This document summarizes a model called FALLOW that simulates land use and livelihood decisions at the farm household level. [1] The model represents a continuum from subsistence to market-integrated livelihood strategies and includes dynamics of soil fertility, agroforestry resources, and knowledge learning. [2] The model explores the spatial dynamics and consequences of land use policies and payments for ecosystem services on livelihoods and environmental services like carbon stocks and biodiversity. [3] The model aims to account for historical land use changes in study areas and evaluate scenarios of business-as-usual versus interventions.
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Keynote Petr HavlikLotteKlapwijk
The document discusses modeling trade-offs in agricultural systems at regional and global scales. It presents an overview of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a partial equilibrium model that analyzes the agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy sectors. GLOBIOM is used to study issues like land use change, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, and incomes under different scenarios. Case studies examine questions around sustainable intensification, development pathways, and the impacts of changes in crop yields. The model aims to provide insights into complex trade-offs between competing land use demands.
This document outlines the agenda and objectives for a meeting discussing sustainable tree-based energy solutions in sub-Saharan Africa. The meeting will bring together representatives from NGOs, government, private sector, and academia to identify opportunities for transitioning to modern energy like biofuels and biomass electricity generation. Through group discussions and recommendations, the goal is to develop an action plan to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 of ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_Keynote Meine van NoordwijkLotteKlapwijk
This document discusses trade-offs between agricultural productivity, food security, profitability, and ecological services at the landscape and watershed level. It introduces concepts like balancing different Sustainable Development Goals, the role of tree cover transitions in agricultural intensification, quantifying buffer zones, and using sentinel landscapes as research tools. Sub-system interactions between factors like rules, incentives, governance, and local knowledge need to be considered to effectively achieve sustainable changes.
1) Ecological rainfall infrastructure involves investing in trees for sustainable development. Trees help store water by changing soils to be more effective buffers.
2) Trees consume water through evapotranspiration which leads to air cooling. They also help recycle water and store it in soils. This makes streamflow from forests more gradual.
3) Rainfall over land comes from oceans (60%) and vegetation (40%) on land. Trees use 100-200 mm more water per year than short vegetation through evapotranspiration, which has a cooling effect and puts more water in the atmosphere.
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Keynote Monika ZurekLotteKlapwijk
The document discusses using scenario planning to analyze and manage trade-offs in resource management decisions. It provides examples from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario work, which explored trade-offs decision makers may face under different scenarios. The assessment developed four scenarios based on different emphases on economic policy, environmentalism, technology, and local adaptation to examine impacts on ecosystems, ecosystem services, and human well-being. The scenarios helped analyze trade-offs between goals like food production, biodiversity, and water security under different pathways.
1) The document discusses assessing options for adaptation, mitigation and risk management at multiple scales, including household, community, national and global levels to understand trade-offs and synergies.
2) It also discusses assessing options across different temporal scales from coping with short-term disasters to adapting to long-term climate changes.
3) Finally, it examines assessing options across different domains of knowledge and approaches, balancing indigenous and scientific knowledge, and balancing technological and social learning approaches.
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Keynote Petr HavlikLotteKlapwijk
The document discusses modeling trade-offs in agricultural systems at regional and global scales. It presents an overview of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a partial equilibrium model that analyzes the agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy sectors. GLOBIOM is used to study issues like land use change, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, and incomes under different scenarios. Case studies examine questions around sustainable intensification, development pathways, and the impacts of changes in crop yields. The model aims to provide insights into complex trade-offs between competing land use demands.
This document outlines the agenda and objectives for a meeting discussing sustainable tree-based energy solutions in sub-Saharan Africa. The meeting will bring together representatives from NGOs, government, private sector, and academia to identify opportunities for transitioning to modern energy like biofuels and biomass electricity generation. Through group discussions and recommendations, the goal is to develop an action plan to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 of ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_Keynote Meine van NoordwijkLotteKlapwijk
This document discusses trade-offs between agricultural productivity, food security, profitability, and ecological services at the landscape and watershed level. It introduces concepts like balancing different Sustainable Development Goals, the role of tree cover transitions in agricultural intensification, quantifying buffer zones, and using sentinel landscapes as research tools. Sub-system interactions between factors like rules, incentives, governance, and local knowledge need to be considered to effectively achieve sustainable changes.
1) Ecological rainfall infrastructure involves investing in trees for sustainable development. Trees help store water by changing soils to be more effective buffers.
2) Trees consume water through evapotranspiration which leads to air cooling. They also help recycle water and store it in soils. This makes streamflow from forests more gradual.
3) Rainfall over land comes from oceans (60%) and vegetation (40%) on land. Trees use 100-200 mm more water per year than short vegetation through evapotranspiration, which has a cooling effect and puts more water in the atmosphere.
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Keynote Monika ZurekLotteKlapwijk
The document discusses using scenario planning to analyze and manage trade-offs in resource management decisions. It provides examples from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario work, which explored trade-offs decision makers may face under different scenarios. The assessment developed four scenarios based on different emphases on economic policy, environmentalism, technology, and local adaptation to examine impacts on ecosystems, ecosystem services, and human well-being. The scenarios helped analyze trade-offs between goals like food production, biodiversity, and water security under different pathways.
1) The document discusses assessing options for adaptation, mitigation and risk management at multiple scales, including household, community, national and global levels to understand trade-offs and synergies.
2) It also discusses assessing options across different temporal scales from coping with short-term disasters to adapting to long-term climate changes.
3) Finally, it examines assessing options across different domains of knowledge and approaches, balancing indigenous and scientific knowledge, and balancing technological and social learning approaches.
Crop residue tradeoffs in crop-livestock systems factors, processes and impli...ILRI
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This presentation discusses three main ways that local governments can promote innovation: traditional methods, organizational methods, and relational methods. Traditional methods usually require innovation across organizational boundaries, organizational methods involve rethinking processes within an organization, and relational methods require rethinking the relationship between public services and citizens. A variety of tools and processes are presented that can be used to systematically prompt innovation, such as design thinking, challenges, and pilot programs.
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Union County is a rural county in central Pennsylvania that is rich in agricultural, natural, historic, and small town resources. The comprehensive plan, which is expected to be adopted by the county commissioners this summer, was prepared with extensive public participation using the "values-driven" planning process pioneered by WRT. Through this process county residents expressed a strong interest in energy conservation and other sustainability issues.
"Union County is remarkable in that it is a small community with limited fiscal and staff resources that has made a commitment to sustainability in its draft comprehensive plan," said David Rouse, WRT's principal-in-charge of the project. "We expect major cities such as Seattle, Portland, and New York City to lead the way in addressing issues such as climate change and peak oil. However, we need many more places like Union County to take on this challenge if we are to find our way to a sustainable future."
Presented by Kinde Getnet, Nancy Johnson, Jemimah Njuki, Don Peden and Katherine Snyder at the Nile Basin Development Challenge Science and Reflection Workshop, Addis Ababa, 4-6 May 2011.
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Edwin Use Of Economic Incentives In Bioregionsa95osksj
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The document discusses frameworks for sustainable development. It addresses economic, social, environmental, and governance issues. Specifically, it examines three areas of focus: natural resource governance, urbanization and urban governance, and environmental governance. It emphasizes that democratic governance with inclusive institutions is indispensable for sustainable development by allowing for debate, accommodation of conflicting interests, and social consensus building. Key elements discussed include programmatic politics, evidence-based policymaking, and commitment to human development outcomes.
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I attempt to provide approaches and empirical evidence on the vulnerability of human populations and livestock systems; this will improve livelihood resilience by quantification of the temporal and spatial impact of climate risk for spread infectious diseases that are climate sensitive
This document provides an overview of the IEA DSM Task XXIV, which aims to close the gap between behavior change theory and practice in demand-side management. It discusses key concepts in demand-side management and behavior change. The task involves several subtasks: an expert platform, a helicopter overview of models and case studies, development of an evaluation tool, and country-specific recommendations. It also identifies four overarching themes in behavior change related to households, small- and medium-sized enterprises, buildings, and transport.
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Kickul NYU Social Sustainable Entrep TeachingNorris Krueger
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7 summer solstice2012-a cognitive heuristic model of epidemicsAle Cignetti
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The Economics of The Global Loss of Biological Diversity Brussels Workshop March 2008 Patrick ten Brink of IEEP. This was a contribution to a workshop to debate what can be said in what terms on the value of biodiversity loss and what role there is for economic values.
The Accelerating Impact of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project works to deliver a climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture.
AICCRA does this by enhancing access to climate information services and climate-smart agricultural technology to millions of smallholder farmers in Africa.
With better access to climate technology and advisory services—linked to information about effective response measures—farmers can better anticipate climate-related events and take preventative action that help communities better safeguard their livelihoods and the environment.
AICCRA is supported by a grant from the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank, which is used to enhance research and capacity-building activities by the CGIAR centers and initiatives as well as their partners in Africa.
About IDA: IDA helps the world’s poorest countries by providing grants and low to zero-interest loans for projects and programmes that boost economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve poor people’s lives.
IDA is one of the largest sources of assistance for the world’s 76 poorest countries, 39 of which are in Africa.
Annual IDA commitments have averaged about $21 billion over circa 2017-2020, with approximately 61 percent going to Africa.
This presentation was given on 27 October 2021 by Mengpin Ge, Global Climate Program Associate at WRI, during the webinar "Achieving NDC Ambition in Agriculture" organized by CCAFS, FAO and WRI.
Find the recording and more information here: https://bit.ly/AchievingNDCs
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Van noordwijk fallow_modelingworkshopamsterdam_2012-04-23
1. FALLOW
Meine van Desi Rachmat Betha
Noordwijk Suyamto Mulia Lusiana
www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/fallow_download
Short presentation at CCAFS workshop: Farm-
household modelling with a focus on food security,
climate change adaptation, risk management and
mitigation: a way forward, 23-25 April 2012
2. Macro-climate change
Globalization and desakota integration
Rural development Government:
infrastructure,
Labour, Land, land use/access
Water, Soil fer- planning
tility, Germplasm,
Capital
Decision
Knowledge and making on Self-reliant vs
know-how, market-reliant
Norms &
agricultural livelihood
sanctions resource strategies
use
Sustainability &
Agent differen-
tiation: gender, Sustainagility
class, age, Private sec-
power, ethnicity tor: input &
output
markets
3. Framing human behaviour & decisions:
Optimal foraging, Agricultural Portfolio theory of
opportunistic use economics: NPV, risk & rational
of time; “pico- R2L; “micro- diversity: “meso-
economics” economics” economics”
Collective action, Linear Development
bounded altruism, programming, planning & ‘green
social norms, do’s multi-goal growth’: “macro-
& don’ts optimization economics”
Trusted sources of Agent-based Payments for eco-
information: models: wealth, system services:
extension & class, age, gender, “environmental
innovation theory power, ethnicity economics”
Rights-based Planetary boun-
System dynamics:
approaches: daries, ecological
positive & negative
bundles of rights sustainability:
feedback loops
to resource use “giga-economics”
4. Framing human behaviour & decisions:
Optimal foraging, Agricultural Portfolio theory of
opportunistic use economics: NPV, risk & rational
of time; “pico- R2L; “micro- diversity: “meso-
economics” economics” economics”
Grand synthesis is yet to come, but
Collective action,
bounded altruism,
Linear
programming,
Development
planning & ‘green
we’re starting to connect at least
social norms, do’s
& don’ts
multi-goal
optimization
growth’: “macro-
economics”
some of these theories in our current
Trusted sources of
information:
Agent-based
models: wealth,
Payments for eco-
system services:
extension & class, age, gender, environmental
models….
innovation theory power, ethnicity economics”
Rights-based Planetary boun-
System dynamics:
approaches: daries, ecological
positive & negative
bundles of rights sustainability:
feedback loops
to resource use “giga-economics”
5. The FALLOW model currently contains ele-ments of several theories of
decision making:
Optimal foraging, Agricultural Portfolio theory of
opportunistic use economics: NPV, risk & rational
of time; “pico- R2L; “micro- diversity: “meso-
economics” economics” economics”
Agent-based Trusted sources of
System dynamics:
models: wealth, information:
positive & negative
class, age, gender, extension &
feedback loops
power, ethnicity innovation theory
Rights-based Payments for eco-
Dynamic Geo-
approaches: system services:
Informatics
bundles of rights “environmental
System
to resource use economics”
7. A1. Land use policies, spatial development planning
A2. LU rights (e.g. community forest mngmnt)
Livelihoods, provisioning
& profitability
Land Conse- Response/
Actors/
Drivers use/cover quences & feedback
agents
changes functions options
Biodiversity, Watershed
functions, GHG emissions,
Landscape beauty
B2. PES and conditional ES incentives
B1. Incentive structure through policy change (tax, subsidy etc)
Modified from Van Noordwijk et al., 2011
8. Short model description
Goal of model development:
• Represent continuum of ‘subsistence’ to ‘market integration’, shifting
cultivation to permanently cropped fields, labour + cash constrained
decisions in a ‘tropical forest margin’ setting
• Dynamics of soil fertility (~ Trenbath) and (agro)forest resources
• Relate dynamic knowledge of landscape agents to dynamic action
(decision making) in ‘adopt & learn’ mode; open to impact analysis of
‘extension’
• Explore spatial dynamics, consequences of land use zoning, restrictions
to access
• Tradeoff and scenario analysis of livelihoods & ES (C-stocks,
biodiversity, key watershed functions)
• Use in spatial planning and scenario development boundary work
Typical research questions addressed:
1) Can we account for historical land use change of a study area
(calibration/validation phase)
2) What can we expect (‘scenarios’) of ‘business as usual’ extrapolation
compared to specific interventions in spatial planning, demographic,
economic, K-dynamics, PES-incentive systems
9. Short model description
maximizing ‘utility’ ‘model inside the model’:
(profitability)
• Diagram dynamic knowledge - learning
(external-extension and
of model internal - experience)
≈
13. Developments needed to
better deal with this attribute
Attribute Covered If ‘yes’, which Which indicators For your model For house-
in pre- indicators were used? would you like to use hold level
vious ana- in future to deal with models in
lyses? attribute? general
Economic Y •Non-food expendi- • Empirical GINI • Learning sty- Multiple
performance ture coefficients les ~ decision discount
• Returns to labour • (Attractiveness to) rules rates ~
• Learning styles external investment •Degree of decision
•In/out-migration • External input prioritization making
as outcome dependency
Food self- Y • Landscape-level • Empirical GINI Preferential Distribu-
sufficiency production ~ coefficients treatment of tional
demand staple food ~ issues,
•Exchange across portfolio landless
landscape border choices HH’s
Food security Y •Income security • Empirical GINI Multiple buffer Risk avoi-
•Interannual buffer coefficients concepts ~ ex- dance in
•Nutritional ternal shocks switch to
diversity markets
14. Developments needed to better
deal with this attribute
Attribute Covered in If ‘yes’, which Which indicators would For your model For house-hold
previous indicators were you like to use in future level models in
analyses? used? to deal with attribute? general
Climate y Single random Partial correlates of Link to rela- Portfolio
variability variate on yields stochastic effects on ted model for analysis,
multiple crops & prepro- multiple
income sources cessing buffers
Risk y Multiple model Substitutibility Partial de- Desakota
runs across key across different pendence of family
stochastic para- buffer types external price networks (rur-
meters variation urb)
Mitigation y Landscape level Livestock-based PES mecha- x-scale PES
C stocks emission estimates nisms ~ HH mechanisms
scale
Adaptation y Local experience Interactions Meso-clima- X-scale
based learning between diverse tic influences sustain-agility
as driver of learning styles on ClimVar analyses
decisions impacts
15. Final remarks
Common features in x-scale
model family ~ databases Tree FBA allometry
Plot/patch WaNuLCAS,
SExI-FS
Household/landscape
FALLOW, ABM’s
GenRiver
Watershed
Daily Annual time-steps
Strong interest in using models as ‘boundary objects’ in K2A analysis with local stakeholders
16. Initial version in Stella for 10*10 grid
Simplified model operates on PC-Raster dynamic GIS platform,
district level <100,000 ha Recent applications
Suyamto DA, Mulia R, van 1) in context of
OpCost/REALU in
Noordwijk M and Lusiana Indonesia, Viet Nam
B. 2009. Fallow 2.0. Manual and 2) Aceh post Tsunami
Software. Bogor, Indonesia. World recovery & land use
planning
Agroforestry Centre - ICRAF, SEA 3) Livestock intergration
Regional Office. 67 p. 4) University courses
http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/af2/fallow_download
17.
18. Multipurpose agroforestry as a climate
change resiliency option for farmers: an
example of local adaptation in Vietnam
Quan Nguyen, Minh Ha Hoang, Ingrid Öborn, and Meine van Noordwijk
Recently, the Commission on Sustainable
Agriculture and Climate Change (Beddington
et al. 2011) launched its recommendations for
ensuring food security under a changing
climate. The report does not mention trees,
forests or agroforestry as important for food
security. This is in contrast to the ways farming
traditions have evolved (van Noordwijk et al.
2011) and how farmers currently try to adapt
to further climate change.
19. Solar radiation and Green-House Gas effect
Vegetation effects on
rainfall triggering
Macro- Teleconnections of
rainfall with sea sur-
face temperature
Rainfall pattern&intensity Meso-
Local tree cover: wind-
breaks, shade trees
Temperature, humidity,
windspeed, incoming
Micro - Plant
growth
radiation, potential eva-
potranspiration at the level
climate Water supply
of plants or animals buffered by soil
20. Pfrom Et/P
van der Ent RJ, Savenije
HHG, Schaefli B, Steele‐
Dunne SC, 2010. Origin
and fate of atmospheric
moisture over
continents. Water
Resources Research 46, E/P
W09525,
21. South Africa’s
concept of pay-
ments for tree
plantations that
evaporate water at
above-average
rates, can not be
transferred to E.
Africa, where such
evapotrans-piration
is likely to return as
rainfall.
22. Financial capital
Emotion, intuition
Macro-economic Human Social Risk & .
development buffering
capital Pico- capital
economics
sermons
Ratio Social norms
Infra- Natural
structure Spatial planning & LU rights capital
Giga-economic green development