The document provides an overview of recent economic and financial market performance from May 12th. It summarizes that bond yields rose globally but equity markets performed well. US GDP growth slowed significantly in Q1 but surveys still point to strength. Eurozone growth forecasts were upgraded with Spain seeing the largest rise. Chinese data still shows weakening and further rate cuts. The Fed is still expected to raise rates this year if the US economy improves as surveys indicate.

1. 1 of 8
Financial markets
Most of the excitement since the last Market Review was in
the Bond Market as ten year yields across the globe rose by
30bps - 40bps although this was from extremely low levels.
Equity Markets performed reasonably well in this background,
the FT World Index is up 1.6%. Commodities have staged a strong
recovery with oil leading the way but the US Dollar reversed
over the period. The UK election was a pleasant surprise and
did bolster sterling assets.
Economic Data
The US Q1 GDP caught the most attention as it showed the
economy slowing to an annualised growth rate of 0.2%. There
were some temporary impacts but the strong US Dollar and
reduced energy investment are factors which will stay with us.
There will be on-going discussion about whether this is a ‘soft
patch’ in the economy or whether it will be a longer lasting
deceleration. Indicators released for April (non-Farm Payrolls,
ISM’s) do suggest that the economy is accelerating as we go
into the second quarter.
We had another upgrade to economic growth forecasts in the
euro area. The EU Commission now expects the economy to grow
by 1.5% in 2015. Spain saw the largest upgrade and Greece saw
a significant cut to forecasts putting further pressure on all sides
to get an agreement from the current negotiations.
The data from China still paints a weakening picture and the
Peoples Bank of China has responded again by a further cut in
interest rates. There is still no sign of the economy stabilising
and thus the forecast of 7% growth remains under threat.
Equity Markets
The leadership in equity markets moved from the euro area to
the China centric Emerging Markets. The lack of agreement in
the Greek negotiations is weighing on the euro area and further
monetary stimulus from China is boosting Emerging Markets.
We would not follow these particular trends.
Bond Markets
There was a sharp reversal in bond markets since the last
Review however we would point out that bond markets had
been extremely strong with 10 year yields in some countries
moving into negative territory. It was hard to justify this given
the economic outlook. The impact of the QE in the euro area
was a positive but it did seem that bond markets had moved
into ‘irrational’ territory. We view the reversal of bond markets
as a measure of sanity returning to the market rather than any
deterioration in the economic fundamentals.
Goodbody view
We would expect to see more signs that the US economy
has passed its worst and that there will be an agreement
between the EU and Greece. These developments combined
with easier monetary policy across the globe should drive
equity markets higher.
12 May 2015
Market Review
Equity market performance
Last Since last
review
MTD YTD
FT World (local) 273.01 1.2% 0.6% 6.6%
FT World (euros) 297.31 0.1% 0.6% 13.7%
Iseq 6224.12 3.3% 2.9% 19.1%
FT 100 7079.45 3.6% 1.7% 7.8%
Euro Stoxx 373.71 -1.7% 0.6% 16.9%
S&P500 2116.10 1.7% 1.5% 2.8%
MSCI Pacific Basin 502.65 1.9% -2.1% 7.6%
Topix 1598.33 1.3% 0.3% 13.6%
MSCI Emerging
Markets (local)
52822.14 2.7% -1.0% 9.2%
MSCI Emerging
Markets (US$)
1034.94 2.9% -1.2% 8.2%
Other indices
MSCI World small cap
(US$)
332.57 -0.4% 0.9% 7.0%
MSCI Irel. small cap 962.20 0.2% 1.9% 27.5%
MSCI UK small cap 359.40 4.3% 3.0% 12.4%
MSCI EMU small cap 345.19 0.2% 1.2% 22.6%
MSCI US small cap 525.52 -1.4% 1.2% 3.8%
Commodites
Brent 65.68 14.6% -1.6% 14.6%
Lmex London
metals index
2932.50 6.4% -0.2% 0.6%
Rogers Int’l
commodity
2741.36 4.3% -0.1% -0.3%
Bond markets (10 year yields)
Euro area 0.56 0.18 0.54
UK 1.90 1.59 1.76
US 2.15 1.89 2.17
Currencies
Dollar 1.116 1.093 1.21
Sterling 0.724 0.734 0.78
Source: Bloomberg

2. 2 of 8
Goodbody Market Review
Payrolls bounce back in April
After a weak March, employment growth bounced back
somewhat in April, with 223,000 jobs added (85,000 in March).
The unemployment rate also edged downwards to 5.4%, the
lowest in seven years. The recovery in the labour market is thus
continuing. This has not been in doubt. The doubts have been
around whether the recovery has been sufficient to trigger an
increase in wage growth. In this regard, the evidence is not yet
conclusive despite some upward pressure. In the latest payroll
data, hourly wages increased by just 0.1% mom, with the annual
rate at 2.2%. Annual growth in hourly earnings has been hovering
in and around this rate for some time. However, one must not be
overly complacent about wages. The broader Employment
Cost Index, a preferred indicator of the Fed, has ticked up over
recent quarters. In Q1, annual growth in compensation stood at
2.6%, its highest level since 2008. With the unemployment rate
continuing to trend lower, upward pressure will remain. A Fed
rate hike is still likely later this year in our view.
Euro area
Forecast upgrades from the European Commission
The European Commission published its Spring Economic
forecasts last week. In line with the change in consensus forecasts
over recent weeks, forecasts were upgraded with GDP now
expected to expand by 1.5% is now expected in the euro area in
2015, up from its previous estimate of 1.3%.
Economic Review
A soft patch?
In the last market review, we discussed the likelihood of a weaker
than expected Q1 GDP reading given the rather soft batch of
US data over the opening months of the year. This weakness
was confirmed last week, with annualised growth of just 0.2%
registered. Although there were some one-off issues, the
slowdown was pretty broad. Net exports were the major drag
in the quarter, knocking 1.3% off the annualised growth out-turn.
Investment was also weak, although was affected by port
closures and weather in the quarter. Consumption grew at
a slower pace too (1.9% versus 4.4% in Q4 2014). Is this just
a temporary blip or something that could have longer-term
implications? Soft patches are, after all, a regular occurrence
in the course of economic recoveries.
We would not be overly concerned that the US recovery
has suddenly stalled. However, there is likely to be further
downward momentum to short-term economic growth forecasts.
Inventories, which added to growth in Q1, could reverse over
the coming quarters. Since the Q1 data was released, the trade
deficit for March came in significantly worse than expectations,
meaning that Q1 GDP could be revised down even further.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, which correctly predicted
the Q1 result, is currently forecasting Q2 growth of just 0.8%.
Consensus GDP forecasts for the full-year 2015 now stand at
2.8%. A further reassessment of this forecast is likely over the
coming months, with the soft-patch debate set to rumble on.
In contrast to the hard data, the survey evidence on the US
economy continues to point to strength. In April, the services
ISM rose to 57.8 (up from 56.5 in March), the highest level since
November 2014. Within the details, the two most important
components – new orders (59.2) and employment (56.7) remain
well in expansionary territory. The manufacturing sector has been
somewhat weaker, with the ISM remaining at 51.5 in April. Within
this the employment component fell into contractionary territory
(48.3) while new orders are modestly in expansion. The weaker
manufacturing sector (51.5) may be a reflection of the stronger
dollar over recent months.
ISM surveys
Source: Factset
ISM Surveys
Employment New Orders Prices Paid Exports
Manuf
Non-
Manuf Manuf
Non-
Manuf Manuf
Non-
Manuf Manuf
Non-
Manuf Manuf
Non-
Manuf
30/05/2014 55.6 56.1 53.5 53.2 58.7 59.9 60 60.2 56.5 53
30/06/2014 55.7 56.3 53.9 54.5 59.1 60.4 58 60.1 54.5 55
31/07/2014 56.4 57.9 56.3 56.1 62 62.6 59.5 60 53 53
29/08/2014 58.1 58.6 57.4 56.6 63.9 62.1 58 57.3 55 52.5
30/09/2014 56.1 58.1 54.6 57.8 59.4 60.5 59.5 55.2 53.5 57.5
31/10/2014 57.9 56.9 55.2 58.3 63 59.3 53.5 52.8 51.5 53.5
28/11/2014 57.6 58.8 54.6 56.3 62.1 61 44.5 55 55 57
31/12/2014 55.1 56.2 56 55.7 57.8 59.2 38.5 49.8 52 53.5
30/01/2015 53.5 56.7 54.1 51.6 52.9 59.5 35 45.5 49.5 52.5
27/02/2015 52.9 56.9 51.4 56.4 52.5 56.7 35 49.7 48.5 53
31/03/2015 51.5 56.5 50 56.6 51.8 57.8 39 52.4 47.5 59
30/04/2015 51.5 57.8 48.3 56.7 53.5 59.2 40.5 50.1 51.5 48.5
Source: FactSet
Composite
US unemployment rate
Source: Datastream
ISM Surveys
Employment New Orders Prices Paid Exports
Manuf
Non-
Manuf Manuf
Non-
Manuf Manuf
Non-
Manuf Manuf
Non-
Manuf Manuf
Non-
Manuf
30/05/2014 55.6 56.1 53.5 53.2 58.7 59.9 60 60.2 56.5 53
30/06/2014 55.7 56.3 53.9 54.5 59.1 60.4 58 60.1 54.5 55
31/07/2014 56.4 57.9 56.3 56.1 62 62.6 59.5 60 53 53
29/08/2014 58.1 58.6 57.4 56.6 63.9 62.1 58 57.3 55 52.5
30/09/2014 56.1 58.1 54.6 57.8 59.4 60.5 59.5 55.2 53.5 57.5
31/10/2014 57.9 56.9 55.2 58.3 63 59.3 53.5 52.8 51.5 53.5
28/11/2014 57.6 58.8 54.6 56.3 62.1 61 44.5 55 55 57
31/12/2014 55.1 56.2 56 55.7 57.8 59.2 38.5 49.8 52 53.5
30/01/2015 53.5 56.7 54.1 51.6 52.9 59.5 35 45.5 49.5 52.5
27/02/2015 52.9 56.9 51.4 56.4 52.5 56.7 35 49.7 48.5 53
31/03/2015 51.5 56.5 50 56.6 51.8 57.8 39 52.4 47.5 59
30/04/2015 51.5 57.8 48.3 56.7 53.5 59.2 40.5 50.1 51.5 48.5
Source: FactSet
Composite
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
May
75
Feb
77
Nov
78
Aug
80
May
82
Feb
84
Nov
85
Aug
87
May
89
Feb
91
Nov
92
Aug
94
May
96
Feb
98
Nov
99
Aug
01
May
03
Feb
05
Nov
06
Aug
08
May
10
Feb
12
Nov
13
%
Source: Datastream
US unemployment rate

3. 3 of 8
Goodbody Market Review
UK consumers continue to benefit from falling prices and
positive labour market trends
UK retail sales continued to grow at a strong pace in March
with the official sales data showing that ex-fuel volumes (core)
accelerated to 5% yoy from 4.8% yoy in February. Three of
the four main store types (except petrol stations) saw volume
increases as average store prices fell for the 9th consecutive
month. This fall in prices means that on a value basis core sales
rose by a slower 2.6% yoy. The UK consumer has been benefiting
from a rise in real incomes since the final quarter of last year.
This has been mainly driven by slowing inflation (0% in March)
but earnings trends have also started to improve again. After
slowing to 1.6% in the three months to January core (ex-bonus)
average weekly earnings rose by 1.8% yoy in February,
matching the rate seen in November. The unemployment rate
also eased further to 5.6%, from 5.7% in February, while the
employment rate is running at its highest level on record.
Housing market remains stable but muted
While BoE mortgage approvals for March were marginally
disappointing, falling marginally to 61.3K from 61.5K, they
point to stability in the market which is also reflected in the
February transaction data which remained at 101K for the
second consecutive month. House prices look on course to put
in a modest recovery with the RICs rising to a five month high in
March. However, uncertainty ahead of the general election most
likely weighed on activity with both New Buyers Enquiries (-2)
and New Instructions (-9) slowing.
Ireland and Malta (3.6%) are now expected to be the fastest-
growing economies in the euro area in 2015. Among the larger
economies, Spanish growth prospects have been increased most
notably (from 2.3% to 2.8%), while Germany is now expected
to grow by 1.9% this year (previously 1.5%). French (1.1%) and
Italian (0.6%) forecasts remain relatively unchanged, with their
respective economic recoveries remaining relatively tepid.
Doubts about Greece debt sustainability remain, amongst
other things!
The biggest downgrade by far was for Greece, where growth of
just 0.5% is now expected in 2015. This downgrade has knock-on
implications for its deficit and debt and is likely to be the main
take-away from today’s release. The Greek budget deficit is now
expected at -2.1% of GDP in 2015; a surplus of 1.1% of GDP was
expected previously. Within this, a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP
is expected (4.8% previously), but this is also likely to be overly
optimistic, with the FT reporting that there could be a primary
deficit again this year. Crucially, the debt level is now expected
to rise to 180% of GDP this year, up from its previous estimate of
170%. This will undoubtedly trigger calls for further debt relief,
although it must be noted that the interest burden on this debt is
relatively low at 4.2%. Meanwhile, the more immediate concern
continues to be how the country can fund itself beyond the next
few weeks. This week’s discussions between euro area finance
ministers will be crucial in this regard.
UK
UK election delivers an unexpectedly definitive result
Against the odds, the Conservatives succeeded in winning an
overall majority in the general election. This is a much clearer
result than any of the polls indicated ahead of the election and
removes the near term uncertainty risk associated with a hung
parliament and the spectrum of protracted negotiations. It also
means that fears over the stability of the new government have
receded. However, questions over Scotland’s place in the Union
and EU membership have the potential to be destabilising in the
medium term.
RICS rises to 5 month high
Source: Factset
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
Mar 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15
Balance
Balance
RICS rises to 5 month high
Source: Factset
PMIs indicated stronger Q1 performance
European Commission Forcasts
Source: European Commission
0.0
2.0
May
75
Feb
77
Nov
78
Aug
80
May
82
Feb
84
Nov
85
Aug
87
May
89
Feb
91
Nov
92
Aug
94
May
96
Feb
98
Nov
99
Aug
01
May
03
Feb
05
Nov
06
Aug
08
May
10
Feb
12
Nov
13
Source: Datastream

4. 4 of 8
Goodbody Market Review
Q1 GDP disappoints
UK GDP disappointed in Q1 rising by 0.3% qoq versus 0.5% qoq
expected and 0.6% qoq in Q4 2014. On a yoy basis it slowed
to 2.4% from 3% yoy in Q4, missing expectations of a 2.6% yoy
increase. This is the first estimate of Q1 GDP and its shows that
the services sector was the only area to see an increase in output
on a quarterly basis with the other three main industrial grouping
all decreasing. Construction is the only area to be negative on
a yoy basis. Overall the UK economy is still moving in the right
direction with GDP now 4% higher than its pre-downturn peak
in Q1 2008 but the reading for Q1 is disappointing particularly as
PMIs pointed to a stronger outturn.
PMIs indicated stronger Q1 performance
Source: Bloomberg, ONS
-50
-30
Mar 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15
Balance
Source: Factset
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15
CompositePMI
PMIs indicated stronger Q1 performance
Source: Bloomberg, ONS
Composite PMI
QoQ GDP

5. 5 of 8
Goodbody Market Review
Policy
The policy background has improved further since the last Market
Review. China has cut interest rates again and stands ready to
do more should it be needed and this remains a major positive
for the local market. In the US the FMOC minutes revealed little
but if the economy continues to perform in the way it has been
(a moderate expansion but prone to set-backs and inflation
remaining below target) the Fed may not have the confidence to
increase interest rates for some time. Currently we expect this to
happen in Q4 with the risks being it is later. We still believe there
is downside in the US Dollar until the date for the next interest
rate rise starts to shorten again.
Earnings
We are coming to the end of the results season in the US,
85% of companies have reported and it has been a reasonable
quarter. We were nervous that results might be missed due to
the extreme moves in the US Dollar and oil prices or that the
weakness we were seeing in the local economy might come
through. As it has turned out close to 77% of companies have
met or beaten earnings expectations which is slightly above
expectations. Disappointments in the report were the lack of
sales growth against the forecast of 1% growth but this is where
you would see the biggest impact of exchange rate changes,
hedging activity will come through the earnings not necessarily
through sales. The other disappointment was that despite a
stronger first quarter, earnings forecasts for the year were left
unchanged implying earnings over the next three quarters have
been cut. But overall one must be pleased that there was less
damage done than forecasts in the first quarter despite the
turbulence that occurred.
Political Uncertainty
There has been very modest improvement in the political
backdrop. The Greek negotiations are still going on but there has
been some movement with the change of lead negotiator and
signs that the Greeks are looking at ways of getting an agreement
without losing face. Time is now becoming their greatest difficulty
as large bullet payments start this week.
The election result in the UK surprised everyone with the
Conservatives returned with a majority. The prospect of a ‘hung
parliament’ and minority (and potentially unstable governments)
may have swung some voters when it came around to actually
voting. The prospect of a majority government does yield
greater stability than would have been expected and hence it
is unsurprising to see strong rebounds in Sterling and the UK
market. However the opening up of the ‘European question’ is
likely to undermine Sterling on a longer term basis.
Equity Markets
Equity markets continue to ‘grind’ upwards, after rising over 4%
in the first quarter they have put on another 2% in this quarter.
For the Euro based investor this has been disguised by the
recovery in the Euro since the end of March. Leadership has
Equity markets
Equity markets managed to eke out some gains since the last
Market Review, the FT World Index is up just over 1%. Concerns
about the two major economies in the world (China and the US)
along with the protracted negotiations in Greece weighed on
equity markets. They also had to contend with an abrupt sell off
in bonds where 10 year yields rose by close to 0.5% across the
globe, although this was from extremely low levels. Emerging
Markets were the strongest performers as investors weighed
up the opposing influences of weaker growth in China and the
impact of the resultant looser monetary policy. At the moment
the impact of looser policy is winning the day. The stand out
sectors since the last Review are the Commodity Sectors (Energy
and Materials). The oil price is up 16% since the last review and
the Metal Index has risen 6%. All Commodity sectors have been
given a boost from the China effect but oil got an extra impulse
from a much faster than expected reduction in US capacity (part
of the reason behind the weaker US economy in the first quarter).
Growth
The focus over the last month has been on China and the US.
In China the data has remained weak with practically all indicators
coming in worse than expected. While the production and trade
data will be somewhat dependent on economic performance
elsewhere in the world the domestic side of the economy is
also struggling. Retail Sales growth continues to decelerate
although Consumer Sentiment remains buoyant. Economic
forecasts remain under pressure and there is no sign of the
economy stabilising.
In the US the first quarter GDP caught most of the attention and
it was weak. However since the end of March we have seen some
indicators showing some improvement. In particular the non-
Manufacturing ISM, which covers close to 80% of the economy,
is back close to highs and last week’s non-Farm Payrolls number
was close to expectations and indicates a robust labour market.
Hence although there are likely to be some cuts to forecast
growth rates we could be close to the point where the US
economy will be performing in line with expectations.
Sector Performance
Last Since Last
Review
MTD YTD
World Oil and Gas 241.57 3.8% -1.2% 3.8%
World Basic Mats 222.74 2.8% 1.6% 8.9%
World Industrials 205.25 0.5% 0.6% 5.3%
World Consumer Gds 193.95 0.3% 1.2% 9.0%
World Health Care 213.30 0.7% 1.4% 9.5%
World Consumer SVS 202.85 -1.0% 1.0% 4.7%
World Telecom 74.33 1.4% -0.4% 8.2%
World Utilities 119.72 -0.4% 0.2% -1.9%
World Financials 104.98 0.8% 0.9% 5.4%
World Technology 143.57 2.1% 1.0% 4.9%

6. 6 of 8
Goodbody Market Review
Elsewhere we would be more constructive. The euro area still
has the benefit of QE and economic upgrades, the European
Commission has upgraded its forecasts again. It is being held back
by the lack of resolution in the Greek negotiations but we believe
this will be lifted at some stage. While the rising euro is a hurdle
for it in the short term we feel the positives are strong enough to
outweigh this.
We think that the US market will also make progress. The major
negative for the region at the start of the year was the potential
for the Fed to start tightening policy by the middle of the year but
this has now receded and with growth forecasts likely to be reset
in the near term the prospect of a period of respectable growth
with no pressure for the Fed to change course looks set and this
should be a good mixture for the equity market.
Sector Strategy
The last month has not altered our ranking of sectors
dramatically. In the euro area we would still favour domestic
cyclicals over companies with overseas earnings. However as the
US Dollar Euro exchange rate moves towards 1.15 this call will
become more neutral. In the US one should remain defensive
for the moment with an overseas bias so we would expect
Healthcare and Consumer Staples to perform well. Technology
has started to perform better this month and of the cyclical
sectors it is the one we would prefer the most.
passed from the euro area (lack of a conclusion to the Greek
negotiations would be a factor here) and moved to the
Emerging Markets as Chinese monetary policy loosens further.
We would be wary of chasing these trends. Monetary easing
on its own has never been enough to get equity markets moving
up as the US example below shows. You need the added
ingredient of a stabilising economy, not necessarily recovery,
just not deteriorating any more. This is not happening in China
at the moment.
Fed Funds and the US EquityMarket
Source: Bloomberg
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
450
650
850
1,050
1,250
1,450
1,650
1,850
2,050
2,250
Apr-95 Apr-98 Apr-01 Apr-04 Apr-07 Apr-10 Apr-13
%
S&P 500 Fed Funds (RHS)
Fed Funds and the US Equity Market
Source: Bloomberg
Monetrary easing on its
own not enough to push

7. 7 of 8
Goodbody Market Review

8. 8 of 8
Dublin
Ballsbridge Park, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4
T +353 1 667 0400
Cork
City Quarter, Lapps Quay, Cork
T +353 21 427 9266
Galway
19 Eyre Square, Galway
T +353 91 569 744
Kerry
13 Denny Street, Tralee
T +353 66 710 2752
www.goodbody.ie Wealth Management | Corporate Finance | Capital Markets
Prepared by Bernard Swords, Chief Investment Officer
The named author does not hold a position in any of the listed stocks
Produced on 12 May 2015
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