Vipf investment themes 2019, BSC presentation at VIPF Phu QUoc about Investment theme 2019 by Long Tran Thang

1. Investment Themes 2019
Long Tran
BSC Head of research
Please feel free to contact me at
E Longtt@bsc.com.vn
P +84 24 39352722 (118)
M +84 906 959 034
S rongbeo
05/11/2018

2. Topic
2
Stock Market
outlook 2019
Emerging
market Upgrade
Trade war &
FTA
Top
Investment
themes 2019
1 2 3 4

3. Topic 1:
Stock Market outlook for 2019
3

4. Vnindex in 2019: the long term trend & Volatility
Source: BSC, Bloomberg
+ 12.8% annually
Number of section(Up or down more than 2%)Vnindex 2000 - 2018

5. Vnindex in 2019: VIPF’s Forecast
Source: BSC, Bloomberg
VIPF’s forecast Jan 2018

6. Vnindex in 2019: Events from 11/2018 – 06/2019
Source: BSC
Month Time (date) International Event
6 Midterm election in America
Nov-18
8 Fed meeting
26-30 ETF ishare MSCI review
National Assembly 6th
3 OPEC meeting
21 ETF FTSE Review
13 ECB meeting
Dec-18
17-21 ETF VNM review
18 – 19 Fed meeting
19-20 BOJ meeting
Month Time (date) International Event
Jan-19
18 ETF VFM VN30 review
24 ECB meeting
30 Fed meeting
Feb-19
FTSE announcement
25-28 Ishares MSCI review
Mar-19
7 ECB meeting
20 Fed meeting
11-15 ETF VNM, FTSE review
23 UK officially left the EU
Apr-19 10 ECB meeting
May-19
1 Fed meeting
27-31 Ishares MSCI review
Jun-19
6 ECB meeting
17-21 ETF VNM, FTSE review
National Assembly 7th
MSCI review
19 Fed meeting

7. Vnindex in 2019: Market Valuation and earning
Source: BSC
Earning per share Vnindex 2013 - 2018P/E ratio Vnindex 2013 - 2018

8. Vnindex in 2019: Key Question
Source: BSC
• What are the key factors that might weight on the 2019’s
outlook ? Positive and negative factors ?
• What kind of volatility should you expect in 2019 ? More
volatility than 2018 or not ?
• If world developed economies run into recession, how will
Vietnam market behave? could Vietnam stocks outperform?
• What is your prediction for Vnindex in 2019 ? -20%, -10%,
0%, +10%, +20% any number ? And Why ?

9. Topic 2:
Vietnam and Emerging market
9

10. Emerging market: Performance and Valuation
Source: BSC
Vnindex vs MSCI Emerging, Frontier & world market Valuation and Earning Growth 2018
EPS growth
PER
Source: Credit Suisse, Dragon Cap

11. Emerging market: FII and ETF
Source: BSC
Top ETF that track FTSE and MSCI Emerging market
Source: Credit Suisse, Dragon Cap
Country Oct-18 YTD 12 months
India (2,871) (4,878) (2,422)
Indonesia (372) (4,059) (5,647)
Japan 15,027 (36,860) (40,617)
Malaysia (363) (2,492) (2,220)
Phillipines (182) (1,752) (1,727)
Korea (3,960) (6,048) (6,278)
Sri Lanka (21) 27 16
Taiwan (5,264) (10,934) (13,256)
Thailand (1,868) (8,386) (9,349)
Pakistan (73) (401) (487)
Vietnam 410 1,805 2,356
FII in Asian Countries 2018

12. Emerging market: case study of UAE’ Upgrade
Source: BSC, Bloomberg
STT Qatar Stocks in MSCI Sector
Change in price Change in Volume
in 6 months in 12 months in 6 months in 12 months
1 Abu Dhabi Comm Bank Bank 30.1% 41.3% -28.7% -7.9%
2 Aldar Properties Real estate 27.4% 43.1% 100.9% 190.4%
3 Arabtec Construction 39.9% 78.1% 108.0% 488.3%
4 Dp World Logistics 16.0% 29.0% -21.9% 65.9%
5 Dubai Financial Market Finance 47.7% 78.9% 0.8% 75.3%
6 Dubai Islamic Bank Bank 73.7% 109.1% 1.1% 56.1%
7 Emaar Properties Finance 47.7% 78.9% 0.8% 75.3%
8 First Gulf Bank Bank 17.7% 29.4% 250.3% 173.2%
9 Nat’l Bank Of Abu Dhabi Bank 25.1% 40.6% 1157.2% 655.2%
Average 36.1% 58.7% 174.3% 196.9%
ADSMI Index 20.8% 28.2% 47.4% 126.4%

13. Emerging market upgrade Key Question
Source: BSC
• Do you think that the possible upgrade of Vietnam is
already affect institutional investor’s decision or not?
• Will Vietnam attract more inflow after joins the emerging
markets? And how much ?
• Which group of stocks are most attractive for this
reclassification?

14. Topic 3:
Vietnam and Trade war
14

15. Trade war: Will Vietnam be benefited?
Source: BSC

16. Trade war: Will Vietnam be benefited?
Source: Massimiliano Calì,WB economist 2018

17. Trade war and FTA Key Question 2019
Source: BSC
• Could Vietnam be a “winner” from the Trade War?
• What kind of sectors, companies are likely to benefited from
the trade war and new FTA (EV FTA and CPTPP) ?
• Which stocks that mind be in the spot light ? The export
sectors (textile, garment…) or/and the indirect sectors
(logistic, industry zone, infrastructure…)

18. Topic 4:
Investment themes for 2019
18

19. Top Investment themes The past 5 years 2013 - 2018
Source: BSC
year Vnindex
Gain/loss
(%)
Liquidity
(Mil USD/day)
Stocks that worked 2013 -2018
2013 504,6 22,0% 66,2 • Small cap, textile (TCM, PTB)
2014 545,6 8,1% 141,6 • Banking (VCB, CTG, BID)
2015 579,0 6,1% 117,1 • Oil & Gas Stocks (GAS, PVS, PVD)
2016 664,8 14,8% 136,9 • Turnarounds, mid Cap, steel (HPG, HBC
2017 960,0 44,4% 217,8 • Blue chips, IPO, Banking (VN30, VPB)
2018 888,7 -7,4% 254,1
• Real estate, Aquaculture (VIC, VHC)
Vnindex and stocks that outperformance 2013 - 2018

20. Top Investment themes Sector Valuation comparison
Source: Bloomberg, 06/10/2019

21. Top Investment themes: Key Question
Source: BSC
• What kind of investment themes that you expect in 2019?
• If your are bearish should we go for defensive ? Retail, power
plant, pharmaceutical, consumer goods and services ?
• If you are bullish, how’s about key sectors: Banking, Real
estate, Oil & Gas ?
• Do you think that smart money will focus to turnaround, pre
listing, new IPO, new listing, state divestment ? Or else ?