Understand govt budgeting

1. Understand Govt.
Priority from
National Budget

2. Understand Govt. Priority
from National Budget

3. There is an adage that says that “the Priority of a
person can be deduced from what he spends Money
on”. This is applicable to Family, Community,
Orgainsations and Nations.
The Nigerian government has gone through some
transition – from Military governance to Democratic
Rule – precisely in 1999 a new democratic
government came to power, from 1999 to 2013, we
have had 3 Elected Presidents, each with their
peculiar programme.
As a result, Programmes/Projects are sometimes
abandoned mid-way because their is no binding goal
or vision that an elected President would run with
irrespective of his personal agenda.

4. The purpose of this budget analysis is four-fold:
1
3
To ascertain
whether budgets
are allocated in line
with policy
priorities, as
determined by the
government
To understand
from National
Budgets the
priority of
government from
1999 till date
To determine the
budget growth
rate and changes
in budget
priorities
To calculate the
annual growth
rate of Nigeria
Budget over a
period
2
4

5. There are 31 Ministries with several Agencies that helps the
Government prosecute programmes as may be considered
priority by the government in Power.
Agriculture
Aviation
Communications Technology
Defence
Education
Environment
Federal Capital Development Agency
Finance & Economic Development
Foreign Affairs
Health
Trade and Investment
Culture Tourism & National Orientation
Information
Interior
Justice
Labour & Productivity
Petroleum Resources
Niger Delta
Mines & Steel Development
Power
Science & Technology
Special Duties
Transport
Water Resources
Women Affairs & Social Development
Works
Lands, Housing & Urban Development
Sports
Youth Development
Police Affairs
National Planning Commission

6. President & Programme Priority
Olusegun Obasanjo
(1999 – 2007)
Top Agenda
a) Foreign Policy
b) Finance
c) Health
d) Information &
Communication
e) Security

7. President & Programme Priority
Top Agenda
a) Critical Infrastructure
b)Niger Delta
c) Food Security
d)Human Capital Development
e) Land Tenure and Home
Ownership
f) National Security and
Intelligence
g)Wealth Creation
Umaru Yar'adua
(2007 – 2010)

8. Elected President & Programme Priority
Top Agenda
a) Job Creation
b) Education
c) Health
d) Power
e) Transportation
f) Niger Delta
g) Labour & Productivity
Dr. Goodluck Jonathan h) Foreign Policy & Economic Diplomacy
(2010 – till date)
i) Legislature
j) Governance
NPC
Finance
k) Judiciary & Justice Delivery
Transportation
l) Public Expenditure Management
Agriculture
m)Information & Communication
Niger Delta
Technology (ICT)
Works
Aviation
FCT

9. Summary of Agenda/Ministry Priority
President
Olusegun Obasanjo
Umaru Yar’adua
Goodluck Jonathan
Ministry
Foreign Affairs, Finance, Health,
Information & Communication,
Defence, Power
Power, Works, Niger Delta,
Agriculture, Education, Lands,
Housing & Urban Development,
Defence, Labour & Productivity
Education,
Health,
Power,
Transportation,
Niger
Delta,
Labour & Productivity, Foreign
Affairs,
Justice,
Finance,
Communication Technology

10. Defence
OBJ
YAR
ICT,
Health,
Finance,
Foreign
Affairs
Power
Labour &
Productivity
Niger Delta
Education
Transportation,
Justice
GEJ

11. Normalizing
Budgetary Allocation

12. Definition of Terms:
In order to understand this section, it is important to define
some terms that will be used in normalizing the budgetary
allocations.
Nominal
terms
When government budgets, they allocate budget in actual
monetary value in terms of its purchasing power at current
prices. This is refer to as Nominal value. This value do not take
into account the effect of inflation on the real value of money.
This is when budgetary values are measured in terms of their
purchasing power at a particular time. For instance, GDP may
be measured in constant 2006 prices by taking into
consideration the effect of inflation.
Deflator
Real
terms
A statistical tool used to convert current currency into inflationadjusted currency, in order to compare prices over time after
factoring out the overall effects of inflation.

13. Deflators from 1999 - 2013
Year
1999
Deflator 0.74
Year
Deflator
Year
Deflator
2000
1.00
2005
1.85
2010
2.68
2001
0.96
2006
2.22
2002
1.15
2007
2.31
2011
3.08
2003
1.28
2008
2.56
2012
3.44
2004
1.55
2009
2.45
2013
3.61
The Deflator for the base year is always 1.00. Year 2000 is
going to be the base year

14. Formula for Calculating
Real Value from Nominal Value
Nominal Value
Deflator
Real Value
Year
1999
2000
2001
…
2013
Nominal
Real
Deflator
The formula above will be used to calculate and fill up
the table

15. Nominal Value: Budget Presentation (1999 – 2013)
Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total*
60,549,835,647
470,009,971,781
894,214,805,186
1,064,801,253,520
976,254,543,375
1,790,848,344,588
1,799,938,243,138
1,876,302,363,351
2,266,394,423,477
2,492,076,718,937
2,870,510,042,679
4,608,616,278,213
4,226,191,559,259
4,749,100,821,170
4,987,220,425,601
Recurrent
Capital
230,000,000,000
397,856,858,542
578,096,146,413
593,903,247,703
539,286,472,751
737,330,997,094
961,108,775,596
1,056,563,540,997
1,259,121,253,061
1,649,429,453,681
2,077,358,560,347
2,481,705,176,915
2,471,814,067,335
2,386,024,770,349
170,009,971,781
496,357,946,644
486,705,107,107
382,351,295,672
349,868,371,837
617,284,246,044
539,233,587,755
781,530,882,480
673,155,465,876
796,737,536,101
1,853,906,761,420
1,005,989,391,174
1,319,777,651,919
1,621,455,655,252
Total Budget = Recurrent + Capital + Debt + Statutory

16. Nominal Value: Budget Presentation (1999 – 2013)
Year
Total
1999
to
11,199,313,784,063
OBJ
2007
2008
to
9,971,203,039,829
YAR
2010
2011
to
13,962,512,806,030
GEJ
2013
AVG (OBJ) 1,244,368,198,229
Recurrent
Capital
5,094,146,039,096
3,823,341,409,320
4,985,909,267,089
3,323,799,763,397
7,339,544,014,599
3,947,222,698,345
636,768,254,887
477,917,676,165
AVG (YAR)
3,323,734,346,610
1,661,969,755,696
1,107,933,254,466
AVG (GEJ)
4,654,170,935,343
2,446,514,671,533
1,315,740,899,448
TOTAL
35,133,029,629,922 17,419,599,320,784 11,094,363,871,062
In 9 Budget Years (1999 – 2007); Total budget under OBJ was
approximately 11.2tr. On the average, 1.2tr was spent per year.

17. Real Value calculation
Nominal Value
Deflator
Real Value
2005:
1,799,938,243,138
1.85
Year Deflator
2005
2006
1.85
2.22
Total
Nominal
Real
Nominal
Real
= 972,939,590,885
Recurrent
1,799,938,243,138 737,330,997,094
972,939,590,885
Capital
617,284,246,044
398,557,295,726
333,667,160,024
1,876,302,363,351 961,108,775,596
539,233,587,755
845,181,244,753
432,931,880,899
242,898,012,502

18. Real Value: Budget Presentation (1999 – 2013)
Year Deflator
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.74
1
0.96
1.15
1.28
1.55
1.85
2.22
2.31
2.56
2.45
2.68
3.08
3.44
3.61
Total
Recurrent
Capital
81,824,102,226
470,009,971,781
931,473,755,402
925,914,133,496
762,698,862,012
1,155,386,028,766
972,939,590,885
845,181,244,753
981,123,127,046
973,467,468,335
1,171,636,752,114
1,719,632,939,632
1,372,140,116,643
1,380,552,564,294
1,381,501,502,937
230,000,000,000
414,434,227,648
502,692,301,229
463,986,912,268
347,926,756,614
398,557,295,726
432,931,880,899
457,386,814,284
491,844,239,477
673,236,511,707
775,133,791,174
805,748,434,063
718,550,600,969
660,948,689,847
170,009,971,781
517,039,527,754
423,221,832,267
298,711,949,744
225,721,530,217
333,667,160,024
242,898,012,502
338,325,057,351
262,951,353,858
325,198,994,327
691,756,254,261
326,619,932,199
383,656,294,163
449,156,691,206

19. Real Value: Budget Presentation (1999 – 2013)
Year
Deflator
1999
OBJ to
2007
2008
YAR to
2010
2011
GEJ to
2013
Total
Recurrent
Capital
7,126,550,816,367
3,864,737,160,080
1,940,214,542,358 1,279,906,602,446
4,134,194,183,873
AVG (OBJ) 1.45 (1.54)*
3,247,916,188,668 2,549,595,041,640
2,185,247,724,880 1,159,432,917,567
546,095,847,997
263,629,560,769
206,947,649,484
AVG (YAR)
2.56
503,220,984,385
252,632,101,869
166,654,505,527
AVG (GEJ)
3.38
407,711,457,976
215,507,665,176
114,342,496,802
TOTAL
15,125,482,160,320
7,373,378,455,906 4,988,934,561,653
In 9 Budget Years (1999 – 2007); Total Real budget (taking inflation into
consideration) under OBJ was approximately 7.13tr. On the average,
546Billion was spent per year.
* 1.45 is average of Deflators for 9yrs, while 1.54 is for 8yrs. 1.54 is used for both Recurrent and Capital
since no allocation were made in 1999.

20. OBJ: Budget Allocations (1999 – 2007)
Nominal & Real:
Nominal
Total
1999 to
2007
AVG
TOTAL
Recurrent
Capital
11,199,313,784,063
5,094,146,039,096
3,823,341,409,320
1,244,368,198,229
636,768,254,887
477,917,676,165
35,133,029,629,922 17,419,599,320,784 11,094,363,871,062
%
31.88
29.24
34.46
While Nominal value shows that OBJ spent 31.88% of Total Budget
between 1999 – 2013, the Real value shows that it was 47.12%
Real
1999 to
2007
AVG
TOTAL
%
Def.
1.45
(1.54)*
Total
Recurrent
Capital
7,126,550,816,367
3,247,916,188,668
2,549,595,041,640
546,095,847,997
263,629,560,769
206,947,649,484
15,125,482,160,320 7,373,378,455,906
47.12
44.05
4,988,934,561,653
51.11

21. OBJ: Priority (1999 – 2007)
President
OBJ
Priority Ministry Based on Declaration/Focus
Foreign Affairs, Finance, Health, Information &
Communication, Defence, Power
Objective 1:
To ascertain whether budgets are allocated in
line with policy priorities, as determined by the
government
Objective 2:
To understand from National Budgets the
priority of government from 1999 till date

22. Objective 1:
To ascertain whether budgets are allocated in line with policy priorities, as
determined by the government.
To Do: Confirm if the budget of the following Ministries ranks higher
than other ministries - Foreign Affairs, Finance, Health, Information &
Communication, Defence, Power
MINISTRY
Total Budget
Defence
Power
Health
Foreign Affairs
Information
Finance
MINISTRY
Total Budget
Defence
Power
Health
Foreign Affairs
Information
Finance
2007
2006
2005
2,266,394,423,477 1,876,302,363,351 1,799,938,243,138
117,314,507,407 98,359,999,999
111,868,968,876
104,651,569,540 75,850,000,000
93,294,415,519
122,399,999,999 105,590,000,000
71,685,426,092
41,351,772,928
29,500,000,000
33,124,758,316
19,353,762,428
14,415,986,568
29,430,435,710
10,232,352,402
12,025,000,000
17,235,132,969
2003
2002
2001
976,254,543,375 1,064,801,253,520 894,214,805,186
58,613,225,424
64,908,031,039
61,565,511,944
36,676,857,552
69,960,796,880
73,925,163,473
52,149,106,213
44,652,636,040
42,629,588,516
17,028,004,353
16,353,262,879
15,392,552,465
7,912,798,350
15,529,233,560
11,212,554,765
16,883,279,026
11,825,221,600
10,695,271,875
2004
1,790,848,344,588
76,057,340,928
58,935,614,817
59,787,376,511
17,422,571,561
12,992,626,447
17,466,407,044
2000
470,009,971,781
35,062,097,640
16,886,900,460
17,114,684,155
11,729,143,960
2,717,202,268
9,740,279,000
1999
60,549,835,647
5,500,000,000
2,319,250,000
1,000,000,000
900,000,000

23. MINISTRY
Defence
Power
Health
Foreign Affairs
Information
Finance
Total Allocation
%
623,749,683,257
535,681,318,241
518,328,067,526
182,902,066,462
114,464,600,096
106,102,943,916
5.57
4.78
4.63
1.63
1.02
0.95
Objective 2:
To understand from National Budgets the priority of government from 1999 till date
MINISTRY
Education
Works
Defence
Power
Health
Police Formation and Commands
Water Resources
FCT
Presidency
Interior
Allocation
821,356,629,283
649,370,619,933
623,749,683,257
535,681,318,241
518,328,067,526
462,410,270,667
434,265,470,799
325,631,971,297
312,143,493,655
234,392,995,522
%
7.33
5.80
5.57
4.78
4.63
4.13
3.88
2.91
2.79
2.09

24. Findings
 From the foregoing, it can be inferred that while priorities
were set on these Ministries, Defence, Finance, Foreign
Affairs, Health, Information & Communication, and Power,
budgetary allocation did not entirely reflect that they
were priorities.
 It is commendable that three (Defence, Power & Health)
of these priority Ministries were given higher credence.
 From the Budgetary Allocation, Education and Works’
Ministries were given the highest allocation respectively.
 The Education ministry was allocated the highest budget
in 2000 (8.71%), 2003 (7.75%), 2004 (5.24%), 2005
(6.67%) and 2007 (8.81%).
 The Ministry with the highest singular allocation was
Ministry of Works, it was allocated 15.83% of total budget.

25. YAR: Budget Allocations (2008 – 2010)
Nominal
Total
TOTAL
Capital
9,971,203,039,829
4,985,909,267,089
3,323,799,763,397
3,323,734,346,610
2008 to
2010
AVG
Recurrent
1,661,969,755,696
1,107,933,254,466
35,133,029,629,922 17,419,599,320,784 11,094,363,871,062
%
28.38
28.62
29.96
While Nominal value shows that YAR spent 28.38% of Total Budget
between 2008 – 2010, the Real value shows that it was 25.55%
Real
Def.
2008 to
2010
3,864,737,160,080
2.56
AVG
TOTAL
%
Total
503,220,984,385
15,125,482,160,320
25.55
Recurrent
Capital
1,940,214,542,358 1,279,906,602,446
252,632,101,869
166,654,505,527
7,373,378,455,906 4,988,934,561,653
26.31
25.65

26. YAR: Priority (2008 – 2010)
President
YAR
Priority Ministry Based on Declaration/Focus
Power, Works, Niger Delta, Agriculture,
Education, Lands, Housing & Urban
Development, Defence, Labour & Productivity
Objective 1:
To ascertain whether budgets are allocated in
line with policy priorities, as determined by the
government
Objective 2:
To understand from National Budgets the
priority of government from 1999 till date

27. Objective 1:
To ascertain whether budgets are allocated in line with policy priorities, as
determined by the government.
To Do: Confirm if the budget of the following Ministries ranks higher
than other ministries - Power, Works, Niger Delta, Agriculture, Education,
Lands, Housing & Urban Development, Defence, Labour & Productivity.
Year
Total Budget
2010
2009
2008
Aggregate
4,608,616,278,213 2,870,510,042,679 2,492,076,718,937 9,971,203,039,829
%
Education
295,293,389,496
216,639,437,111
210,444,818,579
722,377,645,186
7.24
Defence
291,719,069,185
201,406,861,244
151,940,617,034
645,066,547,463
6.47
Agriculture & Rural
Development
184,396,769,831
119,763,275,542
152,111,452,763
456,271,498,135
4.58
Power
194,523,673,105
93,437,462,789
139,783,534,336
427,744,670,230
4.29
Works
250,046,528,157
173,330,753,464
0
423,377,281,621
4.25
Niger Delta
93,889,415,401
50,000,000,000
0
143,889,415,401
1.44
Labour &
Productivity
15,033,288,654
6,237,011,718
6,142,634,383
27,412,934,756
0.27

28. Objective 2:
To understand from National Budgets the priority of
government from 2008 - 2010
Year
Total Budget
Education
Defence
Health
2010
2009
2008
Aggregate
4,608,616,278,213 2,870,510,042,679 2,492,076,718,937 9,971,203,039,829
295,293,389,496
216,639,437,111 210,444,818,579 722,377,645,186
291,719,069,185
201,406,861,244 151,940,617,034 645,066,547,463
179,999,734,315
143,107,216,257 138,179,657,132 461,286,607,704
%
7.24
6.47
4.63
Agriculture &
Rural Dev.
184,396,769,831
119,763,275,542
152,111,452,763
456,271,498,135
4.58
Interior
95,953,764,285
82,230,690,736
266,371,519,798
444,555,974,819
4.46
Police Formation
& Commands
245,095,275,181
195,358,792,301
0
440,454,067,482
4.42
Power
Works
Transport
FCT
194,523,673,105
250,046,528,157
134,414,036,176
138,360,000,000
93,437,462,789
173,330,753,464
39,392,035,203
64,450,000,000
139,783,534,336
0
124,444,316,123
37,958,110,000
427,744,670,230
423,377,281,621
298,250,387,502
240,768,110,000
4.29
4.25
2.99
2.41

29. Findings
 There is high correlation between government
programme priority and budgeting.
 Ministries of Education, Defence, Agriculture, Power and
Works received higher budgetary allocation in line with
government programme priority.
 The Ministry of Education, Defence and Health were the
top three ministries with 7.24%, 6.47% and 4.63% of the
Budget.
Education
Defence
Agriculture
Power
Works
Niger Delta
Labour & Prod.
Budget
Priority
Health
Interior
Police
Command
Transport
FCT
Programme
Priority

30. GEJ: Budget Allocations (2011 – 2013)
Nominal
2011 to
2013
AVG (GEJ)
TOTAL
Total
Recurrent
Capital
13,962,512,806,030
7,339,544,014,599
3,947,222,698,345
4,654,170,935,343
2,446,514,671,533
1,315,740,899,448
35,133,029,629,922 17,419,599,320,784 11,094,363,871,062
%
39.74
42.13
35.58
While Nominal value shows that GEJ spent 39.74% of Total Budget
between 2011 – 2013, the Real value shows that it was 27.33%
Real
Def.
2011 to
2013
AVG (GEJ)
TOTAL
%
Total
4,134,194,183,873
3.38
407,711,457,976
15,125,482,160,320
27.33
Recurrent
Capital
2,185,247,724,880 1,159,432,917,567
215,507,665,176
114,342,496,802
7,373,378,455,906 4,988,934,561,653
29.64
23.24

31. GEJ: Priority (2011 – 2013)
President Priority Ministry Based on Declaration/Focus
Education, Health, Power, Transportation, Niger
GEJ
Delta, Labour & Productivity, Foreign Affairs,
Justice, Finance, Communication Technology
Objective 1:
To ascertain whether budgets are allocated in
line with policy priorities, as determined by the
government
Objective 2:
To understand from National Budgets the
priority of government from 1999 till date

32. Objective 1:
To ascertain whether budgets are allocated in line with policy priorities, as
determined by the government.
To Do: Confirm if the budget of the following Ministries ranks higher
than other ministries - Education, Health, Power, Transportation, Niger
Delta, Labour & Productivity, Foreign Affairs, Justice, Finance,
Communication Technology.
Year
Total Budget
2013
2012
2011
Aggregate
4,987,220,425,601 4,749,100,821,170 4,226,191,559,259 13,962,512,806,030
%
Education
432,760,713,761
400,148,037,983
339,481,528,685 1,172,390,280,429 8.40
Health
279,819,553,930
282,771,771,425
235,866,483,244
798,457,808,599
5.72
Power
77,363,387,564
73,416,536,317
90,026,917,709
240,806,841,590
1.72
Niger Delta
64,706,473,318
59,723,482,821
56,629,811,018
181,059,767,157
1.30
Foreign Affairs
71,602,678,070
50,186,470,959
45,239,702,831
167,028,851,860
1.20
Transport
52,738,692,336
54,825,494,233
55,954,636,803
163,518,823,372
1.17
Justice
22,164,762,081
22,330,185,048
19,822,776,913
64,317,724,042
0.46
Finance
14,896,868,382
13,397,725,756
15,150,616,144
43,445,210,282
0.31
Communications Tech. 15,742,880,079
18,305,107,489
0
34,047,987,568
0.24
12,718,574,857
10,851,966,886
8,616,487,013
32,187,028,756
0.23
Labour & Productivity

33. Objective 2:
To understand from National Budgets the priority of
government from 2011 – 2013.
Year
2013
2012
2011
Aggregate
4,987,220,425,601 4,749,100,821,170 4,226,191,559,259 13,962,512,806,030
%
Total Budget
432,760,713,761 400,148,037,983
339,481,528,685
1,172,390,280,429 8.40%
Education
364,415,146,886 326,354,184,382
313,869,733,252
1,004,639,064,520 7.20%
Defence
Police Formation
311,151,366,222 307,857,718,425
304,737,303,692
923,746,388,339 6.62%
& Commands
279,819,553,930 282,771,771,425
235,866,483,244
798,457,808,599 5.72%
Health
194,781,682,742 180,799,815,246
163,564,863,303
539,146,361,291 3.86%
Works
154,731,693,977 157,332,986,945
158,157,297,012
470,221,977,934 3.37%
Interior
National Security
115,512,690,505 124,263,761,913
105,240,648,267
345,017,100,685 2.47%
Adviser
77,363,387,564
73,416,536,317
90,026,917,709
240,806,841,590 1.72%
Power
Agriculture &
83,204,844,639
78,984,828,949
63,526,625,985
225,716,299,573 1.62%
Rural Dev.
79,579,478,867
70,591,647,019
63,563,978,749
213,735,104,635 1.53%
SGF
86,944,795,951
76,075,840,142
47,272,599,579
210,293,235,672 1.51%
Youth Dev.

34. Findings
 There is low correlation between government
programme priority and budgeting.
 We found this correlation in three ministries; Education,
Health and Power
 Ministries of Education, Defence, Police Formation and
Commands, Health and Works have budget allocation
priority
Education
Health
Power
Niger Delta
Labour & Prod.
Budget
Priority
Defence
Police Command
Works
Interior
NSA
Agriculture
SGF
Youth Dev.
Programme
Priority

35. 1999
2000
2001
2013
To determine the budget
growth rate and changes
in budget priorities

36. While budget growth rate can be inferred from Nominal value,
however the Real value gives one the exact growth rate in a
normalized system where inflation is taken into consideration.
Year
Total Budget (Nominal)
Deflator
Total Budget (Real)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
60,549,835,647
470,009,971,781
894,214,805,186
1,064,801,253,520
976,254,543,375
1,790,848,344,588
1,799,938,243,138
1,876,302,363,351
2,266,394,423,477
2,492,076,718,937
2,870,510,042,679
4,608,616,278,213
4,226,191,559,259
4,749,100,821,170
4,987,220,425,601
0.74
1.00
0.96
1.15
1.28
1.55
1.85
2.22
2.31
2.56
2.45
2.68
3.08
3.44
3.61
81,824,102,226
470,009,971,781
931,473,755,402
925,914,133,496
762,698,862,012
1,155,386,028,767
972,939,590,885
845,181,244,753
981,123,127,046
973,467,468,335
1,171,636,752,114
1,719,632,939,632
1,372,140,116,643
1,380,552,564,294
1,381,501,502,937
With the assumption that Year 2000 is our base year,
therefore the deflator is assumed to be at 1.00.

37. The Real value for 2001 budget is N931 billion, compared to N894 billion
prior to the consideration of inflation. Even though there was an increase
of N424 billion in nominal terms, the actual increase for the 2001
financial year is N461 billion.
Year Total Budget (Nominal) Change (Nominal)
60,549,835,647
1999
470,009,971,781
2000
409,460,136,134
894,214,805,186
2001
424,204,833,405
1,064,801,253,520
2002
170,586,448,334
976,254,543,375
2003
-88,546,710,145
1,790,848,344,588
2004
814,593,801,213
1,799,938,243,138
2005
9,089,898,550
1,876,302,363,351
2006
76,364,120,213
2,266,394,423,477
2007
390,092,060,126
2,492,076,718,937
2008
225,682,295,460
2,870,510,042,679
2009
378,433,323,742
4,608,616,278,213
2010
1,738,106,235,534
4,226,191,559,259
2011
-382,424,718,954
4,749,100,821,170
2012
522,909,261,911
4,987,220,425,601
2013
238,119,604,431
Total Budget (Real)
81,824,102,226
470,009,971,781
931,473,755,402
925,914,133,496
762,698,862,012
1,155,386,028,767
972,939,590,885
845,181,244,753
981,123,127,046
973,467,468,335
1,171,636,752,114
1,719,632,939,632
1,372,140,116,643
1,380,552,564,294
1,381,501,502,937
Change (Real)
388,185,869,555
461,463,783,621
-5,559,621,906
-163,215,271,484
392,687,166,755
-182,446,437,882
-127,758,346,132
135,941,882,293
-7,655,658,711
198,169,283,779
547,996,187,518
-347,492,822,989
8,412,447,651
948,938,643

38. Calculating change in budget priority
It is important to determine the budget growth and changes
in budget priorities as compared to the previous years. This is
to understand whether the allocated budget is increasing or
decreasing in line with policy priorities.
The growth rate describes how much the size of an
allocation changes from one year to the next. It is expressed
as a percentage of the original allocation and is called the
annual growth rate or year to year change.
The following formula is used to calculate Growth Rate:
Real Growth rate % =
(Year 2 – Year 1)
Year 1
x 100

39. Year
Nominal
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
60,549,835,647
470,009,971,781
894,214,805,186
1,064,801,253,520
976,254,543,375
1,790,848,344,588
1,799,938,243,138
1,876,302,363,351
2,266,394,423,477
2,492,076,718,937
2,870,510,042,679
4,608,616,278,213
4,226,191,559,259
4,749,100,821,170
4,987,220,425,601
%
Real
%
676.24
90.25
19.08
-8.32
83.44
0.51
4.24
20.79
9.96
15.19
60.55
-8.30
12.3
5.01
81,824,102,226
470,009,971,781
931,473,755,402
925,914,133,496
762,698,862,012
1,155,386,028,767
972,939,590,885
845,181,244,753
981,123,127,046
973,467,468,335
1,171,636,752,114
1,719,632,939,632
1,372,140,116,643
1,380,552,564,294
1,381,501,502,937
474.42
98.18
-0.60
-17.63
51.49
-15.79
-13.13
16.08
-0.78
20.36
46.77
-20.21
0.61
0.07
The figure above indicates that, although the budget seems to have increased in
nominal terms, when considered in real terms, it transpires that the budget has
actually increased by lesser percentages. For instance, in 2010, an increase of
60.55% in Nominal term shows a 46.77% in Real term.

40. 1999
2000
2001
2013
To calculate the Annual
Growth Rate of Nigeria
Budget over a period

41. Year
Real
%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
81,824,102,226
470,009,971,781
931,473,755,402
925,914,133,496
762,698,862,012
1,155,386,028,767
972,939,590,885
845,181,244,753
981,123,127,046
973,467,468,335
1,171,636,752,114
1,719,632,939,632
1,372,140,116,643
1,380,552,564,294
1,381,501,502,937
474.42
98.18
-0.60
-17.63
51.49
-15.79
-13.13
16.08
-0.78
20.36
46.77
-20.21
0.61
0.07
Annual average real growth
rate over the medium term:
1999 to 2013 = 14years
639.84 45.70
=
14
639.84
The average medium term growth rate from 1999 to 2013
has been approximately 46%.

42. Data source:
- A Budget Guide for Civil Society Organisations Working in Education
- Budget analysis manual (www.parliament.gov.za)
- Nigeria Budget office (www.budgetoffice.gov.ng)
Analysis by: Wale Micaiah (M.Sc., CISM, CCNP-Sec, MCSA)
e: walegate@yahoo.com
m: 08078001800
b: walemicaiah.blog.com
w. www.statisense.com
Freely share, freely use and freely acknowledge the source – © Wale Micaiah