The Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) (Tập đoàn dệt may Việt Nam) is a large Vietnamese textile company, and one of Vietnam's largest companies overall.[1] The company's 'productive sector' consists of over 50 joint stock companies, and 40 joint venture companies, principally involved in manufacture; other listed company sectors include fashion magazines, fashion design institutes and textile-industry vocational schools, universities, real estate, supper market.[2] Vinatex operates several import-export companies. Company central offices are located in Ha Noi.
2. 2 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCKS OFFERING
CONTENT
Vinatex: An introduction
Vietnam Textile and Garment sector’s prospect
The market leader of the sector
Financial Analysis
Financial results’ forecast and valuation
3. 3 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
VINATEX: AN INTRODUCTION
XXThe company: The Holding company of
Vietnam Textile and Garment Group
XXThe role of the Company within the Group:
Vinatex is the holding company of the Group,
outlining the strategic direction and labour use,
controling and coordinating the activities
of its members and subsidiaries,
facilitating and synergizing the
Group’s performance.
XXWe consider the Group’s
business as a whole in order to
comprehensively evaluate its
position in the industry.
3 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
4. 4 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCKS OFFERING
OVERVIEW OFTHE GROUP’S BUSINESS
• 313 tons • 133.395 Tons • Woven fabrics
:206 millions m2
• Knitted fab-
rics: 9289 tons
• 330 million
products
• More than 50 large
supermarkets in 26
cities and counties
COTTON YARN SPNINING SEWING DISTRIBUTION
5. 5 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
INDUSTRY
PROSPECT
Figure 1. Forcasted exports of the Vietnam Textile &
Garment sector, 2013 - 2020 (Bil. USD)
19.0
21.4
23.9
26.9
30.6
34.1
37.4
40.9
0
15
30
45
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Vinatex
Three industry movers:
1 Domestic and international
demand’s growth
2 The shift in the global textile production
- consumption value chain
3 Opportunities from bilateral and
multilateral Free Trade agreements.
CARG = 11,56%
6. A SHIFT INTHEVALUE CHAIN:
CHINA + 1
Table 1.Changes in the rankings of world’s
top Textile & Garment exporters from 2008
to 2012 (Bil. USD)
2008
China 120
Turkey 13,6
Bangladesh 10,9
India 10,9
Vietnam 9
Indonesia 6,3
Mexico 4,9
XXChina’s low-cost labour
competitive advantage is
diminishing
This is due to:
XXA sharp increase in labour
cost
XXChina’s recent changes in
its industrial development
planning
XXNew competitors emerge
and participate in the global
value chain
2012
China 160
Bangladesh 20
Turkey 14
Vietnam 14
India 14
Indonesia 8
USA 6
7. 7 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
FREETRADE AGREEMENTS
1 Trans-Pacific
Partnerships (TPP),
2 Vietnam - EU
Free Trade Agreement,
3 Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Custom
Union Free Trade Agreement,
4 RCEP
Asean+6 Agreement,
5 Vietnam - Korea Free Trade
Agreement
Common trends
XX Tax rate reduction from 10% on average to 0%
XX “yarn forward” requirement
XX Negotiation to be finalized by 2014 - 2015
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8. 8 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCKS OFFERING
VIETNAMTEXTILE & GARMENT EXPORT
MARKETS
Figure 2. Vietnam Textile & Garment export markets, 2012
42.98%
14.00%
12.03%
9.28%
21.71%
Source: General Department of Vietnam Customs
„„ US „„ EU „„ Japan
„„ Korea „„ Other
9. 9 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
TRANS-PACIFIC STRATEGIC ECONOMIC
PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT
XX Since the 1st round of negotiation in
Melbourne - Australia (March, 2010), TPP
negotiation has essentially finished. The
negotiation rounds among the participating
countries’ Ministers is in process.
XX The countries participating in the Agreement
are the most significant and potential export
markets of the Vietnam Textiles and Garment
sector.
XX Vietnam is the second largest exporter in the
US, accounting for 8.5% of the total market
share, only below China which holds 39,4%.
Table 2. Vietnam Textile & Garment
exports to the US with and without the
effect of TPP
9
15
20
22
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2013 2020E 2025E
„„ With the effect of TPP „„ Without the effect of TPP
Source: Amcham
11. 11 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
1 Advanced & efficient
manufacturing technology,
2 Globally competitive ,
subsidiaries & affiliates,
3 Fully integrated supply chain from Research and Development /
Training / Design / Yarn - Textile / Dyeing - Sewing and Distribution
4 Economy of scale in
Revenues, Total assets & Growth
5 The shift to
FOB II and ODM.
6 Restructuring and focusing on
investments within the industry
12. INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCKS OFFERING12
ROBUST SUBSIDIARIES AND
AFFILIATES
XX Vinatex owns stakes in several industry
leaders in the Vietnam Textile and Garment
sector.
XX The member companies have strong
reputation, high capacity, good brand
recognition and independence in business
activities.
XX The Holding company - Vinatex outlines the
Group development strategy, coordinates
and synergizes its members to achieve an
efficient business operation.
Among the 12 top Vietnam Textile
and Garment exporters in the first
quarter of 2014, 6/12 were Vinatex’s
member companies.
13. 13 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
OVERVIEW OF SOME OF
THE MEMBERS OFTHE GROUP
Viet Tien Garment Joint Stock Corpo-
ration
(Vinatex owns 47,88%)
Most of Viet Tien’s products is exported
to Japan (27%), United States (22%) and
the EU (21%). Viet Tien owns strong
distribution system which covers 64
provinces and cities, concentrating on
urban areas.
The company’s exports reached 334
million USD in 2013, up 23.7% yoy.
.
Figure 3. Viet Tien’s net revenues (Bil. VND)
2,313
3,378
3,897
4,831
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Viet Tien Garment Joint Stock Corporation’s audited financial statement
CARG 27,84%
14. OVERVIEW OF SOME OF
THE MEMBERS OFTHE GROUP
Phong Phu Corporation
(Vinatex owns 48,88%)
Phong Phu Corporation (PPCo) is a vital link in Vi-
natex’s supply chain, manufacturing in the ODM
model. The company meets the raw material ori-
gins requirement of FTAs. As of now, Vinatex has
increased its ownership in PPCo to 51%.
Competitive advantages:
XX Complete value chain from yarn, fabric to
garment.
XX Successful ODM model application at Phong
Phu International Joint Stock Company (PPJ)
XX Joint ventures in producing raw materials
(thread) since 1989, currently accounting for
more than 45% market shares in Vietnam.
Figure 4. PPCo net Revenues (Bil. VND)
3.926
4.361 4.295
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
2011 2012 2013
Source: PPCo’s audited financial statement
CARG 4,59%
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OVERVIEW OF SOME OF
THE MEMBERS OFTHE GROUP
Hoa Tho Textile & Garment Joint Stock
Corporation
(Vinatex owns 71,62%)
One of the leading company of the industry.
Domestic and export revenues are 14.7%
and 85.3%, respectively. 13% of exports
comes from the US, 71% from EU and 16%
from other markets.
In 2014, the company’s plan for revenues,
profits before tax and dividend payout ratio
were 2,750 Bil. VND, 83 Bil. VND, and 20%,
respectively. Export revenue target is 120
milllion USD, planned fiber production to
reach 11,300 tons, and planned garment
production to reach 12 million units.
Figure 5. Hoa Tho’s net revenues (Bil. VND)
1,280
1,636
1,952
2,432
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Hoa Tho Textile- Garment Joint Stock
Corporation’s Financial Statement
CARG 23,86%
16. VINATEX’SVALUE CHAIN
Yarn
XX Vinatex is mostly self-
sufficient in yarn.
XX A small amount of
yarn were imported
because of fine
count requirement
and other special
requirements not
being met by domestic
manufacturers.
Textile
XX Vinatex plans to invest
6071 Bil. VND into 9
fabric projects (textile
and dyeing) in 2014 -
2017.
Sewing
XX The Group accounted
for 15% of the Textile
and Garment sector’s
exports.
XX Futher application of
ODM model, gradually
shift from CMT and FOB I
to FOB II and ODM.
17. 17 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
ODM PRODUCTION INCREASES
VINATEX’SVALUE
R&D
SPINNING
WEAVING
KNITTING
SEWING
TRANSPORT &
DISTRIBUTION
XX Vinatex and members’ ODM production
revenues contribution is more than
twice the average level of the Textile &
Garment sector, but it is still lower than the
potential.
XX Further application of ODM Producion
XX Profit margin of ODM production is much
higher than that of CMT (10% compared to
3%).
XX Vinatex International Jsc (VTJ),
established in 2013, will work directly with
global buyers.
18. REVENUE BREAKDOWN BY PRODUCTION METHODS
Figure 6. Producing methods within the
Group
55%
20%
15%
10%
CMT
FOB I
FOB II
ODM
„„ CMT „„ FOB II
„„ FOB I „„ ODM
Source: Vinatex
Figure 7. Producing methods of companies
outside the Group
65%
20%
10%
5%
„„ CMT „„ FOB II
„„ FOB I „„ ODM
Source: Vinatex
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19. 19 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
RESTRUCTURING AND
FOCUSING ONTEXTILE & GARMENT SECTOR
Divestments of non-core
businesses
XX Total divestment amount in this
period is 1,143 Bil. VND at par
value, 1,083 Bil. VND according
to the reassessed value.
XX In which, Vinatex has divested
11 Companies, grossing184
Bil. VND (higher than the
reassessed value of 156.51 Bil.
VND).
XX Vinatex will divest all non-core
businesses in 2015.
Increase investment in
Textile & Garmet Sector
XX Increasing the ownership in
Phong Phu Corporation to 51%.
XX Increasing ownership in some
of its members
XX Decreasing the non-core
business investment and
focusing more on investment in
the Apparel & Textile Sector
The aim: Decrease
non-core investment
and focus on the
Textile & Garment
industry, complete the
supply chain, increase
member’s competitive
advantage, thereby
improving operational &
financial results
20. 20 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCKS OFFERING
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
21. 21 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
ANALYSIS OFTHE CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL
STATEMENT
Vinatex’s shares value comprises of:
XX Operating results of the 4 Limited Liability
Companies with 100% State ownership
XX Operating results of subsidiaries after deducting
minority interest
XX Value obtained from the operation of associated
companies and other long-term investments
XX Operating results of the three dependent accounting
companies and office leasing activites
XX Indirect contribution from the non-business units,
such as colleges & training and research institutes.
22. OVERVIEW OFVINATEX’S
PORTFOLIO
Table 3.Financial investments breakdown, 2012 - 2013
2012 2013
Equity 4.534.509 4.686.398
Long-term investments 3.368.328 3.245.071
Investments in subsidiaries 1.523.237 1.484.027
As a % of equity 34% 32%
As a % of Long-term
investments
45% 46%
Investments in affiliates 1.291.040 1.269.675
As a % of equity 28% 27%
As a % of Long-term
investments
38% 39%
Other investments 554,051.0 511,849.6
As a % of equity 12% 11%
Tỷ trọng/ĐTTC dài hạn 16% 16%
Source: Vinatex’s FS, 2012 - 2013
Figure 8. Returns of financial investments
9.9%
10.9%
11.1%
8.9%
10.3%
0.0%
6.0%
12.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Vinatex consolidated FS, 2009- 2013
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23. 23 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
OVERVIEW OFVINATEX’S PORTFOLIO
Table 4.Total Asset, Revenue and Net Income of the biggest subsidiaries (Bil.
VND)
2012 2013
TTS DT LNTT TTS DT LNTT
Hoa Tho Textile & Garment JSC. 976 1.977 58 975 2.454 53
% yoy 31,87% 19,13% -0,14% 24,16% -8,5%
Hanoi Textile & Garment JSC 947 532 117 1.049 785 15
% yoy 10,70% 47,45% -87,56%
Total 1923 2509 175 2024 3239 68
Source: Hoa Tho Textile & Hanosimex FS
On Dec 31, 2013, besides
the 4 100%-owned Sole
member Limited Liability
Co., Vinatex has 14 other
subsidiaries (according to
the Consolidated Financial
Statement), of which are
Hoa Tho Textile & Garment
Joint Stock Corporation,
Hanoi Textile Garment
Corporation – Hanosimex,…
24. On Dec 31,2013, Vinatex has invested
in 34 associate companies , 27 – 28%
of the funding of which comes from
Vinatex’s equity. 8 companies among
those keep the key role in the Group.
Viet Thang Corporation, Viet Tien
Garment Joint Stock Corporation and
Phong Phu Corporation are the key
members that Vinatex owns nearly 50%
capital and these maintain the dividend
payout ratios of 20-25% / year; Vinatex
keeps more than 25% capital of the
other 5 key Corporations and receives
dividend ratio of approximately 20% /
year.
OVERVIEW OFVINATEX’S
PORTFOLIO
Table 5. Total Asset, Revenue and Net Income of the 4 biggest associates companies (Bil. VND)
2012 2013
TTS DT LNTT TTS DT LNTT
Phong Phú 4.276 4.360 305 4.536 4.295 281
% yoy 3,18% 11,06% -19,96% 6,09% -1,5% -7,76%
TCTCP Việt Tiến 1.942 3.897 206 2.457 4.831 312
%yoy 11,39% 15,36% -0,03% 26,49% 23,98% 51,53%
TCT Việt Thắng–CTCP 943 1.917 144 1.071 2.032 109
%yoy 2,84% 2,10% 17,64% 13,63% 6,03% -24,28%
TCT May 10-CTCP 724 1.489 37 795 1.840 43
%yoy 10,89% 2,12% 17,78% 9,77% 23,54% 14,53%
Tổng 7.885 11.663 692 8.859 12.998 745
Source: Viet Tien JSC, Viet Thang JSC, May 10 JSC Financial Statements
INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCKS OFFERING24
25. 25 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL RESULTS
Figure 10. Total Liabilities, 2010 - 2013 (Tril.
VND)
7.4
6.0
4.4 4.5
2.4
2.0
1.2 1.6
0
4
8
12
2010 2011 2012 2013
„„ Long-term liabilities „„ Current liabilities
Source: Vinatex’s consolidated Financial statement for
the period 2010 - 2013
Figure 9. Total Assets, 2010 - 2013 (Tril. VND)
8.9
7.3
5.7 5.7
6.9
6.8
5.4 6.1
0
6
12
18
2010 2011 2012 2013„„ Current-Assets „„ Fixed Assets
Source: Vinatex’s consolidated Financial
statement for the period 2010 - 2013
26. 26 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCKS OFFERING
CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL RESULTS
Revenues and profits
XX The Group’s revenue and profit decreased as a result of 33
subsidiaries no longer being consolidated on the balance
sheet from 2011 to 2012.
XX Gross profit margin from the business result has been
stable, slightly improved from 12.0% (for the year 2011)
to 12.2% (for the year 2013). Sewing products bring about
the highest gross margin at 15 to 17%, followed by fabrics
(10%)
Operational efficiency
XX The Group’s operational ratios have been stable for the
past 02 years. In particular, total asset turnover in 2013
is 0.93, slightly decreased from that in 2012. The Group’s
inventory days maintains at 64 days. Account receivable
days slightly reduced to 42 days.
XX The USD revenues from operation helped the Group in
accessing low-cost loans and currency hedging
Figure 11. Group’s revenues, 2010 - 2013 (Tril. VND)
16.7
19.6
12.4 11.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Vinatex’s consolidated Financial Statement
27. CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL RESULTS (CONT.)
27
CƠ HỘI ĐẦU TƯ CỔ PHIẾU VINATEX
1 Secure
financial structure
2 Robust
ratios & indicators
3 Improving operational
efficiency
4 Privatisation bolsters
Vinatex’s development
5 Most of the Holding
Company’s main income
source is from dividend
distributed by the subsidiaries
Financial highlights:
29. FINANCIAL RESULTS FORECAST
Income from distributed divi-
dends accelerates
XX The income from distributed
dividends is estimated to reach 326
Bil. VND in 2014 and rise to 516 Bil.
VND in 2020, equivalent to a CAGR
of 6.76% over the period from 2013
to 2020.
Investment in ODM
XX ODM’s revenues margin is assumed
to be 10% on average based on the
deployment plan
Centralized cotton operation
XX The plan mainly supports the
subsidiaries, not targeting profits.
Profit margin from this operation is
forecasted to be around 1%
Financing costs
XX Interest expense in 2014 is
forecasted to slightly decrease by
1.81% to 33 Bil. VND
XX Funding from ADB worths over 100
millions USD at low interest rates,
a long repayment period (23 years)
and a 5-year grace period
XX Interest expense in 2015 is
forecasted to reduce, gradually
increase from 2016 onwards
Profit after tax is expected to
increase
XX Based on the mentioned forecast for
business and financial operations,
we expect the profit after tax to
reach 300 Bil. VND in 2014 and 891
Bil. VND in 2020
Dividends distribution
XX We assume Vinatex will pay
dividends at the rate of 5% in the
first year after privatisation and
gradually increase to 12% after 2017
31. 31 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL
Rationale
The DDM Method is used in view of long-term investors’ interest, in
this case Vinatex’s dividends after the IPO.
A 02 – phase growth model is applied in this case:
XX Phase 01 from 2013 to 2020: Corresponding to the period that
Vietnam’s textile and garment export is expected to sharply
increase and the ODM production model is successfully deployed
at Vinatex.
XX Phase 02 after 2020: Long – term growth. Dividend growth rate
is forecasted to be at 3.22% p.a. and calculated based on the
assumption that after 2020, Vinatex achieves stable operation
with the Return on Equity rate at 15% p.a.
Assumptions
Risk free rate 7,10%
Market’s required return 12,00%
Industry beta 1,06
WACC 12,29%
Post 2020 dividend growth 3,22%
Valuation Result 11.442
VND
31 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
32. PRICE-TO-BOOKVALUATION MODEL
Rationale
P/B comparison is used since Vinatex’s stock is offered
at a price close to the book value, making P/B ratio a
strong basis for valuation.
Selection criteria for the comparables
XX Total assets within the 150 millions USD -
380 millions USD range (Vinatex Total assets
approximates 250 millions USD)
XX ROA and ROE close to those of Vinatex (2013 ROA
= 4.42%; 2013 ROE = 4.94%)
XX The average P/B of the comparables is 1.30
P/B Model
Owner’s equity after IPO 5.032.867.970.214
Expected profit 352.563.741.145
2014 Retained earnings 2.563.741.145
Owner’s equity at the
end of 2014
5.035.431.711.359
Number of shares 500.000.000
Book value 10.071
P/B 1,30
Valuation result 13.332
33. 33 INVESTING IN VINATEX’S STOCK OFFERING
THANKYOU!
CONTACT
Head Office
10th & 11th floor – BIDV Tower
35 Hàng Vôi – Hoàn Kiếm – Hà Nội
Tel: 84 4 39352722
Fax: 84 4 22200669
Website: www.bsc.com.vn
Hochiminh Branch
9th floor – 146 Nguyen Cong Tru St
District 1, Hochiminh City
Tel: 84 8 3 8218885
Fax: 84 8 3 8218510
Facebook: www.facebook.com/BIDVSecurities
Tran Thang Long
Head of Research
longtt@bsc.com.vn
(+84) 43935 2722 ext. 118
Nguyen Thanh Hoa
Head of Brokerage
hoant@bsc.com.vn
(+84) 43935 2722 ext. 155