Vision 2050 Parts 3-4 Dr Robin Wood- Co-creating a Viable Future on a Smarter Planet
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This document is an introduction to Vision 2050, a 10-part series that explores how to create a viable future on a smarter planet. It is hosted by Dr. Robin Wood and created by unpaid volunteers. The introduction provides an overview of the 10 parts, which cover topics like renewable energy, resilient habitats, human wellbeing, and a wiser global culture. It encourages viewers to donate if they find the content valuable and thanks all contributors.
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Vision 2050 Parts 3-4 Dr Robin Wood- Co-creating a Viable Future on a Smarter Planet
- 2. Welcome to Vision 2050! • A 10 Part Series on how we can co-create a viable future on a smarter planet • Hosted by Dr Robin Wood, President of Renaissance2, a charitable association • Vision 2050 was created by a team of unpaid volunteers, so if you enjoy it please make whatever donation you can to Renaissance2 www.renaissance2.eu • Thank You! 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 2
- 3. Ten Parts Leading to a Viable Future Introduction- About Dr Robin Wood & Renaissance2 1- The Limits to Growth 6- Resilient Habitats 2- Anything is Possible 7- Enlightened Enterprises 3- Crises Accelerate Evolution 8- Human Wellbeing 4- Evolution is Evolving 9- Conscious Evolution 5- Renewable Energy 10- A Wiser Global Culture 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 3
- 4. Part 3 Crises Accelerate Evolution 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 4
- 5. & NOW, FOR SOME GOOD NEWS 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 5
- 6. After each great global extinction many new species appeared together Crisis is always Opportunity Acknowledgements: Dr Elisabet Sahtouris
- 7. OUR CRISIS IS A BIRTH “There is a profound birthing process underway on our planet, and the crises we face can be seen as contractions -- and evolutionary drivers. These catalytic events are accelerating, which is really good news because it means the birth is near. “ Barbara Marx Hubbard 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 7
- 8. Global Scenarios Also Show us a Way Forward… Voluntary or Increasing Spontaneous Sustainability Transformation Post- Physical Growth Economy ? ? Business as Usual Crisis Global Collapse 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ……………. 2050 Possible Timeframe Source: H Tibbs, 1997
- 9. A VIABLE FUTURE “You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” Richard Buckminster Fuller 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 9
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- 11. Green Growth Models Highlight New Mindsets for Sustainability 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 11
- 12. Is this the beginning of the Apocalypse?? Standing in 2012, what does the future look like? Will homo sapiens make it? 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 12
- 13. 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 13
- 14. Part 4 Evolution is Evolving 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 14
- 15. To Understand the Future, We Need to Rethink How Evolution is Evolving 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 15
- 16. Human Nature 1.0- Fiercely competitive “It is the doctrine of Malthus applied with manifold force to the whole animal and vegetable kingdoms” –Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species Acknowledgements: Dr Elisabet Sahtouris
- 17. The Classic Darwinian Model Survival of the Fittest/Most Adaptive- May Just be an Out of Date Interpretation of the Evolutionary Evidence…
- 18. 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 18
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- 21. • New forms emerge in niches in transition- when things stay the same, there is little/no evolution • Constraints (conditions & events) select which forms survive and which do not • More complex, cooperative forms adapt better than simpler forms in pure competition • New forms which lock in as standards tend to crowd out other variants, until they hit their own limits to growth • Crises accelerate evolution 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 21
- 22. Niches in Transition Drive Evolution Sharks have not evolved in 60 million years. Their life conditions have remained relatively stable Neanderthals died out 45 000 years ago when they failed to adapt to the disappearance of their forest habitats 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 22
- 23. Constraints (conditions & events) select which forms survive Peppered moths were light coloured prior to the Industrial Revolution They became blacker during the Industrial Revolution due to coal dust everywhere They became lighter again after the Clean Air Act 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 23
- 24. Complex, Co-operative Forms are Highly Adaptive- the billion year old slime mold 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 24
- 25. ? ? ? ? ! ? ? ? We ? locked in ..until now 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 25
- 26. Crises accelerate evolution (what does not kill you, makes you stronger) Crisis = World War II • A crisis means a system has hit a limit or tipping point. For example, wars, environmental destruction, population crashes, economic crashes • During a crisis rapid adaptation to new life conditions is required Accelerated in order to survive Computing • Innovative new species, strategies, institutions and technologies emerge during and after crises 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 26
- 27. FROM COMPETITION TO CO-OPETITION 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 27
- 28. Human history repeats evolutionary history 1. Diversification from the unity of the earliest human family, all the old patterns of 2. Competition and Negotiation played out in wars, conquests & assimilation for the millenia we’ve built empires of individual rulers, then nations and now corporations. 3. Finally we recognize we need a 4. co-operative world-unity at a higher level, a new multi- creatured cell the size of our entire planet. And gradually we see that just as our beautifully evolved body cannot be healthy if one or more organs are ill, so our global economy can thrive only if all local economies are healthy as well. Thus, 5. We become concerned with the ecosystems we have damaged and the economic inequities we must solve. Evolutionary Biologist Dr Elisabet Sahtouris 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 28
- 29. UNITY (NEW LEVEL) A global civilization now becomes essential INDIVIDUATION Large scale civilizations We spread around the became possible world forming thousands of distinct tribes UNITY COOPERATION early Homo sapiens emerged some 400 000 years ago. TENSION/CONFLICT These tribes clashed often Resulting in mergers & takovers Deals were done RESOLUTION NEGOTIATION Acknowledgements: Dr Elisabet Sahtouris
- 30. Self interest (not selfishness) at every level of your body leads to negotiation, compromises and cooperation …to dynamic harmony in a win/win system Acknowledgements: Dr Elisabet Sahtouris
- 31. Process Intelligence Goes Global Our bodies grow and develop through a process intelligence which involves the balancing of different systems in the body and environment contending for attention and resources, such that the whole body is optimised and coherent. This involves incredible amounts of communication and bandwidth at the speed of light- much like the balancing going on globally between contending cultures and entitities, any one of which could destroy our species if it were to become too dominant. 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 31
- 33. Part 4 From Footprints to Handprints – Sustainability is Evolving 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 33
- 34. 9/12/2012 © Dr Robin Wood 34
- 35. Shifting human behaviour at all levels toward sustainability is the key to thrival & wellbeing, which are the ultimate measure of value •HW =Human Wellbeing •T = Technological Intensity •Renewable energy; Resilient Environment; Enlightened Enterprise; Integral Governance •CE= Conscious Evolution •WC= Wise Culture 9/12/2012 Version 1.0 Confidential 35
- 37. 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 37
- 38. Innovation Innovation Innovation 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 38
- 39. How We Evolve/Innovate 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 39
- 40. Let‘s consider the telephone 1970
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- 42. 1997 2002 2006 2007 2012
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- 44. 2050? 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 44
- 46. Collaboration – The Spark of Creativity Trans-disciplinarity Multi-disciplinarity Breakthroughs occur at intersections of Bodies of Knowledge
- 47. Thanks for Watching Parts 3 & 4 • There are another 8 Parts to Vision 2050 • They are all available on SlideShare • If you would like to buy a copy of the book on which this presentation is based, it is available on www.amazon.com www.amazon.co.uk & worldwide Plus the Guidebook To move your life into a new gear …. 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 47
- 48. Thank You for Watching Vision 2050 • Vision 2050 was created by a team of unpaid volunteers, so if you have enjoyed it please make whatever donation you can to Renaissance2 www.renaissance2.eu • Thank You! • We would also like to thank everyone who contributed content to this presentation. It is published under a Creative Commons License- you are free to show this to others providing you acknowledge your source. 12/09/2012 copyright Dr Robin Wood 2012 48
Editor's Notes
- Thankyou Tiia, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen! It is an honour to beherewithyoutoday in thisbeautiful city, and to sharewith a set of excitingpathwaystoward a viable future for ourplanet.The theme of thisconference: A Changing World- Anythingis Possible, not onlychallenged me to push the limits on what I consider to be possible in thispresentation, but also made me considerveryseriouslywhatis possible four decadesinto the future, whichtakes us to 2052. By 2052 I willbe 95 yearsyoung, and I am sure wewill all be able to have a good laughtogether about whatwethoughtwas impossible and turned out to becompletelydoable, and commiserate about the things and people wetook for grantedwhichwealsolostduringthis time.
- GREEN GROWTH AND INNOVATION1. BackgroundInnovation and green growth are essential growth drivers for the economy and jobs in G8 countries and for increasing their potential for growth.The G8 Heads of State and Government, when meeting in L'Aquila in July 2009, considered it to be of paramount importance in their Responsible Leadership for a Sustainable Future declaration. The G8 has therefore launched several initiatives promoting energy efficiency and rational use of natural resources. In 2011, the challenge for the G8 is to take further steps by strengthening and stepping up efforts of its member countries.A wide range of actions and instruments will be implemented in the transition to green growth and a green economy: instruments to change economic incentives (indicators, tax measures, subsidies), regulatory changes, and stronger international cooperation. Some sectors are particularly concerned: water purification, solar and wind energy, waste recovery and recycling, site cleanup, air and noise control, agrofuels, carbon capture and storage and even the eco-design of consumer goods.In addition to its positive impact on the environment, investment in these new sectors has positive economic effects. It has reduced our energy dependence on fossil fuels, it has created new jobs, and it has made us more competitive in high-tech sectors and in the knowledge economy. Far from contradictory, the environment and growth are closely linked and complementary: the shift towards a more sustainable economic model is a global challenge and advanced economies can play a groundbreaking and exemplary role in meeting it.2. Objectives of the French presidency of the G8Our objective is to support the efforts of international organizations such as the OECD and UNEP in this area. In 2011 they will offer possible solutions to overcome obstacles to the transition towards a new more environmental-friendly economic model.Economic growth has been described as an acceleration in the production of economic value. It is usually measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Gross National Product (GNP) growth rate. However, many people now question what it means to base policy decisions solely on what is expected to increase GDP.We can rethink economic growth in many different ways. Indeed economists have been doing so for centuries. Nobel prize winner Simon Kuznets studied how to measure income and inequality and the relationship between the two. His ideas about how GDP should and should not be measured created some controversy at the time. Kuznets was rethinking the measurement of economic growth from a social perspective. Grossman and Krueger expanded on this and applied Kuznet’s ideas to the environment; they developed theories about what effects income growth can have on the environment.Green Growth is all about rethinking growth and how we can grow more sustainably.GDP may indeed increase but are resources being depleted quicker than income is growing? What is the effect of GDP growth on the environment and thus the environmental resources available to each segment of society? How will each segment of society in turn affect the environment?The G8 could help prepare major international meetings on innovation and green growth over the coming years, the first being the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) in Brazil in 2012. The G8's work will be coordinated with work done by the OECD, which will publish a green growth strategy in summer 2011, but also with the UNEP and the European Commission, who recently presented a new strategy for green growth as part of the Europe 2020 strategy.With its partners, France wishes to focus on practical and workable solutions to support innovation and green growth building on previous G8 initiatives and sharing lessons learned from policies conducted in the advanced-economy countries of the G8.
- So let us now begin our journey into the future. The story I am about to tell is called: The Shocking Truth and the Amazing Opportunities.
- At this point it is important for me to tell you that the drama we will experience in the next fourty minutes or so will contrasted by some amazing opportunities. You will see that the bigger the challenge we face in a specific area, the more miraculous will be the response and the more incredible the inspiring innovative force of the human mind and spirit.We could easily spend the rest of our time together just on this one slide if we allowed ourselves to be drawn into detail, but because I want to show you an incredible kaleidoscope of things to come, we must resist this tendency and stay up at the strategic level.The human population has roughly doubled since the 1960s and will increase to 9 billion by 2050. Demands for food, water and energy will increase, inevitably in competition with other species. People already use up to 40% of the world's primary production (energy) and this must increase, with important consequences for nature. Increasingly, we won't be living as a part of nature but alongside it, and we'll have redefined what we mean by the wild and wilderness.Crucially, we are still rapidly losing overall biodiversity, including soil micro-organisms, plankton in the oceans, pollinators and the remaining tropical and temperate forests. These underpin productive soils, clean water, climate regulation and disease-resistance. We take these vital services from biodiversity and ecosystems for granted, treat them recklessly and don't include them in any kind of national accounting.
- Affluence = Per Capita IncomeGrowth
- The WBCSD’s cornerstone Vision 2050 report calls for a new agenda for business laying out a pathway to a world in which nine billion people can live well, and within the planet’s resources, by mid-century. The report is a consensus piece that was compiled by 29 leading global companies from 14 industries and is the result of an 18 month long combined effort between CEOs and experts, and dialogues with more than 200 companies and external stakeholders in some 20 countries.The report features a set of agreed must haves. They represent vital developments that the report’s stakeholders hope organizations will consider putting in place within the next decade, to help ensure a steady course towards global sustainability is set. Ultimately, they are intended to provide a springboard for dialogue and debate.Must haves include:Incorporating the costs of externalities, starting with carbon, ecosystem services and water, into the structure of the marketplace; Doubling agricultural output without increasing the amount of land or water used; Halting deforestation and increasing yields from planted forests; Halving carbon emissions worldwide (based on 2005 levels) by 2050 through a shift to low-carbon energy systems; Improved demand-side energy efficiency, and providing universal access to low-carbon mobility.Vision 2050, with its best-case scenario for sustainability and pathways for reaching it, is a tool for thought leadership and a platform for beginning the dialogue that must take place to navigate the challenging years to come.The result of extensive dialogues involving 200 companies spanning 20 countries, Vision 2050 has at its core the attributes of successful business planning: understand your current situation, identify the obstacles to success, and create a pathway to overcome those obstacles. The conclusion of this analysis is the need for a fundamental transformation of the way the world produces and consumes everything from energy to agricultural products. And in that shift, Vision 2050 identifies unprecedented opportunities for business – at least those that understand they can no longer operate in business-as-usual, autopilot mode.Opportunities range from developing and maintaining low-carbon, zero-waste cities, to improving and managing biocapacity, ecosystems, lifestyles and livelihoods. In today’s dollars, the market opportunities created by adapting to the new global reality for sustainable living are somewhere between $3-$10 trillion USD per year in 2050.Vision 2050 is not only about economics, development and sustainability challenges for business. It suggests governments and civil society must create a different view of the future, one where, “economic growth has been decoupled from ecosystem destruction and material consumption and re-coupled with sustainable economic development and societal well-being.”With 9 billion people on the planet competing for a limited supply of natural resources, the definition of “living well” will also have to shift. Instead of a utopian dream, living well in 2050 means that all people have access to and the ability to afford education, healthcare, mobility, the basics of food, water, energy and shelter, and consumer goods. It also means living within the limits of the planet itself.Sometimes the simplest questions are the hardest to answer. Vision 2050 asks those questions and offers a way to help businesses understand the pathways they will need to succeed. The question of where we will be in 2050 is well worth asking, for the rewards to those who get the answers right is unprecedented.
- With this in mind we are organizing, with the support of INESC Porto and EGP-UPBS, the Open Innovation Demystified seminar, where we will count withProf. Marko Torkkeli from Lappeenranta University of Technology (Finland) to enlighten us on what are we talking about when we say Open Innovation. We would like to invite you to attend this event on February 3 (Thursday) at 6:30pm, at the EGP-UPBS Asprela Campus (Porto), Auditorium 631, in the Post-graduations building.Marko Torkkeli is the Professor of Technology and Business Innovations in the Department of Industrial Management (Faculty of Technology Management) at Lappeenranta University of Technology. His research interests focus on technology and knowledge management, innovation management, strategic entrepreneurship, decision support systems and growth venturing. Dr Torkkeli has also been engaged in numerous international research projects in the USA, Australia, Russia, Brazil, Canada, Japan and across Europe and as also served as an expert in business and technology management to both private firms and the public sector. He is a member of the Academy of Management, Strategic Management Society, and serves as Director in the International Society for Professional Innovation Management (www.ispim.org ). He is a visiting researcher at Inesc Porto (Portugal), Adjunct Professor of Technology and Innovation Management at Helsinki University of Technology (Finland), and Adjunct Professor of Technology‐based Business at University of Jyväskylä (Finland).