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Vietnam Investment update
second half 2017 - 2018
Long Tran Head of research
Please feel free to contact me at
E Longtt@bsc.com.vn
P +84 4 39352722 (118)
M +84 906 959 034
S rongbeo
BSC
14/07/2017
Content List
• Investment themes 03
• Retail (consumer) + bank + FOL + Divestment
• Infrastructure
• Turnaround
• Top pick Stocks (2017 - 2018) 08
Investment themes
“for 2018 – 2019 ”
3
Investment themes
4
New Kids on
the block
hunting for
bargain in new
listing (Banks)
& IPO (SOEs)
State
Divestment &
FOL will
dominate in
2017 – 2019
Infrastructure
FDI and FTA
direct and
indirect sectors
Turnaround
Bottom fishing
Oil & Gas,
material stocks
Local grow
oriented. Low
Beta and
organic growth
(retail, utilities,
cosumer)
1 2 3 4 5
Yahoo Finance: Vietnam Is Ready for the second Wave of Privatization
2
+2,254%
+1,246%
+379%
+366%
The second wave of IPO
Top stocks pick: Retail + bank + FOL + Divestment
MarketCap
(bil VND)
Price (VND)
Liquidity
100D (mil)
F A
Sales
2017
PAT
2017
EPS
2017
BVPS
2017
ROA ROE PE FW
PB
FW
Price
30/06
Target
Price
Upside
VNM 226,555 156,100 118,603 47 52,945 11,220 7,733 17,41736.70%46.70% 20.38 9.05 157,600 190,000 20.56%
MWG 31,747 103,200 35,811 2 63,713 2,397 7,785 18,89814.27%41.22% 13.22 5.45 102,900 119,232 15.87%
QNS 20,358 83,500 7,791 44 7,400 1,480 6,090 16,25521.40%37.50% 13.94 5.22 84,900 98,000 15.43%
PNJ 10,122 103,000 20,383 - 10,692 720 6,660 19,630 15% 34% 15.29 5.19 101,800 132,000 29.67%
VHC 9,216 58,400 5,960 73 8,610 692 7,491 33,324 13% 22% 7.88 1.77 59,000 72,900 23.56%
VGG 5,427 61,000 1,868 30 8,097 310 9,156 34,860 7.30%19.20% 6.67 1.75 61,100 70,333 15.11%
RAL 2,690 134,700 3,370 42 3,282 180 11,716 55,048 8% 29% 11.75 2.57 137,700 167,500 21.64%
MBB 37,166 21,700 35,361 3,650 2,033 15,113 1.34%14.50% 10.97 1.52 22,300 26,000 16.59%
ACB 25,831 26,200 86,487 1,616 1,588 14,411 0.64%10.89% 16.3 1.8 25,900 30,200 16.60%
PVI 7,498 33,700 8,042 7263 438 1,758 29,995 2.60% 6.20% 19.17 1.12 33,700 40,000 18.69%
NTP 5,890 66,000 1,613 15 4,663 442 4,621 24,608 12% 22% 11.92.723 67000 89000 32.84%
DIG 3,692 15,500 20,752 19 1,406 128 537 12,008 2.10% 4.50% 29.05 1.3 15,600 19,000 21.79%
VGC 8,198 19,500 6,372 21 8,538 629 1,714 17,337 5.60% 15% 11.38 1.12 19,500 23,700 21.54%
Top stocks pick: infrastructure
MarketCap
(bil VND)
Price (VND)
Liquidity
100D (mil)
F A
Sales
2017
PAT
2017
EPS
2017
BVPS
2017
ROA ROE PE FW
PB
FW
Price
30/06
Target
Price
Upside
GAS 114,036 59,600 39,008 46 68,771 8,111 4,239 22,670 12.37% 19.80% 13.8 2.7 58,300 72,000 23.50%
ACV 110.600 50.500 10.515 46 16.037 4.818 1.962 23.999 9.22% 17.2% 26 2,1 51.000 60.689 19,00%
HPG 49,756 32,800 168,301 13 36,577 7,001 4,612 16,747 17.40% 27.56% 6.94 1.91 32,000 39,200 22.50%
FPT 24,659 46,450 49,919 - 46,619 3,058 4,025 22,391 9.30% 25.72% 11.64 2.09 46,850 54,342 15.99%
CTD 16,467 213,500 27,292 7 27,153 1,750 23,026 99,855 11.90% 23.10% 9.4 2.17 216,500 250,000 15.47%
REE 11,441 36,900 47,362 - 4,242 1,450 3,919 27,758 12% 17% 9.42 1.33 36,900 45,000 21.95%
NT2 8,464 29,400 11,059 27 7,011 1,129 3,567 20,818 9% 19% 8 1.37 28,550 36,000 26.09%
KBC 8,033 17,100 52,367 19 2,407 850 1,146 18,190 5% 9% 14.7 0.93 16,850 20,000 18.69%
PVT 4,095 14,550 10,926 24 6,426 410 1,303 14,496 4% 10% 11.47 1.03 14,950 19,000 27.09%
VSH 3,516 17,050 1,234 34 644 381 1,846 15,563 4% 12% 9.26 1.1 17,100 20,530 20.06%
PC1 3,424 35,000 7,470 29 3,492 306 2,538 24,827 5% 10.70% 14.18 1.45 36,000 43,000 19.44%
VSC 2,825 62,000 7,456 - 1,280 292 6,078 43,198 9% 13% 10.4 1.46 63,200 72,400 14.56%
HUT 2,323 12,200 23,492 32 3,308 466 1,942 14,580 4.70% 13.30% 6.33 0.84 12,300 14,700 19.51%
CTI 1,787 29,300 13,173 21 1,298 152 2,362 20,916 3% 13% 12.87 1.91 30,400 38,300 25.99%
HAH 777 22,900 683 23 520 130 3,578 17,440 12% 15% 6.48 1.33 23,200 30,640 32.07%
Top stocks pick: turnaround
MarketCap
(bil VND)
Price (VND)
Liquidity
100D (mil)
F A
Sales
2017
PAT
2017
EPS
2017
BVPS
2017
ROA ROE PE FW
PB
FW
Price
30/06
Target
Price
Upside
EIB 15,614 12,700 4,873 2 0.27 224 11,226 0.20% 2.01% 57.6 1.17 12,900
HNG 7,863 10,250 27,066 48 4,768 247 313 8,546 34.35 1.26 10,750 20,086 86.85%
PVS 7,728 17,300 24,521 22 18,165 834 1,876 23,680 4.07% 7.60% 9.6 0.7 16,700 20,500 22.75%
PPC 6,363 20,000 2,303 34 6,716 507 1,542 16,601 5% 9% 13.29 1.23 20,500 19,300 -5.85%
VGT 5,550 11,100 528 N/A 15,640 416 467 12,823 2% 5% 24.41 0.89 11,400 13619 19.46%
GEX 5,496 20,600 17,028 43 11,089 770 2,886 23,596 5.70% 12.20% 7.05 0.86 20,350 25,900 27.27%
DRC 3,778 31,800 14,722 17 3,910 292 2,191 14,001 9% 18% 14.63 2.3 32,050 36,500 13.88%
DBC 2,344 28,400 3,892 23 6,548 320 3,270 28,244 5% 14% 7.1 1.01 28,400 32,700 15.14%
PLC 2,262 28,000 854 41 5,244 263.8 3,265 18,684 7.20% 17.48% 8.55 1.49 27,900 35,500 27.24%
DQC 1,478 46,300 2,727 23 1,050 142 3,724 34,438 9% 12% 13.56 1.36 50,500
DRI 875 12,000 2,400 611 101 1,311 10,946 3% 12.20% 9.76 1.2 12,100 15,700 29.75%
Top Pick Stocks
“for 2017 - 2018”
9
Top stocks pick: ipo
Financials 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Total assets (bil đ) 81,157 59,872 65,850 58,053 62,761
Equity (bil đ) 27,343 31,747 35,733 31,138 37,269
Rev (bil đ) 127,224 95,272 73,686 80,629 102,217
NPAT (bil đ) 129 6,099 4,436 7,446 8,341
EPS 2,402 2,690
ROS 0% 6% 6% 9% 8%
ROE 0% 21% 13% 23% 24%
ROA 0% 9% 7% 12% 14%
• Petroleum demand rise 5.6% toward 2035 Vietnam continues to be a net importer of
oil products in the upcoming 5 years. (BSR Market share ~ 30% of gasoline, DO, and
LPG, 9% of Jet A1; 15% of PP
• Improve efficiency. Utilization 110%, can run up to 120%. In Dec, 2014, 1.092 tons of
crude oil  1 tons of products. In August, 2017, 1.081 tons of crude oil  1 tons of
products.
• BSR plans to invest approximately $ 1.8 billion in the upgrade and expansion project,
30% capacity increase to 8.5 million tons of crude oil per year (2021)
• Catalyst: 2018 full year operation -> 20% growth in output vs 2017-> EPS~3,000
• Risk: Crack spread decreases, Oceanbank , BSR-BF; expansion and upgrade projects
BSR
NA VND
Up +NA %
Market cap VND 45,267
bil - Current price VND
14,600/share – PE FW
5.43x – PB FW 1.21x
Low valuation for a Blue-
Chips, still room to improve
efficiency
Top stocks pick: ipo
Financials 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Total assets (bil đ) 23,662 20,445 21,304 21,212 21,257
Equity (bil đ) 9,333 9,912 10,411 10,906 10,951
Rev (bil đ) 66,306 50,910 39,297 52,743 67,073
NPAT (bil đ) (1,372) 674 565 593 638
EPS 568 458 510 549
ROS N/A 1.32% 1.44% 1.12% 0.95%
ROE N/A 6.80% 5.43% 5.43% 5.83%
ROA N/A 3.30% 2.65% 2.79% 3.00%
• The only one company that has been licensed to import and export crude oil
• The second largest petroleum trading company in Vietnam. Distribution capacity will
be about 3.11 million m3/ton in 2016, accounting for approximately 20-22% of the
market demand.
• The general agent (the lowest profit margin segment) accounts for 60% of sales,
industrial customers and retail customers account for 20% each.
• Catalyst: Growth by merger and acquisition activities: With more than 3,500 petrol
stations, equal to about half of those of Petrolimex + retail in stations
• Risk: commitment to continue buying products from Nghi Son and Binh Son
PVoil
19,000 VND
Up +NA %
Market cap VND 13,859
bil - Current price VND
13,400/share – PE FW
24.40x – PB FW 1.41x
Low Market cap compare to
peers for a Blue-Chips, still
room to improve efficiency
Top stocks pick: ipo
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rev 23,380 24,356 23,231 28,030 30,742
NPAT (bil đ) 584 2,808 1,483 1,496 2,303
EPS (đ/share) 401 1,536 451 441 680
ROS 2.50% 11.53% 6.38% 5.34% 7.49%
ROE 4.46% 21.42% 5.63% 5.58% 9.52%
ROA 1.14% 5.71% 2.10% 2.15% 3.36%
BVPS(đ/share) 8,168 6,607 10,000 10,000 8,505
• Demand for electricity will continue to rise > capacity growth of CAGR=7% (to 2020)
• PVP is among the lowest investment-per-MW power generation companies.
PVPower’s investment-per-MW stood at about 16.9 bil, while Genco 1 was 21.2
bil/mw, Genco 2: 19 bil/MW, Genco 3=17.6 bil/MW and TKV= 19.1 bil/MW.
• PVP power plant mostly were built in the Southern, increasing utilization rate. Most of
gas turbine plants namely NT1, Nt2, Ca Mau 1,2 are located in the South
• Catalyst: Wholesales Competitive Generation Market- WCM which is expected to be
launched in 2019
• Investment risk. Increasing in gas, Exchange rate fluctuation. As of 30/6/2017
PVPower had USD debt of 890 mil and EUR debt of 72 mil. We estimate increase of
1% in USDVND brings VND 173 bil loss.
PVPower
21,200 VND
Up +na%
Market cap VND 33,723
bil - Current price VND
14,400/share – PE FW
18.58x – PB FW 1.68x
Low valuation for a Blue-
Chips, still room to improve
efficiency
Top stocks pick: Infrastructure
VND Billion 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Revenue 18,934 25,525 27,453 33,283 42,590 54,680
Total Asset 23,076 22,089 25,507 33,227 48,985 65,881
Equity 9,500 11,965 14,467 19,850 32,476 38,115
Gross Profit 3,284 5,187 5,594 8,751 9,723 11,086
EAT 2,010 3,250 3,504 6,606 7,741 8,718
Gross Margin 17.34% 20.32% 20.38% 26.29% 23.0% 20%
ROA 8.71% 14.71% 13.74% 19.88% 15.80% 13.23%
ROE 21.16% 27.16% 24.22% 33.28% 23.84% 22,88%
EPS 1,467 2,328 3,928 4,470 5,056 5,717
BVPS 7,133 8,857 10,696 14,623 21,405 25,122
• Galvanizing factory and 1st phase of the Dung Quat factory project are the growth
motivation for 2018. The 400,000 tons/year galvanized steel factory located in the
North is expected to be put into operation in early 2018
• Profits from real estate. HPG will record revenue from the Mandarin Garden 2 project
by the end of 2017. With a selling price of about VND28-30 million/m2, HPG may
record over VND 4,4 trillion in sales and around VND400 billion in gross profit.
In 2018, revenue is expected to increase 16% to over 40 trillion and gross profit is
approximately 15 trillion.
HPG
56,300VND Up
+20%
Mkt Cap VND 71,067.2 bil
– Current price VND
46,850 – PE FW 8.43, PB
FW 1.92 – FO 41.45%
Low valuation for a Blue-
Chips and demand,
capacity and market share
have potential to grow
Top stocks pick: Infrastructure
VND Billion 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Revenue 11,772 15,005 17,469 18,006 26,149 31,065
Total Asset 7,142 10,205 9,440 12,309 21,438 23,697
Equity 2,210 2,379 2,910 4,129 5,169 7,574
Gross Profit 1,707 1,750 2,577 4,176 4,418 4,850
EAT 580 410 652 1,504 1,331 1,605
Gross Margin 14,50% 11,66% 14,75% 23,19% 16.92% 15.61%
ROA 8,12% 4,02% 6,91% 12,22% 6.17% 6.77%
ROE 26,24% 17,23% 22,41% 36,43% 25.74% 21.19%
EPS 4,261 6,691 9,026 3,672 4,585
BVPS 23,605 28,879 21,013 14,260 21,563
The second largest steel industry and the leading galvanised industry. HSG's
galvanized steel sheet consumption now stands at 1.2 million tonnes, market
share of HSG in 2017 is 33.5%, leading the market with more than 340 retail
branches (opened more than 100 branches this year).
Plastic pipe sector will contribute to HSG's earnings in the coming time. Although
HSG has started to produce plastic pipes, the current market share of HSG is
about 8%; Taking advantage of the advantages of distribution system and
discount policy, HSG has been able to compete with big players in the industry
such as BMP and NTP
Similar to other galvanizing companies such as NKG, HSG also benefited from low
domestic HRC supply from Formosa and Dung Quat steel project in Hoa Phat.
HSG
32,800 VND
Up +22.5%
Mkt Cap VND 8,574 bil –
Current price VND 24,500
– PE FW 2018 5.34x – PB
FW 1.23– FO 25.31%
Low valuation for a Blue-
Chips and demand,
capacity and efficiency to
improve
Top stocks pick: Infrastructure
VND Billion 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Revenue 4,668 5,844 5,756 8,941 13,698 17,160
Total Asset 2,323 2,936 3,572 6,390 8,250 9,261
Equity 329 506 639 1,580 2,367 3,378
Gross Profit 301 317 446 1,011 1,495 1,888
EAT 51.8 76.6 156.4 607.7 806 1,011
Gross Margin 6.45% 5.42% 7.75% 11.31% 10.91% 11.00%
ROA 1.11% 1.31% 2.72% 6.80% 9.77% 10.92%
ROE 15.74% 15.14% 24.48% 38.46% 34.05% 29.93%
EPS 1,734 2,282 3,052 10,398 7,675 7,776
BVPS 11,031 12,693 14,567 23,934 22,542 25,983
• Strong growth in capacity and improved profit margin: 1Q2018 the NOF galvanized
steel sheet will be in operation, capacity of 350,000 tons/yr, improve total capacity of
NKG to 1.2 million tons, increase sharply but still only half the capacity of HSG.
• Expanding advertising campaign to improve brandname.
• Cheap HRC supply comes from the domestic market (Formosa Ha Tinh), about 30% of
NKG's HRC demand, minimizing exchange rate risk.
NKG
51,300 VND
Up +22.5%
Mkt Cap VND 5,044 bil –
Current price 38,800 – PE
FW 4.99 – PB FW 1.49 –
FO 52.61%
Low valuation and capacity
to improve
Top stocks pick: Bank
Thousand bil. VND 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Total asset 121 163 194 229 265 313
Total loans 52 78 117 145 181 226
NII 4.15 5.29 10.35 15.17 20.54 25.63
Profit before provision 2.38 2.59 6.37 10.24 16.21 20.24
EAT 1.02 1.25 2.40 3.94 6.35 8.60
% yoy 58.2% 23.2% 91.1% 64.2% 61% 35.4%
EPS 1,764 1,975 2,974 4,286 4,045 5,478
Book value 10,002 14,148 16,619 18,710 20,604 23,739
ROE 17.63% 17.00% 21.42% 25.75% 26% 24.71%
ROA 0.91% 0.88% 1.34% 1.86% 3% 2.98%
• Leader and pioneer in consumer finance (FECredit ~ 48% market shares, 60% of loans
growth 2014-2017, ~88% NII growth from 2015-2017). Robust growth. Loans up by
15.9% ytd, in which FECredit up by 28% ytd. NII increased by 41% yoy, FECredit rose
by 47% yoy, contributed 56% to consolidated NII  EAT up by 72% in 9M2017
• High profitable. NIM at 8.76%, the highest among listed banks, NIM of FE ~24.4%. Low
CIR at 35.96%. VPB has the strongest ROA, ROE at 2.48% and 23.54%, respectively.
• BSC forecasted that EAT 2017 = VND 6,354 bil, EAT 2018 = VND 8,603 Bil (+35% yoy),
EPS 2018 = VND 5,478/share.
Catalysts: FEcredit booming; new listed banks at high valuation
VPB
47,800 VND
Up +17%
Mkt Cap $2.73 Bil – Current
price VND 40,800/share – P/E
FW 7.45x – P/B 1.98x – FO 25%.
Be leader and pioneer in
consumer finance
Have growth potential
thanks to
Top stocks pick: Bank
Thousand bil. VND 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Total asset 167 180 201 234 276 328
Total loans 107 116 134 163 197 235
NII 4.39 4.77 5.88 6.89 8.25 9.88
Profit before provision 1,890 2,193 2,199 2,885 4.97 6.32
EAT 826 952 1,028 1,325 2.24 3.25
% yoy 5% 15% 8% 29% 68.84% 45.23%
EPS 826 952 1,028 1,325 2,219 3,245
Book value 13,221 13,832 12,970 14,264 14,984 17,934
ROE 6.58% 7.64% 8.17% 9.87% 14.76% 18.20%
ROA 0.48% 0.55% 0.54% 0.61% 0.88% 1.08%
• Credit growth will be high thanks to short-term fund for medium and long-term fund
just 24.27%, low pure LDR of approximately 78.83% (9M2017)
• NIM was high, at 3.31% in 9M2017 and are expected to continue improving due to (1)
promoting transaction banking segment; (2) promoting retail banking segment; (3)
boosting the ratio of loans / deposits to 80%;
• Good asset quality. NPL ratio = 1.04% (9M2017), the total doubtful assets = VND 10
trillion, 63% of equity. Strong loan loss coverage ratio = 151%, in which, the ratio
(excluding loan loss provision of G6) =110%.
• Catalyst: Completion of provision for debt of G6 one year earlier, repurchase and
handle the entire NPL sold for VAMC and new listed banks at high valuation
ACB
43,500 VND
Up +18%
Mkt Cap $1.16 Bil – Current
price VND 25,900/share –
P/E FW 16.03x – P/B 1.80x
Have growth potential
thanks to good ratio +
Profit up thanks to NPL
collection and VAMC
treatment
Top stocks pick: Bank
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Total asset 180 200 221 256 292 332
Total loans 88 101 121 151 182 215
NII 6.1 6.5 7.3 8.0 11 13
Profit before provision 4.91 5.19 5.32 5.68 7.98 9.30
EAT 2.28 2.48 2.50 2.86 4.24 6.05
% yoy -1% 9% 1% 15% 48% 43%
EPS 2,145 2,073 1,786 1,706 2,241 3,192
Book value 13,458 14,284 14,121 14,318 14,990 17,616
ROE 16.25% 15.62% 12.75% 12.15% 16.39% 20.44%
ROA 1.28% 1.30% 1.18% 1.20% 1.55% 1.94%
• 2017 EBT is estimated at VND 6,200 bil (+70% yoy). BSC forecast that 2018 EAT will be
VND 6,050 bil, +43% yoy, EPS of VND 3,192/share.
• High profitability, NIM was 4.07%, just behind VPB while low CIR = 40.69%, only
higher than TCB, VPB. The bank’s expected ROE = 15% over the next three years. MBB
sold 49% of Mcredit to Shinsei  increase MBB’s BV by ~ VND 490 bil
• Good asset quality. NPL ratio = 1.33% (9M2017). Total doubtful assets = VND19
trillion, 66% of equity. The loan loss coverage ratio = 87%. MBB will finish making
provision for VAMC bond in mid-2018.  Provision cost will decline sharply
Catalyst: Divestment from Mcredit, Mbland; Mcredit booming; M&A with Pgbank; and
new listed banks at high valuation
MBB
30,700 VND
Up +18%
Mkt Cap $2.05 Bil – P/E
FW 8.0x – P/B 1.4x – FO
20%
One of the cheapest in P/B,
solid asset quality and
potential in Mcredit
Top stocks pick: Bank
Thousand bil. VND 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M2017
Total asset 79,594 100,802 107,587 141,865 148,049
Total loans 29,548 41,289 56,165 79,676 94,867
NII 2,271 2,291 2,894 4,024 3,903
Profit before provision 947 762 924 1,840 1,907
EAT 566 466 350 1,063 1,126
% yoy -17% -25% 204% 61%
EPS 815 685 524 1,582 1,743.0
Book value 11,256 11,441 11,766 12,898 14,150
ROE 7.72% 6.36% 4.67% 13.34% 4.70%
ROA 0.78% 0.52% 0.34% 0.85% 0.29%
• Sustainable growth. Loans increased by 19% ytd, deposit up 10% ytd in 9M2017. Low
pure LDR of 77%  room for growth. 2017 EBT is estimated at VND 1,700 bil, + 26%
yoy, EPS 2017 of VND 1,895/share.
• Improve profitability. Strong NIM up to 3.68% in 9M2017 from 3.5% in 2016 thanks to
great transaction accounts at 31.38%, the highest proportion among listed banks.
ROA = 1.04% sector 0.73%, ROE = 17.24% sector 12.48%.
• Asset quality. NPL ratio was low at 1.19%, if including VAMC bonds, the ratio up to
2.4%. NPL coverage ratio was high at 105
• Catalyst: Divestment from STB, Private offering, dividend and New listed banks at high
valuation
LPB
20,500VND
Up +59%
Mkt USD 0.37 bil – current
price VND 12,900/share –
P/E FW 6.81x P/B 0.91x,
FO 0%
Attractive valuation. P/B
of 0.91x vs sector of
1.45x.
Top stocks pick: Bank
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Total asset 86,227 99,525 106,486 150,294 188,157 237,512
Total loans 44,030 41,993 56,559 82,224 111,000 148,510
NII 309 1,629 3,245 4,678
Profit before provision 432 1,079 1,723 2,141 - -
EAT 218 477 513 738 1,744 2,869
% yoy -33.3% 136.3% 64%
EPS 269 589 630 911 1,778 2,866
Book value 10,617 11,356 12,150 12,275 14,598 17,635
ROE 3.11% 5.36% 6.62% 9.24% 13.23% 17.80%
ROA 0.31% 0.51% 0.61% 0.71% 1.03% 1.35%
• Medium size is expanding. Chartered capital was VND 9,810 bil on 31st Dec, 2017.
equity of the bank will be VND 17,452 bil BV VND 19,833/share at the end 2018.
• Strong growth. From 2012-2016, CAGR of loans was 40.4%, the highest, CAGR of
deposit was 31.8%, the highest growth, CAGR of operating profit was 37%, just
behind VPB. In 9M2017, EAT was VND 1,538 bil, EPS of VND 1,583/share. HDB targets
to get VND 2,372 bil in 2017 (+107% yoy) and VND 3,972 bil in 2018 (+65.3% yoy).
• HDSaison, a subsidiary of HDBank, is the 3rd consumer finance in Vietnam with
market share of about 12.15%, focusing on motorbike loans. Credit grew by 73%/ year
from 2013-2016 and up by 12% in 9M2017.
• Catalysts. HDSaison booming & New listed banks at high valuation
HDB
49,500 VND
Up +25%
Mkt USD 1.73 bil – current
price VND 39,750/share –
P/E FW 13.86x, P/B
2.72x, FO 21.89%
Potential in consumer
finance
Top stocks pick: retail + consumer
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Revenue 9,499 15,757 25,253 44,613 64,091 86,487
Total Asset 2,232 3,407 7,266 14,854 17,198 17,679
Equity 800 1,475 2,484 3,841 5,810 6,290
EAT 258 674 1,076 1,578 2,200 2,681
Net Margin 2.72% 4.28% 4.26% 3.54% 3.43% 3.10%
ROA 11.58% 19.77% 14.81% 10.62% 12.79% 15.17%
ROE 32.30% 45.68% 43.32% 41.09% 37.87% 42.62%
EPS 2,390 3,653 5,125 6,939 8,457
BVPS 5,270 8,461 12,472 18,335 19,853
• Finishing M&A of TAG, more chance to expand to the North of Vietnam. We expect at
the current scale of TAG, MWG’s PAT for the year 2018 increase about VND 139 billion
• M&A Phuc An Khang retail chain of pharmaceuticals with high prospect, according to
BSC‘s discussion with some private pharmacies, PBT margin can reach 10%
• Green Grocery Chain is improving after changing to new model, gross margin is
improved
• Catalyst: Expanding to the North, Entering pharmaceutical retail, Green Grocery Chain
having net profit
MWG
169,800 VND
Up +15.9%
Market cap VND 41,508
bil – Current price VND
131,000/share – PE FW
15.49x – PB FW 6.60x –
FO 49%
Growth potiential in retail
business
Top stocks pick: IT and retail
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Revenue 27,028 32,645 37,960 39,531 42,170 20,775
Total Asset 17,571 22,658 26,046 29,833 28,774 28,825
Equity 7,206 9,255 10,180 11,445 14,347 14,398
EAT 2,065 2,079 2,438 2,576 2,905 2,956
Net Margin 7.64% 6.37% 6.42% 6.52% 6.89% 14.23%
ROA 11.75% 9.18% 9.36% 8.63% 10.10% 10.25%
ROE 28.66% 22.46% 23.95% 22.50% 20.25% 20.53%
EPS 3,081 3,121 3,811 3,925 4,219 4,457
BVPS 13,783 15,130 16,325 18,032 27,026 27,121
• Divesting in Retail and Distribution Segment, becoming a Software – Telecom
Company, re-rate PE = 15.4x for the year 2018 (in the year 2017, we estimate FPT will
have VND 1,125 billion from divesting 40% ownership in FRT and VND 192 billion from
divesting 52% in FPT Trading. EPS 2017 core = VND 4,219 and total EPS 2017 = VND
6,204, PE 2017 = 9.2x)
• Software Outsourcing continues to be the key driver with revenue in 11M2017 of
VND 5,514 billion (+18%yoy) and PBT of VND 898 billion (+21%yoy, accounting for
42% total PBT of Technology and Telecom Segments). In which, Japan is the main
market, accounting for 58% total revenue and has more room for expanding
 Catalyst: divestment of SCIC in 2018, listing FRT on the HSX in April 2018
FPT
68,700 VND
(+16% yoy)
Mkt cap VND 30,313.18
bil – Current price VND
57,100/share – PE FW
12.81x – PB FW 2.11x –
FO 49%
Leading Stock with low
valuation level +
divestment
Top stocks pick: IT and retail
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Revenue 27,028 32,645 37,960 39,531 42,170 20,775
Total Asset 17,571 22,658 26,046 29,833 28,774 28,825
Equity 7,206 9,255 10,180 11,445 14,347 14,398
EAT 2,065 2,079 2,438 2,576 2,905 2,956
Net Margin 7.64% 6.37% 6.42% 6.52% 6.89% 14.23%
ROA 11.75% 9.18% 9.36% 8.63% 10.10% 10.25%
ROE 28.66% 22.46% 23.95% 22.50% 20.25% 20.53%
EPS 3,081 3,121 3,811 3,925 4,219 4,457
BVPS 13,783 15,130 16,325 18,032 27,026 27,121
• Improved gross profit margin due to growth of scale: in 9M2017, GPM was 14.62%,
better than 9M2016 (13.6%). We estimate that FRT's gross margin in 2018 could
reach over 15% as the current FRT size is equivalent to MWG scale in the period 2014
and 2015 with MWG's gross margin at that time of 15.21% and 15.53% respectively
• Expanding Apple Stores in Vietnam, the prospects come from Apple's trend which is
gradually penetrating into the Vietnamese youth
• BSC forecasts that FRT's EBT in FY2018 will come to VND456 billion (+42% yoy) and
FY2018 EAT will come to VND365 billion (+42% yoy). EPS 2018 = VND 9,119 (40 million
shares)
• Catalyst: Listed on the HSX in April 2018
FRT
141,000 VND
(+16% yoy)
Mkt cap VND 3,400 bil –
Current price VND
85,000/share – PE FW
9.32x – PB FW 3.86x – FO
35%
Leading Stock with low
valuation leve, retail and
consumption potential
Top stocks pick: retail
2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Revenue (bil VND) 9.199 7.706 8.565 10.578 13,337
Total asset 2.829 2.976 3.588 4.408 6,067
Total equity 1.297 1.315 1.500 3.026 3.823
Gross profit (BIl VND) 889 1.168 1.411 1.903 2.474
EAT 242 76 450 748 993.5
GP margin 9.7% 15.2% 16.48% 18.1% 18.7%
ROA 9% 3% 13% 17% 16%
ROE 19% 6% 30% 25% 26%
EPS 3.200 769 4.584 6.228 8,271
BVPS 17.150 13.383 15.267 28,000 35,372
• The leading jewelry producer and retailer in market share. PNJ has the largest store
network of 260 as the end of November 2017, plan at 300 store by Apr 2018. We
expected that average revenue per store in 2018F will reach VND 42.3 billion per
store (+6.1% yoy).
• BSC expected to achieve more than 15% of SSSG in 2018. SSSG expand significantly in
2017 to 22% in 9M2017. Its supply chain is learning from Wal-mart and H&M
Accessories’s network.
• 2018 business result. PNJ's revenue estimated 13,337 billion VND, up 26% YoY, Gross
profit was 2,474 billion (+30% YoY). The gross margin 18.7% (2016 18.1%) thanks to
gold jewelry retail. EBT reached VND 993.5 billion (+32% YoY). EPS 2018F = 8,271 VND
per share.
PNJ
155,300 VND
(+29.6% yoy)
Mkt cap USD 629.1 million
– P/E FW 16.3x, P/B FW
3.8, FO: 49%
Leading Stock in retail with
huge potential jewelry
market
Top stocks pick: FOL + Divestment
VND BIL 2014 2015 2016 2017 (F) 2018 (F)
Gross premium 5987 7248 6528 6650 7471
% yoy -2.3% 21.1% -9.9% 1.9% 12.3%
Underwriting profit -224.5 -125.0 44.9 43.2 47.9
Combined ratio 107% 103% 99% 99% 99%
Financial profit 517 819 656 616 714
Total Asset 18,330 15,495 16,643 19,267 20,881
Total Equity 6,191 6,734 6,821 7,354 7,970
Total Investment value 9,244 7,659 7,299 8,450 10,850
PBT 361 708 714 659 762
PAT 246 576 574 532 616
EPS 1,190 2,564 2,304 2,139 2,474
BVPS 26,431 28,748 29,121 31,395 34,024
ROA 1.3% 3.7% 3.4% 2.8% 3.0%
ROE 4.0% 8.6% 8.4% 7.2% 7.7%
 Sales growth from the recovery in Oil & Gas clients, along with the expansion in retail
segments of PVI
 2018-2019, approximately VND2.400 bil revenue is expected from the Embassy
Garden real estate project, which is implemented by VAD – one of PVI’s subsidiaries.
Almost all of this project has been sold and the project will delivered in Q3/2018.
 Catalyst: FOL raised to 100% in the AGM, PVN divestment, abnormal earning: PVI
Tower – VND 1,000 Bil book value and estimated VND 350 Bil of PBT.
PVI
41,750 VND
(+30.5% yoy)
Mkt Cap $313 Mil –
Current price 32,000
VND/cp – P/E Forward
19.1x – P/B forward 1.1x
– FO 49%
Cheap Valuation compare to
peer (P/B 1.3x), rerate is
likely after FOL lift up and
PVN divestment
Top stocks pick: FOL + divestment
Financial indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Revenue (Bil. VND) 2,481 2,998 3,556 4,354 4,663 4,941
Total asset (Bil. VND) 1,811 2,580 3,252 3,420 4,007 3,416
Equity (Bil. VND) 1,226 1,466 1,719 1,833 2,196 2,387
EAT (Bil. VND) 290 325 366 398 473 516
% growth y-o-y -1% 12% 13% 9% 11% +9%
EPS (VND per share) 6,681 5,769 5,715 5,346 4,621 5,319
Book value (VND per
share)
28,290 26,019 27,741 24,654 24,621 25,736
ROS 12% 11% 10% 0% 9% 10%
ROE 25% 24% 23% 22% 22% 24%
ROA 17% 15% 13% 12% 12% 14%
• Capacity 171,000 tons vs BMP’s of 150,000 tons (9M2017’s NTP output = BMP’s = 84K
tons). NTP’s normal discount rate of 30% (up to 60%), while BMP’s was 15%
• NTP’s revenue of VND 3,329 bil, net profit of VND 363 bil including VND 70 bil EBT
from issuance of the South Tien Phong plastic, OPM of 11.17% (9M2017). BMP’s
revenue of VND 2,619 bil, net profit of VND 348 bil., OPM of 16.81%.
• Scenario 1: PVC price up by 5%, distributor policy unchanged,  2017EAT = VND 473
bil, 2018 EAT = VND 483 bil, respectively.
• Scenario 2: PVC price up by 5%, cost to distributors/revenue declined to 6% in 2018
 2018EAT = VND 631 bil,+33% yoy. EPS = VND 6,507/share.
NTP
89,000 VND
(+32.8% yoy)
Mkt Cap $278 Mil –
Current price VND
70,000/share – P/E FW
13.16x– P/B 2.84x – FO
26%.
Leading plastic for
construction with room to
raise GM (after divestment)
Top stocks pick: Infrastructure
VND bn 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Net Revenue 6,190 7,634 13,669 20,783 28,470 33,485
Total Asset 4,552 4,863 7,815 11,741 14,194 17,190
Equity 2,302 2,527 3,243 6,234 7,992 9,890
Gross profit 464 556 1,112 1,799 2,278 2,545
EAT 280 357 733 1,422 1,779 1,898
Gross margin 7.5% 7.3% 8%.1 8.7% 8.0% 7.6%
ROA 6.1% 7.4% 9.4% 12.1% 12.5% 11%
ROE 12.2% 14.1% 22.6% 22.8% 22.3% 19.2%
EPS 18,680 18,460 19,330 21,510 20,293 21,651
BVPS 81,890 80,900 81,890 84,880 103,724 128,363
• A huge backlog: CTD’s backlog as of 30/09/2017 was VND25,567bn (+20%yoy). We
forecast that total new contract value signed in 2017 reach VND33,320bn and the
backlog as of end-2017 will rise by 21% YoY to VND27,207bn. The new contract value
signed in 2018 is expected to increase by 13% to VND37,372 bn.
• BSC supposed that the gross margin of CTD will decrease to 8% in 2017 and 7.6% in
2018.due to (1) the higher competition, (2) The increase price of raw material as
steel, sand, rock.., (3) The higher contribution of mid-end and affordable apartment,
• Strong balance sheet with no any interest based debts, so CTD is not impacted by the
up and down of interest rate and has almost no default risk.
CTD
280,000 VND
(+25.6% yoy)
Market Cap: VND 16,551 bn
–P/E FW 10.3x, P/B FW
1.7, FO: 49%
Leading Stock in
infrastructure with low
valuation level
Top stocks pick: Infrastructure
VND bn 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F
Net Revenue 342.7 522.7 1,397.0 2,513.4 2,868
Total Asset 934.0 1,755.8 2,986.8 4,627.0 5,512
Equity 633 1,003 1,584 3,245 4,353
Gross profit 205.9 301.8 659.2 1,051.6 1,709
NPATMI 82.8 152.2 270.0 465.2 779
Gross margin 60.1% 59.6% 47.3% 42.0% 59.8%
ROA 6.6% 6.8% 7.6% 8% 14%
ROE 13.1% 15.2% 17.0% 14.3% 18%
EPS 1,489 1,928 2,188 1,746 2,590
BVPS 11,991 13,370 13,506 12,822 15,224
• Strong deliveries in Q4 will help DXG to outperform their business plan 2017.
9M2017 DXG’s NPATMI reach VND459.9 billion, mainly driven by the deliveries of
Luxcity and solid growth in wholesales brokerage segment.
• We forecast that the number of brokered units in 2017F and 2018F reach 16,000 units
(+100% yoy) and 19,200 units (+20% yoy) respectively. we expected DXG will take an
advantage of the trend from high-end to mid-end/affordable in housing segment.
• The revenue of development segment will increase significantly in 2018. In 2018,
DXG will deliveries 5 project as Opal Riverside, Lux Garden, Opal Garden, Lux
Riverview, Opal Skyview.
DXG
28,000 VND
(+26.1% yoy)
Target price: 28,000 VND
– P/E FW 5.9x, P/B FW
1.1, FO: 31.9%
Leading Stock in real
estate & reasonable
valuation
Top stocks pick: Infrastructure
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F
Revenue (VND bn) 6,091 8,009 7,820 8,139 8,589 9,432
% growth 31% -2% 4% 6% 10%
Total asset 11,217 12,317 11,663 12,989 14,813 17,153
Total equity 1,415 2,940 3,302 4,367 6,852 7,677
Gross profit (VND bn) 1,170 1,598 1,717 2,106 2,353 2,469
EAT 30 315 328 514 643 723
GP margin 19% 20% 22% 24% 25% 25%
ROA 0.30% 3.10% 3.40% 3.96% 4.34% 4.21%
ROE 3% 17% 13% 12% 9% 9%
EPS - - 1,242 1,826 1,561 1,437
•Industrial zone high growth : It is estimated that about 120 ha of VGC’s blank area will
be occupied in 2018, mainly in Yen Phong Phase 2, Dong Van, Phu Ha…, Revenue is
projected to be VND 1,570 bn (+34.4% YoY).
•Revenue of building material sector slight rise. In 2018, VGC's porcelain sanitary ware
will expand its capacity by 60% when My Xuan factory goes into operation. Tiles segment
capacity is going to rise by 2.5 million m2 in Viglacera Ha Noi.
•Estimated business results in 2018. In 2018, Viglacera's revenue is estimated to grow
by 9.8% YoY to VND 9,432 bn with the net income of VND 723 bn. The projected EPS is
about VND 1,437 per share (9% of net income for bonus and welfare fund).
• Catalyst: FDI flow & FTAs (11 signed, 4 on the track).
VGC
20,000 VND
(+18.7% yoy)
- Mkt cap USD 493.5
million – Target price:
31.993 VND – Dividend
yield: 3.4% - P/E 18.2 FW
x, P/B FW 1.53x – FO:
18.7%
Leading Stock in Industry
zone (FDI, FTA trend) &
Top stocks pick: Infrastructure
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Rev 2,413 2,629 2,643 3,659 3,982 4,727
Total Asset 6,954 8,369 9,293 10,825 12,290 14,283
Equity 5,197 5,910 6,334 7,156 8,745 10,527
Gross profit 603 803 891 1,182 1,314 1,449
EAT 976 932 888 1,174 1,550 1,746
Gross Margin 25% 31% 34% 32% 33% 31%
ROA 14% 11% 10% 11% 13% 12%
ROE 19% 16% 14% 16% 18% 17%
EPS 3,701 3,328 3,164 3,526 4,190 4,720
BVPS 19,708 21,965 23,494 23,080 28,203 33,950
•M&E segment: at the end of Sep 2017, backlog has reached VND 5.25 trillion, securing
about 10% increase in revenue of this segment in 2018 reaching about VND 2,200 bil,
•Investments in PPC, VSH, TMP and Ba Ha river are expected to provide stable earnings
in 2018. Currently, REE invests about VND 5,700 in which electricity accounts for 86%,
water resources 11%. In 2018, we forecast that PPC (REE’s main investment in electricity
will record revenue and NPAT of VND 6,574 bil and VND 980 bil.
•Office leasing: E-Tower at 11 Doan Van Bo completed, adding 35.000 m2 with average
leasing rate of about 28 usd/m2 (fill 100% in 2018). In 2018 we forecast that Revenue
from Office leasing will stand at 943 bil (+80%yoy), accounted for about 20% REE’s total
revenue. Net margin is expected to be stable at about 50%.
•Catalyst: divestment 3.4% in coal
REE
43,200 VND
(+18.7% yoy)
Mkt Cap VND 12,867 bil –
Current price VND
41,500– PE FW 2018=
8.79x- FO 49%
Leading Stock in M&E and
investment in powerplants
Top stocks pick: bottom Fishing + Divestment
Financial indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F
Revenue (VND billion) 3,251 3,318 3,361 3,621 4,021
Total asset 3,137 3,143 2,815 2,658 3,230
Total equity 1,536 1,673 1,582 1,592 1,683
EAT 353 415 395 197 229
% growth YoY 17.66% -4.78% -50.21% 16.60%
EPS (VND/share) 4,246 4,785 3,327 1,390 1,766
Book value (VND/share) 16,807 18,307 13,318 13,404 14,166
Gross profit margin 25% 24% 21% 14% 14%
ROS 11% 13% 12% 5% 6%
ROE 23% 25% 25% 12% 14%
• DRC’s capacity: 0.3 mil. Radial, 0.78 mil auto tires, 2 mil motorbike tires, 5 mil bicycle
tires. CSM’s: 0.35 mil Radial, 1.2 mil auto tires, 6 mil motorbike, 4.9 mil. bicycle tires.
• DRC operates at 100% of Radial capacity (~50% export) while CSM did at ~ 25% Radial
capacity. 2018Q4, DRC will run phase 2 raise the capacity of Radial to 0.6 mill. Radial
demand in Vietnam (expect +5% YoY), (exported price is 50% lower vs domestic).
• The price of rubber is expected to be stable in 2018-2023, keeping at 25% lower than
the price in 2017Q1, can help DRC recover the profit in 2018.
• DRC’s revenue and profit is expected to be VND 4,037 bil (+11.5% YoY) and VND 230
bil (+16.8% YoY), equivalent to EPS 2018 of VND 1,768/share.
• Catalyst: divestment; Trend of shifting from bias tires to radial tires
DRC
31,900 VND
(+31% yoy)
Mkt Cap VND 3,029 Bil –
Current price VND
24.200/share – P/E FW
13.7x – P/B 1.9x – FO
25.36%
Leading Stock in tire, beaten
in 2017
Top stocks pick: Infrastructure
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Net Rev 2,413 2,629 2,643 3,659 3,982 4,727
Total Asset 6,954 8,369 9,293 10,825 12,290 14,283
Equity 5,197 5,910 6,334 7,156 8,745 10,527
Gross profit 603 803 891 1,182 1,314 1,449
EAT 976 932 888 1,174 1,550 1,746
Gross Margin 25% 31% 34% 32% 33% 31%
ROA 14% 11% 10% 11% 13% 12%
ROE 19% 16% 14% 16% 18% 17%
EPS 3,701 3,328 3,164 3,526 4,190 4,720
BVPS 19,708 21,965 23,494 23,080 28,203 33,950
•M&E segment: at the end of Sep 2017, backlog has reached VND 5.25 trillion, securing
about 10% increase in revenue of this segment in 2018 reaching about VND 2,200 bil,
•Investments in PPC, VSH, TMP and Ba Ha river are expected to provide stable earnings
in 2018. Currently, REE invests about VND 5,700 in which electricity accounts for 86%,
water resources 11%. In 2018, we forecast that PPC (REE’s main investment in electricity
will record revenue and NPAT of VND 6,574 bil and VND 980 bil.
•Office leasing: E-Tower at 11 Doan Van Bo completed, adding 35.000 m2 with average
leasing rate of about 28 usd/m2 (fill 100% in 2018). In 2018 we forecast that Revenue
from Office leasing will stand at 943 bil (+80%yoy), accounted for about 20% REE’s total
revenue. Net margin is expected to be stable at about 50%.
•Catalyst: divestment 3.4% in coal
REE
43,200 VND
(+18.7% yoy)
Mkt Cap VND 12,867 bil –
Current price VND
41,500– PE FW 2018=
8.79x- FO 49%
Leading Stock in M&E and
investment in powerplants
Top stocks pick: Turnaround
2014 2015 2016 2017 (F) 2018 (F)
Net revenue 31,704 23,357 18,682 18,165 22,623
% yoy 25% -26% -20% -3% 25%
Equity 10,787 11,875 11,752 13,597 14,491
Chartered Capital 4467 4467 4467 5896 5896
Gross Margin 2,594 2,175 783 959 1,373
PAT 1,991 1,494 910 834 978
Gross Margin 8.2% 9.3% 4.2% 5.3% 6.1%
ROE 18.46% 12.58% 7.74% 6.13% 6.75%
ROS 6.3% 6.4% 4.9% 4.6% 4.3%
EPS 3,890 2,989 2,046 1,876 2,200
BVPS 18,516 24,524 26,584 26,309 27,010
• EPC rebound in 2018, with the contribution of Ca Rong Do project ( VND 8,200 Bil for
2017-2019). Some major onshore projects include Long Phu Thermal ( VND 5,600 Bil
for 2017-2020); and Long Son Refinery project (2018-2020)
• Exploration activities. rental price is just enough for break-even, it is still a huge
improvement from the loss of VND 252 Bil in 2016
• Long-term prospect is promising with Lo B O Mon and Ca Voi Xanh at sight.
• Catalyst: Possibilities of receiving indemnification from FPSO Lam Son for early
contract termination.~ VND 1,200 Bil ( VND 300 Bil @ 4 years) – Likely to receive VND
1000 bil and the FPSO contract will extend further with half of rental rate.
PVS
20,500 VND
(+22% yoy)
Mkt Cap $347 Mil – Current
price 16,800 VND/cp – P/E
Forward 8.9x – P/B forward
0.6x
Leading Stock in oil and gas
with the change to
turnaround in 2-3 years +
diversified business
Top stocks pick: Infrastructure
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F
Net Rev 4,961 5,268 5,761 6,734 6,426
Total Asset 9,546 9,349 9,656 9,070 9,112
Equity 2,819 3,131 3,397 3,573 4,080
Gross profit 559 549 777 762 682
EAT 314 402 433 457 410
Gross Margin 11% 10% 13% 11% 11%
ROA 3% 4% 4% 5% 4%
ROE 11% 13% 13% 13% 10%
EPS 1,029 1,334 1,439 1,520 1,303
BVPS 12,118 12,239 13,280 13,968 14,496
• Monopoly on crude oil transportation and 90% market share in LPG transportation
(Crude oil 300.000 dwt, Clean oil 150.000 dwt, LPG 20.000 dwt)
• Increase in coal transportation demand thanks to Plants invested by mother company
PVN, namely Thai Binh 2, Long Hau 1, Song Hau 1 and Quang Trach 1. PVT takes over
50% coal needs (estimated at about 18.2 mil ton/year)
• Transport about 2.5 mil ton crude oil per year for Nghi Son refinery, planned to be in
operation from 2018, about 38% increase
• Catalyst: Nghi son
PVT
19,000 VND
(+27% yoy)
Mkt Cap VND4200 bil –
Current price 14,950
VND/cp – P/E Forward
11.4x – P/B forward 1.03x
Leading Stock in oil
transportation + increasing
demand
Top stocks pick: Turnaround
VND bn 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Revenue 134 1,630 2,212 4,731 4,776
Total Asset 10,571 13,241 17,124 26,736 35,468
Equity 5,311 6,204 6,855 9,749 10,484
Gross profit 40 915 1,028 1,237 510
EAT 3 685 736 744 (1,020)
Gross margin 29.77% 56.13% 46.46% 26.15% 10.68%
ROA 0.03% 5.18% 4.30% 2.78% -2.88%
ROE 0.05% 11.05% 10.73% 7.63% -9.73%
EPS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
BVPS 134 1,630 2,212 4,731 4,776
• Complete Debts restructuring, Sale of unprofitable assets Sugar cane VND 2,150 bil;
Completed Convertible bond of VND 2,230 bil with Temasek
• Planted and Marketed Fruit. If they success, PBT 2017 will be VND 308 bil, PBT 2018
will be VND 2,494 bil, EPS 2018 = VND 2,511
• One of largest fruit cultivating areas across Indochina with advantage of tropical
climate (18,686 ha)
• Profit = Profit from fruit cultivation + Profit from Logistic. Profit from complete value
chain, keeping high margin level
HNG
20,080 VND
(+86% yoy)
Mkt Cap VND 8,247 bil –
Current price VND 10,750
– PE FW 2018 8x – FOL
49%
Fruit is the key for
turnaround chance
Top stocks pick: Turnaround
VND Bil 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Revenue 9,317 8,631 7,397 11,089 (*)
% yoy 26.0% -7.4% -14.3% 49.9%
PAT of shareholders 318 321 459 770
% yoy 0.8% 42.9% 67.8%
EPS 2,275 2,072 2,960 2,886
BVPS 15,578 19,236 21,115 23,596
Equity 2,181 2,982 3,273 6,295
Chartered Capital 1400 1550 1550 2668
Total Asset 5149 4918 8785 13534
ROA 6.2% 6.5% 5.2% 5.7%
ROE 14.6% 10.8% 14.0% 12.2%
• GELEX hold ownership in many large companies in the electricity equipment sectors,
including CADIVI (74.73%); THIBIDI (70.79%); HEM (65.88%).
• Improving margins in all subsidiaries since state divestment of GELEX in 2015. Net
margins increase for CAV (from 3.8% to 5.5%); THIBIDI (from 8% to 8.5%)
• High value asset – the company has land blocks, at prime position and low book
value, including (1) Tran Nguyen Han (2) Number 52 Lê Đại Hành (3) 70-72 Nam Kỳ
Khởi Nghĩa (under CAV) and Melia ( 35% owned by HEM). Book value of land
ownership of GELEX is only VND 46 Bil
GEX
25,900 VND
(+28.0% yoy)
Mkt Cap $235 mil – Current
price 20,350 VND/cp – P/E
Forward 7.05x – P/B
forward 1.0x
Leading stocks with low
valuation (P/E forward =
7.05x) + output demand for
GELEX’s subsidiaries. growth
ranges 10 – 15%
Top stocks pick: Infrastructure
VND bn 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F
Net Revenue 1,407 2,024 3,100 3,101 3,008 3,492
Total Asset 1,232 1,239 2,120 2,078 4,530 6,061
Equity 305 322 462 864 2,063 2,865
Gross profit 225 419 667 429 527 585
EAT 64 142 425 246 305 306
Gross margin 16% 21% 22% 14% 18% 17%
ROA 5.2% 11.5% 20.0% 11.8% 6.7% 5.0%
ROE 20.9% 44.3% 91.9% 28.4% 14.8% 10.7%
EPS 4,380 7,740 21,060 7,180 4,050 2,538
BVPS 22,970 25,690 42,980 38,060 26,020 24,827
• leading power system construction (40% market): recover to 2,178bn revenue (+20%
YoY) in 2017 thanks to 500kV Circuit 3 project (6,418 bn in investment).
• Steel structure production: 2017 Rev is projected to reached 654bn (+15% YoY),
export contract signed and with AG Ajikawa (2016: 35,000/50,000 tons).
• hydroelectric plants (162MW), earn the revenue of 273 bn in 2017, increase to 670-
700bn in 2020 when all the plants operate.
• Catalyst: Mỹ Đình Plaza 2 (2018:1,000 bil rev from 472 apartmen, 27-30mil/m2) and
join venture (25%) rise from 60bn loss in 2016 to 11bn profit in 2017
PC1
43,000 VND
(+19.4% yoy)
Market Cap: VND 3,512 bn
– VND 36,000/share –– Div
yield: 7.5% - P/E 2017 FW:
11x – P/B 2017 FW: 1.3 –
FO available: 19.3% ~ 18.9
mil shares
leading company in power
system construction +
strong catalyst
Top stocks pick: Turnaround
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Revenue (VND billion) 4,704 5,119 5,791 6,256 5,561 5,270
Total asset (VND billion) 4,014 4,220 4,615 5,525 6,230 6,364
Total equity (VND billion) 1,723 1,830 1,946 2,365 2,411 2,583
EAT (VND billion) 191 206 253 451 113 77
% growth YoY -23% 8% 23% 78% -74.96% -31.75%
EPS (VND/share) 3,142 3,280 4,030 5,993 1,364 931
Book value (VND/share) 27,456 29,171 31,023 31,413 29,109 31,188
Gross profit margin 11% 11% 12% 13% 12.43% 9.80%
ROS 4% 4% 4% 7% 2.03% 1.46%
ROE 12% 12% 13% 21% 9.38% 5.97%
ROA 5% 5% 6% 10% 3.63% 2.42%
• Sold 50% DBC Food Processing to KDC  improve brand recognition and distribution
system  long term performance.
• Animal feeds. 2011-2016 CAGR of the sector = 6.96%, CAGR of DBC= 13.51%,
estimated sector demand = 25 mil tons in 2021, 2016-2021 CAGR =5%. DBC’s current
capacity = 1 mil tons  1.4 mil tons in 2019.
• DBC owns large land banks at low cost of capital (about VND 417 bil book value), In
2017, book about VND180 billion to EBT from handover of real estate.
• Catalysts: Pork prices recover, strong FDI in BacNinh
DBC
NA VND (+NA
% yoy)
Mkt Cap 102 Mil – Current
price VND 28,400/share –
P/E FW 8.69x – P/B 0.91x –
FOL 49%
Low valuation for Farm to
Food company, high chance
of valuation rerated after
pork recover
Thanks for your supports
and confidence in us
Long Tran Head of research
Please feel free to contact me at
E Longtt@bsc.com.vn
P +84 4 39352722 (118)
M +84 906 959 034
S rongbeo
BSC

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Bsc Vietnam Investment 2018 - 2019 English

  • 1. Vietnam Investment update second half 2017 - 2018 Long Tran Head of research Please feel free to contact me at E Longtt@bsc.com.vn P +84 4 39352722 (118) M +84 906 959 034 S rongbeo BSC 14/07/2017
  • 2. Content List • Investment themes 03 • Retail (consumer) + bank + FOL + Divestment • Infrastructure • Turnaround • Top pick Stocks (2017 - 2018) 08
  • 4. Investment themes 4 New Kids on the block hunting for bargain in new listing (Banks) & IPO (SOEs) State Divestment & FOL will dominate in 2017 – 2019 Infrastructure FDI and FTA direct and indirect sectors Turnaround Bottom fishing Oil & Gas, material stocks Local grow oriented. Low Beta and organic growth (retail, utilities, cosumer) 1 2 3 4 5
  • 5. Yahoo Finance: Vietnam Is Ready for the second Wave of Privatization 2 +2,254% +1,246% +379% +366% The second wave of IPO
  • 6. Top stocks pick: Retail + bank + FOL + Divestment MarketCap (bil VND) Price (VND) Liquidity 100D (mil) F A Sales 2017 PAT 2017 EPS 2017 BVPS 2017 ROA ROE PE FW PB FW Price 30/06 Target Price Upside VNM 226,555 156,100 118,603 47 52,945 11,220 7,733 17,41736.70%46.70% 20.38 9.05 157,600 190,000 20.56% MWG 31,747 103,200 35,811 2 63,713 2,397 7,785 18,89814.27%41.22% 13.22 5.45 102,900 119,232 15.87% QNS 20,358 83,500 7,791 44 7,400 1,480 6,090 16,25521.40%37.50% 13.94 5.22 84,900 98,000 15.43% PNJ 10,122 103,000 20,383 - 10,692 720 6,660 19,630 15% 34% 15.29 5.19 101,800 132,000 29.67% VHC 9,216 58,400 5,960 73 8,610 692 7,491 33,324 13% 22% 7.88 1.77 59,000 72,900 23.56% VGG 5,427 61,000 1,868 30 8,097 310 9,156 34,860 7.30%19.20% 6.67 1.75 61,100 70,333 15.11% RAL 2,690 134,700 3,370 42 3,282 180 11,716 55,048 8% 29% 11.75 2.57 137,700 167,500 21.64% MBB 37,166 21,700 35,361 3,650 2,033 15,113 1.34%14.50% 10.97 1.52 22,300 26,000 16.59% ACB 25,831 26,200 86,487 1,616 1,588 14,411 0.64%10.89% 16.3 1.8 25,900 30,200 16.60% PVI 7,498 33,700 8,042 7263 438 1,758 29,995 2.60% 6.20% 19.17 1.12 33,700 40,000 18.69% NTP 5,890 66,000 1,613 15 4,663 442 4,621 24,608 12% 22% 11.92.723 67000 89000 32.84% DIG 3,692 15,500 20,752 19 1,406 128 537 12,008 2.10% 4.50% 29.05 1.3 15,600 19,000 21.79% VGC 8,198 19,500 6,372 21 8,538 629 1,714 17,337 5.60% 15% 11.38 1.12 19,500 23,700 21.54%
  • 7. Top stocks pick: infrastructure MarketCap (bil VND) Price (VND) Liquidity 100D (mil) F A Sales 2017 PAT 2017 EPS 2017 BVPS 2017 ROA ROE PE FW PB FW Price 30/06 Target Price Upside GAS 114,036 59,600 39,008 46 68,771 8,111 4,239 22,670 12.37% 19.80% 13.8 2.7 58,300 72,000 23.50% ACV 110.600 50.500 10.515 46 16.037 4.818 1.962 23.999 9.22% 17.2% 26 2,1 51.000 60.689 19,00% HPG 49,756 32,800 168,301 13 36,577 7,001 4,612 16,747 17.40% 27.56% 6.94 1.91 32,000 39,200 22.50% FPT 24,659 46,450 49,919 - 46,619 3,058 4,025 22,391 9.30% 25.72% 11.64 2.09 46,850 54,342 15.99% CTD 16,467 213,500 27,292 7 27,153 1,750 23,026 99,855 11.90% 23.10% 9.4 2.17 216,500 250,000 15.47% REE 11,441 36,900 47,362 - 4,242 1,450 3,919 27,758 12% 17% 9.42 1.33 36,900 45,000 21.95% NT2 8,464 29,400 11,059 27 7,011 1,129 3,567 20,818 9% 19% 8 1.37 28,550 36,000 26.09% KBC 8,033 17,100 52,367 19 2,407 850 1,146 18,190 5% 9% 14.7 0.93 16,850 20,000 18.69% PVT 4,095 14,550 10,926 24 6,426 410 1,303 14,496 4% 10% 11.47 1.03 14,950 19,000 27.09% VSH 3,516 17,050 1,234 34 644 381 1,846 15,563 4% 12% 9.26 1.1 17,100 20,530 20.06% PC1 3,424 35,000 7,470 29 3,492 306 2,538 24,827 5% 10.70% 14.18 1.45 36,000 43,000 19.44% VSC 2,825 62,000 7,456 - 1,280 292 6,078 43,198 9% 13% 10.4 1.46 63,200 72,400 14.56% HUT 2,323 12,200 23,492 32 3,308 466 1,942 14,580 4.70% 13.30% 6.33 0.84 12,300 14,700 19.51% CTI 1,787 29,300 13,173 21 1,298 152 2,362 20,916 3% 13% 12.87 1.91 30,400 38,300 25.99% HAH 777 22,900 683 23 520 130 3,578 17,440 12% 15% 6.48 1.33 23,200 30,640 32.07%
  • 8. Top stocks pick: turnaround MarketCap (bil VND) Price (VND) Liquidity 100D (mil) F A Sales 2017 PAT 2017 EPS 2017 BVPS 2017 ROA ROE PE FW PB FW Price 30/06 Target Price Upside EIB 15,614 12,700 4,873 2 0.27 224 11,226 0.20% 2.01% 57.6 1.17 12,900 HNG 7,863 10,250 27,066 48 4,768 247 313 8,546 34.35 1.26 10,750 20,086 86.85% PVS 7,728 17,300 24,521 22 18,165 834 1,876 23,680 4.07% 7.60% 9.6 0.7 16,700 20,500 22.75% PPC 6,363 20,000 2,303 34 6,716 507 1,542 16,601 5% 9% 13.29 1.23 20,500 19,300 -5.85% VGT 5,550 11,100 528 N/A 15,640 416 467 12,823 2% 5% 24.41 0.89 11,400 13619 19.46% GEX 5,496 20,600 17,028 43 11,089 770 2,886 23,596 5.70% 12.20% 7.05 0.86 20,350 25,900 27.27% DRC 3,778 31,800 14,722 17 3,910 292 2,191 14,001 9% 18% 14.63 2.3 32,050 36,500 13.88% DBC 2,344 28,400 3,892 23 6,548 320 3,270 28,244 5% 14% 7.1 1.01 28,400 32,700 15.14% PLC 2,262 28,000 854 41 5,244 263.8 3,265 18,684 7.20% 17.48% 8.55 1.49 27,900 35,500 27.24% DQC 1,478 46,300 2,727 23 1,050 142 3,724 34,438 9% 12% 13.56 1.36 50,500 DRI 875 12,000 2,400 611 101 1,311 10,946 3% 12.20% 9.76 1.2 12,100 15,700 29.75%
  • 9. Top Pick Stocks “for 2017 - 2018” 9
  • 10. Top stocks pick: ipo Financials 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Total assets (bil đ) 81,157 59,872 65,850 58,053 62,761 Equity (bil đ) 27,343 31,747 35,733 31,138 37,269 Rev (bil đ) 127,224 95,272 73,686 80,629 102,217 NPAT (bil đ) 129 6,099 4,436 7,446 8,341 EPS 2,402 2,690 ROS 0% 6% 6% 9% 8% ROE 0% 21% 13% 23% 24% ROA 0% 9% 7% 12% 14% • Petroleum demand rise 5.6% toward 2035 Vietnam continues to be a net importer of oil products in the upcoming 5 years. (BSR Market share ~ 30% of gasoline, DO, and LPG, 9% of Jet A1; 15% of PP • Improve efficiency. Utilization 110%, can run up to 120%. In Dec, 2014, 1.092 tons of crude oil  1 tons of products. In August, 2017, 1.081 tons of crude oil  1 tons of products. • BSR plans to invest approximately $ 1.8 billion in the upgrade and expansion project, 30% capacity increase to 8.5 million tons of crude oil per year (2021) • Catalyst: 2018 full year operation -> 20% growth in output vs 2017-> EPS~3,000 • Risk: Crack spread decreases, Oceanbank , BSR-BF; expansion and upgrade projects BSR NA VND Up +NA % Market cap VND 45,267 bil - Current price VND 14,600/share – PE FW 5.43x – PB FW 1.21x Low valuation for a Blue- Chips, still room to improve efficiency
  • 11. Top stocks pick: ipo Financials 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Total assets (bil đ) 23,662 20,445 21,304 21,212 21,257 Equity (bil đ) 9,333 9,912 10,411 10,906 10,951 Rev (bil đ) 66,306 50,910 39,297 52,743 67,073 NPAT (bil đ) (1,372) 674 565 593 638 EPS 568 458 510 549 ROS N/A 1.32% 1.44% 1.12% 0.95% ROE N/A 6.80% 5.43% 5.43% 5.83% ROA N/A 3.30% 2.65% 2.79% 3.00% • The only one company that has been licensed to import and export crude oil • The second largest petroleum trading company in Vietnam. Distribution capacity will be about 3.11 million m3/ton in 2016, accounting for approximately 20-22% of the market demand. • The general agent (the lowest profit margin segment) accounts for 60% of sales, industrial customers and retail customers account for 20% each. • Catalyst: Growth by merger and acquisition activities: With more than 3,500 petrol stations, equal to about half of those of Petrolimex + retail in stations • Risk: commitment to continue buying products from Nghi Son and Binh Son PVoil 19,000 VND Up +NA % Market cap VND 13,859 bil - Current price VND 13,400/share – PE FW 24.40x – PB FW 1.41x Low Market cap compare to peers for a Blue-Chips, still room to improve efficiency
  • 12. Top stocks pick: ipo 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Rev 23,380 24,356 23,231 28,030 30,742 NPAT (bil đ) 584 2,808 1,483 1,496 2,303 EPS (đ/share) 401 1,536 451 441 680 ROS 2.50% 11.53% 6.38% 5.34% 7.49% ROE 4.46% 21.42% 5.63% 5.58% 9.52% ROA 1.14% 5.71% 2.10% 2.15% 3.36% BVPS(đ/share) 8,168 6,607 10,000 10,000 8,505 • Demand for electricity will continue to rise > capacity growth of CAGR=7% (to 2020) • PVP is among the lowest investment-per-MW power generation companies. PVPower’s investment-per-MW stood at about 16.9 bil, while Genco 1 was 21.2 bil/mw, Genco 2: 19 bil/MW, Genco 3=17.6 bil/MW and TKV= 19.1 bil/MW. • PVP power plant mostly were built in the Southern, increasing utilization rate. Most of gas turbine plants namely NT1, Nt2, Ca Mau 1,2 are located in the South • Catalyst: Wholesales Competitive Generation Market- WCM which is expected to be launched in 2019 • Investment risk. Increasing in gas, Exchange rate fluctuation. As of 30/6/2017 PVPower had USD debt of 890 mil and EUR debt of 72 mil. We estimate increase of 1% in USDVND brings VND 173 bil loss. PVPower 21,200 VND Up +na% Market cap VND 33,723 bil - Current price VND 14,400/share – PE FW 18.58x – PB FW 1.68x Low valuation for a Blue- Chips, still room to improve efficiency
  • 13. Top stocks pick: Infrastructure VND Billion 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Revenue 18,934 25,525 27,453 33,283 42,590 54,680 Total Asset 23,076 22,089 25,507 33,227 48,985 65,881 Equity 9,500 11,965 14,467 19,850 32,476 38,115 Gross Profit 3,284 5,187 5,594 8,751 9,723 11,086 EAT 2,010 3,250 3,504 6,606 7,741 8,718 Gross Margin 17.34% 20.32% 20.38% 26.29% 23.0% 20% ROA 8.71% 14.71% 13.74% 19.88% 15.80% 13.23% ROE 21.16% 27.16% 24.22% 33.28% 23.84% 22,88% EPS 1,467 2,328 3,928 4,470 5,056 5,717 BVPS 7,133 8,857 10,696 14,623 21,405 25,122 • Galvanizing factory and 1st phase of the Dung Quat factory project are the growth motivation for 2018. The 400,000 tons/year galvanized steel factory located in the North is expected to be put into operation in early 2018 • Profits from real estate. HPG will record revenue from the Mandarin Garden 2 project by the end of 2017. With a selling price of about VND28-30 million/m2, HPG may record over VND 4,4 trillion in sales and around VND400 billion in gross profit. In 2018, revenue is expected to increase 16% to over 40 trillion and gross profit is approximately 15 trillion. HPG 56,300VND Up +20% Mkt Cap VND 71,067.2 bil – Current price VND 46,850 – PE FW 8.43, PB FW 1.92 – FO 41.45% Low valuation for a Blue- Chips and demand, capacity and market share have potential to grow
  • 14. Top stocks pick: Infrastructure VND Billion 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Revenue 11,772 15,005 17,469 18,006 26,149 31,065 Total Asset 7,142 10,205 9,440 12,309 21,438 23,697 Equity 2,210 2,379 2,910 4,129 5,169 7,574 Gross Profit 1,707 1,750 2,577 4,176 4,418 4,850 EAT 580 410 652 1,504 1,331 1,605 Gross Margin 14,50% 11,66% 14,75% 23,19% 16.92% 15.61% ROA 8,12% 4,02% 6,91% 12,22% 6.17% 6.77% ROE 26,24% 17,23% 22,41% 36,43% 25.74% 21.19% EPS 4,261 6,691 9,026 3,672 4,585 BVPS 23,605 28,879 21,013 14,260 21,563 The second largest steel industry and the leading galvanised industry. HSG's galvanized steel sheet consumption now stands at 1.2 million tonnes, market share of HSG in 2017 is 33.5%, leading the market with more than 340 retail branches (opened more than 100 branches this year). Plastic pipe sector will contribute to HSG's earnings in the coming time. Although HSG has started to produce plastic pipes, the current market share of HSG is about 8%; Taking advantage of the advantages of distribution system and discount policy, HSG has been able to compete with big players in the industry such as BMP and NTP Similar to other galvanizing companies such as NKG, HSG also benefited from low domestic HRC supply from Formosa and Dung Quat steel project in Hoa Phat. HSG 32,800 VND Up +22.5% Mkt Cap VND 8,574 bil – Current price VND 24,500 – PE FW 2018 5.34x – PB FW 1.23– FO 25.31% Low valuation for a Blue- Chips and demand, capacity and efficiency to improve
  • 15. Top stocks pick: Infrastructure VND Billion 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Revenue 4,668 5,844 5,756 8,941 13,698 17,160 Total Asset 2,323 2,936 3,572 6,390 8,250 9,261 Equity 329 506 639 1,580 2,367 3,378 Gross Profit 301 317 446 1,011 1,495 1,888 EAT 51.8 76.6 156.4 607.7 806 1,011 Gross Margin 6.45% 5.42% 7.75% 11.31% 10.91% 11.00% ROA 1.11% 1.31% 2.72% 6.80% 9.77% 10.92% ROE 15.74% 15.14% 24.48% 38.46% 34.05% 29.93% EPS 1,734 2,282 3,052 10,398 7,675 7,776 BVPS 11,031 12,693 14,567 23,934 22,542 25,983 • Strong growth in capacity and improved profit margin: 1Q2018 the NOF galvanized steel sheet will be in operation, capacity of 350,000 tons/yr, improve total capacity of NKG to 1.2 million tons, increase sharply but still only half the capacity of HSG. • Expanding advertising campaign to improve brandname. • Cheap HRC supply comes from the domestic market (Formosa Ha Tinh), about 30% of NKG's HRC demand, minimizing exchange rate risk. NKG 51,300 VND Up +22.5% Mkt Cap VND 5,044 bil – Current price 38,800 – PE FW 4.99 – PB FW 1.49 – FO 52.61% Low valuation and capacity to improve
  • 16. Top stocks pick: Bank Thousand bil. VND 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Total asset 121 163 194 229 265 313 Total loans 52 78 117 145 181 226 NII 4.15 5.29 10.35 15.17 20.54 25.63 Profit before provision 2.38 2.59 6.37 10.24 16.21 20.24 EAT 1.02 1.25 2.40 3.94 6.35 8.60 % yoy 58.2% 23.2% 91.1% 64.2% 61% 35.4% EPS 1,764 1,975 2,974 4,286 4,045 5,478 Book value 10,002 14,148 16,619 18,710 20,604 23,739 ROE 17.63% 17.00% 21.42% 25.75% 26% 24.71% ROA 0.91% 0.88% 1.34% 1.86% 3% 2.98% • Leader and pioneer in consumer finance (FECredit ~ 48% market shares, 60% of loans growth 2014-2017, ~88% NII growth from 2015-2017). Robust growth. Loans up by 15.9% ytd, in which FECredit up by 28% ytd. NII increased by 41% yoy, FECredit rose by 47% yoy, contributed 56% to consolidated NII  EAT up by 72% in 9M2017 • High profitable. NIM at 8.76%, the highest among listed banks, NIM of FE ~24.4%. Low CIR at 35.96%. VPB has the strongest ROA, ROE at 2.48% and 23.54%, respectively. • BSC forecasted that EAT 2017 = VND 6,354 bil, EAT 2018 = VND 8,603 Bil (+35% yoy), EPS 2018 = VND 5,478/share. Catalysts: FEcredit booming; new listed banks at high valuation VPB 47,800 VND Up +17% Mkt Cap $2.73 Bil – Current price VND 40,800/share – P/E FW 7.45x – P/B 1.98x – FO 25%. Be leader and pioneer in consumer finance Have growth potential thanks to
  • 17. Top stocks pick: Bank Thousand bil. VND 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Total asset 167 180 201 234 276 328 Total loans 107 116 134 163 197 235 NII 4.39 4.77 5.88 6.89 8.25 9.88 Profit before provision 1,890 2,193 2,199 2,885 4.97 6.32 EAT 826 952 1,028 1,325 2.24 3.25 % yoy 5% 15% 8% 29% 68.84% 45.23% EPS 826 952 1,028 1,325 2,219 3,245 Book value 13,221 13,832 12,970 14,264 14,984 17,934 ROE 6.58% 7.64% 8.17% 9.87% 14.76% 18.20% ROA 0.48% 0.55% 0.54% 0.61% 0.88% 1.08% • Credit growth will be high thanks to short-term fund for medium and long-term fund just 24.27%, low pure LDR of approximately 78.83% (9M2017) • NIM was high, at 3.31% in 9M2017 and are expected to continue improving due to (1) promoting transaction banking segment; (2) promoting retail banking segment; (3) boosting the ratio of loans / deposits to 80%; • Good asset quality. NPL ratio = 1.04% (9M2017), the total doubtful assets = VND 10 trillion, 63% of equity. Strong loan loss coverage ratio = 151%, in which, the ratio (excluding loan loss provision of G6) =110%. • Catalyst: Completion of provision for debt of G6 one year earlier, repurchase and handle the entire NPL sold for VAMC and new listed banks at high valuation ACB 43,500 VND Up +18% Mkt Cap $1.16 Bil – Current price VND 25,900/share – P/E FW 16.03x – P/B 1.80x Have growth potential thanks to good ratio + Profit up thanks to NPL collection and VAMC treatment
  • 18. Top stocks pick: Bank 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Total asset 180 200 221 256 292 332 Total loans 88 101 121 151 182 215 NII 6.1 6.5 7.3 8.0 11 13 Profit before provision 4.91 5.19 5.32 5.68 7.98 9.30 EAT 2.28 2.48 2.50 2.86 4.24 6.05 % yoy -1% 9% 1% 15% 48% 43% EPS 2,145 2,073 1,786 1,706 2,241 3,192 Book value 13,458 14,284 14,121 14,318 14,990 17,616 ROE 16.25% 15.62% 12.75% 12.15% 16.39% 20.44% ROA 1.28% 1.30% 1.18% 1.20% 1.55% 1.94% • 2017 EBT is estimated at VND 6,200 bil (+70% yoy). BSC forecast that 2018 EAT will be VND 6,050 bil, +43% yoy, EPS of VND 3,192/share. • High profitability, NIM was 4.07%, just behind VPB while low CIR = 40.69%, only higher than TCB, VPB. The bank’s expected ROE = 15% over the next three years. MBB sold 49% of Mcredit to Shinsei  increase MBB’s BV by ~ VND 490 bil • Good asset quality. NPL ratio = 1.33% (9M2017). Total doubtful assets = VND19 trillion, 66% of equity. The loan loss coverage ratio = 87%. MBB will finish making provision for VAMC bond in mid-2018.  Provision cost will decline sharply Catalyst: Divestment from Mcredit, Mbland; Mcredit booming; M&A with Pgbank; and new listed banks at high valuation MBB 30,700 VND Up +18% Mkt Cap $2.05 Bil – P/E FW 8.0x – P/B 1.4x – FO 20% One of the cheapest in P/B, solid asset quality and potential in Mcredit
  • 19. Top stocks pick: Bank Thousand bil. VND 2013 2014 2015 2016 9M2017 Total asset 79,594 100,802 107,587 141,865 148,049 Total loans 29,548 41,289 56,165 79,676 94,867 NII 2,271 2,291 2,894 4,024 3,903 Profit before provision 947 762 924 1,840 1,907 EAT 566 466 350 1,063 1,126 % yoy -17% -25% 204% 61% EPS 815 685 524 1,582 1,743.0 Book value 11,256 11,441 11,766 12,898 14,150 ROE 7.72% 6.36% 4.67% 13.34% 4.70% ROA 0.78% 0.52% 0.34% 0.85% 0.29% • Sustainable growth. Loans increased by 19% ytd, deposit up 10% ytd in 9M2017. Low pure LDR of 77%  room for growth. 2017 EBT is estimated at VND 1,700 bil, + 26% yoy, EPS 2017 of VND 1,895/share. • Improve profitability. Strong NIM up to 3.68% in 9M2017 from 3.5% in 2016 thanks to great transaction accounts at 31.38%, the highest proportion among listed banks. ROA = 1.04% sector 0.73%, ROE = 17.24% sector 12.48%. • Asset quality. NPL ratio was low at 1.19%, if including VAMC bonds, the ratio up to 2.4%. NPL coverage ratio was high at 105 • Catalyst: Divestment from STB, Private offering, dividend and New listed banks at high valuation LPB 20,500VND Up +59% Mkt USD 0.37 bil – current price VND 12,900/share – P/E FW 6.81x P/B 0.91x, FO 0% Attractive valuation. P/B of 0.91x vs sector of 1.45x.
  • 20. Top stocks pick: Bank 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Total asset 86,227 99,525 106,486 150,294 188,157 237,512 Total loans 44,030 41,993 56,559 82,224 111,000 148,510 NII 309 1,629 3,245 4,678 Profit before provision 432 1,079 1,723 2,141 - - EAT 218 477 513 738 1,744 2,869 % yoy -33.3% 136.3% 64% EPS 269 589 630 911 1,778 2,866 Book value 10,617 11,356 12,150 12,275 14,598 17,635 ROE 3.11% 5.36% 6.62% 9.24% 13.23% 17.80% ROA 0.31% 0.51% 0.61% 0.71% 1.03% 1.35% • Medium size is expanding. Chartered capital was VND 9,810 bil on 31st Dec, 2017. equity of the bank will be VND 17,452 bil BV VND 19,833/share at the end 2018. • Strong growth. From 2012-2016, CAGR of loans was 40.4%, the highest, CAGR of deposit was 31.8%, the highest growth, CAGR of operating profit was 37%, just behind VPB. In 9M2017, EAT was VND 1,538 bil, EPS of VND 1,583/share. HDB targets to get VND 2,372 bil in 2017 (+107% yoy) and VND 3,972 bil in 2018 (+65.3% yoy). • HDSaison, a subsidiary of HDBank, is the 3rd consumer finance in Vietnam with market share of about 12.15%, focusing on motorbike loans. Credit grew by 73%/ year from 2013-2016 and up by 12% in 9M2017. • Catalysts. HDSaison booming & New listed banks at high valuation HDB 49,500 VND Up +25% Mkt USD 1.73 bil – current price VND 39,750/share – P/E FW 13.86x, P/B 2.72x, FO 21.89% Potential in consumer finance
  • 21. Top stocks pick: retail + consumer 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Revenue 9,499 15,757 25,253 44,613 64,091 86,487 Total Asset 2,232 3,407 7,266 14,854 17,198 17,679 Equity 800 1,475 2,484 3,841 5,810 6,290 EAT 258 674 1,076 1,578 2,200 2,681 Net Margin 2.72% 4.28% 4.26% 3.54% 3.43% 3.10% ROA 11.58% 19.77% 14.81% 10.62% 12.79% 15.17% ROE 32.30% 45.68% 43.32% 41.09% 37.87% 42.62% EPS 2,390 3,653 5,125 6,939 8,457 BVPS 5,270 8,461 12,472 18,335 19,853 • Finishing M&A of TAG, more chance to expand to the North of Vietnam. We expect at the current scale of TAG, MWG’s PAT for the year 2018 increase about VND 139 billion • M&A Phuc An Khang retail chain of pharmaceuticals with high prospect, according to BSC‘s discussion with some private pharmacies, PBT margin can reach 10% • Green Grocery Chain is improving after changing to new model, gross margin is improved • Catalyst: Expanding to the North, Entering pharmaceutical retail, Green Grocery Chain having net profit MWG 169,800 VND Up +15.9% Market cap VND 41,508 bil – Current price VND 131,000/share – PE FW 15.49x – PB FW 6.60x – FO 49% Growth potiential in retail business
  • 22. Top stocks pick: IT and retail 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Revenue 27,028 32,645 37,960 39,531 42,170 20,775 Total Asset 17,571 22,658 26,046 29,833 28,774 28,825 Equity 7,206 9,255 10,180 11,445 14,347 14,398 EAT 2,065 2,079 2,438 2,576 2,905 2,956 Net Margin 7.64% 6.37% 6.42% 6.52% 6.89% 14.23% ROA 11.75% 9.18% 9.36% 8.63% 10.10% 10.25% ROE 28.66% 22.46% 23.95% 22.50% 20.25% 20.53% EPS 3,081 3,121 3,811 3,925 4,219 4,457 BVPS 13,783 15,130 16,325 18,032 27,026 27,121 • Divesting in Retail and Distribution Segment, becoming a Software – Telecom Company, re-rate PE = 15.4x for the year 2018 (in the year 2017, we estimate FPT will have VND 1,125 billion from divesting 40% ownership in FRT and VND 192 billion from divesting 52% in FPT Trading. EPS 2017 core = VND 4,219 and total EPS 2017 = VND 6,204, PE 2017 = 9.2x) • Software Outsourcing continues to be the key driver with revenue in 11M2017 of VND 5,514 billion (+18%yoy) and PBT of VND 898 billion (+21%yoy, accounting for 42% total PBT of Technology and Telecom Segments). In which, Japan is the main market, accounting for 58% total revenue and has more room for expanding  Catalyst: divestment of SCIC in 2018, listing FRT on the HSX in April 2018 FPT 68,700 VND (+16% yoy) Mkt cap VND 30,313.18 bil – Current price VND 57,100/share – PE FW 12.81x – PB FW 2.11x – FO 49% Leading Stock with low valuation level + divestment
  • 23. Top stocks pick: IT and retail 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Revenue 27,028 32,645 37,960 39,531 42,170 20,775 Total Asset 17,571 22,658 26,046 29,833 28,774 28,825 Equity 7,206 9,255 10,180 11,445 14,347 14,398 EAT 2,065 2,079 2,438 2,576 2,905 2,956 Net Margin 7.64% 6.37% 6.42% 6.52% 6.89% 14.23% ROA 11.75% 9.18% 9.36% 8.63% 10.10% 10.25% ROE 28.66% 22.46% 23.95% 22.50% 20.25% 20.53% EPS 3,081 3,121 3,811 3,925 4,219 4,457 BVPS 13,783 15,130 16,325 18,032 27,026 27,121 • Improved gross profit margin due to growth of scale: in 9M2017, GPM was 14.62%, better than 9M2016 (13.6%). We estimate that FRT's gross margin in 2018 could reach over 15% as the current FRT size is equivalent to MWG scale in the period 2014 and 2015 with MWG's gross margin at that time of 15.21% and 15.53% respectively • Expanding Apple Stores in Vietnam, the prospects come from Apple's trend which is gradually penetrating into the Vietnamese youth • BSC forecasts that FRT's EBT in FY2018 will come to VND456 billion (+42% yoy) and FY2018 EAT will come to VND365 billion (+42% yoy). EPS 2018 = VND 9,119 (40 million shares) • Catalyst: Listed on the HSX in April 2018 FRT 141,000 VND (+16% yoy) Mkt cap VND 3,400 bil – Current price VND 85,000/share – PE FW 9.32x – PB FW 3.86x – FO 35% Leading Stock with low valuation leve, retail and consumption potential
  • 24. Top stocks pick: retail 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Revenue (bil VND) 9.199 7.706 8.565 10.578 13,337 Total asset 2.829 2.976 3.588 4.408 6,067 Total equity 1.297 1.315 1.500 3.026 3.823 Gross profit (BIl VND) 889 1.168 1.411 1.903 2.474 EAT 242 76 450 748 993.5 GP margin 9.7% 15.2% 16.48% 18.1% 18.7% ROA 9% 3% 13% 17% 16% ROE 19% 6% 30% 25% 26% EPS 3.200 769 4.584 6.228 8,271 BVPS 17.150 13.383 15.267 28,000 35,372 • The leading jewelry producer and retailer in market share. PNJ has the largest store network of 260 as the end of November 2017, plan at 300 store by Apr 2018. We expected that average revenue per store in 2018F will reach VND 42.3 billion per store (+6.1% yoy). • BSC expected to achieve more than 15% of SSSG in 2018. SSSG expand significantly in 2017 to 22% in 9M2017. Its supply chain is learning from Wal-mart and H&M Accessories’s network. • 2018 business result. PNJ's revenue estimated 13,337 billion VND, up 26% YoY, Gross profit was 2,474 billion (+30% YoY). The gross margin 18.7% (2016 18.1%) thanks to gold jewelry retail. EBT reached VND 993.5 billion (+32% YoY). EPS 2018F = 8,271 VND per share. PNJ 155,300 VND (+29.6% yoy) Mkt cap USD 629.1 million – P/E FW 16.3x, P/B FW 3.8, FO: 49% Leading Stock in retail with huge potential jewelry market
  • 25. Top stocks pick: FOL + Divestment VND BIL 2014 2015 2016 2017 (F) 2018 (F) Gross premium 5987 7248 6528 6650 7471 % yoy -2.3% 21.1% -9.9% 1.9% 12.3% Underwriting profit -224.5 -125.0 44.9 43.2 47.9 Combined ratio 107% 103% 99% 99% 99% Financial profit 517 819 656 616 714 Total Asset 18,330 15,495 16,643 19,267 20,881 Total Equity 6,191 6,734 6,821 7,354 7,970 Total Investment value 9,244 7,659 7,299 8,450 10,850 PBT 361 708 714 659 762 PAT 246 576 574 532 616 EPS 1,190 2,564 2,304 2,139 2,474 BVPS 26,431 28,748 29,121 31,395 34,024 ROA 1.3% 3.7% 3.4% 2.8% 3.0% ROE 4.0% 8.6% 8.4% 7.2% 7.7%  Sales growth from the recovery in Oil & Gas clients, along with the expansion in retail segments of PVI  2018-2019, approximately VND2.400 bil revenue is expected from the Embassy Garden real estate project, which is implemented by VAD – one of PVI’s subsidiaries. Almost all of this project has been sold and the project will delivered in Q3/2018.  Catalyst: FOL raised to 100% in the AGM, PVN divestment, abnormal earning: PVI Tower – VND 1,000 Bil book value and estimated VND 350 Bil of PBT. PVI 41,750 VND (+30.5% yoy) Mkt Cap $313 Mil – Current price 32,000 VND/cp – P/E Forward 19.1x – P/B forward 1.1x – FO 49% Cheap Valuation compare to peer (P/B 1.3x), rerate is likely after FOL lift up and PVN divestment
  • 26. Top stocks pick: FOL + divestment Financial indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Revenue (Bil. VND) 2,481 2,998 3,556 4,354 4,663 4,941 Total asset (Bil. VND) 1,811 2,580 3,252 3,420 4,007 3,416 Equity (Bil. VND) 1,226 1,466 1,719 1,833 2,196 2,387 EAT (Bil. VND) 290 325 366 398 473 516 % growth y-o-y -1% 12% 13% 9% 11% +9% EPS (VND per share) 6,681 5,769 5,715 5,346 4,621 5,319 Book value (VND per share) 28,290 26,019 27,741 24,654 24,621 25,736 ROS 12% 11% 10% 0% 9% 10% ROE 25% 24% 23% 22% 22% 24% ROA 17% 15% 13% 12% 12% 14% • Capacity 171,000 tons vs BMP’s of 150,000 tons (9M2017’s NTP output = BMP’s = 84K tons). NTP’s normal discount rate of 30% (up to 60%), while BMP’s was 15% • NTP’s revenue of VND 3,329 bil, net profit of VND 363 bil including VND 70 bil EBT from issuance of the South Tien Phong plastic, OPM of 11.17% (9M2017). BMP’s revenue of VND 2,619 bil, net profit of VND 348 bil., OPM of 16.81%. • Scenario 1: PVC price up by 5%, distributor policy unchanged,  2017EAT = VND 473 bil, 2018 EAT = VND 483 bil, respectively. • Scenario 2: PVC price up by 5%, cost to distributors/revenue declined to 6% in 2018  2018EAT = VND 631 bil,+33% yoy. EPS = VND 6,507/share. NTP 89,000 VND (+32.8% yoy) Mkt Cap $278 Mil – Current price VND 70,000/share – P/E FW 13.16x– P/B 2.84x – FO 26%. Leading plastic for construction with room to raise GM (after divestment)
  • 27. Top stocks pick: Infrastructure VND bn 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Net Revenue 6,190 7,634 13,669 20,783 28,470 33,485 Total Asset 4,552 4,863 7,815 11,741 14,194 17,190 Equity 2,302 2,527 3,243 6,234 7,992 9,890 Gross profit 464 556 1,112 1,799 2,278 2,545 EAT 280 357 733 1,422 1,779 1,898 Gross margin 7.5% 7.3% 8%.1 8.7% 8.0% 7.6% ROA 6.1% 7.4% 9.4% 12.1% 12.5% 11% ROE 12.2% 14.1% 22.6% 22.8% 22.3% 19.2% EPS 18,680 18,460 19,330 21,510 20,293 21,651 BVPS 81,890 80,900 81,890 84,880 103,724 128,363 • A huge backlog: CTD’s backlog as of 30/09/2017 was VND25,567bn (+20%yoy). We forecast that total new contract value signed in 2017 reach VND33,320bn and the backlog as of end-2017 will rise by 21% YoY to VND27,207bn. The new contract value signed in 2018 is expected to increase by 13% to VND37,372 bn. • BSC supposed that the gross margin of CTD will decrease to 8% in 2017 and 7.6% in 2018.due to (1) the higher competition, (2) The increase price of raw material as steel, sand, rock.., (3) The higher contribution of mid-end and affordable apartment, • Strong balance sheet with no any interest based debts, so CTD is not impacted by the up and down of interest rate and has almost no default risk. CTD 280,000 VND (+25.6% yoy) Market Cap: VND 16,551 bn –P/E FW 10.3x, P/B FW 1.7, FO: 49% Leading Stock in infrastructure with low valuation level
  • 28. Top stocks pick: Infrastructure VND bn 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F Net Revenue 342.7 522.7 1,397.0 2,513.4 2,868 Total Asset 934.0 1,755.8 2,986.8 4,627.0 5,512 Equity 633 1,003 1,584 3,245 4,353 Gross profit 205.9 301.8 659.2 1,051.6 1,709 NPATMI 82.8 152.2 270.0 465.2 779 Gross margin 60.1% 59.6% 47.3% 42.0% 59.8% ROA 6.6% 6.8% 7.6% 8% 14% ROE 13.1% 15.2% 17.0% 14.3% 18% EPS 1,489 1,928 2,188 1,746 2,590 BVPS 11,991 13,370 13,506 12,822 15,224 • Strong deliveries in Q4 will help DXG to outperform their business plan 2017. 9M2017 DXG’s NPATMI reach VND459.9 billion, mainly driven by the deliveries of Luxcity and solid growth in wholesales brokerage segment. • We forecast that the number of brokered units in 2017F and 2018F reach 16,000 units (+100% yoy) and 19,200 units (+20% yoy) respectively. we expected DXG will take an advantage of the trend from high-end to mid-end/affordable in housing segment. • The revenue of development segment will increase significantly in 2018. In 2018, DXG will deliveries 5 project as Opal Riverside, Lux Garden, Opal Garden, Lux Riverview, Opal Skyview. DXG 28,000 VND (+26.1% yoy) Target price: 28,000 VND – P/E FW 5.9x, P/B FW 1.1, FO: 31.9% Leading Stock in real estate & reasonable valuation
  • 29. Top stocks pick: Infrastructure 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F Revenue (VND bn) 6,091 8,009 7,820 8,139 8,589 9,432 % growth 31% -2% 4% 6% 10% Total asset 11,217 12,317 11,663 12,989 14,813 17,153 Total equity 1,415 2,940 3,302 4,367 6,852 7,677 Gross profit (VND bn) 1,170 1,598 1,717 2,106 2,353 2,469 EAT 30 315 328 514 643 723 GP margin 19% 20% 22% 24% 25% 25% ROA 0.30% 3.10% 3.40% 3.96% 4.34% 4.21% ROE 3% 17% 13% 12% 9% 9% EPS - - 1,242 1,826 1,561 1,437 •Industrial zone high growth : It is estimated that about 120 ha of VGC’s blank area will be occupied in 2018, mainly in Yen Phong Phase 2, Dong Van, Phu Ha…, Revenue is projected to be VND 1,570 bn (+34.4% YoY). •Revenue of building material sector slight rise. In 2018, VGC's porcelain sanitary ware will expand its capacity by 60% when My Xuan factory goes into operation. Tiles segment capacity is going to rise by 2.5 million m2 in Viglacera Ha Noi. •Estimated business results in 2018. In 2018, Viglacera's revenue is estimated to grow by 9.8% YoY to VND 9,432 bn with the net income of VND 723 bn. The projected EPS is about VND 1,437 per share (9% of net income for bonus and welfare fund). • Catalyst: FDI flow & FTAs (11 signed, 4 on the track). VGC 20,000 VND (+18.7% yoy) - Mkt cap USD 493.5 million – Target price: 31.993 VND – Dividend yield: 3.4% - P/E 18.2 FW x, P/B FW 1.53x – FO: 18.7% Leading Stock in Industry zone (FDI, FTA trend) &
  • 30. Top stocks pick: Infrastructure 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Rev 2,413 2,629 2,643 3,659 3,982 4,727 Total Asset 6,954 8,369 9,293 10,825 12,290 14,283 Equity 5,197 5,910 6,334 7,156 8,745 10,527 Gross profit 603 803 891 1,182 1,314 1,449 EAT 976 932 888 1,174 1,550 1,746 Gross Margin 25% 31% 34% 32% 33% 31% ROA 14% 11% 10% 11% 13% 12% ROE 19% 16% 14% 16% 18% 17% EPS 3,701 3,328 3,164 3,526 4,190 4,720 BVPS 19,708 21,965 23,494 23,080 28,203 33,950 •M&E segment: at the end of Sep 2017, backlog has reached VND 5.25 trillion, securing about 10% increase in revenue of this segment in 2018 reaching about VND 2,200 bil, •Investments in PPC, VSH, TMP and Ba Ha river are expected to provide stable earnings in 2018. Currently, REE invests about VND 5,700 in which electricity accounts for 86%, water resources 11%. In 2018, we forecast that PPC (REE’s main investment in electricity will record revenue and NPAT of VND 6,574 bil and VND 980 bil. •Office leasing: E-Tower at 11 Doan Van Bo completed, adding 35.000 m2 with average leasing rate of about 28 usd/m2 (fill 100% in 2018). In 2018 we forecast that Revenue from Office leasing will stand at 943 bil (+80%yoy), accounted for about 20% REE’s total revenue. Net margin is expected to be stable at about 50%. •Catalyst: divestment 3.4% in coal REE 43,200 VND (+18.7% yoy) Mkt Cap VND 12,867 bil – Current price VND 41,500– PE FW 2018= 8.79x- FO 49% Leading Stock in M&E and investment in powerplants
  • 31. Top stocks pick: bottom Fishing + Divestment Financial indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F Revenue (VND billion) 3,251 3,318 3,361 3,621 4,021 Total asset 3,137 3,143 2,815 2,658 3,230 Total equity 1,536 1,673 1,582 1,592 1,683 EAT 353 415 395 197 229 % growth YoY 17.66% -4.78% -50.21% 16.60% EPS (VND/share) 4,246 4,785 3,327 1,390 1,766 Book value (VND/share) 16,807 18,307 13,318 13,404 14,166 Gross profit margin 25% 24% 21% 14% 14% ROS 11% 13% 12% 5% 6% ROE 23% 25% 25% 12% 14% • DRC’s capacity: 0.3 mil. Radial, 0.78 mil auto tires, 2 mil motorbike tires, 5 mil bicycle tires. CSM’s: 0.35 mil Radial, 1.2 mil auto tires, 6 mil motorbike, 4.9 mil. bicycle tires. • DRC operates at 100% of Radial capacity (~50% export) while CSM did at ~ 25% Radial capacity. 2018Q4, DRC will run phase 2 raise the capacity of Radial to 0.6 mill. Radial demand in Vietnam (expect +5% YoY), (exported price is 50% lower vs domestic). • The price of rubber is expected to be stable in 2018-2023, keeping at 25% lower than the price in 2017Q1, can help DRC recover the profit in 2018. • DRC’s revenue and profit is expected to be VND 4,037 bil (+11.5% YoY) and VND 230 bil (+16.8% YoY), equivalent to EPS 2018 of VND 1,768/share. • Catalyst: divestment; Trend of shifting from bias tires to radial tires DRC 31,900 VND (+31% yoy) Mkt Cap VND 3,029 Bil – Current price VND 24.200/share – P/E FW 13.7x – P/B 1.9x – FO 25.36% Leading Stock in tire, beaten in 2017
  • 32. Top stocks pick: Infrastructure 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net Rev 2,413 2,629 2,643 3,659 3,982 4,727 Total Asset 6,954 8,369 9,293 10,825 12,290 14,283 Equity 5,197 5,910 6,334 7,156 8,745 10,527 Gross profit 603 803 891 1,182 1,314 1,449 EAT 976 932 888 1,174 1,550 1,746 Gross Margin 25% 31% 34% 32% 33% 31% ROA 14% 11% 10% 11% 13% 12% ROE 19% 16% 14% 16% 18% 17% EPS 3,701 3,328 3,164 3,526 4,190 4,720 BVPS 19,708 21,965 23,494 23,080 28,203 33,950 •M&E segment: at the end of Sep 2017, backlog has reached VND 5.25 trillion, securing about 10% increase in revenue of this segment in 2018 reaching about VND 2,200 bil, •Investments in PPC, VSH, TMP and Ba Ha river are expected to provide stable earnings in 2018. Currently, REE invests about VND 5,700 in which electricity accounts for 86%, water resources 11%. In 2018, we forecast that PPC (REE’s main investment in electricity will record revenue and NPAT of VND 6,574 bil and VND 980 bil. •Office leasing: E-Tower at 11 Doan Van Bo completed, adding 35.000 m2 with average leasing rate of about 28 usd/m2 (fill 100% in 2018). In 2018 we forecast that Revenue from Office leasing will stand at 943 bil (+80%yoy), accounted for about 20% REE’s total revenue. Net margin is expected to be stable at about 50%. •Catalyst: divestment 3.4% in coal REE 43,200 VND (+18.7% yoy) Mkt Cap VND 12,867 bil – Current price VND 41,500– PE FW 2018= 8.79x- FO 49% Leading Stock in M&E and investment in powerplants
  • 33. Top stocks pick: Turnaround 2014 2015 2016 2017 (F) 2018 (F) Net revenue 31,704 23,357 18,682 18,165 22,623 % yoy 25% -26% -20% -3% 25% Equity 10,787 11,875 11,752 13,597 14,491 Chartered Capital 4467 4467 4467 5896 5896 Gross Margin 2,594 2,175 783 959 1,373 PAT 1,991 1,494 910 834 978 Gross Margin 8.2% 9.3% 4.2% 5.3% 6.1% ROE 18.46% 12.58% 7.74% 6.13% 6.75% ROS 6.3% 6.4% 4.9% 4.6% 4.3% EPS 3,890 2,989 2,046 1,876 2,200 BVPS 18,516 24,524 26,584 26,309 27,010 • EPC rebound in 2018, with the contribution of Ca Rong Do project ( VND 8,200 Bil for 2017-2019). Some major onshore projects include Long Phu Thermal ( VND 5,600 Bil for 2017-2020); and Long Son Refinery project (2018-2020) • Exploration activities. rental price is just enough for break-even, it is still a huge improvement from the loss of VND 252 Bil in 2016 • Long-term prospect is promising with Lo B O Mon and Ca Voi Xanh at sight. • Catalyst: Possibilities of receiving indemnification from FPSO Lam Son for early contract termination.~ VND 1,200 Bil ( VND 300 Bil @ 4 years) – Likely to receive VND 1000 bil and the FPSO contract will extend further with half of rental rate. PVS 20,500 VND (+22% yoy) Mkt Cap $347 Mil – Current price 16,800 VND/cp – P/E Forward 8.9x – P/B forward 0.6x Leading Stock in oil and gas with the change to turnaround in 2-3 years + diversified business
  • 34. Top stocks pick: Infrastructure 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F Net Rev 4,961 5,268 5,761 6,734 6,426 Total Asset 9,546 9,349 9,656 9,070 9,112 Equity 2,819 3,131 3,397 3,573 4,080 Gross profit 559 549 777 762 682 EAT 314 402 433 457 410 Gross Margin 11% 10% 13% 11% 11% ROA 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% ROE 11% 13% 13% 13% 10% EPS 1,029 1,334 1,439 1,520 1,303 BVPS 12,118 12,239 13,280 13,968 14,496 • Monopoly on crude oil transportation and 90% market share in LPG transportation (Crude oil 300.000 dwt, Clean oil 150.000 dwt, LPG 20.000 dwt) • Increase in coal transportation demand thanks to Plants invested by mother company PVN, namely Thai Binh 2, Long Hau 1, Song Hau 1 and Quang Trach 1. PVT takes over 50% coal needs (estimated at about 18.2 mil ton/year) • Transport about 2.5 mil ton crude oil per year for Nghi Son refinery, planned to be in operation from 2018, about 38% increase • Catalyst: Nghi son PVT 19,000 VND (+27% yoy) Mkt Cap VND4200 bil – Current price 14,950 VND/cp – P/E Forward 11.4x – P/B forward 1.03x Leading Stock in oil transportation + increasing demand
  • 35. Top stocks pick: Turnaround VND bn 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Net Revenue 134 1,630 2,212 4,731 4,776 Total Asset 10,571 13,241 17,124 26,736 35,468 Equity 5,311 6,204 6,855 9,749 10,484 Gross profit 40 915 1,028 1,237 510 EAT 3 685 736 744 (1,020) Gross margin 29.77% 56.13% 46.46% 26.15% 10.68% ROA 0.03% 5.18% 4.30% 2.78% -2.88% ROE 0.05% 11.05% 10.73% 7.63% -9.73% EPS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 BVPS 134 1,630 2,212 4,731 4,776 • Complete Debts restructuring, Sale of unprofitable assets Sugar cane VND 2,150 bil; Completed Convertible bond of VND 2,230 bil with Temasek • Planted and Marketed Fruit. If they success, PBT 2017 will be VND 308 bil, PBT 2018 will be VND 2,494 bil, EPS 2018 = VND 2,511 • One of largest fruit cultivating areas across Indochina with advantage of tropical climate (18,686 ha) • Profit = Profit from fruit cultivation + Profit from Logistic. Profit from complete value chain, keeping high margin level HNG 20,080 VND (+86% yoy) Mkt Cap VND 8,247 bil – Current price VND 10,750 – PE FW 2018 8x – FOL 49% Fruit is the key for turnaround chance
  • 36. Top stocks pick: Turnaround VND Bil 2014 2015 2016 2017 Net Revenue 9,317 8,631 7,397 11,089 (*) % yoy 26.0% -7.4% -14.3% 49.9% PAT of shareholders 318 321 459 770 % yoy 0.8% 42.9% 67.8% EPS 2,275 2,072 2,960 2,886 BVPS 15,578 19,236 21,115 23,596 Equity 2,181 2,982 3,273 6,295 Chartered Capital 1400 1550 1550 2668 Total Asset 5149 4918 8785 13534 ROA 6.2% 6.5% 5.2% 5.7% ROE 14.6% 10.8% 14.0% 12.2% • GELEX hold ownership in many large companies in the electricity equipment sectors, including CADIVI (74.73%); THIBIDI (70.79%); HEM (65.88%). • Improving margins in all subsidiaries since state divestment of GELEX in 2015. Net margins increase for CAV (from 3.8% to 5.5%); THIBIDI (from 8% to 8.5%) • High value asset – the company has land blocks, at prime position and low book value, including (1) Tran Nguyen Han (2) Number 52 Lê Đại Hành (3) 70-72 Nam Kỳ Khởi Nghĩa (under CAV) and Melia ( 35% owned by HEM). Book value of land ownership of GELEX is only VND 46 Bil GEX 25,900 VND (+28.0% yoy) Mkt Cap $235 mil – Current price 20,350 VND/cp – P/E Forward 7.05x – P/B forward 1.0x Leading stocks with low valuation (P/E forward = 7.05x) + output demand for GELEX’s subsidiaries. growth ranges 10 – 15%
  • 37. Top stocks pick: Infrastructure VND bn 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F Net Revenue 1,407 2,024 3,100 3,101 3,008 3,492 Total Asset 1,232 1,239 2,120 2,078 4,530 6,061 Equity 305 322 462 864 2,063 2,865 Gross profit 225 419 667 429 527 585 EAT 64 142 425 246 305 306 Gross margin 16% 21% 22% 14% 18% 17% ROA 5.2% 11.5% 20.0% 11.8% 6.7% 5.0% ROE 20.9% 44.3% 91.9% 28.4% 14.8% 10.7% EPS 4,380 7,740 21,060 7,180 4,050 2,538 BVPS 22,970 25,690 42,980 38,060 26,020 24,827 • leading power system construction (40% market): recover to 2,178bn revenue (+20% YoY) in 2017 thanks to 500kV Circuit 3 project (6,418 bn in investment). • Steel structure production: 2017 Rev is projected to reached 654bn (+15% YoY), export contract signed and with AG Ajikawa (2016: 35,000/50,000 tons). • hydroelectric plants (162MW), earn the revenue of 273 bn in 2017, increase to 670- 700bn in 2020 when all the plants operate. • Catalyst: Mỹ Đình Plaza 2 (2018:1,000 bil rev from 472 apartmen, 27-30mil/m2) and join venture (25%) rise from 60bn loss in 2016 to 11bn profit in 2017 PC1 43,000 VND (+19.4% yoy) Market Cap: VND 3,512 bn – VND 36,000/share –– Div yield: 7.5% - P/E 2017 FW: 11x – P/B 2017 FW: 1.3 – FO available: 19.3% ~ 18.9 mil shares leading company in power system construction + strong catalyst
  • 38. Top stocks pick: Turnaround 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Revenue (VND billion) 4,704 5,119 5,791 6,256 5,561 5,270 Total asset (VND billion) 4,014 4,220 4,615 5,525 6,230 6,364 Total equity (VND billion) 1,723 1,830 1,946 2,365 2,411 2,583 EAT (VND billion) 191 206 253 451 113 77 % growth YoY -23% 8% 23% 78% -74.96% -31.75% EPS (VND/share) 3,142 3,280 4,030 5,993 1,364 931 Book value (VND/share) 27,456 29,171 31,023 31,413 29,109 31,188 Gross profit margin 11% 11% 12% 13% 12.43% 9.80% ROS 4% 4% 4% 7% 2.03% 1.46% ROE 12% 12% 13% 21% 9.38% 5.97% ROA 5% 5% 6% 10% 3.63% 2.42% • Sold 50% DBC Food Processing to KDC  improve brand recognition and distribution system  long term performance. • Animal feeds. 2011-2016 CAGR of the sector = 6.96%, CAGR of DBC= 13.51%, estimated sector demand = 25 mil tons in 2021, 2016-2021 CAGR =5%. DBC’s current capacity = 1 mil tons  1.4 mil tons in 2019. • DBC owns large land banks at low cost of capital (about VND 417 bil book value), In 2017, book about VND180 billion to EBT from handover of real estate. • Catalysts: Pork prices recover, strong FDI in BacNinh DBC NA VND (+NA % yoy) Mkt Cap 102 Mil – Current price VND 28,400/share – P/E FW 8.69x – P/B 0.91x – FOL 49% Low valuation for Farm to Food company, high chance of valuation rerated after pork recover
  • 39. Thanks for your supports and confidence in us Long Tran Head of research Please feel free to contact me at E Longtt@bsc.com.vn P +84 4 39352722 (118) M +84 906 959 034 S rongbeo BSC