig inte så mycket Vaneröstning) Tycker mycket om flera olika partier Partival viktigt men tycker inte om det nuvarande Partivalet spealr liten roll Base: n= 5,601 Read: 45% of the voting public is Committed to a single political party (even if they support more than one) and care about the party choice (Single-minded) Note: Numbers > 0.5 rounded up * Caution: Small base size

12. Moderaterna Moderata partibytare Vilka partier utgör hot och möjligheter Which parties represent potential threats and opportunities? © TNS SIFO 2010

13. Netto för Potential & Hot för Moderaterna Framtida förluster och vinster Moderaterna Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Moderaterna stands to potentially gain 0.6% of the voting public from Sverigedemokraterna overall Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Piratpartiet Sverigedemokraterna Miljöpartiet Socialdemokraterna Centern Vänsterpartiet Folkpartiet Kristdemokraterna Positive score = potential to gain supporters from competitor Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor Note:

14. Vinstmöjligheter Moderaterna Framtida vinstmöjligheter från andra partier Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Moderaterna stands to potentially gain 1.2% of the voting public from Sverigedemokraterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Piratpartiet Sverigedemokraterna Miljöpartiet Socialdemokraterna Centern Vänsterpartiet Folkpartiet Kristdemokraterna

15. Hot mot Moderaterna Partier som är attraktiva för moderata väljare Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Moderaterna could potentially lose 0.6% of the voting public to Sverigedemokraterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Piratpartiet Sverigedemokraterna Miljöpartiet Socialdemokraterna Centern Vänsterpartiet Folkpartiet Kristdemokraterna

16. Socialdemokraterna Socialdemokratiska partibytare Vilka partier utgör hot och möjligheter © TNS SIFO 2010

17. Netto för Potential & Hot för Moderaterna Framtida förluster och vinster För Socialdemokraterna Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Socialdemokraterna stands to potentially gain 0.4% of the voting public from Moderaterna overall Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Centern Moderaterna Miljöpartiet Piratpartiet Folkpartiet Kristdemokraterna Vänsterpartiet Sverigedemokraterna Positive score = potential to gain supporters from competitor Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor Note:

18. Vinstmöjligheter socialdemokraterna Framtida vinster Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Socialdemokraterna could potentially gain 2.4% of the voting public from Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Centern Moderaterna Miljöpartiet Piratpartiet Folkpartiet Kristdemokraterna Vänsterpartiet Sverigedemokraterna

19. Hot mot Socialdemokraterna Partier som är attraktiva för S-väljare Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Socialdemokraterna could potentially lose 2% of the market to Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Centern Moderaterna Miljöpartiet Piratpartiet Folkpartiet Kristdemokraterna Vänsterpartiet Sverigedemokraterna

20. Kristdemokraterna © TNS SIFO 2010

21. Hot och Potensial Kristdemokraterna Framtida förluster och vinster För Kristdemokraterna Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Kristdemokraterna stands to potentially gain 0.5% of the voting public from Socialdemokraterna overall Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Moderaterna Socialdemokraterna Vänsterpartiet Miljöpartiet Piratpartiet Centern Folkpartiet Sverigedemokraterna Positive score = potential to gain supporters from competitor Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor Note:

22. Potential Kristdemokraterna Framtida vinster Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Kristdemokraterna could potentially gain 1.5% of the voting public from Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Sverigedemokraterna Moderaterna Piratpartiet Centern Socialdemokraterna Miljöpartiet Vänsterpartiet Folkpartiet

23. Hot mot Kristdemokraterna Partier som är attraktiva för kristdemokrater Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Kristdemokraterna could potentially lose 1.5% of the voting public to Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Vänsterpartiet Moderaterna Piratpartiet Centern Miljöpartiet Socialdemokraterna Sverigedemokraterna Folkpartiet

24. Centern © TNS SIFO 2010

25. Netto Potential och Hot Centern Framtida förluster och vinster Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Centern stands to potentially gain 0.8% of the voting public from Socialdemokraterna overall Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Miljöpartiet Socialdemokraterna Vänsterpartiet Moderaterna Folkpartiet Piratpartiet Kristdemokraterna Sverigedemokraterna Positive score = potential to gain supporters from competitor Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor Note:

26. Potential Centern Framtida vinster Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Centern could potentially gain 2% of the voting public from Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Sverigedemokraterna Moderaterna Piratpartiet Folkpartiet Kristdemokraterna Miljöpartiet Vänsterpartiet Socialdemokraterna

27. Hot Centern Partier som är attraktiva för Centerväljare Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Centern could potentially lose 1.6% of the voting public to Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Vänsterpartiet Moderaterna Piratpartiet Kristdemokraterna Miljöpartiet Socialdemokraterna Sverigedemokraterna Folkpartiet

28. Folkpartiet © TNS SIFO 2010

29. Netto Potential & Hot Folkpartiet Framtida förluster och vinster Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Folkpartiet stands to potentially gain 1.8% of the voting public from Moderaterna overall Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Piratpartiet Moderaterna Centern Socialdemokraterna Kristdemokraterna Vänsterpartiet Miljöpartiet Sverigedemokraterna Positive score = potential to gain supporters from competitor Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor Note:

30. Potential growth opportunities for Folkpartiet Framtida vinster Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Folkpartiet could potentially gain 4% of the voting public from Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Miljöpartiet Moderaterna Piratpartiet Centern Kristdemokraterna Sverigedemokraterna Vänsterpartiet Socialdemokraterna

31. Hot Folkpartiet Partier som är attraktiva för Folkpartister Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Folkpartiet could potentially lose 2.2% of the voting public to Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Piratpartiet Moderaterna Vänsterpartiet Miljöpartiet Kristdemokraterna Socialdemokraterna Sverigedemokraterna Centern

32. Miljöpartiet © TNS SIFO 2010

33. Netto Potential och Hot for Miljöpartiet Framtida förluster och vinster Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Miljöpartiet stands to potentially gain 2.3% of the voting public from Socialdemokraterna overall Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Kristdemokraterna Socialdemokraterna Piratpartiet Folkpartiet Sverigedemokraterna Centern Vänsterpartiet Moderaterna Positive score = potential to gain supporters from competitor Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor Note:

34. Potential growth opportunities for Miljöpartiet POTENTIAL FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES: PARTIES THAT Miljöpartiet COULD GAIN SUPPORTERS FROM Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Miljöpartiet could potentially gain 4.8% of the voting public from Socialdemokraterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Sverigedemokraterna Socialdemokraterna Kristdemokraterna Vänsterpartiet Folkpartiet Centern Piratpartiet Moderaterna

35. Potential threats to Miljöpartiet Partier som är attraktiva för Folkpartister Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Miljöpartiet could potentially lose 2.5% of the voting public to Socialdemokraterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Kristdemokraterna Socialdemokraterna Piratpartiet Moderaterna Folkpartiet Centern Sverigedemokraterna Vänsterpartiet

36. Piratpartiet © TNS SIFO 2010

37. Netto Potential & Hot Piratpartiet Framtida förluster och vinster Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Piratpartiet stands to potentially gain 0.7% of the voting public from Moderaterna overall Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Folkpartiet Moderaterna Vänsterpartiet Sverigedemokraterna Miljöpartiet Centern Kristdemokraterna Socialdemokraterna Positive score = potential to gain supporters from competitor Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor Note:

38. Potential growth opportunities for Piratpartiet POTENTIAL FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES: PARTIES THAT Piratpartiet COULD GAIN SUPPORTERS FROM Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Piratpartiet could potentially gain 1.1% of the voting public from Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Centern Moderaterna Vänsterpartiet Miljöpartiet Sverigedemokraterna Folkpartiet Kristdemokraterna Socialdemokraterna

39. Potential threats to Piratpartiet Partier som är attraktiva för piratpartister Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Piratpartiet could potentially lose 0.4% of the voting public to Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Kristdemokraterna Moderaterna Sverigedemokraterna Miljöpartiet Folkpartiet Vänsterpartiet Centern Socialdemokraterna

40. Sverigedemokraterna © TNS SIFO 2010

41. Netto Potential & Hot Sverigedemokraterna Framtida förluster och vinster Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Sverigedemokraterna stands to potentially gain 0% of the voting public from Socialdemokraterna overall Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Centern Socialdemokraterna Folkpartiet Vänsterpartiet Piratpartiet Kristdemokraterna Moderaterna Miljöpartiet Positive score = potential to gain supporters from competitor Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor Note:

42. Potential growth opportunities for Sverigedemokraterna Framtida vinstmöjligheter från andra partier Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Sverigedemokraterna could potentially gain 0.6% of the voting public from Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Kristdemokraterna Moderaterna Centern Piratpartiet Miljöpartiet Folkpartiet Vänsterpartiet Socialdemokraterna

43. Potential threats to Sverigedemokraterna Partier som är attraktiva för Sverigdemokraterna Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Sverigedemokraterna could potentially lose 1.2% of the voting public to Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Kristdemokraterna Moderaterna Miljöpartiet Centern Piratpartiet Socialdemokraterna Vänsterpartiet Folkpartiet

44. Vänsterpartiet © TNS SIFO 2010

45. Netto Potential & Hot Vänsterpartiet Framtida förluster och vinster Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Vänsterpartiet stands to potentially gain 2.6% of the voting public from Socialdemokraterna overall Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Kristdemokraterna Socialdemokraterna Centern Sverigedemokraterna Miljöpartiet Piratpartiet Folkpartiet Moderaterna Positive score = potential to gain supporters from competitor Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor Note:

46. Potential growth opportunities for Vänsterpartiet Framtida vinstmöjligheter från andra partier Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Vänsterpartiet could potentially gain 3.7% of the voting public from Socialdemokraterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Centern Socialdemokraterna Folkpartiet Moderaterna Piratpartiet Sverigedemokraterna Kristdemokraterna Miljöpartiet

47. Potential threats to Vänsterpartiet Partier som är attraktiva för Vänsterpartister Base n = 5,958 (total market) Read: Vänsterpartiet could potentially lose 1.3% of the voting public to Miljöpartiet Note: This chart does not include dual supporters Parties ranked on potential net gain/loss Percentages are based on the total sample Piratpartiet Miljöpartiet Kristdemokraterna Moderaterna Folkpartiet Centern Sverigedemokraterna Socialdemokraterna