The Saturday Economist, Latest GDP updates suggest UK will grow by 3% this year. Service sector, construction and investment will boost output. Interest rates will rise in Q4 2015 as US paves the way ...

1. The Saturday Economist
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 1
The Saturday Economist
UK Economic Outlook
Q2 2015 (April update)
Leisure and Construction driving
recovery … now with investment boost

2. The Saturday Economist
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 2
The UK recovery continues. We expect growth of
3.0% in 2015 … slowing to 2.9% in 2016.
In this April economics update we forecast world growth of 2.9% in 2015 increasing to 3.1% in 2016. UK Inflation will
average just 0.5%, CPI basis, over the balance of the year. Unemployment will continue to fall, government borrowing
will also fall. The service sector will lead the recovery as manufacturing and construction output also rise.
We are forecasting a modest increase in manufacturing of around 2.5% with a 5.5% increase in construction activity as
the strong housing market recovery continues. The trade figures will continue to disappoint, offset by a potential £4
billion oil dividend, as a result of the oil price collapse. The challenge to the current account following the drop in
overseas investment income continues and will present a significant problem to the outlook for sterling over the
medium term. For the moment, the Dollar and the Swiss Franc remain the traders favourites with the Euro under
pressure as the QE placebo unwinds slowly across Euro land.
The collapse in oil prices has significantly changed the world
outlook for growth and inflation over 2015. Growth estimates
for oil importers have been revised upwards and the fortunes of
oil exporters have been revised down as a result.
The inflation outlook is much more benign with fears of
deflation continuing to overhang the recovery in Europe.
In the UK we expect the economy to grow by 3.0% in 2015
following growth of 2.8% last year. In the US the recovery
continues with growth of 3.1% expected in the year ahead.
We expect base rates to rise in 2015 Q3 …

3. The Saturday Economist
Contents
Chapter 1 The World Economy page 4
Chapter 2 World Trade and Oil Prices page 6
Chapter 3 UK Economics Growth in UK GDP (O) Output page 7
Chapter 4 UK Economics Growth in UK GDP (E) Expenditure chained page 9
Chapter 5 UK Economics Growth - Investment - mind the gap? page 11
Chapter 6 UK trade in goods and services page 13
Chapter 7 Labour market trends page 14
Chapter 8 Government Borrowing page 15
Chapter 9 Inflation Outlook page 16
Chapter 10 Interest Rates - base rates and gilt yields page 17
Appendices page 18
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 3

4. The Saturday Economist
Chapter 1 World Economy
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 4
Chart 1.1 : World GDP growth
%
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
• The world economy is expected to have
grown by 2.6% in 2014. We forecast growth
of 2.9% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016.
• Recovery in the USA and UK, will continue.
We expect growth of 3.1% in US in 2015
slowing to 3.0% in 2016.
• Slower growth is expected in the oil
producing economies of OPEC, Russia and
Venezuela. The setback in Russia will be a
particular problem with some analysts
expecting the economy to shrink by -4%.
• On a regional basis, growth in Sub Saharan
Africa and the Asia Pacific region will
continue at around 4.5%.
• Recovery in North America is expected to
accelerate as US growth impacts on Mexico.
In Canada, growth will moderate slightly as
oil prices impact on oil output.
• In South America, we expect growth of just
1.6% with continuing problems in Venezuela,
and Argentina. Slow growth in Brazil will
impact on the regional performance.
• In Eastern Europe problems in Russia and the
Ukraine, will weigh on the growth prospects
for the region. Growth of just 0.2% is
expected this year, rising to 1.8% in 2016.
• Growth in Western Europe will improve led by
a recovery in Germany. We expect growth of
1.5% in 2015, increasing from 1.2% in 2014.
• In the Eurozone, we expect growth of 1.2%
up from 0.8% in 2014. We do not expect
much from any early QE expansion.
• World trade is expected to grow by 3.5% in
2014 and 3.8% in 2016.
• World prices for energy, particularly oil,
primary metals, food and manufactures will
remain subdued.
• We expect oil prices to rally to $75 per barrel
Brent Crude basis by the final quarter of
2015. cf a forecast average - $60 in Q1 2015.
• Overall the recovery in the world economy
will continue, with limited acceleration in
price levels through this year.
Chart 1.2: World Trade growth
%
-16.0
-12.0
-8.0
-4.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
… the recovery continues.

5. The Saturday Economist
The estimates are produced with heavy reliance on world trade forecasts from the European Union, the IMF, the OECD, the World Bank and the NIESR world
model. Additional data is derived from the USA Bureau of Economic Affairs. World trade data is developed from the CPB World Trade Monitor, produced by
the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. We also utilise the Consensus Economics data : Consensus Forecasts, Asia Pacific, Latin
America and Eastern Europe. The Top Ten economies in the world account for approximately two thirds of global GDP.
Table 1 World Economy GDP Growth %
Top Ten Markets 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
United States 2.5 1.8 2.8 2.2 2.5 3.1 3.0
China 10.4 9.4 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2
Japan 4.7 -0.4 1.4 1.6 0.3 1.3 1.5
Germany 4.0 3.3 0.7 0.4 1.5 1.6 1.8
France 1.6 2.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.5
Brazil 7.5 2.7 1.0 2.5 0.1 0.2 1.0
United Kingdom 1.6 1.2 0.7 1.7 2.8 3.0 2.8
Italy 1.7 0.6 -2.4 -1.8 -0.4 0.5 1.1
Russia 4.5 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -4.1 0.5
India 7.5 6.7 4.5 4.7 5.6 6.4 6.6
World GDP 4.5 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0
World Trade % 14.6 6.0 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 5

6. The Saturday Economist
Chapter 2 World Trade and Oil Prices …
… no worries about inflation.
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 6
Chart 2.3 :World Commodity Prices
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 2.1 : Oil Prices $ per barrel
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
• Oil price Brent Crude basis averaged $99 per
barrel in 2014, falling to $50 in the final
quarter of the year.
• We expect oil prices to remain around $55 in
the first quarter of 2015 rising to $85 (Brent
Crude basis) by the end of the year.
• World trade prices fell by -1.0% in 2013 and
by an estimated -1.6 % in 2014.
• We expect world trade prices to remain under
pressure falling by a further -1.5% in 2015
recovering to 0.5% growth in 2016.
• We believe basic metal prices including,
copper, zinc, lead, aluminium and iron
have reached a basic floor level which
will lead to a moderate recovery by 2016.
• Precious metals, gold, silver and
p l a t i n u m h a v e d e m o n s t r a t e d
consolidation with gold trading at around
$1,200 in January 2015.
• World commodity prices, excluding fuel (chart
2.3) have been extremely volatile increasing
by over 25% in 2006 and 2010.
• In 2013, commodity prices fell by 4.7% with a
further fall of 2.2% 2014. We expect prices to
stabilise in 2015 with a strong rally in 2016.
• Trends in world trade, world trade prices and
commodity prices continue to suggest a
modest world recovery, derived of growth in
Europe, with no inflationary pressure evident.
Chart 2.2 : World Trade Prices
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

7. The Saturday Economist
Chapter 3 Growth in UK GDP (O) Output
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 7
• We model UK GDP growth in the first
instance using our pragmatic GDP (O) model.
On this basis we employ more conventional
business modelling techniques including,
ARIMA, exponential smoothing, pattern
recognition and econometrics.
• We also utilise the Manchester Index® as part
of our “nowcasting” model, producing a short
term steer on directions within the UK and
Greater Manchester economy.
• Following growth of 1.7% in 2013 and growth
of 2.8% in 2014, we now expect growth of
3.0% in 2015, slowing to 2.9% in 2016.
• The service sector will continue to underpin
growth in the economy. Following growth of
3.0% in 2014, we expect service sector
growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016.
• Construction output, driven by developments
in housing and infrastructure, is expected to
increase by 5.5% in 2015 and 5.2% in 2016,
following revised growth of 7.5% in 2014.
• Manufacturing output remains almost 5%
below the peaks registered in 2008 prior to
recession.
• Following an increase in manufacturing
output of 3.0% in 2014, we expect growth of
2.5% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016.
• Within the service sector, the leisure sector is
expected to show strong growth along with a
strong performance in business services,
transport and finance.
• Overall, the UK will experience strong growth
in output over the next two years. [We estimate
the long term trend rate of growth to be 2.7%
following latest data revisions. We do not share
concerns about UK productivity.]
• The service sector will continue to underpin
growth in the UK assisted by developments in
manufacturing and construction. The surge in
housing building activity is expected to
continue into the year.
Chart 3.1 : UK GDP growth %
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 3.2 : Service Sector %
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
… our overall forecast for growth in 2015 is 3.0%.

8. The Saturday Economist
Full details and charts of the GDP(O) forecasts are available in the appendix data
The forecast is broadly consistent with the Quarterly National Accounts Q4 2014 released by the ONS on the 31st March 2015.
Table 3 UK GDP (O) Growth %
Key Sectors 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Agriculture … -0.7 8.5 -4.6 -3.9 2.1 3.0 3.0
Extractives -2.4 -14.2 -10.8 -2.5 -0.6 -4.5 -3.0
Manufacturing 4.2 1.8 -1.3 -0.7 3.0 2.5 2.5
Electricity, Gas 4.0 -6.2 -0.8 0.3 -5.5 2.6 2.5
Water, Sewage -1.3 5.3 -0.9 3.3 0.2 1.4 1.5
Total Production 2.9 -0.8 -2.7 -0.5 1.6 1.4 1.6
Construction 8.3 2.1 -7.5 1.4 7.5 5.5 5.2
Service Sector
Leisure 1.0 1.9 1.5 3.5 4.8 3.9 3.7
Transport 3.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 2.5 4.0 3.5
Business et al 0.4 3.2 3.0 2.5 3.8 4.0 3.8
Education, Hth 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.3 1.1 1.0 1.1
Total Services 0.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.1 3.0
Total GDP (O) 1.6 1.2 0.7 1.7 2.8 3.0 2.9
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 8

9. The Saturday Economist
Chapter 4 Growth in UK GDP (E) - Expenditure chained measure
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 9
• We continue to offer little hope for the
rebalancing agenda in our forecasts for
growth in expenditure.
• Household expenditure increased by 2.5% in
2014. We expect growth of 2.6% in 2015 and
2.5% in 2016 as real income growth impacts.
• Government expenditure increased by 1.7%
in 2014. Government expenditure is expected
to increase by 2.0% in 2015, slowing to 1.8%
in 2016.
• Investment increased by 7.8% in 2014. We
expect growth of 5.0% in 2015 and 5.2% in
2016.
• Domestic expenditure increased by 3.3% in
2014 with a significant contribution from
inventory build. We expect growth of 2.6% in
2015 and 2.8% in 2016.
• Net trade will continue to have a negative
impact on growth, with exports increasing at
a slightly slower rate than imports.
• We expect exports to increase by 2.5% in
2015 and 2.7% in 2016 following growth of
just 0.6% in 2014..
• Imports increased by 2.2% in 2014. We
expect growth of 2.6% in 2015 increasing to
2.8% in the following year.
• Our GDP Expenditure model is consistent and
balanced with the ONS data. We forecast
GDP(E) growth of 2.9% in 2015 and 2.9% in
2015.
• The trade deficit will continue to be have a
negative impact on UK GDP but of itself will
not be a constraint to growth.
• We continue to caution on the overall current
account deficit. In the final quarter of 2014 the
deficit averaged 6.0% of GDP.
• *We estimate a 10% fall in the oil price is worth
some £1 billion to the UK trade account. The UK
may experience a £5 billion boost to net trade as a
result of the oil price.
Chart 4.1 : Households %
-4.0
-2.4
-0.8
0.8
2.4
4.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 4.2 : Investment %
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
… our investment outlook has improved slightly.

10. The Saturday Economist
Table 4 UK GDP (E) Expenditure Chained Measure %
Expenditure 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Households 0.5 -0.1 1.5 1.7 2.5 2.6 2.5
NPIs -1.4 3.7 -6.2 0.7 0.9 2.2 2.0
Government 0.0 0.0 2.3 -0.3 1.7 2.0 1.8
Investment 5.9 2.3 0.7 3.4 7.8 5.0 5.2
Inventories - - - - - - -
Domestic Exp 2.7 0.3 1.4 1.8 3.3 2.6 2.8
Total Exports 6.2 -1.2 7.6 1.5 0.6 2.5 2.7
Gross Final Exp 3.4 0.0 2.8 1.7 2.7 2.6 2.8
Total Imports 8.7 -7.1 12.1 1.4 2.2 2.6 2.8
GDP 1.9 1.6 0.7 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.9
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 10
Chart 4.4 : Exports %
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Chart 4.5 : Imports %
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Chart 4.3 : Domestic Expenditure %
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

11. The Saturday Economist
Chapter 5 UK Economics Growth - Investment - QES data Q4!
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 11
• The basis and methodology for the
calculation of investment has been revised.
• Investment grew by 7.8% in 2014. We
forecast growth of 5.0% in 2015, and 5.2% in
2016.
• According to survey data, firms are more
confident about turnover and profits.
• This provides more confidence about the
likely path of demand and ROI over the short
term. Charts 5.1 and charts 5.2.
• Capacity - capacity utilisation levels are
returning to the levels last seen prior to the
recession in 2008. Charts 5.3.
• Investment intentions have increased
significantly in the latest survey data,
particularly in the manufacturing sector 5.4.
• We model investment as a function of capacity
utilisation and investment intentions with a lag of 4
and 2 quarters respectively.
Chart 5.1 Manufacturers Confidence
-70
-52.5
-35
-17.5
0
17.5
35
52.5
70
2005 2008 2011 2014
Turnover Profits
Chart 5.2 Service Sector Confidence
-35
-17.5
0
17.5
35
52.5
70
2005 2008 2011 2014
Turnover Profits
Chart 5.3 Capacity Utilisation
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
2005 2008 2011 2014
Service Sector Manufacturing
Chart 5.4 Investment Intentions
-30
-22.5
-15
-7.5
0
7.5
15
22.5
30
2005 2008 2011 2014
Service Sector Manufacturing
Chart Data from Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey Q1 2015.
The Manchester Index™ - nowcasting the UK economy.

12. The Saturday Economist
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 12
Chapter 6 - UK trade in goods and services
… heading in the wrong direction.

13. The Saturday Economist
Chapter 6 UK Trade in goods and services
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 13
Chart 6.1 : Trade in Goods
-150.0
-125.0
-100.0
-75.0
-50.0
-25.0
0.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 6.2 : Trade in Services
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 6.3 : Trade in Goods & Services
-50.0
-41.7
-33.3
-25.0
-16.7
-8.3
0.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Balance Trade in Goods and Services £ billion
• We model exports as a function of world
trade and relative prices. A model in which
we find the demand terms dominant.
• We model imports as a function of domestic
demand, or total final expenditure and a
relative price term. Here the demand term is
dominant with relative price inelasticity.
There is little or no substitution effect.
• The trade in goods deficit increased to
£112.6 billion in 2013 and £119.6 in 2014
• We forecast the deficit to rise to £120.2
billion in 2015 and £130 billion 2016.
• The trade in services surplus was £78.9
billion in 2013, an increase of 6% on the
prior year level.
• The trade in services surplus increased to
£87.3 billion in 2014. We forecast £89.5
billion in 2015 and £91.7 billion in 2016
• The surplus in services will continue to
offset the structural trade deficit in goods.
• We expect the oil dividend to improve the
deficit by around £4 billion in 2015.
• The trade in goods and services deficit
slowed to £32.3 billion in 2014 down from
£33.7 billion in the prior year.
• The central forecast is for the overall deficit
to fall to £30.6 billion in 2015 rising to £38.8
billion in 2016.
• The ongoing deficit, measured at 2% of
GDP will not of itself, create a problem for
sterling. The current account deficit at
around 6% of GDP will however, present a
challenge to sterling and growth eventually.
… the trade deficit will continue to disappoint.

14. The Saturday Economist
Chapter 7 Labour Market Trends
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 14
Chart 7.1 : Claimant Count 000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 7.2 : LFS Count 000
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 7.3 : LFS Rate %
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
• The claimant count has fallen significantly
over the last twelve months as the economy
grew by 1.7% (2013) and 2.6% in 2014.
• The reduction was 370,000 through the year,
2014 ahead of most estimates and forecasts.
• Over the last three months to December
2014, the claimant count has fallen by 84,000
to a level of 868,000.
• We forecast a further fall in the claimant
count rate from an average 1.032 million in
2014 to 699,00 in 2015.
• The LFS count unemployment in the final
quarter of 2014 is forecast to be around 1.93
million.
• This is a reduction of over 400,00 over the
last twelve months.
• We expect levels to fall to 1.8 million by the
final quarter of 2015 and at least 1.6 million
by the final quarter of 2016.
• We expect the unemployment rate (LFS
basis) to fall from 5.8% at the end of 2014 to
4.8% by the end of 2015 and 4.4% by the
end of 2016. .
• The unemployment rate is will average 6.3%
in 2014, 5.5% in 2015 and 5.0% in 2016.
• The average rate, in the precession period
was just 5.5%.
• On current trends our forecasts suggests
“spare capacity” may be exhausted by the
second quarter of 2015 (LFS basis).
• The claimant count data however, suggests
the average unemployment rate of 3% in the
period 2005 - 2008 has already been
achieved. This will place additional pressure
on the pay round and earnings into 2015.

15. The Saturday Economist
Chapter 8 Government Borrowing
£ Billion 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Borrowing 153.0 134.0 112.8 119.4 97.3 90.2 75.3 39.4 12.8 -5.2 -7.0
Debt 956.4 1,101.1 1,191.0 1,299.0 1,402.1 1,479 1,533 1,580 1,606 1,617 1,627.0
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 15
Chart 8.1 : Borrowing £ billion
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2009/10 2012/13 2015/16 2018/19
• Government borrowing in the twelve months
to March 2014 is estimated to be £97.3
billion compared to £119.4 billion in the prior
fiscal year.
• Following the release of the February 2015
data, the government is on track to meet the
OBR target of £90.2 in financial year 2014/5.
• Total debt, is forecast to be just under
£1.500 trillion at the end of the current
financial year.
• Rising to £1.580trillion at the end of
2016/17…
• … peaking at £1.627 trillion at the end of the
current forecast cycle 2019/20.
• As a % of GDP debt is forecast to be 81.6%
at the end of the current year 2014/15
• Falling to 80.7% in 2015/16, 79.2% in
2016/17 and 76.7% in 2017/18.
• Information derived from OBR Economic and
Fiscal Outlook March 2015. ONS data : Public
Sector Finances February 2015, released 20th
March 2015.
Chart 8.2 : Total Debt £ billion
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
2009/10 2012/13 2015/16 2018/19
Chart 8.3 : Total Debt % GDP
40
50
60
70
80
90
2009/10 2012/13 2015/16 2018/19

16. The Saturday Economist
Chapter 9 Inflation Outlook
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 16
Chart 9.1 : CPI Inflation
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 9.2 : Manufacturing Prices (O)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 9.3 : Manufacturing Prices (I)
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 9.4 : Earnings
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 9.5 : Money Supply Narrow
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Chart 9.6 : Money Supply M4
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
We expect CPI inflation to average
0.5% in 2015 rising to 2.2% in 2016 …
Manufacturing prices - 0.2% in 2014,
falling by -0.5% in 2015 then up 2.8%.
Input prices fell by -6.6% 2014, we
forecast -9.3% in 2015 and +8.4%
Earnings are expected to average
1.4% in 2014 rising to 2.8% in 2015
and 3.5% in 2016.
Narrow money growth, notes and
coins increased by 4.3% in 2014. We
expect growth of 5.0% in 2015
slowing to 4.6% in 2016.
Broad money is expected to have
increased by 3.7% in 2014, rising to
4.0% in 2015 and 4.5% in 2016.

17. The Saturday Economist
Chapter 10 Interest rates - base rates and gilt yields
Table 10 - Base rates and Gilt Yields
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Base 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50
Gilts 2.2 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 17
We expect UK base rates to remain on hold through the
first half of 2015 there after rising to 1% by the end of the
year and 2% by the end of 2016.
Gilt yields have rallied from the sub 2% lows in 2013. We
expect yields to return to fair value 4.5% within the forecast
period by the end of 2017.
Chart 10.2 10 year Gilt Rates
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Chart 10.1 UK Base Rates
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HIgher event Base Case

18. The Saturday Economist
Appendix 1 Gross domestic product : expenditure at current market prices : ONS C1
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 18

19. The Saturday Economist
Appendix 2 Gross domestic product : chained volume measure : ONS C2
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 19

20. The Saturday Economist
Appendix 3 Gross domestic product : chained volume measure : ONS B1
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 20

21. The Saturday Economist
Appendix 4 Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, Inflation and Labour Market Data
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 21

22. The Saturday Economist
Appendix 5 Economic Forecast Overview
Outturn
2010
Outturn
2011
Outturn
2012
Outturn
2013
Outurn
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
GDP Real Growth % 1.6 1.2 0.3 1.7 2.8 3.0 2.9
GDP Levels (2011 = 100) 98.3 100.0 100.7 102.2 105.1 108.2 111.4
GDP(E) at market prices £Bill 1,558.4 1,617.7 1,655.4 1,713.1 1,791.5 1,878.7 1,967.8
Household Consumption 0.5 -0.1 1.5 1.7 2.5 2.6 2.5
Business Investment 5.9 2.3 0.7 3.4 7.8 5.0 5.2
Government Consumption 0.0 0.0 2.3 -0.3 1.7 2.0 1.8
Domestic Expenditure 2.7 0.3 1.4 1.8 3.3 2.6 2.8
Exports 6.2 -1.2 7.6 1.5 0.6 2.5 2.7
Imports 8.7 -7.1 12.1 1.4 2.2 2.6 2.5
Net Trade % GDP current -2.4 -1.5 -2.1 -2.0 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1
Inflation
CPI 3.3 4.5 2.9 2.6 1.5 0.5 2.2
Labour Market
Employment Millions 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.6 31.1 31.5
Average Earnings 2.4 2.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.3 2.8
LFS unemployment rate 7.9 8.1 7.9 7.6 6.3 5.7 5.1
Claimant Count Millions 1.50 1.53 1.59 1.42 1.03 0.70 -
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 22
The forecast is broadly consistent with the Quarterly National Accounts Q4 2014 released by the ONS on the 31st March 2015.

23. The Saturday Economist
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 23
About the Author
John Ashcroft is author of the weekly Saturday Economist and Chief
Economist for Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce. He is Chief
Executive of pro.manchester, a member of the AGMA Business Leadership
Council, the Council of the GM Chamber of Commerce and a visiting
professor at Manchester Metropolitan University.
Educated at the London School of Economics, with a PhD in economics, his
specialist subjects include economics, corporate strategy, business modelling
and social media. Economics specialisms include the UK balance of
payments, international trade, interest rates and exchange rates modelling.
John Ashcroft (PhD) BSc.(Econ) FRSA, CBIM
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The forecast is broadly consistent with the Quarterly National Accounts Q4
2014 released by the ONS on the 31st March 2015.
The Saturday Economist
Where economics means
business and analysis makes
sense …

24. The Saturday Economist
UK Economic Outlook April 2015 Page 24