The 2016 Nigerian health sector budget totaled 6.06 trillion naira, with debt services receiving the largest allocation of 24.34% and capital expenditures receiving 26.2%. However, budget assumptions of oil production of 2.2 million barrels per day and an oil price of $38 were not met, with actual production being 1.93 million barrels and the price $42.9. As a result of shortfalls, only 40% of capital expenditures were released. While the health budget was 250 billion naira or 4% of the national budget, only 64% of the capital health budget was released. Past budget implementation reports show an average of only 65.72% implementation. Audits also found issues with

1. StatiSense
AN OVERVIEW OF 2016
HEALTH SECTOR
BUDGET PERFORMANCE

2. NO. BUDGET COMPONENTS AMOUNT PERCENTAGE
1 Debt Services 1,475,320,000,000 24.34%
2 Statutory Transfer 351,370,000,000 5.80%
3 Recurrent Expenditures 2,646,389,236,196 43.66%
4 Capital Expenditures 1,587,598,122,031 26.20%
TOTAL BUDGET 6,060,677,358,227
2 0 1 6 A P P R O P R I A T E D B U D G E T

3. NO. ITEM PROJECTION ACTUAL
1 Average Oil Production (mbpd) 2.2 1.93
2 Average Oil Price Benchmark ($) 38 42.9
3 Non-Oil Revenue Baseline
Customs Collections, Company Income Tax,
Value Added Tax, FGN Independent Revenue
4 Exchange Rate ($) 197 305
5 Inflation (%) 9.81 18.39
We Spend more Dollar than we EARN
2 0 1 6 B U D G E T A S S U M P T I O N S
August 2016

4. 2016 BUDGET ASSUMPTIONS: OIL PRODUCTION
2,241,692
2,181,416
2,082,924
2,149,252
2,041,405
1,954,875 1,985,317
1,688,380
1,768,844
1,654,366
1,502,083
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2,200,000
2,400,000
Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16
Projected: Average Oil Production (mbpd) = 2.2
Actual: Average Oil Production (mbpd) = 1.93
Oil Production (mbpd)
Source: NNPC

5. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
4-Jan-16 4-Feb-16 4-Mar-16 4-Apr-16 4-May-16 4-Jun-16 4-Jul-16 4-Aug-16 4-Sep-16 4-Oct-16 4-Nov-16 4-Dec-16
Projected: Average Oil Price Benchmark ($) = 38
Actual: Average Oil Price Benchmark ($) = 42.9
2016 BUDGET ASSUMPTIONS: OIL PRICE
Oil Price Benchmark ($)
Source: http://www.investing.com

6. B U D G E T S H O R T F A L L S
NO. ITEM PROJECTION ACTUAL
1 Average Oil Production (mbpd) 2.2 1.93
2 Average Oil Price Benchmark ($) 38 42.9
3 Non-Oil Revenue Baseline
Customs Collections, Company Income Tax, Value Added
Tax, FGN Independent Revenue
4 Exchange Rate ($) 197 305
5 Inflation (%) 9.81 18.39
Projected
Actual
Oil (mbpd) Oil Price ($)
2.2
1.93
38
42.9
$83.6m
$82.8m
Without considering other unmet projections, clearly there is
shortfall in Nigeria’s financial projection, which automatically
leads to the variableness in funding the 2016 Budget!

7. CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
1,587,598,122,031
RELEASED
635,770,642,465
RELEASEDHEALTH (CAPITAL)
28,650,342,987
RELEASED
18,472,539,524
% RELEASED
40%
%
64%
October 21, 2016
COMPONENT TOTAL %
Recurrent Expenditures 221,412,548,087 89%
Capital Expenditures 28,650,342,987 11%
Total Budget 250,062,891,075
HEALTH
BUDGET
4%
of National
Budget
2 0 1 6 C A P I TA L B U D G E T R E L E A S E S
Source: Budget Office

8. HEALTH
AGENCY BUDGETED RELEASED %
National Primary Health Care Development 15,694,635,719 12,673,590,715 80.75%
Federal Medical Centre, Nasarawa State 131,452,712 105,458,068 80.23%
Federal Ministry of Health - Hqtrs 5,214,252,356 2,506,093,423 48.06%
Other Agencies 80,957,470 33,908,482 41.88
What about
BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION?
2 0 1 6 C A P I TA L B U D G E T R E L E A S E S

9. YEAR
NATIONAL
(Trillion)
HEALTH
(Billion)
CAPITAL
(Billion)
IMPLEMENTED
(Billion)
IMPLEMENTED
%
2015 4,493.36 259.75 22.68 16.45 72.52%
2014 4,695.19 264.46 49.52 20.47 41.34%
2013 4,987.22 282.50 60.05 34.78 57.93%
2012 4,749.10 282.77 60.92 45.00 73.87%
2011 4,484.74 257.87 38.79 32.17 82.93%
PAST BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORTS
Average of 65.72% Implementation over the last 5 years
Source: Budget Office

10. NATIONAL BUDGET HEALTH BUDGET CAPITAL BUDGET IMPLEMENTED
4,493,363,957,158 259,751,742,847 22,676,000,000 16,445,053,729
5.78% 8.73% 72.52%
8%
N259.75bn
N16.45bn
N6.23bn
Health Budget
Health Capital
Budget
Implemented Budget
Unimplemented
N22.68bn
5.78%
8.73%
72.52%
27.45%
National Budget
2015 BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORTS

11. Budget
Enactment
Budget
Implementation
Budget
Monitoring
& Auditing
Executive & Legislature Executive & Legislature Executive & Legislature
2014
Audit
Report
 Drugs were haphazardly arranged in the store,
instead of arranging them according to each
programme.
 Most of the drugs like malaria; Narcotics,
Mosquito nets, etc. were left in the store
undistributed even though they were almost at
their expiring dates.
“The Permanent Secretary failed to respond
to my audit observations sent to him”
– Auditor-General of the Federation
MINISTRY OF HEALTH AUDIT REPORTS

12. 2
Quarterly Budget Releases and project by
project Implementation Reports;
3
Adopt conservative assumptions in
drafting the MTEF & FSP document;
4 Access and use the Health Ministry Audit
Reports for oversight functions.
1
Improved budgetary allocation to Health,
especially to Capital Expenditures;
I N C O N C L U S I O N …

13. Analyst: Wale Micaiah
e: walegate@yahoo.com
m: 08078001800
w: www.statisense.com
Freely share, freely use and
freely acknowledge the
source – © Wale Micaiah