Is the tide rising?
The euro area is turning the corner from recession to recovery. Growth is projected to strengthen to 1 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015.
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Ivo Pezzuto - FEDERAL RESERVE'S RATE RISE. COMING SOON? The Global Analyst Se...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
This article, written on August 31st, 2015 by Prof. Ivo Pezzuto, predicts that mostly likely the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at the December 16th-17th FOMC meeting, given the current global economic turbulence and outlook, and that a rate rise will be more likely at the end of 2015 or in early 2016 if the US economy will continue to improve and in the absence of systemic crises.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
This monthly briefing highlights that emerging economies face renewed financial turbulence, that US economy registered robust GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 and that the last quarter of 2013 revealed a heterogeneous economic performance in the developing world.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
Ivo Pezzuto - FEDERAL RESERVE'S RATE RISE. COMING SOON? The Global Analyst Se...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
This article, written on August 31st, 2015 by Prof. Ivo Pezzuto, predicts that mostly likely the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at the December 16th-17th FOMC meeting, given the current global economic turbulence and outlook, and that a rate rise will be more likely at the end of 2015 or in early 2016 if the US economy will continue to improve and in the absence of systemic crises.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
This monthly briefing highlights that emerging economies face renewed financial turbulence, that US economy registered robust GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 and that the last quarter of 2013 revealed a heterogeneous economic performance in the developing world.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
The recent correction in global financial markets has left developed market equities about 10% cheaper and emerging market equities 25% cheaper, removing a lot of the valuation froth that was evident.
Commenting in Novare Investments’ economic report for the third quarter of 2015, Francois van der Merwe, Head of Macro Research, said: “We expect global equities to be supported by continued accommodative monetary policies, soft inflation and a moderate global economic recovery.
Stock market trading is risky and challenging for stock market traders. Trading will be easy if you know about the mistakes. http://www.epic-research.co/
Global economic activity is projected to slowly gain momentum, but growth will continue
to be below potential and employment gains will remain weak, says the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2013 mid-year update, launched on 23 May 2013.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/index.shtml
If you are beginner in the International Market at SapForex24 is introducing the best Free Forex Signals and for your good position in Economic World.
Read More:- http://www.sapforex24.com/
Mr. William McConnell evaluates the 2016 economic conditions, concluding that real growth is at a stall despite full employment. This white paper is part of a three part series. William McConnell will publish a white paper focused on the state of the construction industry next month, followed by the state of the surety industry in July, 2016.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
This forecast was done in a highly volatile environment and under assumptions that may not turn out to be true. We assume most of the economic activity restrictions to be lifted by the end of the second quarter. We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level. We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
The recent correction in global financial markets has left developed market equities about 10% cheaper and emerging market equities 25% cheaper, removing a lot of the valuation froth that was evident.
Commenting in Novare Investments’ economic report for the third quarter of 2015, Francois van der Merwe, Head of Macro Research, said: “We expect global equities to be supported by continued accommodative monetary policies, soft inflation and a moderate global economic recovery.
Stock market trading is risky and challenging for stock market traders. Trading will be easy if you know about the mistakes. http://www.epic-research.co/
Global economic activity is projected to slowly gain momentum, but growth will continue
to be below potential and employment gains will remain weak, says the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2013 mid-year update, launched on 23 May 2013.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/index.shtml
If you are beginner in the International Market at SapForex24 is introducing the best Free Forex Signals and for your good position in Economic World.
Read More:- http://www.sapforex24.com/
Mr. William McConnell evaluates the 2016 economic conditions, concluding that real growth is at a stall despite full employment. This white paper is part of a three part series. William McConnell will publish a white paper focused on the state of the construction industry next month, followed by the state of the surety industry in July, 2016.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
This forecast was done in a highly volatile environment and under assumptions that may not turn out to be true. We assume most of the economic activity restrictions to be lifted by the end of the second quarter. We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level. We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
What is the outlook for the global economy in 2014 and beyond? Get the latest figures and updates on current trends in the first chapter of the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2014: The global economic outlook released on 18 December 2013.
For more information: http://bit.ly/WESP
Five years after the onset of the global financial crisis the world economy remains in a state of disarray. Strong expansionary monetary policies in the major developed economies have not succeeded in fostering credit creation and strengthening aggregate demand. Fiscal austerity and wage compression in many developed countries are further darkening the outlook, not only for the short term, but also for the medium term. The burden of adjustment of the global imbalances that contributed to the outbreak of the financial crisis remains with the deficit countries, thus strengthening deflationary forces in the world economy. The dominance of finance over real economic activities persists, and may even have increased further. Yet financial reforms at the national level have been timid at best, advancing very slowly, if at all. In 2008 and 2009, policymakers of several economically powerful countries had called for urgent reforms of the international monetary and financial system. However, since then, the momentum in pushing for reform has all but disappeared from the international agenda. Consequently, the outlook for the world economy and for the global environment for development continues to be highly uncertain. Some developing and transition economies have been able to mitigate the impact of the financial and economic crises in the developed countries by means of expansionary macroeconomic policies. But with the effects of such a response petering out and the external economic environment showing few signs of improvement, these economies are struggling to regain their growth momentum. Prior to the Great Recession, exports from developing and transition economies grew rapidly owing to buoyant consumer demand in the developed countries, mainly the United States.
OVERVIEW Five years after the onset of the global financial crisis the world economy remains in a state of disarray. Strong expansionary monetary policies in the major developed economies have not succeeded in fostering credit creation and strengthening aggregate demand. Fiscal austerity and wage compression in many developed countries are further darkening the outlook, not only for the short term, but also for the medium term. The burden of adjustment of the global imbalances that contributed to the outbreak of the financial crisis remains with the deficit countries, thus strengthening deflationary forces in the world economy. The dominance of finance over real economic activities persists, and may even have increased further. Yet financial reforms at the national level have been timid at best, advancing very slowly, if at all. In 2008 and 2009, policymakers of several economically powerful countries had called for urgent reforms of the international monetary and financial system. However, since then, the momentum in pushing for reform has all but disappeared from the international agenda. Consequently, the outlook for the world economy and for the global environment for development continues to be highly uncertain. Some developing and transition economies have been able to mitigate the impact of the financial and economic crises in the developed countries by means of expansionary macroeconomic policies. But with the effects of such a response petering out and the external economic environment showing few signs of improvement, these economies are struggling to regain their growth momentum. Prior to the Great Recession, exports from developing and transition economies grew rapidly owing to buoyant consumer demand in the developed countries, mainly the United States.
De acuerdo con el último informe difundido por Crédito y Caución, las insolvencias de muchas de las economías europeas se mantendrán muy por encima de los niveles de 2007 en 2014 y 2015.
El panorama económico mundial se ha deteriorado en los últimos seis meses. El ritmo de crecimiento en la zona euro y China ha sido más débil de lo esperado y la intensificación de la crisis geopolíticas referentes a Rusia y al Estado Islámico en Oriente Medio han minado la confianza internacional.
The latest quarterly strategic report that gives a summary of top market trends impacting major spend categories, and gives actionable insights to drive strategic value for your organization.
The latest quarterly strategic report that gives a summary of top market trends impacting major spend categories, and gives actionable insights to drive strategic value for your organization.
Global economies are witnessing two-speed recovery with the US economy showing firm signs of recovery, while growth in Euro Area still languishing in sub-optimal territory. Among the Asian economies, growth in Japan and China too continues to remain tepid. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we analyze that the economic condition in the present scenario is in greater disarray than it was during the breakout of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when both government as well as the RBI were quick to respond to the challenges and brought the economy back to recovery path within no time. In Corporate Performance, we examine the sectoral performance in the last fiscal in order to find the sectors which were badly hit in the wake of the current bout of economic crisis. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Agriculture, a traditionally important sector of the Indian economy because of its enormous contribution in being the provider of basic source of livelihood to the most of the population in India. However in the recent past various challenges such as low agricultural yield, declining share of public investment, and lack of technological advancements have plagued the sector. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output. In the Special Article, we discuss India's deteriorating external position in the last few years, manifesting itself in a steady deterioration in the current account which slipped from a surplus at the start of the last decade to a huge deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Bulk of the deterioration in current account is attributable to the sharp rise in merchandise trade deficit over the last decade. Ultimately, for India to contain its current account deficit at a more sustainable level of 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP, it is essential that we ensure competitiveness of our goods and services, so that our imports are contained and exports boosted.
Over the last two decades, South Africa has made notable strides in moving away from the legacy of its apartheid
past and in consolidating the institutions and practices of democracy.
Doing Business, South Africa measures business regulations and their enforcement in 9 urban areas and 4 major ports.
Strategie di internazionalizzazione: differenti approcci per differenti mercati
strategie, internazionalizzazione, mercati esteri, contratti, società, joint ventures, arbitrato, mediazione, agenzia, condizioni generali di vendita
While Polish government has started legislative works aimed at introduction of new type of sp. z o.o. to be incorporate with only PLN 1 (=0,24 € and =0,30 USD) as my Colleague Michał Żołubak advised me, here is an interesting reading: 'Why are minimum capital requirements a concern for entrepreneurs?'

From PWC, Investing in Poland contains information on macroeconomic conditions and outlook for Poland, as well as key data, analysis and contact details for all 16 of Poland's voivodships and all of its major cities.
International Standard Banking Practice - ISBP 745 is the most up to date, comprehensive guide to handling and examining trade documents under documentary credits.
ISBP 745 details how to apply banking practices under UCP600 to various trade documents (invoices, transport documents, bills of lading, certificates of origin…)
The world’s dominant commercial real estate markets have moved into 2014 in better shape than at any time since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009.
Capital markets are exhibiting remarkable strength and the disconnect, that has emerged over the past two years between a more cautious occupational market, is showing signs of narrowing.
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...dylandmeas
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey through Full Sail University. Below, you’ll find a collection of my work showcasing my skills and expertise in digital marketing, event planning, and media production.
Memorandum Of Association Constitution of Company.pptseri bangash
www.seribangash.com
A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
Contents of Memorandum of Association:
Name Clause: This clause states the name of the company, which should end with words like "Limited" or "Ltd." for a public limited company and "Private Limited" or "Pvt. Ltd." for a private limited company.
https://seribangash.com/article-of-association-is-legal-doc-of-company/
Registered Office Clause: It specifies the location where the company's registered office is situated. This office is where all official communications and notices are sent.
Objective Clause: This clause delineates the main objectives for which the company is formed. It's important to define these objectives clearly, as the company cannot undertake activities beyond those mentioned in this clause.
www.seribangash.com
Liability Clause: It outlines the extent of liability of the company's members. In the case of companies limited by shares, the liability of members is limited to the amount unpaid on their shares. For companies limited by guarantee, members' liability is limited to the amount they undertake to contribute if the company is wound up.
https://seribangash.com/promotors-is-person-conceived-formation-company/
Capital Clause: This clause specifies the authorized capital of the company, i.e., the maximum amount of share capital the company is authorized to issue. It also mentions the division of this capital into shares and their respective nominal value.
Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
Importance of Memorandum of Association:
Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
https://seribangash.com/difference-public-and-private-company-law/
Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
Amendment of MOA:
While the MOA lays down the company's fundamental principles, it is not entirely immutable. It can be amended, but only under specific circumstances and in compliance with legal procedures. Amendments typically require shareholder
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
What is Enterprise Excellence?
Enterprise Excellence is a holistic approach that's aimed at achieving world-class performance across all aspects of the organization.
What might I learn?
A way to engage all in creating Inclusive Excellence. Lessons from the US military and their parallels to the story of Harry Potter. How belt systems and CI teams can destroy inclusive practices. How leadership language invites people to the party. There are three things leaders can do to engage everyone every day: maximizing psychological safety to create environments where folks learn, contribute, and challenge the status quo.
Who might benefit? Anyone and everyone leading folks from the shop floor to top floor.
Dr. William Harvey is a seasoned Operations Leader with extensive experience in chemical processing, manufacturing, and operations management. At Michelman, he currently oversees multiple sites, leading teams in strategic planning and coaching/practicing continuous improvement. William is set to start his eighth year of teaching at the University of Cincinnati where he teaches marketing, finance, and management. William holds various certifications in change management, quality, leadership, operational excellence, team building, and DiSC, among others.
Attending a job Interview for B1 and B2 Englsih learnersErika906060
It is a sample of an interview for a business english class for pre-intermediate and intermediate english students with emphasis on the speking ability.
Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBen Wann
This insightful presentation is designed to equip entrepreneurs with the essential knowledge and tools needed to accurately value their businesses. Understanding business valuation is crucial for making informed decisions, whether you're seeking investment, planning to sell, or simply want to gauge your company's worth.
Remote sensing and monitoring are changing the mining industry for the better. These are providing innovative solutions to long-standing challenges. Those related to exploration, extraction, and overall environmental management by mining technology companies Odisha. These technologies make use of satellite imaging, aerial photography and sensors to collect data that might be inaccessible or from hazardous locations. With the use of this technology, mining operations are becoming increasingly efficient. Let us gain more insight into the key aspects associated with remote sensing and monitoring when it comes to mining.
"𝑩𝑬𝑮𝑼𝑵 𝑾𝑰𝑻𝑯 𝑻𝑱 𝑰𝑺 𝑯𝑨𝑳𝑭 𝑫𝑶𝑵𝑬"
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 (𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬) is a professional event agency that includes experts in the event-organizing market in Vietnam, Korea, and ASEAN countries. We provide unlimited types of events from Music concerts, Fan meetings, and Culture festivals to Corporate events, Internal company events, Golf tournaments, MICE events, and Exhibitions.
𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 provides unlimited package services including such as Event organizing, Event planning, Event production, Manpower, PR marketing, Design 2D/3D, VIP protocols, Interpreter agency, etc.
Sports events - Golf competitions/billiards competitions/company sports events: dynamic and challenging
⭐ 𝐅𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬:
➢ 2024 BAEKHYUN [Lonsdaleite] IN HO CHI MINH
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➢FreenBecky 1st Fan Meeting in Vietnam
➢CHILDREN ART EXHIBITION 2024: BEYOND BARRIERS
➢ WOW K-Music Festival 2023
➢ Winner [CROSS] Tour in HCM
➢ Super Show 9 in HCM with Super Junior
➢ HCMC - Gyeongsangbuk-do Culture and Tourism Festival
➢ Korean Vietnam Partnership - Fair with LG
➢ Korean President visits Samsung Electronics R&D Center
➢ Vietnam Food Expo with Lotte Wellfood
"𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲, 𝐚 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐣𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐲. 𝐖𝐞 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐚 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬."
Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
In this comprehensive presentation, we will explore strategies and practical tips for enhancing profitability in small businesses. Tailored to meet the unique challenges faced by small enterprises, this session covers various aspects that directly impact the bottom line. Attendees will learn how to optimize operational efficiency, manage expenses, and increase revenue through innovative marketing and customer engagement techniques.
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5 Things You Need To Know Before Hiring a Videographer
Is the tide rising?
1. Is the Tide Rising?
Global activity strengthened during the second half of 2013, as anticipated in the October 2013 World Economic
Outlook (WEO). Activity is expected to improve further in 2014–15, largely on account of recovery in the
advanced economies. Global growth is now projected to be slightly higher in 2014, at around 3.7 percent, rising
to 3.9 percent in 2015, a broadly unchanged outlook from the October 2013 WEO. But downward revisions to
growth forecasts in some economies highlight continued fragilities, and downside risks remain. In advanced
economies, output gaps generally remain large and, given the risks, the monetary policy stance should stay
accommodative while fiscal consolidation continues. In many emerging market and developing economies,
stronger external demand from advanced economies will lift growth, although domestic weaknesses remain a
concern. Some economies may have room for monetary policy support. In many others, output is close to
potential, suggesting that growth declines partly reflect structural factors or a cyclical cooling and that the main
policy approach for raising growth must be to push ahead with structural reform. In some economies, there is a
need to manage vulnerabilities associated with weakening credit quality and larger capital outflows.
Global activity and world trade picked up in the
second half of 2013. Recent data even suggest that
global growth during this period was somewhat
stronger than anticipated in the October 2013 WEO.
Final demand in advanced economies expanded
broadly as expected—much of the upward surprise in
growth is due to higher inventory demand. In
emerging market economies, an export rebound was
the main driver behind better activity, while domestic
demand generally remained subdued, except in China.
Financial conditions in advanced economies have
eased since the release of the October 2013 WEO—
with little change since the announcement by the U.S.
Federal Reserve on December 18 that it will begin
tapering its quantitative easing measures this month.
This includes further declines in risk premiums on
government debt of crisis-hit euro area economies. In
emerging market economies, however, financial
conditions have remained tighter following the
surprise U.S. tapering announcements in May 2013,
notwithstanding fairly resilient capital flows. Equity
prices have not fully recovered, many sovereign bond
yields have edged up, and some currencies have been
under pressure.
Turning to projections, growth in the United States
is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2014, up from
1.9 percent in 2013. Following upward surprises to
inventories in the second half of 2013, the pickup in
2014 will be carried by final domestic demand,
supported in part by a reduction in the fiscal drag as a
result of the recent budget agreement. But the latter
also implies a tighter projected fiscal stance in 2015
(as the recent budget agreement implies that most of
the sequester cuts will remain in place in FY2015,
instead of being reversed as assumed in the October
2013 WEO), and growth is now projected at 3 percent
for 2015 (3.4 percent in October 2013).
The euro area is turning the corner from recession to
recovery. Growth is projected to strengthen to
1 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015, but the
recovery will be uneven. The pickup will generally be
more modest in economies under stress, despite some
upward revisions including Spain. High debt, both
public and private, and financial fragmentation will
hold back domestic demand, while exports should
further contribute to growth. Elsewhere in Europe,
activity in the United Kingdom has been buoyed by
easier credit conditions and increased confidence.
Growth is expected to average 2¼ percent in 2014–15,
but economic slack will remain high.
FOR RELEASE: STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
In Washington, D.C. (EST): 9:30 a.m., January 21, 2014 UNTIL RELEASED
–5
0
5
10
15
20
2010 11 12 13 Nov.
13
Sources: Markit Economics, Haver Analytics andCPBWorldTradeMonitor.
Figure 1. WorldTrade Volumes, Industrial Productionand
ManufacturingPMI
(Three-monthmovingaverage, annualized percent change)
Industrial Production
WorldTradeVolumes
ManufacturingPMI (∆50, 3mma)
2. 2 WEO Update, January 2014
In Japan, growth is now expected to slow more
gradually compared with October 2013 WEO
projections. Temporary fiscal stimulus should partly
offset the drag from the consumption tax increase in
early 2014. As a result, annual growth is expected to
remain broadly unchanged at 1.7 percent in 2014, given
carryover effects, before moderating to 1 percent in
2015.
Overall, growth in emerging market and developing
economies is expected to increase to 5.1 percent in
2014 and to 5.4 percent in 2015. Growth in China
rebounded strongly in the second half of 2013, due
largely to an acceleration in investment. This surge is
expected to be temporary, in part because of policy
measures aimed at slowing credit growth and raising
the cost of capital. Growth is thus expected to moderate
slightly to around 7½ percent in 2014–15. Growth in
India picked up after a favorable monsoon season and
higher export growth and is expected to firm further on
stronger structural policies supporting investment.
Many other emerging market and developing
economies have started to benefit from stronger
external demand in advanced economies and China. In
many, however, domestic demand has remained weaker
than expected. This reflects to varying degrees, tighter
financial conditions and policy stances since mid-2013,
as well as policy or political uncertainty and
bottlenecks, with the latter weighing on investment in
particular. As a result, growth in 2013 or 2014 has been
revised downward compared to the October 2013 WEO
forecasts, including in Brazil and Russia. Downward
Estimates
2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
World Output 1/ 3.1 3.0 3.7 3.9 0.1 0.0 3.3 3.6 3.8
Advanced Economies 1.4 1.3 2.2 2.3 0.2 –0.2 2.0 2.1 2.3
United States 2.8 1.9 2.8 3.0 0.2 –0.4 2.5 2.8 3.0
Euro Area –0.7 –0.4 1.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5
Germany 0.9 0.5 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.1 1.6 1.3 1.4
France 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.6
Italy –2.5 –1.8 0.6 1.1 –0.1 0.1 –0.8 1.0 1.2
Spain –1.6 –1.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 –0.2 0.7 0.9
Japan 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.4 –0.2 3.1 0.9 0.6
United Kingdom 0.3 1.7 2.4 2.2 0.6 0.2 2.3 2.7 1.8
Canada 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.4 0.1 –0.1 2.2 2.3 2.4
Other Advanced Economies 1.9 2.2 3.0 3.2 –0.1 –0.1 2.7 2.9 3.4
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 1/ 4.9 4.7 5.1 5.4 0.0 0.1 4.8 5.4 5.6
Central and Eastern Europe 1.4 2.5 2.8 3.1 0.1 –0.2 2.9 3.7 2.8
Commonwealth of Independent States 3.4 2.1 2.6 3.1 –0.8 –0.7 2.2 1.4 3.1
Russia 3.4 1.5 2.0 2.5 –1.0 –1.0 1.9 1.5 3.2
Excluding Russia 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.3 –0.1 –0.1 . . . . . . . . .
Developing Asia 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 0.2 0.2 6.4 6.8 7.0
China 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.3 0.3 0.2 7.8 7.6 7.3
India 2/ 3.2 4.4 5.4 6.4 0.2 0.1 4.6 5.5 7.0
ASEAN-5 3/ 6.2 5.0 5.1 5.6 –0.3 0.0 4.0 5.6 5.6
Latin America and the Caribbean 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.3 –0.1 –0.2 1.6 3.4 2.8
Brazil 1.0 2.3 2.3 2.8 –0.2 –0.4 1.9 2.6 3.0
Mexico 3.7 1.2 3.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.2 3.3
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 4.1 2.4 3.3 4.8 –0.3 0.7 . . . . . . . . .
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.8 5.1 6.1 5.8 0.1 0.1 . . . . . . . . .
South Africa 2.5 1.8 2.8 3.3 –0.1 0.0 1.9 3.2 3.3
Memorandum
World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 2.5 2.4 3.1 3.4 0.1 –0.1 2.8 3.0 3.2
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 2.7 2.7 4.5 5.2 –0.5 –0.3 . . . . . . . . .
Imports (goods and services)
Advanced Economies 1.0 1.4 3.4 4.1 –0.7 –0.5 . . . . . . . . .
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 5.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 0.0 –0.2 . . . . . . . . .
Commodity Prices (U.S. dollars)
Oil 4/ 1.0 –0.9 –0.3 –5.2 2.8 0.8 2.7 –2.7 –5.3
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity export weights) –10.0 –1.5 –6.1 –2.4 –2.0 –0.3 –3.8 –4.6 –1.8
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 –0.1 0.0 1.3 1.9 1.7
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 1/ 6.0 6.1 5.6 5.3 0.0 0.1 5.7 5.1 4.8
London Interbank Offered Rate (percent)
On U.S. Dollar Deposits (6 month) 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 –0.2 –0.3 . . . . . . . . .
On Euro Deposits (3 month) 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 –0.2 –0.4 . . . . . . . . .
On Japanese Yen Deposits (6 month) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 –0.2 . . . . . . . . .
Q4 over Q4
Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during November 11–December 9, 2013. When economies are not listed
alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
1/ The quarterly data and projections account for 90 percent of the world ppp weights and around 80 percent of the emerging market and developing economies.
2/ For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at
factor cost are 4.6, 5.4, and 6.4 percent for 2013, 2014, and 2015, respectively.
3/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
4/ Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $104.11 in 2013;
the assumed price based on futures markets is $103.84 in 2014 and $98.47 in 2015.
Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
Projections Projections
Year over Year
(Percent change unless noted otherwise)
Difference from October
2013 WEO Published
3. 3 WEO Update, January 2014
revisions to growth in 2014 in the Middle East and
North Africa region, and upward revisions in 2015,
mainly reflect expectations that the rebound in oil
output in Libya after outages in 2013 will proceed at a
slower pace.
In sum, global growth is projected to increase from
3 percent in 2013 to 3.7 percent in 2014 and 3.9 percent
in 2015.
Not yet out of the woods
Turning to risks to the forecast, downside risks—old
ones discussed in the October 2013 WEO and new
ones—remain. Among new ones, risks to activity
associated with very low inflation in advanced
economies, especially the euro area, have come to the
fore. With inflation likely to remain below target for
some time, longer-term inflation expectations might
drift down. This raises the risks of lower-than-expected
inflation, which increases real debt burdens, and of
premature real interest rate increases, as monetary
policy is constrained in lowering nominal interest rates.
It also raises the likelihood of deflation in the event of
adverse shocks to activity.
Downside risks to financial stability persist. Corporate
leverage has risen, accompanied in many emerging
market economies by increased exposures to foreign
currency liabilities. In a number of markets, including
several emerging markets, asset valuations could come
under pressure if interest rates rose more than expected
and adversely affected investor sentiment.
In emerging market economies, increased financial
market and capital flow volatility remain a concern
given that the Fed will start tapering in early 2014. The
responses to the related December announcement have
been relatively muted in most economies, possibly
helped by the Fed’s policy communication and re-
calibration (including revisions to forward guidance).
Nevertheless, portfolio shifts and some capital outflows
are likely with Fed tapering. When combined with
domestic weaknesses, the result could be sharper capital
outflows and exchange rate adjustments.
Turning to policies, ensuring robust growth and
managing vulnerabilities remain global priorities
despite the expected strengthening of activity.
In advanced economies, policy priorities remain
broadly those discussed in the October 2013 WEO.
With prospects improving, however, it will be critical to
avoid a premature withdrawal of monetary policy
accommodation, including in the United States, as
output gaps are still large while inflation is low and
fiscal consolidation continues. Stronger growth is
needed to complete balance sheet repair after the crisis
and to lower related legacy risks. In the euro area, the
European Central Bank (ECB) will need to consider
additional measures toward this end. Measures such as
longer-term liquidity provision, including targeted
lending, would strengthen demand and reduce financial
market fragmentation. Repairing bank balance sheets
through the Balance Sheet Assessment exercise and
recapitalizing weak banks and completing the Banking
Union by unifying both supervision and crisis
resolution will be essential for confidence to improve,
for credit to revive, and to sever the link between
sovereigns and banks. More structural reforms are
needed to lift investment and prospects.
In emerging market and developing economies,
recent developments highlight the need to manage the
risks of potential capital flow reversals. Economies with
domestic weaknesses and partly related external current
account deficits appear particularly exposed. Exchange
rates should be allowed to depreciate in response to
deteriorating external funding conditions. When there
are constraints on exchange rate adjustment —because
of balance sheet mismatches and other financial
fragilities, or large pass-through to inflation because of
monetary policy frameworks that lack transparency or
consistency in their implementation— policymakers
might need to consider a combination of tightening
macroeconomic policies and stronger regulatory and
supervisory policy efforts. In China, the recent rebound
highlights that investment remains the key driver in
growth dynamics. More progress is required on
rebalancing domestic demand from investment to
consumption to effectively contain the risks to growth
and financial stability from overinvestment.
–2
–1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2011 12 13 14:
Q4
Source: IMFstaff estimates.
Figure 2. Global GDPGrowth
(Percent; quarter over quarter, annualized)
Advancedeconomies
Emergingmarket anddevelopingeconomies
World