The document outlines investment themes for 2017, emphasizing Vietnam's economic challenges, stock market dynamics, and key sectors for investment. It highlights the potential for growth driven by new stocks, privatization, and the increasing role of foreign investment, while also noting risks related to global economic factors. Investors are encouraged to consider emerging sectors and market corrections to capitalize on opportunities in both local-oriented and restructuring companies.

1. Investment themes 2017
Long Tran
Head of research
M +84 906 959 034
E Longtt@bsc.com.vn
P +84 4 39352722 (118)
S rongbeo
BSC

2. Content List
• Economy & Stock market 03
• Economy 04
• Stock market 05
• Investment themes 07
• Overall 08
• Five course menu 09

3. Economy and stock market
Challenging 30 years since “Doi Moi”
3

4. Key takeaway macro points
• Global growth is weak while raw material price recovers
• What happens if TPP fails Or is delayed ?
• Vietnam falls short of GDP target in 2016 (6.7%), 2017 target 6.7% again
• New PM wants to support growth and push privatization, indicating that he
is more Pro-business. Party leader’s anti corruption campaign.
• Pros: strong FDI, stable interest rate, liquidity, positive export, foreign
reserve of USD 40 billion
• Cons: SOEs restructuring, Banking system, CPI and fiscal deficit,

5. Money will be where the growth is found
Source: BSC, Blackrock
Emerging economies
• China Slowdown
• BRIC slow down
• Commodities price recovery
Developed economies
• FED hike
• Election year and anti TPP
•Brexit & EU
Geopolitical risks
• Conflict and violence
(Russia, East Sea, IS)
• Cyber Security
Vietnam
• USD/VND
• Fiscal Policies
• FTA & investment (TPP)
BSC’s relevant reports: Brexit before & after, Lanina, Oil, commodity

6. Key takeaway Stock market points
• Vietnam looks a lot like a turnaround stock with new leaders, restructuring plan
and receiving huge foreign investment (start slow but improve fast)
• Valuation multiples is higher than 5 years average but still attractive compare to
Asian peers. 4Q P/E is high (16.2) and need a correction.
• Top Blue chips look expensive with half of their P/Es ranging from 22 to 40
times.
• In medium term, Stock market will have new kids on the block as IPO,
divestment and listing procedures are pushed; market cap and liquidity will
hence increase
• What if Vnindex can grow at the same rate as Asean stock indexes from 2009 to
2012 ?

7. 752.03
621.88
699.31
880.58
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18
Bear Bull Average
Fearless forecast 2016 -2018
• Vnindex is the biggest loser comparing
to other Asean stock markets. Vnindex
broke 8 year high of 680 points.
• Since 2009, Asean stock market sur
passed 2007’s top by a huge
percentage.
• Indonesian index has increased the
most, while Singapore performed
the least.
• What if Vnindex can recover at the
same rate as Asean indexes 2009 -
2012
• Let your imagination go wild:
• Vnindex 699 at the end of 2016
• Vnindex 752 to 880 at the end of
2017Source: BSC

8. Investment themes
Alpha Seeking
8

9. Key Investment themes for 2017
Drinks
Starter
Main course
Side dishes
Dessert
Five Course menu

10. Starters: Seasonal stocks
10
Related stocks:
Hydropower (VSH,
SJD), Natural
rubber (TRC, DPR),
sugar (BHS)…
The weather is
changing as the
chance of Lanina
increases
Revenue and
profit bottom out
together with
stock price
Valuation looks
attractive again
BSC’s relevant reports: Lanina, Oil, commodity, rubber

11. Main Course: New Stocks
11
Related stocks:
Sabeco, BHN, ACV,
VEAM, Petrolimex,
Vietnam Airline,
Vinatex…
30% of top 10,
40% of top 15,
60% of top 20
will be replaced
by new stocks
New industries
will bring new
growth to the
very old VN
index
These stocks
can bring
Vietnam closer
to Emerging
market

12. New kids on the block
• If the IPO and listing process are
pushed hard enough, we will have USD
15 billion market cap increase .
• 03 New members in top 10
• 06 New members in top 20
• 12 New members in top 30
• What it mean for the market:
• ETF and index tracking funds will be
busy with rebalancing portfolios
• Index will be strongly affected (big
cap with small floating shares)
• You should hurry up If you haven’t had
a few new names in your portfolio,
Source: Bloomberg, BSC
No
Market Cap
(bil USD)
Percent
age
accumulate
d Ticker
1 9,255 14,6% 14,6%VNM
2 6,209 9,8% 24,5%VCB
3 6,122 9,7% 34,1%GAS
4 5,151 8,1% 42,3%VIC
5 2,941 4,7% 46,9%CTG
6 2,661 4,2% 51,1%BID
7 2,378 3,8% 54,9%MSN
8 2,248 3,6% 58,5%BVH
9 1,629 2,6% 61,0%HPG
10 1,090 1,7% 62,8%MBB
11 0,963 1,5% 64,3%FPT
12 0,898 1,4% 65,7%MWG
13 0,863 1,4% 67,1%ROS
14 0,779 1,2% 68,3%STB
15 0,570 0,9% 69,2%EIB
No Company
Market
Cap
1Sabeco 3,00
2ACV 2,25
3BSR 1,58
4Novaland 1,40
5Vietnamairlines 1,12
6Petrolimex 1,02
7Viet Jet 1,00
8Habeco 1,00
9VEAM 0,85
10PV Power 0,64
11PV Oil 0,50
12Vissan 0,29
13Vinatex 0,25
14Vinafor 0,16
15Hancorp 0,06

13. Side dish: Divestment
13
Related stocks:
Sabeco, Habeco,
VNM, VNR, BMI,
NTP, BMP, VCG,
FPT
1100 companies
will go IPO until
2020, leaves
SOEs less than
200 companies
After being
privatized, most
Vietnam SOEs
had significant
improvement
SOEs IPO link
to listed stocks
which can
push the
market size

14. Privatization & divestment to be pushed
• Privatization process will be pushed
due to fiscal budget after 9 month of
slow IPO (only 40).
• Divestment in Sabeco, Habeco, FPT,
FPT telecom, VNR, BMI, BMP, NTP,
HGM, SGC, VIID in 2016 - 2017
• The number of state owned
companies to go IPO and divest is
around 1100 (2016 to 2020)
• Market cap will increase vastly
thanks to new stocks
• Hidden gems are expected (Blue chips
& mid cap), so be prepared.
Source: BSC
109
180
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Number of IPO in Vietnam

15. Drinks: Local oriented
15
Related stocks:
Travel services (VNA,
ACV); Jewelry (PNJ);
Mobile (MWG); Car
(SVC); beverage
(SBC); tobacco…
Growing young
population in
Vietnam (69% in
15 to 64 years
old)
Middle class is
growing faster in
VN than
anywhere else in
ASEAN , doubling
to 33 M (2020)
Young people
Save less, spend
more, use bank
services and be
more
independence

16. Why invest in local oriented sectors ?
Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research
As of 30 Sep 2016
Vietnam GDP almost tripled before crisis • Fuelled by growing incomes and a
young and active consumer base,
retail spending reached US$108bn
by 2016.
• Automobiles market: USD 5.9 billion
• Jewelry market: USD 6.2 billion
• Dairy market: USD 6 billion
• Aviation market: USD 6 billion
• Beer market: USD 3 billion
• Pharmaceutical market: USD 3
billion
• Mobiphone market: USD 3 billion
• Tobacco market of USD 1 billion

17. Dessert: Out of favor
17
Related stocks:
Taxi (VNS), fertilizer
(LAS), JPY/USD
(PPC, REE), textile
(VGG)…
Most investors
don’t want to talk
about these
stocks anymore
Fundamental
factors
improvement is
noticed
These stocks’
price start
bottoming

18. Thank You
Long Tran Head of research
Please feel free to contact me at
E Longtt@bsc.com.vn
P +84 4 39352722 (118)
M +84 906 959 034
S rongbeo
BSC